Geology topics

Collin G. Homer

Publications and source records attributed to Collin G. Homer.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2021

U.S. Geological Survey science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative—2018 annual report

The Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) was established in 2007 as a collaborative interagency partnership to develop and implement science-based conservation actions. During the past 11 years, partners from U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), State and Federal land management agencies, universities, and the public have collaborated to implement a long-term (more than 10 years) science-based program that assesses and enhances the quality and quantity of wildlife habitats in the southwest Wyoming region while facilitating responsible development. The USGS WLCI Science Team completes scientific research and develops tools that inform and support WLCI partner planning, decision making, and on-the-ground management actions. In fiscal year 2018, the USGS initiated 3 new projects and continued efforts on 21 ongoing science and web-development projects. The first new project was initiated to support Secretarial Order 3362 which calls on the USGS to assist Western States in mapping big-game migration corridors and developing new mapping tools. During 2018, the USGS hosted a workshop in Laramie, Wyoming, which included more than 70 State and Federal wildlife experts from Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, and Wyoming. Most of the mapping and migration tool curricula used in the workshop were derived from prior WLCI studies and mapping efforts of big-game migration movement in habitats undergoing large-scale energy development. The second new project was in response for WLCI partners to better understand sedimentation and hydrogeomorphic processes in a cold-desert headwater and the third new project was designed to improve our approach for people to access, manage, and analyze WLCI data and WLCI resource information. The USGS published 18 products (including peer-reviewed journal articles, USGS series publications, and data releases) and provided more than a dozen professional oral and poster presentations at scientific meetings and numerous informal presentations to WLCI partners at meetings and workshops. This report summarizes the objectives and status of each project and highlights the USGS 2018 accomplishments and products.

Wyoming↗

USGS2020

Conterminous United States land cover change patterns 2001–2016 from the 2016 National Land Cover Database

The 2016 National Land Cover Database (NLCD) product suite (available on www.mrlc.gov), includes Landsat-based, 30 m resolution products over the conterminous (CONUS) United States (U.S.) for land cover, urban imperviousness, and tree, shrub, herbaceous and bare ground fractional percentages. The release of NLCD 2016 provides important new information on land change patterns across CONUS from 2001-2016. For land cover, seven epochs were concurrently generated for years 2001, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2011, 2013, and 2016. Products reveal that land cover change is significant across most land cover classes and time periods. The land cover product was validated using existing reference data from the legacy NLCD 2011 accuracy assessment, applied to the 2011 epoch of the NLCD 2016 product line. The legacy and new NLCD 2011 overall accuracies were 82% and 83%, respectively, (standard error was 0.5%), demonstrating a small but significant increase in overall accuracy. Between 2001-2016, the CONUS landscape experienced significant change, with almost 8% of the landscape having experienced a land cover change at least once during this time. Nearly 50% of that change involves forest, driven by change agents of harvest, fire, disease and pests that resulted in an overall forest decline, including increasing fragmentation and loss of interior forest. Agricultural change represented 15.9% of the change, with total agricultural spatial extent showing only a slight increase of 4,778 km2, however there was a substantial decline (7.94%) in pasture/hay during this time, transitioning mostly to cultivated crop. Water and wetland change comprised 15.2% of change and represent highly dynamic land cover classes from epoch to epoch, heavily influenced by precipitation. Grass and shrub change comprise 14.5% of the total change, with most change resulting from fire. Developed change was the most persistent and permanent land change increase adding almost 29,000 km2 over 15 years (5.6% of total CONUS change), with southern states exhibiting expansion much faster than most of the northern states. Temporal rates of developed change increased in 2001-2006 at twice the rate of 2011-2016, reflecting a slowdown in CONUS economic activity. Future NLCD plans include increasing monitoring frequency, reducing latency time between satellite imaging and product delivery, improving accuracy and expanding the variety of products available in an integrated database.

ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing↗

USGS2020

Departures of rangeland fractional component cover and land cover from landsat-based ecological potential in Wyoming USA

Monitoring rangelands by identifying the departure of contemporary conditions from long-term ecological potential allows for the disentanglement of natural biophysical gradients driving change from changes associated with land uses and other disturbance types. We developed maps of ecological potential (EP) for shrub, sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.), perennial herbaceous, litter, and bare ground fractional cover in Wyoming, USA. EP maps correspond to the potential natural vegetation cover expected by environmental conditions in the absence of anthropogenic and natural disturbance as represented by the greenest and least disturbed period of the Landsat archive. EP was predicted using regression tree models with inputs of soil maps and spectral data associated with the 75th percentile of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index in the Landsat archive. We trained our EP models with 2015 component cover maps on ecologically intact sites with relatively lower bare ground than expected. We generated departure of vegetation cover by comparing the EP and 2015 fractional cover. The departures represent land cover change from potential land cover and/or within-state changes in 2015. Next, we converted EP and 2015 fractional cover maps into thematic land cover and evaluated departure to determine if it was great enough to result in land cover change. The 2015 conditions showed reduced shrub, sagebrush, litter, and perennial herbaceous cover and increased bare ground relative to EP. Known disturbances, such as energy development, fires, and vegetation treatments, are clearly visible on the departure maps, but not on EP component maps. The most frequent departure from EP land cover was shrubland conversion to grassland. Land cover departures can be explained only in small part by known disturbance, and instead are ostensibly related to climate and land management practices. These drivers result in land cover departures that broadened the ecotone between shrubland and grassland relative to EP.

Wyoming↗

USGS2019

Validating a landsat time-series of fractional component cover across western U.S. Rangelands

Western U.S. rangelands have been quantified as six fractional cover (0%–100%) components over the Landsat archive (1985–2018) at a 30 m resolution, termed the “Back-in-Time” (BIT) dataset. Robust validation through space and time is needed to quantify product accuracy. Here, we used field data collected concurrently with high-resolution satellite (HRS) images over multiple locations (n = 42) and years. Field observations were used to train regression tree models, predicting the component cover across each HRS image. Our objectives were to evaluate the spatial and temporal relationships between HRS and BIT component cover and compare spatio-temporal climate responses. First, for each HRS site-year (n = 77) we averaged both the HRS and BIT predictions within each site separately and regressed the averages to quantify the temporal accuracy. Next, we regressed individual pixel values of corresponding HRS and BIT predictions to quantify the spatio-temporal accuracy. Results showed strong temporal correlations with an average R2 of 0.63 and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 5.47% as well as strong spatio-temporal correlations with an average R2 of 0.52 and RMSE of 7.89% across components. Our approach increased the validation sample size relative to direct comparison of field observations. Validation results showed robust spatio-temporal relationships between HRS and BIT data, providing increased user confidence in the data.

Remote Sensing↗

USGS2019

Pre‐fire vegetation drives post‐fire outcomes in sagebrush ecosystems: Evidence from field and remote sensing data

Understanding the factors that influence vegetation responses to disturbance is important because vegetation is the foundation of food resources, wildlife habitat, and ecosystem properties and processes. We integrated vegetation cover data derived from field plots and remotely sensed Landsat images in two focal areas over a 37‐yr period (1979–2016) to investigate how historical changes to community composition influence contemporary responses of vegetation to fire in sagebrush ecosystems in the Great Basin. Our objectives were (1) to quantify the magnitude and direction of change in the cover of native and exotic plant functional groups in relation to their exposure to fire; (2) to relate plant community changes to their historical composition, exposure to fire, and environmental conditions; and (3) to test for consistency of trends revealed by vegetation cover data derived from field plots and Landsat images. Historical (1979–1981) field data originated from 298 locations, Landsat‐derived data and contemporary (2011–2016) field data originated from 448 locations, and an expanded set of locations were included in some analyses of Landsat‐derived data. We found that areas burned by fire since the 1980s had higher annual herbaceous cover than unburned areas both historically and contemporarily. Models revealed a significant interaction between historical community composition and exposure to fire, which suggests that plots with historically high herbaceous cover were more susceptible to burning. Trends revealed by field and Landsat‐derived cover data were only partially consistent, potentially due in part to methods used to predict cover values from Landsat images, and the time period over which each data set was collected. Our results suggest that burned areas historically occupied by sagebrush‐dominated plant communities may have been invaded by exotic annuals prior to burning, possibly because of prior land uses, and after burning, have now transitioned to a persistent herbaceous‐dominated state. This type of state transition has important consequences for forage quality, wildlife habitat, soil nutrients, and future disturbances, such as drought and wildfire.

