Geology topics

Daniel J. Storm

Publications and source records attributed to Daniel J. Storm.

23 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

USGS2017

Using expert knowledge to incorporate uncertainty in cause-of-death assignments for modeling of cause-specific mortality

Implicit and explicit use of expert knowledge to inform ecological analyses is becoming increasingly common because it often represents the sole source of information in many circumstances. Thus, there is a need to develop statistical methods that explicitly incorporate expert knowledge, and can successfully leverage this information while properly accounting for associated uncertainty during analysis. Studies of cause-specific mortality provide an example of implicit use of expert knowledge when causes-of-death are uncertain and assigned based on the observer's knowledge of the most likely cause. To explicitly incorporate this use of expert knowledge and the associated uncertainty, we developed a statistical model for estimating cause-specific mortality using a data augmentation approach within a Bayesian hierarchical framework. Specifically, for each mortality event, we elicited the observer's belief of cause-of-death by having them specify the probability that the death was due to each potential cause. These probabilities were then used as prior predictive values within our framework. This hierarchical framework permitted a simple and rigorous estimation method that was easily modified to include covariate effects and regularizing terms. Although applied to survival analysis, this method can be extended to any event-time analysis with multiple event types, for which there is uncertainty regarding the true outcome. We conducted simulations to determine how our framework compared to traditional approaches that use expert knowledge implicitly and assume that cause-of-death is specified accurately. Simulation results supported the inclusion of observer uncertainty in cause-of-death assignment in modeling of cause-specific mortality to improve model performance and inference. Finally, we applied the statistical model we developed and a traditional method to cause-specific survival data for white-tailed deer, and compared results. We demonstrate that model selection results changed between the two approaches, and incorporating observer knowledge in cause-of-death increased the variability associated with parameter estimates when compared to the traditional approach. These differences between the two approaches can impact reported results, and therefore, it is critical to explicitly incorporate expert knowledge in statistical methods to ensure rigorous inference.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2016

Chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer: Infection, mortality, and implications for heterogeneous transmission

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal neurodegenerative disease affecting free-ranging and captive cervids that now occurs in 24 U.S. states and two Canadian provinces. Despite the potential threat of CWD to deer populations, little is known about the rates of infection and mortality caused by this disease. We used epidemiological models to estimate the force of infection and disease-associated mortality for white-tailed deer in the Wisconsin and Illinois CWD outbreaks. Models were based on age-prevalence data corrected for bias in aging deer using the tooth wear and replacement method. Both male and female deer in the Illinois outbreak had higher corrected age-specific prevalence with slightly higher female infection than deer in the Wisconsin outbreak. Corrected ages produced more complex models with different infection and mortality parameters than those based on apparent prevalence. We found that adult male deer have a more than threefold higher risk of CWD infection than female deer. Males also had higher disease mortality than female deer. As a result, CWD prevalence was twofold higher in adult males than females. We also evaluated the potential impacts of alternative contact structures on transmission dynamics in Wisconsin deer. Results suggested that transmission of CWD among male deer during the nonbreeding season may be a potential mechanism for producing higher rates of infection and prevalence characteristically found in males. However, alternatives based on high environmental transmission and transmission from females to males during the breeding season may also play a role.

Ecology↗

USGS2014

Estimating ages of white-tailed deer: Age and sex patterns of error using tooth wear-and-replacement and consistency of cementum annuli

The age structure of harvested animals provides the basis for many demographic analyses. Ages of harvested white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) and other ungulates often are estimated by evaluating replacement and wear patterns of teeth, which is subjective and error-prone. Few previous studies however, examined age- and sex-specific error rates. Counting cementum annuli of incisors is an alternative, more accurate method of estimating age, but factors that influence consistency of cementum annuli counts are poorly known. We estimated age of 1,261 adult (≥1.5 yr old) white-tailed deer harvested in Wisconsin and Illinois (USA; 2005–2008) using both wear-and-replacement and cementum annuli. We compared cementum annuli with wear-and-replacement estimates to assess misclassification rates by sex and age. Wear-and-replacement for estimating ages of white-tailed deer resulted in substantial misclassification compared with cementum annuli. Age classes of females were consistently underestimated, while those of males were underestimated for younger age classes but overestimated for older age classes. Misclassification resulted in an impression of a younger age-structure than actually was the case. Additionally, we obtained paired age-estimates from cementum annuli for 295 deer. Consistency of paired cementum annuli age-estimates decreased with age, was lower in females than males, and decreased as age estimates became less certain. Our results indicated that errors in the wear-and-replacement techniques are substantial and could impact demographic analyses that use age-structure information.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

USGS2013

Deer density and disease prevalence influence transmission of Chronic Wasting Disease in White-tailed Deer

Host-parasite dynamics and strategies for managing infectious diseases of wildlife depend on the functional relationship between disease transmission rates and host density. However, the disease transmission function is rarely known for free-living wildlife, leading to uncertainty regarding the impacts of diseases on host populations and effective control actions. We evaluated the influence of deer density, landscape features, and soil clay content on transmission of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in young (<2-year-old) white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) in south-central Wisconsin, USA. We evaluated how frequency-dependent, density-dependent, and intermediate transmission models predicted CWD incidence rates in harvested yearling deer. An intermediate transmission model, incorporating both disease prevalence and density of infected deer, performed better than simple density- and frequency-dependent models. Our results indicate a combination of social structure, non-linear relationships between infectious contact and deer density, and distribution of disease among groups are important factors driving CWD infection in young deer. The landscape covariates % deciduous forest cover and forest edge density also were positively associated with infection rates, but soil clay content had no measurable influences on CWD transmission. Lack of strong density-dependent transmission rates indicates that controlling CWD by reducing deer density will be difficult. The consequences of non-linear disease transmission and aggregation of disease on cervid populations deserves further consideration.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2011

Comparison of visual-based helicopter and fixed-wing forward-looking infrared surveys for counting white-tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus

Aerial surveys using direct counts of animals are commonly used to estimate deer abundance. Forward-looking infrared (FLIR) technology is increasingly replacing traditional methods such as visual observation from helicopters. Our goals were to compare fixed-wing FLIR and visual, helicopter-based counts in terms of relative bias, influence of snow cover and cost. We surveyed five plots: four 41.4 km 2 plots with free-ranging white-tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus populations in Wisconsin and a 5.3 km 2 plot with a white-tailed deer population contained by a high fence in Michigan. We surveyed plots using both fixed-wing FLIR and helicopters, both with snow cover and without snow. None of the methods counted more deer than the other when snow was present. Helicopter counts were lower in the absence of snow, but lack of snow cover did not apparently affect FLIR. Group sizes of observed deer were similar regardless of survey method or season. We found that FLIR counts were generally precise (CV = 0.089) when two or three replicate surveys were conducted within a few hours. However, at the plot level, FLIR counts differed greatly between seasons, suggesting that detection rates vary over larger time scales. Fixed-wing FLIR was more costly than visual observers in helicopters and was more restrictive in terms of acceptable survey conditions. Further research is needed to understand what factors influence the detection of deer during FLIR surveys.

Michigan, Wisconsin↗