Geology topics
D. H. Root
Publications and source records attributed to D. H. Root.
Computer Monte Carlo simulation in quantitative resource estimation
The method of making quantitative assessments of mineral resources sufficiently detailed for economic analysis is outlined in three steps. The steps are (1) determination of types of deposits that may be present in an area, (2) estimation of the numbers of deposits of the permissible deposit types, and (3) combination by Monte Carlo simulation of the estimated numbers of deposits with the historical grades and tonnages of these deposits to produce a probability distribution of the quantities of contained metal. Two examples of the estimation of the number of deposits (step 2) are given. The first example is for mercury deposits in southwestern Alaska and the second is for lode tin deposits in the Seward Peninsula. The flow of the Monte Carlo simulation program is presented with particular attention to the dependencies between grades and tonnages of deposits and between grades of different metals in the same deposit. ?? 1992 Oxford University Press.
Resource constraints in petroleum production potential
Geologic reasons indicate that the dominant position of the Middle East as a source of conventional petroleum will not be changed by new discoveries elsewhere. The share of world crude oil production coming from the Middle East could increase, within 10 to 20 years, to exceed 50 percent, under even modest increases in world consumption. Nonconventional resources of oil exist in large quantities, but because of their low production rates they can at best only mitigate extant trends. Increased production of natural gas outside the United States, however, offers an opportunity for geographically diversified energy supplies in the near future.
Undiscovered locatable mineral resources of the Tongass National Forest and adjacent lands, southeastern Alaska
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Production capability forecasts of crude oil and natural gas liquids to 2010 for non-OPEC countries
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Undiscovered lode tin resources of the Seward Peninsula, Alaska
The United States is a net importer of many important minerals, including tin. Consumption of primary tin in the United States is about 36,000 metric tons per year. Identified U.S. tin resources consist of about 40,000 metric tons. Although such figures provide insight about vulnerability to supply disruptions in the short term, they do not provide information about the potential of a country to meet its needs for a commodity from undiscovered domestic sources. Recent developments, including the preparation of models of mineral deposits and their grades and tonnages, and the application of computer simulation techniques to the estimation of metallic mineral resources, make it possible to estimate the magnitude of undiscovered resources, by deposit type, for relatively small areas such as the Seward Peninsula. This paper uses these developments and geophysical data to estimate undiscovered lode tin resources on the Seward Peninsula of Alaska. The assessment is based on a three-step methodology that (1) identifies the types of tin deposits that may be present in the region, (2) identifies the geophysical characteristics of unroofed granites and shallow granitoids, and (3) estimates, on the basis of various combinations of geologic and geophysical conditions, the number of undiscovered deposits present within or near exposed or concealed granite plutons. Computer simulation was used to combine the estimates of the number of deposits with available grade and tonnage models. Simulation experiments were designed to estimate the amount of tin in undiscovered deposits under a variety of limiting conditions. Results of simulation experiments indicate there is a 90 percent chance that the Seward Peninsula contains at least 51,000 metric tons, a 50 percent chance that it contains at least 390,000 metric tons, and a 10 percent chance it contains at least 1,100,000 metric tons of tin in undiscovered greisen, vein, and replacement deposits that have average grades of at least 0.5 percent tin.
Estimates of undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources in the United States: A part of the Nation's energy endowment
In 1987, the U.S. Geological Survey and the Minerals Management Service completed a new assessment of the undiscovered conventional resources of crude oil and natural gas in the United States. This assessment responded to a national need for such estimates, considered new geological, technologic, and economic information, and used more definitive methods of resource appraisal than previous assessments. The conventional resources assessed were (1) those considered recoverable under current technology and (2) those that could be developed and produced economically under specified price and cost relationships, excluding exploration costs. This study did not include resources from tar deposits, intractable heavy oil deposits, oil shales, gas in low-permeability (less than 0.1 millidarcy in situ) "tight" reservoirs, coal bed methane, gas in geopressured shales and brines, and natural gas hydrates (clathrates). For this study, the United States was divided into 13 regions (9 onshore and 4 offshore), including the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). The 13 regions were further divided into 115 provinces (appendix A, figs. Al and A2). The resource estimates were based fundamentally upon review and analysis of petroleum geology and the exploration history of oil and gas plays in these provinces. Probability procedures were used in their derivation. Because of the uncertainty in estimating undiscovered resources, the estimated quantities are reported as a range of values that correspond to different probability levels. The undiscovered recoverable conventional resources of oil for the United States, as of January, 1, 1987, are estimated to range from 33 to 70 billion barrels, with a mean estimate of 49 billion barrels: the estimates of gas range from 307 to 507 trillion cubic feet, with a mean estimate of 399 trillion cubic feet (table 1). Range estimates correspond to 95-percent probability (19 in 20 chance) and 5-percent probability (1 in 20 chance) of there being more than those amounts, respectively. Corresponding estimates for natural gas liquids (NGL) range from 6 to 12 billion barrels, with a mean estimate of 9 billion barrels. Further, the assessed undiscovered economically recoverable oil and gas resources for the United States, as of January 1, 1987, are estimated to range from 21 to 54 billion barrels of oil and 208 to 326 trillion cubic feet of gas, corresponding to the 95-percent and 5-percent probabilities of there being more than these amounts, respectively (table 1). The mean value for oil is 35 billion barrels and for gas is 263 trillion cubic feet. Corresponding estimates for NGL range from 5 to 8 billion barrels, with a mean of 6 billion barrels. Distribution of these resources by region is shown in figure 1.