Oregon, Nevada↗

USGS2019

Influences of potential oil and gas development and future climate on Sage-grouse declines and redistribution

Multiple environmental stressors impact wildlife populations, but we often know little about their cumulative and combined influences on population outcomes. We generally know more about past effects than potential future impacts, and direct influences such as changes of habitat footprints than indirect, long-term responses in behavior, distribution, or abundance. Yet, an understanding of all these components is needed to plan for future landscapes that include human activities and wildlife. We developed a case study to assess how spatially explicit individual-based modeling could be used to evaluate future population outcomes of gradual landscape change from multiple stressors. For Greater Sage-grouse in southwest Wyoming, USA, we projected oil and gas development footprints and climate-induced vegetation changes 50 years into the future. Using a time-series of planned oil and gas development and predicted climate-induced changes in vegetation, we recalculated habitat selection maps to dynamically modify future habitat quantity, quality, and configuration. We simulated long-term Sage-grouse responses to habitat change by allowing individuals to adjust to shifts in habitat availability and quality. The use of spatially explicit individual-based modeling offered a useful means of evaluating delayed indirect impacts of landscape change on wildlife population outcomes. The inclusion of movement and demographic responses to oil and gas infrastructure resulted in substantive changes in distribution and abundance when cumulated over several decades and throughout the regional population. When combined, additive development and climate-induced vegetation changes reduced abundance by up to half of the original size. In our example, the consideration of only a single population stressor the final possible population size by as much as 50%. Multiple stressors and their cumulative impacts need to be broadly considered through space and time to avoid underestimating the impacts of multiple gradual changes and overestimating the ability of populations to withstand change.

Wyoming↗

USGS2019

U.S. Geological Survey science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative—2017 annual report

The Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) was established in 2008 to address the scientific and conservation questions associated with land use changes because of energy development and other factors in southwest Wyoming. Over the past decade, partners from U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), State and Federal land management agencies, universities, and the public have collaborated to implement a long-term (defined here as more than 10 years), science-based program that assesses and enhances the quality and quantity of wildlife habitats in this region while facilitating responsible development. The USGS Science Team completes scientific research and develops tools that inform and support WLCI partner planning, decision making, and on-the-ground management actions. In fiscal year 2017, USGS published 18 products (including peer-reviewed journal articles, USGS series publications, and data releases), prepared an additional 7 products for publication, and presented 14 talks or posters at professional scientific meetings in addition to numerous informal presentations to WLCI partners at meetings and workshops. In this report, we summarize the science themes that describe USGS science for the WLCI and highlight work completed in fiscal year 2017 for each science theme. We also provide information on how USGS science is being used by land managers to better achieve habitat conservation objectives.

Wyoming↗

USGS2019

Using remote sensing to quantify ecosystem site potential community structure and deviation in the Great Basin, United States

