Geology topics

D.M. Heisey

Publications and source records attributed to D.M. Heisey.

10 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2012

Bayesian shared frailty models for regional inference about wildlife survival

One can joke that 'exciting statistics' is an oxymoron, but it is neither a joke nor an exaggeration to say that these are exciting times to be involved in statistical ecology. As Halstead et al. 's (2012) paper nicely exemplifies, recently developed Bayesian analyses can now be used to extract insights from data using techniques that would have been unavailable to the ecological researcher just a decade ago. Some object to this, implying that the subjective priors of the Bayesian approach is the pathway to perdition (e.g. Lele & Dennis, 2009). It is reasonable to ask whether these new approaches are really giving us anything that we could not obtain with traditional tried-and-true frequentist approaches. I believe the answer is a clear yes.

Animal Conservation↗

USGS2010

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) susceptibility of several North American rodents that are sympatric with cervid CWD epidemics

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a highly contagious always fatal neurodegenerative disease that is currently known to naturally infect only species of the deer family, Cervidae. CWD epidemics are occurring in free-ranging cervids at several locations in North America, and other wildlife species are certainly being exposed to infectious material. To assess the potential for transmission, we intracerebrally inoculated four species of epidemic-sympatric rodents with CWD. Transmission was efficient in all species; the onset of disease was faster in the two vole species than the two Peromyscus spp. The results for inocula prepared from CWD-positive deer with or without CWD-resistant genotypes were similar. Survival times were substantially shortened upon second passage, demonstrating adaptation. Unlike all other known prion protein sequences for cricetid rodents that possess asparagine at position 170, our red-backed voles expressed serine and refute previous suggestions that a serine in this position substantially reduces susceptibility to CWD. Given the scavenging habits of these rodent species, the apparent persistence of CWD prions in the environment, and the inevitable exposure of these rodents to CWD prions, our intracerebral challenge results indicate that further investigation of the possibility of natural transmission is warranted. Copyright ?? 2010, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Journal of Virology↗

USGS2009

Disease, predation and demography: Assessing the impacts of bovine tuberculosis on African buffalo by monitoring at individual and population levels

Summary Understanding the effects of disease is critical to determining appropriate management responses, but estimating those effects in wildlife species is challenging. We used bovine tuberculosis (BTB) in the African buffalo Syncerus caffer population of Kruger National Park, South Africa, as a case study to highlight the issues associated with estimating chronic disease effects in a long‐lived host. We used known and radiocollared buffalo, aerial census data, and a natural gradient in pathogen prevalence to investigate if: (i) at the individual level, BTB infection reduces reproduction; (ii) BTB infection increases vulnerability to predation; and (iii) at the population level, increased BTB prevalence causes reduced population growth. There was only a marginal reduction in calving success associated with BTB infection, as indexed by the probability of sighting a known adult female with or without a calf ( P = 0·065). Since 1991, BTB prevalence increased from 27 to 45% in the southern region and from 4 to 28% in the central region of Kruger National Park. The prevalence in the northern regions was only 1·5% in 1998. Buffalo population growth rates, however, were neither statistically different among regions nor declining over time. Lions Panthera leo did not appear to preferentially kill test‐positive buffalo. The best (Akaike's Information Criterion corrected for small sample size) AIC c model with BTB as a covariate [exp(β) = 0·49; 95% CI = (0·24–1·02)] suggested that the mortality hazard for positive individuals was no greater than for test‐negative individuals. Synthesis and applications . Test accuracy, time‐varying disease status, and movement among populations are some of the issues that make the detection of chronic disease impacts challenging. For these reasons, the demographic impacts of bovine tuberculosis in the Kruger National Park remain undetectable despite 6 years of study on known individuals and 40 years of population counts. However, the rainfall and forage conditions during this study were relatively good and the impacts of many chronic diseases may be a non‐linear function of environmental conditions such that they are only detectable in stressful periods.

Kruger National Park↗

USGS2009

The adrenocortical response of greater sage grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) to capture, ACTH injection, and confinement, as measured in fecal samples

Investigators of wildlife populations often utilize demographic indicators to understand the relationship between habitat characteristics and population viability. Assessments of corticosterone may enable earlier detection of populations at risk of decline because physiological adjustments to habitat disturbance occur before reproductive diminutions. Noninvasive methods to accomplish these assesments are important in species of concern, such as the greater sage grouse (GRSG). Therefore, we validated a radioimmunoassay that measures immunoreactive corticosterone metabolites (ICM) in fecal samples and used it to characterize the adrenocortical response of 15 GRSG exposed to capture, intravenous injection of 50 IU/kg adrenocorticotrophic hormone (ACTH) or saline, and 22 h of confinement. Those animals injected with ACTH exhibited a more sustained (P = 0.0139) and less variable (P = 0.0012) response than those injected with saline, indicating different levels of adrenocortical activity. We also found that potential field-collection protocols of fecal samples did not alter ICM concentrations: samples held at 4??C for up to 16 h contained similar levels of ICM as those frozen (-20??C) immediately. This study demonstrates a multiphasic adrenocortical response that varied with the level of stimulation and indicates that the assay used to measure this phenomenon is applicable for studies of wild GRSG. ?? 2009 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved.

