Geology topics

Daniel B. Fagre

Publications and source records attributed to Daniel B. Fagre.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2024

Characterizing vegetation and return periods in avalanche paths using lidar and aerial imagery

Snow avalanches are a hazard and ecological disturbance across mountain landscapes worldwide. Understanding how avalanche frequency affects forests and vegetation improves infrastructure planning, risk management, and avalanche forecasting. We implemented a novel approach using lidar, aerial imagery, and a random forest model to classify imagery-observed vegetation within avalanche paths in southern Glacier National Park, Montana, USA. We calculated spatially explicit avalanche return periods using a physically based spatial interpolation method and characterized the vegetation within those return period zones. The automated vegetation classification model differed slightly between avalanche paths, but the combination of lidar and spectral signature metrics provided the best accuracy (88–92 percent) for predicting vegetation classes within complex avalanche terrain rather than lidar or spectral signature metrics alone. The highest frequency avalanche return periods were broadly characterized by grassland and shrubland, but the influence of topography greatly influences the vegetation classes as well as the return periods. Furthermore, statistically significant differences in lidar-derived vegetation canopy height exist between categorical return periods. The ability to characterize vegetation within various avalanche return periods using remote sensing data provides land use planners and avalanche forecasters a tool for assessing the spatial extent of large-magnitude avalanches in individual avalanche paths.

Montana↗

USGS2021

Climate drivers of large magnitude snow avalanche years in the U.S. northern Rocky Mountains

Large magnitude snow avalanches pose a hazard to humans and infrastructure worldwide. Analyzing the spatiotemporal behavior of avalanches and the contributory climate factors is important for understanding historical variability in climate-avalanche relationships as well as improving avalanche forecasting. We used established dendrochronological methods to develop a long-term (1867–2019) regional avalanche chronology for the Rocky Mountains of northwest Montana using tree-rings from 647 trees exhibiting 2134 avalanche-related growth disturbances. We then used principal component analysis and a generalized linear autoregressive moving average model to examine avalanche-climate relationships. Historically, large magnitude regional avalanche years were characterized by stormy winters with positive snowpack anomalies, with avalanche years over recent decades increasingly influenced by warmer temperatures and a shallow snowpack. The amount of snowpack across the region, represented by the first principal component, is shown to be directly related to avalanche probability. Coincident with warming and regional snowpack reductions, a decline of ~ 14% (~ 2% per decade) in overall large magnitude avalanche probability is apparent through the period 1950–2017. As continued climate warming drives further regional snowpack reductions in the study region our results suggest a decreased probability of regional large magnitude avalanche frequency associated with winters characterized by large snowpacks and a potential increase in large magnitude events driven by warming temperatures and spring precipitation.

Montana↗

USGS2021

A regional spatio-temporal analysis of large magnitude snow avalanches using tree rings

Snow avalanches affect transportation corridors and settlements worldwide. In many mountainous regions, robust records of avalanche frequency and magnitude are sparse or non-existent. However, dendrochronological methods can be used to fill this gap and infer historical avalanche patterns. In this study, we developed a tree-ring-based avalanche chronology for large magnitude avalanche events (size ≥ ∼ D 3 "> ≥ ∼ D 3 ) using dendrochronological techniques for a portion of the US northern Rocky Mountains. We used a strategic sampling design to examine avalanche activity through time and across nested spatial scales (i.e., from individual paths, four distinct subregions, and the region). We analyzed 673 samples in total from 647 suitable trees collected from 12 avalanche paths from which 2134 growth disturbances were identified over the years 1636 to 2017 CE. Using existing indexing approaches, we developed a regional avalanche activity index to discriminate avalanche events from noise in the tree-ring record. Large magnitude avalanches, common across the region, occurred in 30 individual years and exhibited a median return interval of approximately 3 years (mean = 5.21 years). The median large magnitude avalanche return interval (3–8 years) and the total number of avalanche years (12–18) varies throughout the four subregions, suggesting the important influence of local terrain and weather factors. We tested subsampling routines for regional representation, finding that sampling 8 random paths out of a total of 12 avalanche paths in the region captures up to 83 % of the regional chronology, whereas four paths capture only 43 % to 73 %. The greatest value probability of detection for any given path in our dataset is 40 %, suggesting that sampling a single path would capture no more than 40 % of the regional avalanche activity. Results emphasize the importance of sample size, scale, and spatial extent when attempting to derive a regional large magnitude avalanche event chronology from tree-ring records.