The semi-arid Great Basin region in the Northwest U.S. is impacted by a suite of change agents including fire, grazing, and climate variability to which native vegetation can have low resilience and resistance. Assessing ecosystem condition in relation to these change agents is difficult due to a lack of a consistent and objective Site Potential (SP) information of the conditions biophysically possible at each site. Our objectives were to assess and quantify patterns in ecosystem condition, based on actual fractional component cover and a SP map and to evaluate drivers of change. We used long-term 90th percentile Landsat NDVI(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and biophysical variables to produce a map of SP. Ecosystem condition was assessed using two methods, first we integrated fractional components into an index which was regressed against SP. Regression confidence intervals were used to segment the study area into normal, over-, and under-performing relative to SP. Next, the relationships between SP and fractional component cover produced SP expected component cover, from which we mapped the actual cover deviation. Much of the study area is within the range of conditions expected by the SP model, but degraded conditions are more common than those above SP expectations. We found that shrub cover deviation is more positive at higher elevation, while herbaceous cover deviation has the opposite pattern, supporting the hypothesis that more resistant and resilient sites are less likely to change from the shrub dominated legacy. Another key finding was that regions with significant annual herbaceous invasions tend to have lower than expected bare ground and shrub cover.

Great Basin↗

USGS2018

U.S. Geological Survey science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative—2016 annual report

This is the ninth annual report highlighting U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) science and decision-support activities conducted for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI). The activities address specific management needs identified by WLCI partner agencies. In fiscal year (FY) 2016, there were 26 active USGS WLCI science-based projects. Of these 26 projects, one project was new for FY2016, and three were completed by the end of the fiscal year (though final products were still in preparation or review). USGS WLCI projects were grouped under five categories: (1) Baseline Synthesis, (2) Long-Term Monitoring, (3) Effectiveness Monitoring, (4) Mechanistic Studies of Wildlife, and (5) Data and Information Management. Each of these topic areas is designed to address WLCI management needs: identifying key drivers of change, identifying the condition and distribution of key wildlife species and habitats and of species’ habitat requirements, development of an integrated inventory and monitoring strategy, use of emerging technologies and development and testing of innovative methods for maximizing the efficiency and efficacy of monitoring efforts, evaluating the effectiveness of habitat treatment projects, evaluating the responses of wildlife to development, and developing a data clearinghouse and information management framework to support and provide access to results of most USGS WLCI projects. In FY2016, we assisted with updating the WLCI Conservation Action Plan and associated databases as part of the Comprehensive Assessment, and we also assisted with the Bureau of Land Management 2015 WLCI annual report. By the end of FY2016, we completed or had nearly completed assessments of WLCI energy and mineral resources and had submitted a manuscript on modeled effects of oil and gas development on wildlife to a peer-reviewed journal. We also initiated a study on the effects of wind energy on wildlife in the WLCI region. A USGS circular on WLCI long-term monitoring was in review at the end of the fiscal year, and seven projects monitoring water and vegetation (including changes in sagebrush cover and patterns of sagebrush mortality) continued through the year. USGS scientists continued many projects in FY2016 that evaluate the effectiveness of habitat conservation actions (including sagebrush, cheatgrass, and aspen habitat treatments) and provide tools in support of mechanistic studies of wildlife. In FY2016, USGS scientists, along with university and State partners, continued work on five focal wildlife species/communities (pygmy rabbits [ Brachylagus idahoensis ], greater sage grouse , mule deer, sagebrush songbirds, and native fish). In FY2016, the USGS Information Management Team presented information to WLCI scientists on how USGS tools and resources can be used to fulfill the requirements of new USGS policies regarding data release, data management, and data visualization.

Wyoming↗

USGS2017

Methods for converting continuous shrubland ecosystem component values to thematic National Land Cover Database classes