Oregon↗

USGS2009

Spatial and temporal patterns of chronic wasting disease: Fine-scale mapping of a wildlife epidemic in Wisconsin

Emerging infectious diseases threaten wildlife populations and human health. Understanding the spatial distributions of these new diseases is important for disease management and policy makers; however, the data are complicated by heterogeneities across host classes, sampling variance, sampling biases, and the space-time epidemic process. Ignoring these issues can lead to false conclusions or obscure important patterns in the data, such as spatial variation in disease prevalence. Here, we applied hierarchical Bayesian disease mapping methods to account for risk factors and to estimate spatial and temporal patterns of infection by chronic wasting disease (CWD) in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) of Wisconsin, USA. We found significant heterogeneities for infection due to age, sex, and spatial location. Infection probability increased with age for all young deer, increased with age faster for young males, and then declined for some older animals, as expected from disease-associated mortality and age-related changes in infection risk. We found that disease prevalence was clustered in a central location, as expected under a simple spatial epidemic process where disease prevalence should increase with time and expand spatially. However, we could not detect any consistent temporal or spatiotemporal trends in CWD prevalence. Estimates of the temporal trend indicated that prevalence may have decreased or increased with nearly equal posterior probability, and the model without temporal or spatiotemporal effects was nearly equivalent to models with these effects based on deviance information criteria. For maximum interpretability of the role of location as a disease risk factor, we used the technique of direct standardization for prevalence mapping, which we develop and describe. These mapping results allow disease management actions to be employed with reference to the estimated spatial distribution of the disease and to those host classes most at risk. Future wildlife epidemiology studies should employ hierarchical Bayesian methods to smooth estimated quantities across space and time, account for heterogeneities, and then report disease rates based on an appropriate standardization. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2006

Comparing historical catch rates of American shad in multifilament and monofilament nets: A step toward setting restoration targets for Virginia stocks

Recreational and commercial harvest of American shad Alosa sapidissima in the Virginia waters of the Chesapeake Bay and its tributaries has been prohibited since 1994. The Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission Shad and River Herring Management Plan requires that Virginia develop restoration targets for its shad populations, but estimates of their sizes are not available and there is little information about historic population levels. Thus, establishing restoration targets based on population size is problematic. A current spawning stock monitoring program yields catch rate information that can be compared with historic catch rate information recorded in commercial fishery logbooks from the 1950s and the 1980s. However, multifilament gill nets were used in the 1950s and monofilament nets were used in the 1980s (as well as in the current monitoring program). A Latin square design was employed to test the differences in relative fishing power of the two gear types over 2 years of seasonal sampling on the York River, Virginia. Estimates are that the monofilament nets are roughly twice as efficient as the multifilament nets. Reported catch rates in the 1950s and 1980s are roughly equivalent. However, when adjustments are made for the differences in fishing gear, catch rates for the 1950s are twice as high as those during the 1980s. These results provide valuable information for setting restoration targets for Virginia stocks of American shad. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2006.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

USGS2006

Experimental infection of the endangered bonytail chub (Gila elegans) with the Asian fish tapeworm (Bothriocephalus acheilognathi): impacts on survival, growth, and condition

Bothriocephalus acheilognathi Yamaguti, 1934, a tapeworm known to be pathogenic to some fish species, has become established in the endangered humpback chub (Gila cypha Miller, 1964) in Grand Canyon, USA, following the tapeworm’s introduction into the Colorado River system. The potential impact of this tapeworm on humpback chub was studied by exposing the closely related bonytail chub (Gila elegans Baird and Girard, 1853) to the parasite under a range of conditions that included potential stressors of humpback chub in their natal waters, such as abrupt temperature change and a limited food base. Survival of infected fish under low food rations was considerably lower than that of control fish, and mortality of infected fish began 20 days earlier. Growth of infected fish was significantly reduced, and negative changes in health condition indices were found. No significant negative impacts were revealed from the synergistic effects between temperature shock and infection. Bothriocephalus acheilognathi does present a potential threat to humpback chub in Grand Canyon and should be considered, along with conventional concerns involving altered flow regimes and predation, when management decisions are made concerning conservation of this endangered species.

