Geology topics

Daniel J. Hayes

Publications and source records attributed to Daniel J. Hayes.

15 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

The North American greenhouse gas budget: Emissions, removals, and integration for CO2, CH4, and N2O (2010–2019): Results From the Second REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes Study (RECCAP2)

Accurate accounting of greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions and removals is central to tracking progress toward climate mitigation and for monitoring potential climate-change feedbacks. GHG budgeting and reporting can follow either the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change methodologies for National Greenhouse Gas Inventory (NGHGI) reporting or use atmospheric-based “top-down” (TD) inversions or process-based “bottom-up” (BU) approaches. To help understand and reconcile these approaches, the Second REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes study (RECCAP2) was established to quantify GHG emissions and removals for carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O), for ten-land and five-ocean regions for 2010–2019. Here, we present the results for the North American land region (Canada, the United States, Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean). For 2010–2019, the NGHGI reported total net-GHG emissions of 7,270 TgCO 2 -eq yr −1 compared to TD estimates of 6,132 ± 1,846 TgCO 2 -eq yr −1 and BU estimates of 9,060 ± 898 TgCO 2 -eq yr −1 . Reconciling differences between the NGHGI, TD and BU approaches depended on (a) accounting for lateral fluxes of CO 2 along the land-ocean-aquatic continuum (LOAC) and trade, (b) correcting land-use CO 2 emissions for the loss-of-additional-sink capacity (LASC), (c) avoiding double counting of inland water CH 4 emissions, and (d) adjusting area estimates to match the NGHGI definition of the managed-land proxy. Uncertainties remain from inland-water CO 2 evasion, the conversion of nitrogen fertilizers to N 2 O, and from less-frequent NGHGI reporting from non-Annex-1 countries. The RECCAP2 framework plays a key role in reconciling independent GHG-reporting methodologies to support policy commitments while providing insights into biogeochemical processes and responses to climate change.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles↗

USGS2018

Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change

We conducted a model-based assessment of changes in permafrost area and carbon storage for simulations driven by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections between 2010 and 2299 for the northern permafrost region. All models simulating carbon represented soil with depth, a critical structural feature needed to represent the permafrost carbon–climate feedback, but that is not a universal feature of all climate models. Between 2010 and 2299, simulations indicated losses of permafrost between 3 and 5 million km 2 for the RCP4.5 climate and between 6 and 16 million km 2 for the RCP8.5 climate. For the RCP4.5 projection, cumulative change in soil carbon varied between 66-Pg C (10 15 -g carbon) loss to 70-Pg C gain. For the RCP8.5 projection, losses in soil carbon varied between 74 and 652 Pg C (mean loss, 341 Pg C). For the RCP4.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were largely responsible for the overall projected net gains in ecosystem carbon by 2299 (8- to 244-Pg C gains). In contrast, for the RCP8.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were not great enough to compensate for the losses of carbon projected by four of the five models; changes in ecosystem carbon ranged from a 641-Pg C loss to a 167-Pg C gain (mean, 208-Pg C loss). The models indicate that substantial net losses of ecosystem carbon would not occur until after 2100. This assessment suggests that effective mitigation efforts during the remainder of this century could attenuate the negative consequences of the permafrost carbon–climate feedback.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

USGS2018

The North American carbon budget: Past, present, and future

This chapter nicely summarizes and synthesizes the latest scientific information on the North American carbon budget by incorporating terrestrial, anthropogenic, aquatic, and coastal margin CO 2 and CH 4 dynamics. Starting with a historical context, the chapter summarizes current understanding of the magnitudes and trends of carbon stocks and fluxes at the continental scale. It also provides a regional context by stratifying the continent to countries and climate assessment regions and discusses the societal drivers, impacts, and carbon management decisions. Knowledge gaps and research needs are also identified. This chapter is well-written and clearly organized, and provides a broad context beyond individual chapters. Some of the main ways the chapter can be improved include the following: some work is needed on the Key Findings (discussed below); the goals and objectives should be explicitly described; critical content areas missing from the chapter are interannual variability of carbon fluxes and impacts of severe and extended droughts; indicators and feedbacks are missing from Section 2.4; consistent use of units is recommended; numbers with 3-4 significant digits over-state the confidence the reader should have, and all numbers should include uncertainties. And one broader concern to note: This chapter follows the global overview in Chapter 1, where “sinks” are sinks in the cycle perturbed by anthropogenic CO 2 and CH 4 , and the assumption is that globally, the net unperturbed background sinks are zero summed across all reservoirs. Yet in this chapter, “sinks” are net fluxes out of the atmosphere, background + perturbation. For the coastal ocean, inland waters, etc.—where lateral transport is significant—these sources and sinks include background/pre-industrial fluxes that are balanced by fluxes elsewhere. These distinctions must be made clear so that the reader is not given an impression of a greater or lesser sink for anthropogenic CO 2 than is there (e.g., P74, lines 4-6).