The National Land Cover Database (NLCD) provides thematic land cover and land cover change data at 30-meter spatial resolution for the United States. Although the NLCD is considered to be the leading thematic land cover/land use product and overall classification accuracy across the NLCD is high, performance and consistency in the vast shrub and grasslands of the Western United States is lower than desired. To address these issues and fulfill the needs of stakeholders requiring more accurate rangeland data, the USGS has developed a method to quantify these areas in terms of the continuous cover of several cover components. These components include the cover of shrub, sagebrush ( Artemisia spp), big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata spp.), herbaceous, annual herbaceous, litter, and bare ground, and shrub and sagebrush height. To produce maps of component cover, we collected field data that were then associated with spectral values in WorldView-2 and Landsat imagery using regression tree models. The current report outlines the procedures and results of converting these continuous cover components to three thematic NLCD classes: barren, shrubland, and grassland. To accomplish this, we developed a series of indices and conditional models using continuous cover of shrub, bare ground, herbaceous, and litter as inputs. The continuous cover data are currently available for two large regions in the Western United States. Accuracy of the “cross-walked” product was assessed relative to that of NLCD 2011 at independent validation points ( n =787) across these two regions. Overall thematic accuracy of the “cross-walked” product was 0.70, compared to 0.63 for NLCD 2011. The kappa value was considerably higher for the “cross-walked” product at 0.41 compared to 0.28 for NLCD 2011. Accuracy was also evaluated relative to the values of training points ( n =75,000) used in the development of the continuous cover components. Again, the “cross-walked” product outperformed NLCD 2011, with an overall accuracy of 0.81, compared to 0.66 for NLCD 2011. These results demonstrated that our continuous cover predictions and models were successful in increasing thematic classification accuracy in Western United States shrublands. We plan to directly use the “cross-walked” product, where available, in the NLCD 2016 product.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2017

Historical cover trends in a sagebrush steppe ecosystem from 1985 to 2013: Links with climate, disturbance, and management

Understanding the causes and consequences of component change in sagebrush steppe is crucial for evaluating ecosystem sustainability. The sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) steppe ecosystem of the northwest USA has been impacted by the invasion of exotic grasses, increasing fire return intervals, changing land management practices, and fragmentation, often lowering the overall resilience to change. We utilized contemporary and historical Landsat imagery, field data, and regression tree models to produce fractional cover maps of rangeland components (shrub, sagebrush, herbaceous, bare ground, and litter) through the last 30 years. Our main goals were to (1) investigate rangeland component trends over 30 years, (2) evaluate the magnitude and direction of trends in components and climate drivers and their relationship, and (3) assess component trends influenced by climate. Results indicated that over the study period, shrub, sage, herbaceous, and litter cover decreased, while bare ground cover increased. Measured rates of change ranged from − 0.14% decade −1 for shrub cover to 0.05% decade −1 for bare ground, whereas herbaceous and litter cover trends were negligible. Net landscape cover changes were consistent with expectations of climate change and disturbance producing a loss of biotic cover, and converting a portion of shrub and sagebrush to herbaceous cover. Overall, fire and related successional recovery was the greatest change agent for all components in terms of area and cover change, while increasing minimum temperature, at a rate of 0.66°C decade −1 , was found to be the most significant climate driver.

California, Nevada, Oregon↗

USGS2017

A land cover change detection and classification protocol for updating Alaska NLCD 2001 to 2011

Monitoring and mapping land cover changes are important ways to support evaluation of the status and transition of ecosystems. The Alaska National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2001 was the first 30-m resolution baseline land cover product of the entire state derived from circa 2001 Landsat imagery and geospatial ancillary data. We developed a comprehensive approach named AKUP11 to update Alaska NLCD from 2001 to 2011 and provide a 10-year cyclical update of the state's land cover and land cover changes. Our method is designed to characterize the main land cover changes associated with different drivers, including the conversion of forests to shrub and grassland primarily as a result of wildland fire and forest harvest, the vegetation successional processes after disturbance, and changes of surface water extent and glacier ice/snow associated with weather and climate changes. For natural vegetated areas, a component named AKUP11-VEG was developed for updating the land cover that involves four major steps: 1) identify the disturbed and successional areas using Landsat images and ancillary datasets; 2) update the land cover status for these areas using a SKILL model (System of Knowledge-based Integrated-trajectory Land cover Labeling); 3) perform decision tree classification; and 4) develop a final land cover and land cover change product through the postprocessing modeling. For water and ice/snow areas, another component named AKUP11-WIS was developed for initial land cover change detection, removal of the terrain shadow effects, and exclusion of ephemeral snow changes using a 3-year MODIS snow extent dataset from 2010 to 2012. The overall approach was tested in three pilot study areas in Alaska, with each area consisting of four Landsat image footprints. The results from the pilot study show that the overall accuracy in detecting change and no-change is 90% and the overall accuracy of the updated land cover label for 2011 is 86%. The method provided a robust, consistent, and efficient means for capturing major disturbance events and updating land cover for Alaska. The method has subsequently been applied to generate the land cover and land cover change products for the entire state of Alaska.