Arizona↗

USGS2006

The fitting of general force-of-infection models to wildlife disease prevalence data

Researchers and wildlife managers increasingly find themselves in situations where they must deal with infectious wildlife diseases such as chronic wasting disease, brucellosis, tuberculosis, and West Nile virus. Managers are often charged with designing and implementing control strategies, and researchers often seek to determine factors that influence and control the disease process. All of these activities require the ability to measure some indication of a disease's foothold in a population and evaluate factors affecting that foothold. The most common type of data available to managers and researchers is apparent prevalence data. Apparent disease prevalence, the proportion of animals in a sample that are positive for the disease, might seem like a natural measure of disease's foothold, but several properties, in particular, its dependency on age structure and the biasing effects of disease-associated mortality, make it less than ideal. In quantitative epidemiology, the a??force of infection,a?? or infection hazard, is generally the preferred parameter for measuring a disease's foothold, and it can be viewed as the most appropriate way to a??adjusta?? apparent prevalence for age structure. The typical ecology curriculum includes little exposure to quantitative epidemiological concepts such as cumulative incidence, apparent prevalence, and the force of infection. The goal of this paper is to present these basic epidemiological concepts and resulting models in an ecological context and to illustrate how they can be applied to understand and address basic epidemiological questions. We demonstrate a practical approach to solving the heretofore intractable problem of fitting general force-of-infection models to wildlife prevalence data using a generalized regression approach. We apply the procedures to Mycobacterium bovis (bovine tuberculosis) prevalence in bison (Bison bison) in Wood Buffalo National Park, Canada, and demonstrate strong age dependency in the force of infection as well as an increased mortality hazard in positive animals.

Ecology↗

USGS2005

A regional classification scheme for estimating reference water quality in streams using land-use-adjusted spatial regression-tree analysis

Various approaches are used to subdivide large areas into regions containing streams that have similar reference or background water quality and that respond similarly to different factors. For many applications, such as establishing reference conditions, it is preferable to use physical characteristics that are not affected by human activities to delineate these regions. However, most approaches, such as ecoregion classifications, rely on land use to delineate regions or have difficulties compensating for the effects of land use. Land use not only directly affects water quality, but it is often correlated with the factors used to define the regions. In this article, we describe modifications to SPARTA (spatial regression-tree analysis), a relatively new approach applied to water-quality and environmental characteristic data to delineate zones with similar factors affecting water quality. In this modified approach, land-use-adjusted (residualized) water quality and environmental characteristics are computed for each site. Regression-tree analysis is applied to the residualized data to determine the most statistically important environmental characteristics describing the distribution of a specific water-quality constituent. Geographic information for small basins throughout the study area is then used to subdivide the area into relatively homogeneous environmental water-quality zones. For each zone, commonly used approaches are subsequently used to define its reference water quality and how its water quality responds to changes in land use. SPARTA is used to delineate zones of similar reference concentrations of total phosphorus and suspended sediment throughout the upper Midwestern part of the United States. ?? 2006 Springer Science+Business Media, Inc.

Environmental Management↗

USGS2004

Epidemiology of fractures in people with severe and profound developmental disabilities

Fractures are more prevalent among people with severe and profound developmental disabilities than in the general population. In order to characterize the tendency of these people to fracture, and to identify features that may guide the development of preventive strategies, we analyzed fracture epidemiology in people with severe and profound developmental disabilities who lived in a stable environment. Data from a 23-year longitudinal cohort registry of 1434 people with severe and profound developmental disabilities were analyzed to determine the effects of age, gender, mobility, bone fractured, month of fracture, and fracture history upon fracture rates. Eighty-five percent of all fractures involved the extremities. The overall fracture rate increased as mobility increased. In contrast, femoral shaft fracture risk was substantially higher in the least mobile [relative risk (RR), 10.36; 95% confidence interval (CI), 3.29-32.66] compared with the most mobile group. Although the overall fracture rate was not associated with age, the femoral shaft fractures decreased but hand/foot fractures increased with age. Overall fracture risk declined in August and September (RR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.55-0.89), being especially prominent for tibial/fibular fractures (RR, 0.31; 95% CI, 0.13-0.70). Gender was not a factor in fracture risk. Two primary fracture mechanisms are apparent: one, largely associated with lack of weight-bearing in people with the least mobility, is exemplified by femoral fractures during non-traumatic events as simple as diapering or transfers; the other, probably due to movement- or fall-related trauma, is exemplified by hand/foot fractures in people who ambulate. The fracture experience of people with severe and profound developmental disabilities is unique and, because it differs qualitatively from postmenopausal osteoporosis, may require population-specific methods for assessing risk, for improving bone integrity, and for reduction of falls and accidents. ?? International Osteoporosis Foundation and National Osteoporosis Foundation 2004.

Osteoporosis International↗