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Crawford S. Holling

Publications and source records attributed to Crawford S. Holling.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

The importance of scaling for detecting community patterns: success and failure in assemblages of introduced species

Community saturation can help to explain why biological invasions fail. However, previous research has documented inconsistent relationships between failed invasions ( i.e ., an invasive species colonizes but goes extinct) and the number of species present in the invaded community. We use data from bird communities of the Hawaiian island of Oahu, which supports a community of 38 successfully established introduced birds and where 37 species were introduced but went extinct (failed invasions). We develop a modified approach to evaluate the effects of community saturation on invasion failure. Our method accounts (1) for the number of species present (NSP) when the species goes extinct rather than during its introduction; and (2) scaling patterns in bird body mass distributions that accounts for the hierarchical organization of ecosystems and the fact that interaction strength amongst species varies with scale. We found that when using NSP at the time of extinction, NSP was higher for failed introductions as compared to successful introductions, supporting the idea that increasing species richness and putative community saturation mediate invasion resistance. Accounting for scale-specific patterns in body size distributions further improved the relationship between NSP and introduction failure. Results show that a better understanding of invasion outcomes can be obtained when scale-specific community structure is accounted for in the analysis.

Hawaii

Panarchy: theory and application

The concept of panarchy provides a framework that characterizes complex systems of people and nature as dynamically organized and structured within and across scales of space and time. It has been more than a decade since the introduction of panarchy. Over this period, its invocation in peer-reviewed literature has been steadily increasing, but its use remains primarily descriptive and abstract. Here, we discuss the use of the concept in the literature to date, highlight where the concept may be useful, and discuss limitations to the broader applicability of panarchy theory for research in the ecological and social sciences. Finally, we forward a set of testable hypotheses to evaluate key propositions that follow from panarchy theory.

Ecosystems

Adaptive inference for distinguishing credible from incredible patterns in nature

Strong inference is a powerful and rapid tool that can be used to identify and explain patterns in molecular biology, cell biology, and physiology. It is effective where causes are single and separable and where discrimination between pairwise alternative hypotheses can be determined experimentally by a simple yes or no answer. But causes in ecological systems are multiple and overlapping and are not entirely separable. Frequently, competing hypotheses cannot be distinguished by a single unambiguous test, but only by a suite of tests of different kinds, that produce a body of evidence to support one line of argument and not others. We call this process "adaptive inference". Instead of pitting each member of a pair of hypotheses against each other, adaptive inference relies on the exuberant invention of multiple, competing hypotheses, after which carefully structured comparative data are used to explore the logical consequences of each. Herein we present an example that demonstrates the attributes of adaptive inference that have developed out of a 30-year study of the resilience of ecosystems.

Ecosystems