Book chapter↗

USGS2018

Executive summary. In Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR2): A Sustained Assessment Report

Central to life on Earth, carbon is essential to the molecular makeup of all living things and plays a key role in regulating global climate. To understand carbon’s role in these processes, researchers measure and evaluate carbon stocks and fluxes. A stock is the quantity of carbon contained in a pool or reservoir in the Earth system (e.g., carbon in forest trees), and a flux is the direction and rate of carbon’s transfer between pools (e.g., the movement of carbon from the atmosphere into forest trees during photosynthesis). This document, the Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR2), examines the patterns of carbon stocks and fluxes—collectively called the “carbon cycle.” Emphasis is given to these patterns in specific sectors (e.g., agriculture and energy) and ecosystems (e.g., forests and coastal waters) and to the response of the carbon cycle to human activity. The purpose of SOCCR2 is to assess the current state of the North American carbon cycle and to present recent advances in understanding the factors that influence it. Concentrating on North America—Canada, the United States, and Mexico—the report describes carbon cycling for air, land, inland waters (streams, rivers, lakes, and reservoirs), and coastal waters (see Figure ES.1, p. 23). The questions framing the publication A U.S. Carbon Cycle Science Plan (Michalak et al., 2011) inspired development of three slightly modified questions that guide SOCCR2’s content and focus on North America in a global context: How have natural processes and human actions affected the global carbon cycle on land, in the atmosphere, in the ocean and other aquatic systems, and at ecosystem interfaces (e.g., coastal, wetland, and urban-rural)? How have socioeconomic trends affected atmospheric levels of the primary carbon-containing gases, carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4)? How have species, ecosystems, natural resources, and human systems been impacted by increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, associated changes in climate, and carbon management decisions and practices? SOCCR2 synthesizes the most recent understanding of carbon cycling in North America, assessing new carbon cycle findings and information, the state of knowledge regarding core methods used to study the carbon cycle, and future research needed to best inform carbon management and policy options. Focusing on scientific developments in the decade since the First State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR1; CCSP 2007), SOCCR2 summarizes the past, current, and projected state of carbon sources, sinks, and natural processes, as well as contributions by human activities. In addition to CO2 and CH4, the report sometimes discusses nitrous oxide (N2O), a GHG associated with activities and processes that affect fluxes of carbon gases.1 SOCCR2 also describes improvements in analysis tools; developments in decision support; and new insights into ecosystem carbon cycling, human causes of changes in the carbon cycle, and social science perspectives on carbon. Since publication of SOCCR1, coordinated research from agencies in the three North American countries has enabled innovative observational, analytical, and modeling capabilities to further advance understanding of the North American carbon cycle (see Appendix D: Carbon Measurement Approaches and Accounting Frameworks, p. 834). Some of the report’s main conclusions, based on the Key Findings of each chapter, are highlighted in Box ES.1, Main Findings of SOCCR2, p. 24.

Report↗

USGS2017

Contributions of wildland fire to terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics in North America from 1990 to 2012

Burn area and the frequency of extreme fire events have been increasing during recent decades in North America, and this trend is expected to continue over the 21st century. While many aspects of the North American carbon budget have been intensively studied, the net contribution of fire disturbance to the overall net carbon flux at the continental scale remains uncertain. Based on national scale, spatially explicit and long-term fire data, along with the improved model parameterization in a process-based ecosystem model, we simulated the impact of fire disturbance on both direct carbon emissions and net terrestrial ecosystem carbon balance in North America. Fire-caused direct carbon emissions were 106.55 ± 15.98 Tg C/yr during 1990–2012; however, the net ecosystem carbon balance associated with fire was −26.09 ± 5.22 Tg C/yr, indicating that most of the emitted carbon was resequestered by the terrestrial ecosystem. Direct carbon emissions showed an increase in Alaska and Canada during 1990–2012 as compared to prior periods due to more extreme fire events, resulting in a large carbon source from these two regions. Among biomes, the largest carbon source was found to be from the boreal forest, primarily due to large reductions in soil organic matter during, and with slower recovery after, fire events. The interactions between fire and environmental factors reduced the fire-caused ecosystem carbon source. Fire disturbance only caused a weak carbon source as compared to the best estimate terrestrial carbon sink in North America owing to the long-term legacy effects of historical burn area coupled with fast ecosystem recovery during 1990–2012.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles↗

