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D. Perkins

Publications and source records attributed to D. Perkins.

10 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2014

Estimating structural collapse fragility of generic building typologies using expert judgment

The structured expert elicitation process proposed by Cooke (1991), hereafter referred to as Cooke’s approach, is applied for the first time in the realm of structural collapse-fragility assessment for selected generic construction types. Cooke’s approach works on the principle of objective calibration scoring of judgments coupled with hypothesis testing used in classical statistics. The performance-based scoring system reflects the combined measure of an expert’s informativeness about variables in the problem area under consideration, and their ability to enumerate, in a statistically accurate way through expressing their true beliefs, the quantitative uncertainties associated with their assessments. We summarize the findings of an expert elicitation workshop in which a dozen earthquake-engineering professionals from around the world were engaged to estimate seismic collapse fragility for generic construction types. Development of seismic collapse fragility functions was accomplished by combining their judgments using weights derived from Cooke’s method. Although substantial effort was needed to elicit the inputs of these experts successfully, we anticipate that the elicitation strategy described here will gain momentum in a wide variety of earthquake seismology and engineering hazard and risk analyses where physical model and data limitations are inherent and objective professional judgment can fill gaps.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2011

Demographic analysis of Lost River sucker and shortnose sucker populations in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon

We used 13 years (1995-2007) of capture-mark-recapture data to assess population dynamics of endangered Lost River suckers Deltistes luxatus and shortnose suckers Chasmistes brevirostris in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon. The Cormack-Jolly-Seber method was used to estimate survival, and information theoretic modeling was used to assess variation due to time, gender, species, and spawning subpopulations. Length data were used to detect multiple year-class failures and events of high recruitment into adult spawning populations. Average annual survival probability was 0.88 for Lost River suckers and 0.76 for shortnose suckers. Mean life span estimates based on these survival rates indicated that Lost River suckers survived long enough on average to attempt reproduction eight times, whereas shortnose suckers only survived to spawn three to four times. Shortnose sucker survival was not only poor in years of fish kills (1995-1997) but also was low in years without fish kills (i.e., 2002 and 2004). This suggests that high mortality occurs in some years but is not necessarily associated with fish kills. Annual survival probabilities were not only different between the two species but also differed between two spawning subpopulations of Lost River suckers. Length composition data indicated that recruitment into spawning populations only occurred intermittently. Populations of both species transitioned from primarily old individuals with little size diversity and consistently poor recruitment in the late 1980s and early 1990s to mostly small, recruit-sized fish by the late 1990s. A better understanding of the factors influencing adult survival and recruitment into spawning populations is needed. Monitoring these vital parameters will provide a quantitative means to evaluate population status and assess the effectiveness of conservation and recovery efforts.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗
USGS2009

Effect of time dependence on probabilistic seismic-hazard maps and deaggregation for the central Apennines, Italy

We produce probabilistic seismic-hazard assessments for the central Apennines, Italy, using time-dependent models that are characterized using a Brownian passage time recurrence model. Using aperiodicity parameters, ?? of 0.3, 0.5, and 0.7, we examine the sensitivity of the probabilistic ground motion and its deaggregation to these parameters. For the seismic source model we incorporate both smoothed historical seismicity over the area and geological information on faults. We use the maximum magnitude model for the fault sources together with a uniform probability of rupture along the fault (floating fault model) to model fictitious faults to account for earthquakes that cannot be correlated with known geologic structural segmentation.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2003

Population structure of Atlantic salmon in Maine with reference to populations from Atlantic Canada

Anadromous Atlantic salmon Salmo salar from 12 rivers in Maine, 3 rivers in New Brunswick, and 2 rivers each in Nova Scotia, Quebec, Newfoundland, and Labrador as well as 2 landlocked strains in Maine ( N = 3,863) were genotyped at 11 microsatellite loci. Fish in the drainages of Maine's Kennebec and Penobscot rivers were genetically similar to those sampled from the 8 rivers recently listed as containing an endangered distinct population segment under the United States' Endangered Species Act. Genetic distance estimates confirm that Maine's Atlantic salmon, both landlocked and anadromous, represent a discrete population unit, genetically as independent from any Canadian population as the Canadian populations are from each other. Within Maine, the anadromous and landlocked populations were statistically distinct. Anadromous Atlantic salmon were more genetically similar among year-classes within rivers than among rivers, as would be expected if the river is the unit of population. The effective number of breeders estimated within each river is larger than the number of adults estimated from samples and redd counts over the 10-year period from 1991 to 2000.

Maine↗
USGS2003

Earthquake occurrence modeling for evaluating seismic risks to roadway systems

The results of the application of a variety of techniques, which included bootstrap sampling, the use of antithetic values, the use of Latin squares sampling, use of control functions, a compound Poisson approach, and importance sampling, were presented. It was found that extremely large reductions in the number of simulations needed could be achieved for the mean and confidence limits of the conditional loss distribution. For the unconditional, annual-loss distribution, the reduction of the number of simulations achieved through post-sampling techniques was only a multiplicative reduction factor of slightly above 3.2.

Conference Paper↗
USGS1999

Deaggregation of probabilistic ground motions in the central and eastern United States

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is a technique for estimating the annual rate of exceedance of a specified ground motion at a site due to known and suspected earthquake sources. The relative contributions of the various sources to the total seismic hazard are determined as a function of their occurrence rates and their ground-motion potential. The separation of the exceedance contributions into bins whose base dimensions are magnitude and distance is called deaggregation . We have deaggregated the hazard analyses for the new USGS national probabilistic ground-motion hazard maps (Frankel et al. , 1996). For points on a 0.2° grid in the central and eastern United States (CEUS) , we show color maps of the geographical variation of mean and modal magnitudes ( M , Mˇ ) and distances ( D , Dˇ ) for ground motions having a 2% chance of exceedance in 50 years. These maps are displayed for peak horizontal acceleration and for spectral response accelerations of 0.2, 0.3, and 1.0 sec. We tabulate M , D , Mˇ , and Dˇ for 49 CEUS cities for 0.2- and 1.0-sec response. Thus, these maps and tables are PSHA-derived estimates of the potential earthquakes that dominate seismic hazard at short and intermediate periods in the CEUS.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS1996

New USGS seismic hazard maps for the United States

The US Geological Survey (USGS) is preparing new seismic national maps for release in April 1996. The new maps plot probabilistic ground motions for return times of about 500, 1000, and 2500 years. Deterministic (scenario) ground-motion maps are being prepared for selected faults in the western US. Due to the diversity of tectonic settings in the US, mapping methodologies for different regions had to be modified. A four-model approach is used to eliminate the need for drawing seismic source zones to determine seismic activity levels. A logic tree approach is used to incorporate alternative models of seismic hazard and alternative relations of seismic attenuation.

Conference Paper↗