Montana↗

USGS2020

Alpine plant community diversity in species-area relations at fine scale

Observations of diversity in alpine vegetation appear to be scale dependent. The relations of plant species richness with surface processes and geomorphology have been studied, but patterns of beta diversity are less known. In Glacier National Park, Montana, diversity has been examined within 1 m 2 plots and for 16 m 2 plots across two ranges, with within-plot and across-range explanatory factors, respectively. The slopes of species–area equations for nested 4, 8, 12, and 16 m 2 plots were used as an indicator of beta diversity in Glacier National Park, where smaller and larger scales have been examined. The slopes were negatively related to a field assessment of surface stability and positively to the presence of talus—two sides of the same coin. A positive relationship with bedrock outcrops may be due to a misrepresentation of area for plants. The relationship of species–area slopes to plot-level gamma diversity was negative, weak, and marginally significant, and this variable did not enter the general linear model (GLM). Beyond simple differences in diversity with differences in environment, examination of beta diversity at a scale between that of earlier studies revealed surface processes and geomorphology as drivers that were also at a scale between those previously reported.

Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research↗

USGS2020

Parsing complex terrain controls on mountain glacier response to climate forcing

Glaciers are a key indicator of changing climate in the high mountain landscape. Glacier variations across a mountain range are ultimately driven by regional climate forcing. However, changes also reflect local, topographically driven processes such as snow avalanching, snow wind-drifting, and radiation shading as well as the initial glacier conditions such as hypsometry and ice thickness. Here we assess the role of these various terrain influences on change to Little Ice Age (LIA) glaciers in Glacier National Park, U.S.A . With available data for LIA and modern glacier areas, we estimate glacier volumes using simple ice flow assumptions, and topographically driven processes using terrain proxies. At the LIA glacial maxima there were 82 glaciers larger than 0.1 km 2 ranging from 0.11 to 4.97 km 2 . Over the course of the 20 th century, every single LIA glacier decreased in area and 60% (49 glaciers) diminished to below the 0.1 km 2 threshold. Glaciers with large initial area (>1.5 km 2 ) at the end of LIA persisted. Within the intermediate size class (0.5 km 2 < area < 1.5 km 2 ), LIA glacier persistence is poorly explained by initial glacier volume, ice thickness, or elevation. Instead, wind exposure is an important explanatory factor. Our analysis demonstrates the complex response of cirque glaciers to post-LIA climate change in this region: individual glaciers have not necessarily undergone equivalent and synchronous change. Nevertheless, that all glaciers in this mountain range experienced retreat demonstrates that local processes mediated adjustments of some glaciers, but completely decoupled none from the regional climate forcing.

Montana↗

USGS2019

Reanalysis of the U.S. Geological Survey Benchmark Glaciers: Long-term insight into climate forcing of glacier mass balance

Mountain glaciers integrate climate processes to provide an unmatched signal of regional climate forcing. However, extracting the climate signal via intercomparison of regional glacier mass balance records can be problematic when methods for extrapolating and calibrating direct glaciological measurements are mixed or inconsistent. To address this problem, we reanalyzed and compared long-term mass balance records from the U.S. Geological Survey Benchmark Glaciers. These five glaciers span maritime and continental climate regimes of the western United States and Alaska. Each glacier exhibits cumulative mass loss since the mid-20th century, with average rates ranging from –0.58 to –0.30 m water equivalent (w.e.) a-1. We produced a set of solutions using different extrapolation and calibration methods to inform uncertainty estimates, which range from 0.22–0.44 m w.e. a-1. Mass losses are primarily driven by increasing summer warming. Continentality exerts a stronger control on mass loss than latitude. Similar to elevation, topographic shading, snow redistribution, and glacier surface features often exert first-order control on mass balance. The reanalysis underscores the value of geodetic calibration to resolve mass balance magnitude, as well as the irreplaceable value of direct measurements in contributing to process-based understanding of glacier mass balance.

