Geology topics

D. G. Robertson

Publications and source records attributed to D. G. Robertson.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2023

A review of common natural disasters as analogs for asteroid impact effects and cascading hazards

Modern civilization has no collective experience with possible wide-ranging effects from a medium-sized asteroid impactor. Currently, modeling efforts that predict initial effects from a meteor impact or airburst provide needed information for initial preparation and evacuation plans, but longer-term cascading hazards are not typically considered. However, more common natural disasters, such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, wildfires, dust storms, and hurricanes, are likely analogs that can provide the scope and scale of these potential effects. These events, especially the larger events with cascading effects, are key for understanding the scope and complexity of mitigation, relief, and recovery efforts for a medium-sized asteroid impact event. This paper reviews the initial and cascading effects of these natural hazards, describes the state of the art for modeling these hazards, and discusses the relevance of these hazards to expected long-term effects of an asteroid impact. Emergency managers, resource managers and planners, and research scientists involved in mitigation and recovery efforts would likely derive significant benefit from a framework linking multiple hazard models to provide a seamless sequence of related forecasts.

Natural Hazards↗

USGS2023

Asteroid impacts and cascading hazards

The initial effects from an asteroid impact are generally well characterized and include thermal radiation and blast waves. If the impactor is sufficiently large, either an earthquake or tsunami can also result, depending on whether the impact occurs over land or water. However, the longer-term effects that extend beyond the area initially affected are less well characterized. Because regional effects not only depend on the size of the impactor, but also on the location and timing of the event, case studies of impact events in various regions should be conducted to better understand how asteroid impact induced cascading hazards may vary. For this study, we use the initial impact effects from an 800-m asteroid strike at two locations: Dallas, TX, USA and Jebba, Nigeria. A detailed analysis of the regional impacts on Texas and Nigeria will be presented at the time of the conference.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2021

Planetary defense preparedness: Identifying the potential for post-asteroid impact time delayed and geographically displaced hazards

A considerable amount of effort has been done to quantify impact effects from the impact of an asteroid. The effects usually considered are: blast, overpressure shock, thermal radiation, cratering, seismic shaking, ejecta, and tsunami (e.g. Hills & Goda, 1993; Collins et al., 2005, Rumpf et al., 2017). These first-order effects typically are localized in time and diminish with increased distance from the impact (or air burst) location. However, there are delayed effects that will propagate through time and occur in areas not immediately affected by the initial impact. These delayed effects include, but are not limited to, down-stream and down-wind effects. Down-stream effects could occur months after the impact as sediment and debris are washed into reservoirs, potentially impacting water quality for populations not originally affected by the impact event. Down-wind effects could deposit dust and debris hundreds or thousands of kilometers down-wind, reducing insolation and ultimately settling out over large areas which could include cropland. Depending on when this occurs, significant damage could occur to croplands, thus reducing or eliminating whole sections of the global food chain. In addition, depending on the amount of ashfall, the deposition of dust and debris could cross watershed boundaries and thus affect water quality for a larger population than just those who live in the initial impacted watershed. For most smaller asteroid impacts, these delayed effects can be neglected. However, there are likely a class of impacts (e.g. impactor size and composition, impact location and time of year) where failure to consider these effects could complicate post-impact relief and recovery efforts. For example, evacuation of the population within the initial damage zone from an impact to a city down-stream could exacerbate water quality issues and water usage months later. An impact in western Nebraska might have minimal civil defense requirements for evacuation (due to the low population density) but the down-wind effects could disrupt both the economic health of the American Midwest while threatening global food security. Understanding when these time-delayed and geographically displaced effects become relevant is key to successful civil defense and recovery planning.

Bulletin of the AAS↗

USGS2021

Asteroid impacts - downwind and downstream effects

For this abstract, we have selected an impact location, consistent with the PDC2021 initial scenario [1], in the San Juan Mountains, in southwestern Colorado. This is a low-density population area but is part of the watershed system within the Colorado River basin, a major source for water and power for the southwestern United States. Several large cities and major airports are potentially downwind from this area. For the PDC2021 scenario [1], a 120-meter impactor is the median expected size. We chose impactor sizes ranging from 42-meters to 600-meters, which covers the 0.1% smallest to largest cases.

Colorado↗