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D. M. Perkins

Publications and source records attributed to D. M. Perkins.

17 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2012

2014 Update of the United States National Seismic Hazard Maps

The U.S. National Seismic Hazard Maps are revised every six years, corresponding with the update cycle of the International Building Code. These maps cover the conterminous U.S. and will be updated in 2014 using the best-available science that is obtained from colleagues at regional and topical workshops, which are convened in 2012-2013. Maps for Alaska and Hawaii will be updated shortly following this update. Alternative seismic hazard models discussed at the workshops will be implemented in a logic tree framework and will be used to develop the seismic hazard maps and associated products. In this paper we describe the plan to update the hazard maps, the issues raised in workshops up to March 2012, and topics that will be discussed at future workshops. An advisory panel will guide the development of the hazard maps and ensure that the maps are acceptable to a broad segment of the science and engineering communities. These updated maps will then be considered by end-users for inclusion in building codes, risk models, and public policy documents.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2005

Evidence for a global seismic-moment release sequence

Temporal clustering of the larger earthquakes (foreshock-mainshock-aftershock) followed by relative quiescence (stress shadow) are characteristic of seismic cycles along plate boundaries. A global seismic-moment release history, based on a little more than 100 years of instrumental earthquake data in an extended version of the catalog of Pacheco and Sykes (1992), illustrates similar behavior for Earth as a whole. Although the largest earthquakes have occurred in the circum-Pacific region, an analysis of moment release in the hemisphere antipodal to the Pacific plate shows a very similar pattern. Monte Carlo simulations confirm that the global temporal clustering of great shallow earthquakes during 1952-1964 at M ??? 9.0 is highly significant (4% random probability) as is the clustering of the events of M ??? 8.6 (0.2% random probability) during 1950-1965. We have extended the Pacheco and Sykes (1992) catalog from 1989 through 2001 using Harvard moment centroid data. Immediately after the 1950-1965 cluster, significant quiescence at and above M 8.4 begins and continues until 2001 (0.5% random probability). In alternative catalogs derived by correcting for possible random errors in magnitude estimates in the extended Pacheco-Sykes catalog, the clustering of M ??? 9 persists at a significant level. These observations indicate that, for great earthquakes, Earth behaves as a coherent seismotectonic system. A very-large-scale mechanism for global earthquake triggering and/or stress transfer is implied. There are several candidates, but so far only viscoelastic relaxation has been modeled on a global scale.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2003

Association of earthquakes and faults in the San Francisco Bay area using Bayesian inference

Bayesian inference provides a method to use seismic intensity data or instrumental locations, together with geologic and seismologic data, to make quantitative estimates of the probabilities that specific past earthquakes are associated with specific faults. Probability density functions are constructed for the location of each earthquake, and these are combined with prior probabilities through Bayes' theorem to estimate the probability that an earthquake is associated with a specific fault. Results using this method are presented here for large, preinstrumental, historical earthquakes and for recent earthquakes with instrumental locations in the San Francisco Bay region. The probabilities for individual earthquakes can be summed to construct a probabilistic frequency–magnitude relationship for a fault segment. Other applications of the technique include the estimation of the probability of background earthquakes, that is, earthquakes not associated with known or considered faults, and the estimation of the fraction of the total seismic moment associated with earthquakes less than the characteristic magnitude. Results for the San Francisco Bay region suggest that potentially damaging earthquakes with magnitudes less than the characteristic magnitudes should be expected. Comparisons of earthquake locations and the surface traces of active faults as determined from geologic data show significant disparities, indicating that a complete understanding of the relationship between earthquakes and faults remains elusive.

California↗
USGS1996

Monte Carlo simulation of peak-acceleration attenuation using a finite-fault uniform-patch model including isochrone and extremal characteristics

A finite-fault statistical model of the earthquake source is used to confirm observed magnitude and distance saturation scaling in a large peak-acceleration data set. This model allows us to determine the form of peak-acceleration attenuation curves without a priori assumptions about their shape or scaling properties. The source is composed of patches having uniform size and statistical properties. The primary source parameters are the patch peak-acceleration distribution mean, the distribution standard deviation, the patch size, and patch-rupture duration. Although our model assumes no scaling of peak acceleration with magnitude at the patch, the peak-acceleration attenuation curves, nevertheless, strongly scale with magnitude ( da p /dM ) ≠ 0, and the scaling is distance dependent ( da p /dM ) ∝ f ( r ).

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS1990

Probabilistic earthquake acceleration and velocity maps for the United States and Puerto Rico

The ground-motion maps presented here (maps A-D) show the expected seismic induced or earthquake caused maximum horizontal acceleration and velocity in rock in the contiguous United States, Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico. There is a 90 percent probability that the maximum horizontal acceleration and velocity shown on the maps will not be exceeded in the time periods of 50 and 250 years (average return period for the expected ground motion of 474 and 2,372 years). Rock is taken here to mean material having a shear-wave velocity of between 0.75 and 0.90 kilometers per second. (Algermissen and Perkins, 1976).