Journal of Glaciology↗

USGS2019

Glacier recession since the Little Ice Age: Implications for water storage in a Rocky Mountain landscape

Glacial ice is a significant influence on local climate, hydrology, vegetation, and wildlife. We mapped a complete set of glacier areas from the Little Ice Age (LIA) using very high-resolution satellite imagery (30-cm) within Glacier National Park, a region that encompasses over 400,000 hectares. We measured glacier change across the park using LIA glacier area as a baseline and used this to estimate change in glacier area and volume over time. An estimated 146 glaciers existed within the current boundaries of Glacier National Park during the LIA. By 2005, only 51 (35%) persisted. Nearly 90% of LIA glaciers had lost 50% of their area by 2005. This decrease in glacier area equates to an estimated loss of ice volume of 1.52 km3, or 1.37 km3 of water storage, roughly equivalent to 40% of Lake McDonald, the largest lake in the park. Understanding rates of deglaciation and implications for water storage and use can assist local resource managers and downstream communities in planning for change.

Montana↗

USGS2019

Mountain plant communities: Uncertain sentinels?

Mountain plant communities are thought to be sensitive to climate change and thus able to reveal its effects sooner than others. Two plant communities examined here, alpine treeline ecotones and alpine tundra, have been observed to respond to climate change in recent decades. Treeline has moved upslope and alpine tundra communities have had some species increase and others decrease. The response for both, however, has been inconsistent if taken as a whole. Problematic factors for this response are outlined for both: abiotic and biotic interactions partially decouple the plant communities from climate. Differences across spatial and temporal scales complicate interpretation. Partial decoupling leads to nonlinear responses and difficulties for prediction and for planning mitigation.

Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environm↗

USGS2018

Scale dependence of diversity in alpine tundra, Rocky Mountains, USA

Drivers of alpine plant community composition have been observed to vary with scale. Diversity of alpine tundra across four regions of the Rocky Mountains and among plots within one region was examined relative to temperature and precipitation variables. For regional scale analyses, averages of three metrics of plot-level species diversity relative to environmental variables and regional gamma diversity were examined for a subset of 60 plots from a stratified random sample in each region. For local scale analyses, additional soil and climate variables were included at 96 plots from one of the four regions. Correlations and visual examination of bivariate plots elucidated possible controls of cold temperatures and gamma diversity on average diversity metrics among the four regions and of precipitation and/or location on plot-level metrics within the single region. For the latter, the bivariate graph indicated a triangular distribution in which all levels of diversity exist at low precipitation but only low diversity at higher precipitation. We propose that change in drivers with scale is a general result of the relative importance of temperature and water in seed production (temperature > water) and seedling establishment (vice versa) and the logical priority of seed production over seedling establishment.

Colorado, Montana, New Mexico, Wyoming↗

USGS2018

Local topography increasingly influences the mass balance of a retreating cirque glacier

Local topographically driven processes – such as wind drifting, avalanching, and shading – are known to alter the relationship between the mass balance of small cirque glaciers and regional climate. Yet partitioning such local effects from regional climate influence has proven difficult, creating uncertainty in the climate representativeness of some glaciers. We address this problem for Sperry Glacier in Glacier National Park, USA, using field-measured surface mass balance, geodetic constraints on mass balance, and regional climate data recorded at a network of meteorological and snow stations. Geodetically derived mass changes during 1950–1960, 1960–2005, and 2005–2014 document average mass change rates during each period at −0.22 ± 0.12, −0.18 ± 0.05, and −0.10 ± 0.03 m w.e. yr −1 , respectively. A correlation of field-measured mass balance and regional climate variables closely (i.e., within 0.08 m w.e. yr −1 ) predicts the geodetically measured mass loss from 2005 to 2014. However, this correlation overestimates glacier mass balance for 1950–1960 by +1.20 ± 0.95 m w.e. yr −1 . Our analysis suggests that local effects, not represented in regional climate variables, have become a more dominant driver of the net mass balance as the glacier lost 0.50 km 2 and retreated further into its cirque.

Northern Rocky Mountains↗

USGS2018

Geomorphic determinants of species composition of alpine tundra, Glacier National Park, U.S.A.