USGS2017

Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region

Realistic projection of future climate-carbon (C) cycle feedbacks requires better understanding and an improved representation of the C cycle in permafrost regions in the current generation of Earth system models. Here we evaluated 10 terrestrial ecosystem models for their estimates of net primary productivity (NPP) and responses to historical climate change in permafrost regions in the Northern Hemisphere. In comparison with the satellite estimate from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS; 246 ± 6 g C m −2 yr −1 ), most models produced higher NPP (309 ± 12 g C m −2 yr −1 ) over the permafrost region during 2000–2009. By comparing the simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) with a flux tower-based database, we found that although mean GPP among the models was only overestimated by 10% over 1982–2009, there was a twofold discrepancy among models (380 to 800 g C m −2 yr −1 ), which mainly resulted from differences in simulated maximum monthly GPP (GPP max ). Most models overestimated C use efficiency (CUE) as compared to observations at both regional and site levels. Further analysis shows that model variability of GPP and CUE are nonlinearly correlated to variability in specific leaf area and the maximum rate of carboxylation by the enzyme Rubisco at 25°C ( V c max_25 ), respectively. The models also varied in their sensitivities of NPP, GPP, and CUE to historical changes in climate and atmospheric CO 2 concentration. These results indicate that model predictive ability of the C cycle in permafrost regions can be improved by better representation of the processes controlling CUE and GPP max as well as their sensitivity to climate change.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences↗

USGS2016

Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009

A significant portion of the large amount of carbon (C) currently stored in soils of the permafrost region in the Northern Hemisphere has the potential to be emitted as the greenhouse gases CO 2 and CH 4 under a warmer climate. In this study we evaluated the variability in the sensitivity of permafrost and C in recent decades among land surface model simulations over the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009. The 15 model simulations all predict a loss of near-surface permafrost (within 3 m) area over the region, but there are large differences in the magnitude of the simulated rates of loss among the models (0.2 to 58.8 × 10 3 km 2 yr −1 ). Sensitivity simulations indicated that changes in air temperature largely explained changes in permafrost area, although interactions among changes in other environmental variables also played a role. All of the models indicate that both vegetation and soil C storage together have increased by 156 to 954 Tg C yr −1 between 1960 and 2009 over the permafrost region even though model analyses indicate that warming alone would decrease soil C storage. Increases in gross primary production (GPP) largely explain the simulated increases in vegetation and soil C. The sensitivity of GPP to increases in atmospheric CO 2 was the dominant cause of increases in GPP across the models, but comparison of simulated GPP trends across the 1982–2009 period with that of a global GPP data set indicates that all of the models overestimate the trend in GPP. Disturbance also appears to be an important factor affecting C storage, as models that consider disturbance had lower increases in C storage than models that did not consider disturbance. To improve the modeling of C in the permafrost region, there is the need for the modeling community to standardize structural representation of permafrost and carbon dynamics among models that are used to evaluate the permafrost C feedback and for the modeling and observational communities to jointly develop data sets and methodologies to more effectively benchmark models.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles↗

USGS2015

Recent Arctic tundra fire initiates widespread thermokarst development

Fire-induced permafrost degradation is well documented in boreal forests, but the role of fires in initiating thermokarst development in Arctic tundra is less well understood. Here we show that Arctic tundra fires may induce widespread thaw subsidence of permafrost terrain in the first seven years following the disturbance. Quantitative analysis of airborne LiDAR data acquired two and seven years post-fire, detected permafrost thaw subsidence across 34% of the burned tundra area studied, compared to less than 1% in similar undisturbed, ice-rich tundra terrain units. The variability in thermokarst development appears to be influenced by the interaction of tundra fire burn severity and near-surface, ground-ice content. Subsidence was greatest in severely burned, ice-rich upland terrain (yedoma), accounting for ~50% of the detected subsidence, despite representing only 30% of the fire disturbed study area. Microtopography increased by 340% in this terrain unit as a result of ice wedge degradation. Increases in the frequency, magnitude, and severity of tundra fires will contribute to future thermokarst development and associated landscape change in Arctic tundra regions.