Miscellaneous Field Studies Map↗
USGS1984

A comparative ground response study near Los Angeles using recordings of Nevada nuclear tests and the 1971 San Fernando earthquake

A comparative ground response study at sites in the Los Angeles region is based on the extensive strong-motion data set recorded in the 1971 San Fernando earthquake and 159 three-component recordings of distant nuclear tests in Nevada. Amplitude spectral ratios computed for the nuclear test data over those frequency bands for which there is an adequate signal-to-noise ratio provide statistically stable estimates of the local ground response related to the type of local geologic conditions. Comparison of the strong-motion data recorded from the 1971 San Fernando earthquake with that recorded at 28 of the same sites for the nuclear tests show that the corresponding amplitude spectral ratios are statistically equivalent for most sites, provided reference stations are chosen to minimize effects on the earthquake data of azimuthal source variations and crustal propagation path. Statistical equivalence of the spectral ratios for the two types of data sources suggests that amplitude spectral ratios computed with respect to the appropriate reference station provide a first-order estimate of local ground response.

California↗
USGS1984

A seismic hazard map of India and adjacent areas

We have produced a probabilistic seismic hazard map showing peak ground accelerations in rock for India and neighboring areas having a 10% probability of being exceeded in 50 years. Seismogenic zones were identified on the basis of historical seismicity, seismotectonics and geology of the region. Procedures for reducing the incompleteness of earthquake catalogs were followed before estimating recurrence parameters. An eastern United States acceleration attenuation relationship was employed after it was found that intensity attenuation for the Indian region and the eastern United States was similar. The largest probabilistic accelerations are obtained in the seismotectonic belts of Kirthar, Hindukush, Himalaya, Arakan-Yoma, and the Shillong massif where values of over 70% g have been calculated.

Tectonophysics↗
USGS1982

Probabilistic estimates of maximum acceleration and velocity in rock in the contiguous United States

Maximum horizontal accelerations and velocities caused by earthquakes are mapped for exposure times of 10, 50 and 250 years at the 90-percent probability level of nonexceedance for the contiguous United States. In many areas these new maps differ significantly from the 1976 probabilistic acceleration map by Algermlssen and Perkins because of the increase in detail, resulting from greater emphasis on the geologic basis for seismic source zones. This new emphasis is possible because of extensive data recently acquired on Holocene and Quaternary faulting in the western United States and new interpretations of geologic structures controlling the seismicity pattern in the central and eastern United States.

Open-File Report↗
USGS1982

SEISRISK II; a computer program for seismic hazard estimation

The computer program SEISRISK II calculates probabilistic ground motion values for use in seismic hazard mapping. SEISRISK II employs a model that allows earthquakes to occur as points within source zones and as finite-length ruptures along faults. It assumes that earthquake occurrences have a Poisson distribution, that occurrence rates remain constant during the time period considered, that ground motion resulting from an earthquake is a known function of magnitude and distance, that seismically homogeneous source zones are defined, that fault locations are known, that fault rupture lengths depend on magnitude, and that earthquake rates as a function of magnitude are specified for each source. SEISRISK II calculates for each site on a grid of sites the level of ground motion that has a specified probability of being exceeded during a given time period. The program was designed to process a large (essentially unlimited) number of sites and sources efficiently and has been used to produce regional and national maps of seismic hazard.}t is a substantial revision of an earlier program SEISRISK I, which has never been documented. SEISRISK II runs considerably [aster and gives more accurate results than the earlier program and in addition includes rupture length and acceleration variability which were not contained in the original version. We describe the model and how it is implemented in the computer program and provide a flowchart and listing of the code.

Open-File Report↗
USGS1980

Nuclear event time histories and computed site transfer functions for locations in the Los Angeles region

This report presents a collection of Nevada Test Site (NTS) nuclear explosion recordings obtained at sites in the greater Los Angeles, Calif., region. The report includes ground velocity time histories, as well as, derived site transfer functions. These data have been collected as part of a study to evaluate the validity of using low-level ground motions to predict the frequency-dependent response of a site during an earthquake. For this study 19 nuclear events were recorded at 98 separate locations. Some of these sites have recorded more than one of the nuclear explosions, and, consequently, there are a total of 159, three-component station records. The location of all the recording sites are shown in figures 1–5, the station coordinates and abbreviations are given in table 1. The station addresses are listed in table 2, and the nuclear explosions that were recorded are listed in table 3. The recording sites were chosen on the basis of three criteria: (1) that the underlying geological conditions were representative of conditions over significant areas of the region, (2) that the site was the location of a strong-motion recording of the 1971 San Fernando earthquake, or (3) that more complete geographical coverage was required in that location.

California↗