Because the distribution of alpine tundra is associated with spatially limited cold climates, global warming may threaten its local extent or existence. This notion has been challenged, however, based on observations of the diversity of alpine tundra in small areas primarily due to topographic variation. The importance of diversity in temperature or moisture conditions caused by topographic variation is an open question, and we extend this to geomorphology more generally. The extent to which geomorphic variation per se , based on relatively easily assessed indicators, can account for the variation in alpine tundra community composition is analyzed versus the inclusion of broad indicators of regional climate variation. Visual assessments of topography are quantified and reduced using principal components analysis (PCA). Observations of species cover are reduced using detrended correspondence analysis (DCA). A “best subsets” regression approach using the Akaike Information Criterion for selection of variables is compared to a simple stepwise regression with DCA scores as the dependent variable and scores on significant PCA axes plus more direct measures of topography as independent variables. Models with geographic coordinates (representing regional climate gradients) excluded explain almost as much variation in community composition as models with them included, although they are important contributors to the latter. The geomorphic variables in the model are those associated with local moisture differences such as snowbeds. The potential local variability of alpine tundra can be a buffer against climate change, but change in precipitation may be as important as change in temperature.

Montana↗

USGS2018

Mountain treelines: A roadmap for research orientation

For over 100 years, mountain treelines have been the subject of varied research endeavors and remain a strong area of investigation. The purpose of this paper is to examine aspects of the epistemology of mountain treeline research-that is, to investigate how knowledge on treelines has been acquired and the changes in knowledge acquisition over time, through a review of fundamental questions and approaches. The questions treeline researchers have raised and continue to raise have undoubtedly directed the current state of knowledge. A continuing, fundamental emphasis has centered on seeking the general cause of mountain treelines, thus seeking an answer to the question, "What causes treeline?" with a primary emphasis on searching for ecophysiological mechanisms of low-temperature limitation for tree growth and regeneration. However, treeline research today also includes a rich literature that seeks local, landscape-scale causes of treelines and reasons why treelines vary so widely in three-dimensional patterns from one location to the next, and this approach and some of its consequences are elaborated here. In recent years, both lines of research have been motivated greatly by global climate change. Given the current state of knowledge, we propose that future research directions focused on a spatial approach should specifically address cross-scale hypotheses using statistics and simulations designed for nested hierarchies; these analyses will benefit from geographic extension of treeline research.

Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research↗

USGS2018

Glacier-derived August runoff in northwest Montana

The second largest concentration of glaciers in the U.S. Rocky Mountains is located in Glacier National Park (GNP), Montana. The total glacier-covered area in this region decreased by &sim;35% over the past 50 years, which has raised substantial concern about the loss of the water derived from glaciers during the summer. We used an innovative weather station design to collect in situ measurements on five remote glaciers, which are used to parameterize a regional glacier melt model. This model offered a first-order estimate of the summer meltwater production by glaciers. We find, during the normally dry month of August, glaciers in the region produce approximately 25 × 10 6 m 3 of potential runoff. We then estimated the glacier runoff component in five gaged streams sourced from GNP basins containing glaciers. Glacier-melt contributions range from 5% in a basin only 0.12% glacierized to >90% in a basin 28.5% glacierized. Glacier loss would likely lead to lower discharges and warmer temperatures in streams draining basins >20% glacier-covered. Lower flows could even be expected in streams draining basins as little as 1.4% glacierized if glaciers were to disappear.

Montana↗

USGS2018

Detecting snow depth change in avalanche path starting zones using uninhabited aerial systems and structure from motion photogrammetry

Understanding snow depth distribution and change is useful for avalanche forecasting and mitigation, runoff forecasting, and infrastructure planning. Advances in remote sensing are improving the ability to collect snow depth measurements. The development of structure from motion (SfM), a photogrammetry technique, combined with the use of uninhabited aerial systems (UASs) allows for high resolution mapping of snow depth over complex terrain. The primary objective of this study was to determine the feasibility and efficacy of SfM to examine snow depth distribution and variability in complex terrain such as avalanche path starting zones at multiple times during the season. We used a 3DR Solo quadcopter UAS equipped with a Ricoh GR II camera at 90 m above ground level to acquire images of one avalanche starting zone in northwest Montana, USA. We also placed 4 to 13 ground control points (GCPs) around the area of interest to avoid traveling in steep, avalanche terrain. Ground control measurements resulted in 5 to10 cm horizontal accuracy and 5 to 15 cm vertical accuracy for 90 to 95 % of the collected points (a minimum of 100 points collected at each GCP). In-situ measurements of snow depth difference between sampling days ranged from 20 to 60 cm. We processed the images to create point clouds and digital surface models (DSMs). The resolution of the resultant DSMs was approximately 5 cm. Preliminary DSM and point cloud differencing efforts suggest relative change detection of snow depth at 5 to 15 cm resolution. The use of these relatively low cost and easily accessible methods of snow depth data collection will enhance accuracy of snow depth change estimates in starting zones and can be used to inform avalanche forecasting and mitigation efforts.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2018

Identifying major avalanche years from a regional tree-ring based avalanche chronology for the U.S. Northern Rocky Mountains

Avalanches not only pose a major hazard to people and infrastructure, but also act as an important ecological disturbance. In many mountainous regions in North America, including areas with existing transportation corridors, reliable and consistent avalanche records are sparse or non-existent. Thus, inferring long-term avalanche patterns and associated contributory climate and weather factors requires the use of dendrochronological methods...