Alaska↗

USGS2016

Forecasting climate change impacts on plant populations over large spatial extents

Plant population models are powerful tools for predicting climate change impacts in one location, but are difficult to apply at landscape scales. We overcome this limitation by taking advantage of two recent advances: remotely sensed, species-specific estimates of plant cover and statistical models developed for spatiotemporal dynamics of animal populations. Using computationally efficient model reparameterizations, we fit a spatiotemporal population model to a 28-year time series of sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) percent cover over a 2.5 × 5 km landscape in southwestern Wyoming while formally accounting for spatial autocorrelation. We include interannual variation in precipitation and temperature as covariates in the model to investigate how climate affects the cover of sagebrush. We then use the model to forecast the future abundance of sagebrush at the landscape scale under projected climate change, generating spatially explicit estimates of sagebrush population trajectories that have, until now, been impossible to produce at this scale. Our broadscale and long-term predictions are rooted in small-scale and short-term population dynamics and provide an alternative to predictions offered by species distribution models that do not include population dynamics. Our approach, which combines several existing techniques in a novel way, demonstrates the use of remote sensing data to model population responses to environmental change that play out at spatial scales far greater than the traditional field study plot.

Wyoming↗

USGS2016

Decadal shifts in grass and woody plant cover are driven by prolonged drying and modified by topo‐edaphic properties

Woody plant encroachment and overall declines in perennial vegetation in dryland regions can alter ecosystem properties and indicate land degradation, but the causes of these shifts remain controversial. Determining how changes in the abundance and distribution of grass and woody plants are influenced by conditions that regulate water availability at a regional scale provides a baseline to compare how management actions alter the composition of these vegetation types at a more local scale and can be used to predict future shifts under climate change. Using a remote‐sensing‐based approach, we assessed the balance between grasses and woody plants and how climate and topo‐edaphic conditions affected their abundances across the northern Sonoran Desert from 1989 to 2009. Despite widespread woody plant encroachment in this region over the last 150 years, we found that leguminous trees, including mesquite ( Prosopis spp.), declined in cover in areas with prolonged drying conditions during the early 21st century. Creosote bush ( Larrea tridentata ) also had moderate decreases with prolonged drying but was buffered from changes on soils with low clay that promote infiltration and high available water capacity that allows for retention of water at depth. Perennial grasses have expanded and contracted over the last two decades in response to summer precipitation and were especially dynamic on shallow soils with high clay that have large fluctuations in water availability. Our results suggest that topo‐edaphic properties can amplify or ameliorate climate‐induced changes in woody plants and perennial grasses. Understanding these relationships has important implications for ecosystem function under climate change in the southwestern USA and can inform management efforts to regulate grass and woody plant abundances.

Arizona↗

USGS2016

U.S. Geological Survey science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative—2015 annual report

