Geology topics

Cynthia Wallace

Publications and source records attributed to Cynthia Wallace.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2022

Climate and land change impacts on future managed wetland habitat: A case study from California’s Central Valley

Concept California’s Central Valley provides critical habitat for migratory waterbirds, yet only 10% of naturally occurring wetlands remain. Competition for limited water supplies and climate change will impact the long-term viability of these intensively managed habitats. Objectives Forecast the distribution, abundance, and connectivity of surface water and managed wetland habitats, using 5 spatially explicit (270 m 2 ) climate/land use/water prioritization scenarios. Mapping potential future dynamic flooded habitat used by waterbirds and other wetland-dependent wildlife to inform management decisions. Methods We integrated a climate-driven hydrologic water use model with a spatially explicit land change model, to examine stakeholder-driven scenarios of future land change, climate, and water use and their impacts on future habitat availability. Results Declining water availability is the dominant driver of habitat loss across scenarios. The hot/dry scenarios showed the greatest declines in January flooded area by 2101—an important month for overwintering waterbirds. In contrast, higher water supplies in wet climates drive perennial cropland conversion and loss of potential habitat. Potential flooded cropland declined (25 and 33%) under warmer/wetter climate conditions due to this conversion to perennial crops, exposing habitat vulnerability. Conclusion Climate-driven loss of water availability had a greater impact on flooded habitat availability than land-use change. When combined, climate change and the conversion of potentially flooded cropland to perennial cropland will threaten future waterbird habitat particularly in January, the peak of the migratory bird season, even when habitat restoration goals are met. Stakeholder-informed scenario analysis can identify target areas for potential habitat change, vulnerability, and conservation.

California↗

USGS2020

Quantifying drought’s influence on moist soil seed vegetation in California’s Central Valley through time-series remote sensing

Californias Central Valley, USA is a critical component of the Pacific Flyway despite loss of more than 90% of its wetlands. Moist soil seed (MSS) wetland plants are now produced by mimicking seasonal flooding in managed wetlands to provide an essential food resource for waterfowl. Managers need MSS plant area and productivity estimates to support waterfowl conservation, yet this remains unknown at the landscape scale. Also the effects of recent drought on MSS plants have not been quantified. We generated Landsat-derived estimates of extents and productivity (seed yield or its proxy, the green chlorophyll index) of major MSS plants including watergrass (Echinochloa crusgalli) and smartweed (Polygonum spp.) (WGSW), and swamp timothy (Crypsis schoenoides) (ST) in all Central Valley managed wetlands from 20072017. We tested the effects of water year, land ownership and region on plant area and productivity with a multifactor nested analysis of variance. For the San Joaquin Valley we explored the association between water year and water supply, and we developed metrics to support management decisions. MSS plant area maps were based on a support vector machine classification of Landsat phenology metrics (2017 map overall accuracy: 89%). ST productivity maps were created with a linear regression model of seed yield (n=68, R2 = 0.53, normalized RMSE = 10.5%). The Central Valley-wide estimated area for ST in 2017 was 32,369 ha 2,524 ha (95% C.I.), and 13,012 ha 1,384 ha for WGSW. Mean ST seed yield ranged from 577 kg/ha in the Delta Basin to 365 kg/ha in the San Joaquin Basin. WGSW area and ST seed yield decreased while ST area increased in critical drought years compared to normal water years (Scheffes test, p<0.05). Greatest ST area increases occurred in the Sacramento Valley (~75%). Voluntary water deliveries increased in normal water years, and ST seed yield increased with water supply. Z-scores of ST seed yield can be used to evaluate wetland performance and aid resource allocation decisions. Updated maps will support habitat monitoring, conservation planning and water management in future years, which are likely to face greater uncertainty in water availability with climate change.

California↗

USGS2020

Quantifying drought’s influence on moist soil seed vegetation in California’s Central Valley through remote sensing

Across the Central Valley of California, millions of wintering waterfowl rely on moist soil seed (MSS) plants that grow in managed seasonal wetlands as a critical source of food. Estimates of MSS plant production are used to set waterfowl habitat targets yet this information is not well known. We created the first Central Valley-wide time series maps of MSS plant distributions and productivity. We found that MSS plant seed yield declined in critical drought years, which corresponded with reduced water delivery to managed wetlands. Our results provide improved food resource estimates and information to help managers prioritize actions as water supply becomes more uncertain with climate change.

California↗

USGS2017

Fallow-land Algorithm based on Neighborhood and TemporalAnomalies (FANTA) to map planted versus fallowed croplands usingMODIS data to assist in drought studies leading to water and foodsecurity assessments

An important metric to monitor for optimizing water use in agricultural areas is the amount of cropland left fallowed, or unplanted. Fallowed croplands are difficult to model because they have many expressions; for example, they can be managed and remain free of vegetation or be abandoned and become weedy if the climate for that season permits. We used 250 m, 8-day composite Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer normalized difference vegetation index data to develop an algorithm that can routinely map cropland status (planted or fallowed) with over 75% user’s and producer’s accuracies. The Fallow-land Algorithm based on Neighborhood and Temporal Anomalies (FANTA) compares the current greenness of a cultivated pixel to its historical greenness and to the greenness of all cultivated pixels within a defined spatial neighborhood, and is therefore transportable across space and through time. This article introduces FANTA and applies it to California from 2001 to 2015 as a case study for use in data-poor places and for use in historical modeling. Timely and accurate knowledge of the extent of fallowing can provide decision makers with insights and knowledge to mitigate the impacts of drought and provide a scientific basis for effective management response. This study is part of the WaterSMART (Sustain and Manage America’s Resources for Tomorrow) project, an interdisciplinary and collaborative research effort focused on improving water conservation and optimizing water use.

California↗

USGS2016

Cumulative drought and land-use impacts on perennial vegetation across a North American dryland region

Question The decline and loss of perennial vegetation in dryland ecosystems due to global change pressures can alter ecosystem properties and initiate land degradation processes. We tracked changes of perennial vegetation using remote sensing to address the question of how prolonged drought and land-use intensification have affected perennial vegetation cover across a desert region in the early 21st century? Location Mojave Desert, southeastern California, southern Nevada, southwestern Utah and northwestern Arizona, USA. Methods We coupled the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Enhanced Vegetation Index (MODIS-EVI) with ground-based measurements of perennial vegetation cover taken in about 2000 and about 2010. Using the difference between these years, we determined perennial vegetation changes in the early 21st century and related these shifts to climate, soil and landscape properties, and patterns of land use. Results We found a good fit between MODIS-EVI and perennial vegetation cover (2000: R 2 = 0.83 and 2010: R 2 = 0.74). The southwestern, far southeastern and central Mojave Desert had large declines in perennial vegetation cover in the early 21st century, while the northeastern and southeastern portions of the desert had increases. These changes were explained by 10-yr precipitation anomalies, particularly in the cool season and during extreme dry or wet years. Areas heavily impacted by visitor use or wildfire lost perennial vegetation cover, and vegetation in protected areas increased to a greater degree than in unprotected areas. Conclusions We find that we can extrapolate previously documented declines of perennial plant cover to an entire desert, and demonstrate that prolonged water shortages coupled with land-use intensification create identifiable patterns of vegetation change in dryland regions.

Applied Vegetation Science↗