Conference Paper↗

USGS2017

Distance and environmental difference in alpine plant communities

Differences in plant communities are a response to the abiotic environment, species interactions, and dispersal. The role of geographic distance relative to the abiotic environment is explored for alpine tundra vegetation from 319 plots of four regions along the Rocky Mountain cordillera in the USA. The site by species data were ordinated using nonmetric multidimensional scaling to produce dependent variables for use in best-subsets regression. For independent variables, observations of local topography and microtopography were used as environmental indicators. Two methods of including distance in studies of vegetation and environment are used and contrasted. The relative importance of geographic distance in accounting for the pattern of alpine tundra similarity indicates that location is a factor in plant community composition. Mantel tests provide direct correlations between difference and distance but have known weaknesses. Moran spatial eigenvectors used in regression based approaches have greater geographic specificity, but require another step, ordination, in creating a vegetation variable. While the spatial eigenvectors are generally preferable, where species–environment relations are weak, as seems to be the case for the alpine sites studied here, the fewer abstractions of the Mantel test may be useful.

Rocky Mountain cordillera↗

USGS2017

Glaciological measurements and mass balances from Sperry Glacier, Montana, USA, years 2005–2015

Glacier mass balance measurements help to provide an understanding of the behavior of glaciers and their response to local and regional climate. In 2005 the United States Geological Survey established a surface mass balance monitoring program on Sperry Glacier, Montana, USA. This project is the first quantitative study of mass changes of a glacier in the US northern Rocky Mountains and continues to the present. The following paper describes the methods used during the first 11 years of measurements and reports the associated results. From 2005 to 2015, Sperry Glacier had a cumulative mean mass balance loss of 4.37 m w.e. (water equivalent). The mean winter, summer, and annual glacier-wide mass balances were 2.92, −3.41, and −0.40 m w.e. yr −1 respectively. We derive these cumulative and mean results from an expansive data set of snow depth, snow density, and ablation measurements taken at selected points on the glacier. These data allow for the determination of mass balance point values and a time series of seasonal and annual glacier-wide mass balances for all 11 measurement years. We also provide measurements of glacier extent and accumulation areas for select years. All data have been submitted to the World Glacier Monitoring Service and are available at doi:10.5904/wgms-fog-2016-08 . This foundational work provides valuable insight about Sperry Glacier and supplies additional data to the worldwide record of glaciers measured using the glaciological method. Future research will focus on the processes that control accumulation and ablation patterns across the glacier. Also we plan to examine the uncertainties related to our methods and eventually quantify a more robust estimate of error associated with our results.

Montana↗

USGS2016

Relations of alpine plant communities across environmental gradients: Multilevel versus multiscale analyses

Alpine plant communities vary, and their environmental covariates could influence their response to climate change. A single multilevel model of how alpine plant community composition is determined by hierarchical relations is compared to a separate examination of those relations at different scales. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling of species cover for plots in four regions across the Rocky Mountains created dependent variables. Climate variables are derived for the four regions from interpolated data. Plot environmental variables are measured directly and the presence of thirty-seven site characteristics is recorded and used to create additional independent variables. Multilevel and best subsets regressions are used to determine the strength of the hypothesized relations. The ordinations indicate structure in the assembly of plant communities. The multilevel analyses, although revealing significant relations, provide little explanation; of the site variables, those related to site microclimate are most important. In multiscale analyses (whole and separate regions), different variables are better explanations within the different regions. This result indicates weak environmental niche control of community composition. The weak relations of the structure in the patterns of species association to the environment indicates that either alpine vegetation represents a case of the neutral theory of biogeography being a valid explanation or that it represents disequilibrium conditions. The implications of neutral theory and disequilibrium explanations are similar: Response to climate change will be difficult to quantify above equilibrium background turnover.

Annals of the Association of American Geographers↗