Alaska↗

USGS2015

Rising methane emissions from northern wetlands associated with sea ice decline

The Arctic is rapidly transitioning toward a seasonal sea ice-free state, perhaps one of the most apparent examples of climate change in the world. This dramatic change has numerous consequences, including a large increase in air temperatures, which in turn may affect terrestrial methane emissions. Nonetheless, terrestrial and marine environments are seldom jointly analyzed. By comparing satellite observations of Arctic sea ice concentrations to methane emissions simulated by three process-based biogeochemical models, this study shows that rising wetland methane emissions are associated with sea ice retreat. Our analyses indicate that simulated high-latitude emissions for 2005–2010 were, on average, 1.7 Tg CH 4  yr −1 higher compared to 1981–1990 due to a sea ice-induced, autumn-focused, warming. Since these results suggest a continued rise in methane emissions with future sea ice decline, observation programs need to include measurements during the autumn to further investigate the impact of this spatial connection on terrestrial methane emissions.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2014

The impacts of recent permafrost thaw on land-atmosphere greenhouse gas exchange

Permafrost thaw and the subsequent mobilization of carbon (C) stored in previously frozen soil organic matter (SOM) have the potential to be a strong positive feedback to climate. As the northern permafrost region experiences as much as a doubling of the rate of warming as the rest of the Earth, the vast amount of C in permafrost soils is vulnerable to thaw, decomposition and release as atmospheric greenhouse gases. Diagnostic and predictive estimates of high-latitude terrestrial C fluxes vary widely among different models depending on how dynamics in permafrost, and the seasonally thawed 'active layer' above it, are represented. Here, we employ a process-based model simulation experiment to assess the net effect of active layer dynamics on this 'permafrost carbon feedback' in recent decades, from 1970 to 2006, over the circumpolar domain of continuous and discontinuous permafrost. Over this time period, the model estimates a mean increase of 6.8 cm in active layer thickness across the domain, which exposes a total of 11.6 Pg C of thawed SOM to decomposition. According to our simulation experiment, mobilization of this previously frozen C results in an estimated cumulative net source of 3.7 Pg C to the atmosphere since 1970 directly tied to active layer dynamics. Enhanced decomposition from the newly exposed SOM accounts for the release of both CO 2 (4.0 Pg C) and CH 4 (0.03 Pg C), but is partially compensated by CO 2 uptake (0.3 Pg C) associated with enhanced net primary production of vegetation. This estimated net C transfer to the atmosphere from permafrost thaw represents a significant factor in the overall ecosystem carbon budget of the Pan-Arctic, and a non-trivial additional contribution on top of the combined fossil fuel emissions from the eight Arctic nations over this time period.

Environmental Research Letters↗

USGS2013

Insights and issues with simulating terrestrial DOC loading of Arctic river networks

Terrestrial carbon dynamics inﬂuence the contribution of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to river networks in addition to hydrology. In this study, we use a biogeochemical process model to simulate the lateral transfer of DOC from land to the Arctic Ocean via riverine transport. We estimate that, over the 20th century, the pan-Arctic watershed has contributed, on average, 32 Tg C/yr of DOC to river networks emptying into the Arctic Ocean with most of the DOC coming from the extensive area of boreal deciduous needle-leaved forests and forested wetlands in Eurasian watersheds. We also estimate that the rate of terrestrial DOC loading has been increasing by 0.037 Tg C/yr2 over the 20th century primarily as a result of climate-induced increases in water yield. These increases have been offset by decreases in terrestrial DOC loading caused by wildﬁres. Other environmental factors (CO2 fertilization, ozone pollution, atmospheric nitrogen deposition, timber harvest, agriculture) are estimated to have relatively small effects on terrestrial DOC loading to Arctic rivers. The effects of the various environmental factors on terrestrial carbon dynamics have both offset and enhanced concurrent effects on hydrology to inﬂuence terrestrial DOC loading and may be changing the relative importance of terrestrial carbon dynamics on this carbon ﬂux. Improvements in simulating terrestrial DOC loading to pan-Arctic rivers in the future will require better information on the production and consumption of DOC within the soil proﬁle, the transfer of DOC from land to headwater streams, the spatial distribution of precipitation and its temporal trends, carbon dynamics of larch-dominated ecosystems in eastern Siberia, and the role of industrial organic efﬂuents on carbon budgets of rivers in western Russia.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2012

Reconciling estimates of the contemporary North American carbon balance among terrestrial biosphere models, atmospheric inversions, and a new approach for estimating net ecosystem exchange from inventory-based data