Forecasting petroleum discoveries in sparsely drilled areas: Nigeria and the North Sea
Decline function methods for projecting future discoveries generally capture the crowding effects of wildcat wells on the discovery rate. However, these methods do not accommodate easily situations where exploration areas and horizons are expanding. In this paper, a method is presented that uses a mapping algorithm for separating these often countervailing influences. The method is applied to Nigeria and the North Sea. For an amount of future drilling equivalent to past drilling (825 wildcat wells), future discoveries (in resources found) for Nigeria are expected to decline by 68% per well but still amount to 8.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BOE). Similarly, for the total North Sea for an equivalent amount and mix among areas of past drilling (1322 wildcat wells), future discoveries are expected to amount to 17.9 billion BOE, whereas the average discovery rate per well is expected to decline by 71%. ?? 1988 International Association for Mathematical Geology.
World resources of crude oil, natural gas, natural bitumen, and shale oil
No abstract available.
Quantitative estimation of undiscovered mineral resources: A case study of US Forest Service Wilderness tracts in the Pacific Mountain system
The need by land managers and planners for more quantitative measures of mineral values has prompted scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey to test a probabilistic method of mineral resource assessment on a portion of the wilderness lands that have been studied by the Survey during the past 20 years. A quantitative estimate of undiscovered mineral resources is made by linking the techniques of subjective estimation, geologic mineral deposit models, and Monte Carlo simulation. The study, which uses grade-tonnage and occurrence models for 21 geologic deposit types, considers 91 U.S. Forest Service wilderness tracts in California, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington. Estimates of the amounts of the 11 metals contained in undiscovered mineral deposits of the types studied range from negligible to several years of U.S. consumption. Although these estimates are limited to metals contained in undiscovered deposits of a small number of metallic mineral deposit types, the assessment procedure can be expanded by the use of additional deposit models and by using information about identified mineral resources. This will allow models of economic processes such as exploration, development, and production to be applied.
Survey and appraisal of US energy resources: Production and consumption
No abstract available.
Some practical approaches to world petroleum resource assessment
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Quantification of undiscovered mineral-resource assessment; the case study of U.S. Forest Service wilderness tracts in the Pacific mountain system
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Estimating usable resources from historical industry data
Historical production statistics are used to predict the quantity of remaining usable resources. The commodities considered are mercury, copper and its byproducts gold and silver, and petroleum; the production and discovery data are for the United States. The results of the study indicate that the cumulative return per unit of effort, herein measured as grade of metal ores and discovery rate of recoverable petroleum, is proportional to a negative power of total effort expended, herein measured as total ore mined and total exploratory wells or footage drilled. This power relationship can be extended to some limiting point (a lower ore grade or a maximum number of exploratory wells or footage), and the apparent quantity of available remaining resource at that limit can be calculated. For mercury ore of grades at and above 0.1 percent, the remaining usable resource in the United States is calculated to be 54 million kg (1,567,000 flasks). For copper ore of grades at and above 0.2 percent, the remaining usable copper resource is calculated to be 270 million metric tons (298 million short tons); remaining resources of its by-products gold and silver are calculated to be 3,656 metric tons (118 million troy ounces) and 64,676 metric tons (2,079 million troy ounces), respectively. The undiscovered recoverable crude oil resource in the conterminous United States, at 3 billion feet of additional exploratory drilling, is calculated to be nearly 37.6 billion barrels; the undiscovered recoverable petroleum resource in the Permian basin of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico, at 300 million feet of additional exploratory drilling or 50,000 additional exploratory wells, is calculated to be about 6.2 billion BOE (barrels of oil equivalent).
Resource estimation from historical data: Mercury, a test case
A simple technique based on historical records of tonnage and grade of ore produced provides a means for calculating how much of a mineral product will be available in the future at various average grades. Estimates made on this basis are independent of geologic considerations or changing economic and political factors, although they are based on mining history, which was largely determined by these factors. The relatively minor element, mercury, was used for the test case reported here, but the method has been found applicable to forecasts of resources for other mineral products. Mercury resources available in ore in which the average grade is as low as 0.1% are estimated to be 53 ??106kg (1.5 ??106flasks) for the United States and 1551 ??106kg (45 ??106flasks) for the world; this amount is more than adequate to meet predicted demand to the year 2000. The expectable price of mercury in 1978 dollars at this 0.1% grade is projected to be $58.75 per kg ($2,025 per flask), but at a 10% annual inflation rate, it would be more than $12,000 per flask. To satisfy just the projected U.S. demand for mercury by 2000, the price is calculated to be $48.96 per kg ($1,688 per flask) in 1978 dollars at an average annual grade of 0.12%. ?? 1980 Plenum Publishing Corporation.
Analysis of petroleum discovery data: A forecast of the date of peak production
No abstract available.