This is the eighth annual report highlighting U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) science and decision-support activities conducted for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI). The activities address specific management needs identified by WLCI partner agencies. In 2015, USGS scientists continued 24 WLCI projects in 5 categories: (1) acquiring and analyzing resource-condition data to form a foundation for understanding and monitoring landscape conditions and projecting changes; (2) using new technologies to improve the scope and accuracy of landscape-scale monitoring and assessments, and applying them to monitor indicators of ecosystem conditions and the effectiveness of on-the-ground habitat projects; (3) conducting research to elucidate the mechanisms that drive wildlife and habitat responses to changing land uses; (4) managing and making accessible the large number of databases, maps, and other products being developed; and (5) coordinating efforts among WLCI partners, helping them to use USGS-developed decision-support tools, and integrating WLCI outcomes with future habitat enhancement and research projects. Of the 24 projects, 21 were ongoing, including those that entered new phases or more in-depth lines of inquiry, 2 were new, and 1 was completed. A highlight of 2015 was the WLCI science conference sponsored by the USGS, Bureau of Land Management, and National Park Service in coordination with the Wyoming chapter of The Wildlife Society. Of 260 participants, 41 were USGS professionals representing 13 USGS science centers, field offices, and Cooperative Wildlife Research Units. Major themes of USGS presentations included using new technologies for developing more efficient research protocols for modeling and monitoring natural resources, researching effects of energy development and other land uses on wildlife species and habitats of concern, and modeling species distributions, population trends, habitat use, and effects of land-use changes. There was also a special session on the effectiveness of Wyoming’s Sage-Grouse Executive Order. Combined, USGS presentations provided WLCI partners with a wealth of information and conservation tools. The project completed in 2015 yielded an index of important agricultural lands in the WLCI region. The index improves upon existing measures of agricultural productivity and provides planners and managers with additional values to consider when making decisions about land use and conservation actions. The two new projects include an analysis of satellite imagery to quantify sagebrush productivity and mortality, and an evaluation of how groundwater and small streams interact in the upper Green River Basin. Initiated in response to concern among WLCI partners that large areas of sagebrush appear to have died recently, the sagebrush study objectives are to assess effects of these mortality events on overall sagebrush ecosystem productivity, evaluate the feasibility of using satellite imagery to detect patterns in sagebrush mortality over time, and identify factors driving these mortality events. The groundwater-streamflow interaction study is being conducted by hydrologists and fish ecologists to better understand how groundwater-streamflow interactions are affected by energy-resource development and how native fish communities are affected by these factors. Expected outcomes of both new projects will provide WLCI partners with additional information and decision-support tools. Highlights of ongoing science foundation activities included simulations of nine alternative build-out scenarios for oil and gas development and an associated online fact sheet that explains how the simulations were conducted, with an applied example for the Atlantic Rim. Also completed in 2015 was an update of the USGS online inventory of mineral resources data, and publication of a USGS uranium resource survey for the WLCI region. Combined, the outcomes of this work provide decisionmakers and managers with important baseline information for existing and (or) future planning and monitoring efforts. Terrestrial monitoring activities in 2015 emphasized the use of satellite data in combination with other technologies and field data to monitor, assess, and (or) forecast distribution patterns and (or) trends in sagebrush ecosystems, seasonal and migration stopover habitats used by mule deer and elk, and semi-arid aspen woodlands. Several professional papers detailing new monitoring models and results have been published. Combined, this and related work will help managers understand distribution patterns and trends among priority habitats, identify areas in need of restoration or conservation, and monitor the effectiveness of habitat-management actions. Aquatic monitoring activities entailed not only the new groundwater-streamflow interaction study already mentioned, but also continued monitoring with streamgages paired with nearby wells in the Green River Basin to assess groundwater effects on streamflow and surface water temperatures. A map that portrays groundwater levels and general direction of flow in the Green River Basin was published as well . Overall, outcomes of USGS hydrological research and monitoring will inform WLCI partners about water resources in the WLCI region and help to explain fish-community responses to energy-resource development. In 2015, USGS terrestrial wildlife ecologists continued to make crucial strides towards better understanding wildlife species responses to energy-resource development and other land-use changes. This body of research includes six taxa that require or heavily depend on sagebrush habitats: sage-grouse, pygmy rabbits, 3 songbird species, and mule deer. Native fish communities are also being evaluated. Approaches include modeling and mapping wildlife species distributions, abundances, and trends; using satellite and other technologies to track wildlife seasonal movements; conducting successive phases of research that build on the knowledge gained through prior phases to reveal the specific factors or thresholds that drive population- or individual-level responses to changes; and conducting population viability analyses. Additionally, wildlife habitat association models for pygmy rabbit and sage-grouse were combined with the oil and gas build-out scenarios to project species responses to alternative energy development scenarios. Outcomes of the wildlife response research are helping decisionmakers and managers identify specific factors that contribute to species population trends, the potential for spatial overlap between important wildlife habitats and proposed energy-resource development, locations of priority habitats for restoration and conservation, and more. Data and WLCI Web site management highlights of 2015 included not only ongoing software upgrades, but also an update of the datasets displayed in two of the online products developed for the WLCI effort: (1) a map of 15,532 oil and natural gas well pad scars and other features associated with oil and gas extraction, and (2) a map of oil and gas, oil shale, uranium, and solar energy production, both for southwestern Wyoming. In addition, a map viewer was developed for a previously published map of coal and wind production in relation to sage-grouse distribution and core management areas in southwestern Wyoming. Combined, these maps place valuable decision-support tools in the hands of WLCI partners. The USGS coordination efforts on behalf of the WLCI in 2015 included significant work on planning and executing the WLCI science conference. They also included ongoing efforts to support Local Project Development Teams and the WLCI Coordination Team (CT) with developing conservation priorities and strategies, identifying priority areas for future conservation actions, supporting the evaluation and ranking of conservation projects, and evaluating the ways in which proposed habitat projects relate to WLCI priorities. In 2015, the USGS also assisted the WLCI CT with updating the WLCI Conservation Action Plan.