We develop an approach for estimating net ecosystem exchange (NEE) using inventory-based information over North America (NA) for a recent 7-year period (ca. 2000–2006). The approach notably retains information on the spatial distribution of NEE, or the vertical exchange between land and atmosphere of all non-fossil fuel sources and sinks of CO 2 , while accounting for lateral transfers of forest and crop products as well as their eventual emissions. The total NEE estimate of a -327 ± 252 TgC yr -1 sink for NA was driven primarily by CO 2 uptake in the Forest Lands sector (-248 TgC yr -1 ), largely in the Northwest and Southeast regions of the US, and in the Crop Lands sector (-297 TgC yr -1 ), predominantly in the Midwest US states. These sinks are counteracted by the carbon source estimated for the Other Lands sector (+218 TgC yr -1 ), where much of the forest and crop products are assumed to be returned to the atmosphere (through livestock and human consumption). The ecosystems of Mexico are estimated to be a small net source (+18 TgC yr -1 ) due to land use change between 1993 and 2002. We compare these inventory-based estimates with results from a suite of terrestrial biosphere and atmospheric inversion models, where the mean continental-scale NEE estimate for each ensemble is -511 TgC yr -1 and -931 TgC yr -1 , respectively. In the modeling approaches, all sectors, including Other Lands, were generally estimated to be a carbon sink, driven in part by assumed CO 2 fertilization and/or lack of consideration of carbon sources from disturbances and product emissions. Additional fluxes not measured by the inventories, although highly uncertain, could add an additional -239 TgC yr -1 to the inventory-based NA sink estimate, thus suggesting some convergence with the modeling approaches.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2010

The effects of land cover and land use change on the contemporary carbon balance of the arctic and boreal terrestrial ecosystems of northern Eurasia

Recent changes in climate, disturbance regimes and land use and management systems in Northern Eurasia have the potential to disrupt the terrestrial sink of atmospheric CO 2 in a way that accelerates global climate change. To determine the recent trends in the carbon balance of the arctic and boreal ecosystems of this region, we performed a retrospective analysis of terrestrial carbon dynamics across northern Eurasia over a recent 10-year period using a terrestrial biogeochemical process model. The results of the simulations suggest a shift in direction of the net flux from the terrestrial sink of earlier decades to a net source on the order of 45 Tg C year −1 between 1997 and 2006. The simulation framework and subsequent analyses presented in this study attribute this shift to a large loss of carbon from boreal forest ecosystems, which experienced a trend of decreasing precipitation and a large area burned during this time period.

Book chapter↗

USGS2010

The carbon budget of the northern cryosphere region

The northern cryosphere is undergoing substantial warming of permafrost and loss of sea ice. Release of stored carbon to the atmosphere in response to this change has the potential to affect the global climate system. Studies indicate that the northern cryosphere has been not only a substantial sink for atmospheric CO 2 in recent decades, but also an important source of CH 4 because of emissions from wetlands and lakes. Analyses suggest that the sensitivity of the carbon cycle of the region over the 21st Century is potentially large, but highly uncertain because numerous pathways of response will be affected by warming. Further research should focus on sensitive elements of the carbon cycle such as the consequences of increased fire disturbance, permafrost degradation, and sea ice loss in the northern cryosphere region.

Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability↗

USGS2009

Sensitivity of the carbon cycle in the Arctic to climate change

The recent warming in the Arctic is affecting a broad spectrum of physical, ecological, and human/cultural systems that may be irreversible on century time scales and have the potential to cause rapid changes in the earth system. The response of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to changes in climate is a major issue of global concern, yet there has not been a comprehensive review of the status of the contemporary carbon cycle of the Arctic and its response to climate change. This review is designed to clarify key uncertainties and vulnerabilities in the response of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to ongoing climatic change. While it is clear that there are substantial stocks of carbon in the Arctic, there are also significant uncertainties associated with the magnitude of organic matter stocks contained in permafrost and the storage of methane hydrates beneath both subterranean and submerged permafrost of the Arctic. In the context of the global carbon cycle, this review demonstrates that the Arctic plays an important role in the global dynamics of both CO 2 and CH 4 . Studies suggest that the Arctic has been a sink for atmospheric CO 2 of between 0 and 0.8 Pg C/yr in recent decades, which is between 0% and 25% of the global net land/ocean flux during the 1990s. The Arctic is a substantial source of CH 4 to the atmosphere (between 32 and 112 Tg CH 4 /yr), primarily because of the large area of wetlands throughout the region. Analyses to date indicate that the sensitivity of the carbon cycle of the Arctic during the remainder of the 21st century is highly uncertain. To improve the capability to assess the sensitivity of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to projected climate change, we recommend that (1) integrated regional studies be conducted to link observations of carbon dynamics to the processes that are likely to influence those dynamics, and (2) the understanding gained from these integrated studies be incorporated into both uncoupled and fully coupled carbon–climate modeling efforts.

Ecological Monographs↗