Wyoming↗

USGS2016

An assessment of the cultivated cropland class of NLCD 2006 using a multi-source and multi-criteria approach

We developed a method that analyzes the quality of the cultivated cropland class mapped in the USA National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2006. The method integrates multiple geospatial datasets and a Multi Index Integrated Change Analysis (MIICA) change detection method that captures spectral changes to identify the spatial distribution and magnitude of potential commission and omission errors for the cultivated cropland class in NLCD 2006. The majority of the commission and omission errors in NLCD 2006 are in areas where cultivated cropland is not the most dominant land cover type. The errors are primarily attributed to the less accurate training dataset derived from the National Agricultural Statistics Service Cropland Data Layer dataset. In contrast, error rates are low in areas where cultivated cropland is the dominant land cover. Agreement between model-identified commission errors and independently interpreted reference data was high (79%). Agreement was low (40%) for omission error comparison. The majority of the commission errors in the NLCD 2006 cultivated crops were confused with low-intensity developed classes, while the majority of omission errors were from herbaceous and shrub classes. Some errors were caused by inaccurate land cover change from misclassification in NLCD 2001 and the subsequent land cover post-classification process.

Remote Sensing↗

USGS2016

The integrated rangeland fire management strategy actionable science plan

The Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy (hereafter Strategy, DOI 2015) outlined the need for coordinated, science-based adaptive management to achieve long-term protection, conservation, and restoration of the sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystem. A key component of this management approach is the identification of knowledge gaps that limit implementation of effective strategies to meet current management challenges. The tasks and actions identified in the Strategy address several broad topics related to management of the sagebrush ecosystem. This science plan is organized around these topics and specifically focuses on fire, invasive plant species and their effects on altering fire regimes, restoration, sagebrush and greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), and climate and weather.

Report↗

USGS2015

Forecasting sagebrush ecosystem components and greater sage-grouse habitat for 2050: learning from past climate patterns and Landsat imagery to predict the future

Sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) ecosystems constitute the largest single North American shrub ecosystem and provide vital ecological, hydrological, biological, agricultural, and recreational ecosystem services. Disturbances have altered and reduced this ecosystem historically, but climate change may ultimately represent the greatest future risk. Improved ways to quantify, monitor, and predict climate-driven gradual change in this ecosystem is vital to its future management. We examined the annual change of Daymet precipitation (daily gridded climate data) and five remote sensing ecosystem sagebrush vegetation and soil components (bare ground, herbaceous, litter, sagebrush, and shrub) from 1984 to 2011 in southwestern Wyoming. Bare ground displayed an increasing trend in abundance over time, and herbaceous, litter, shrub, and sagebrush showed a decreasing trend. Total precipitation amounts show a downward trend during the same period. We established statistically significant correlations between each sagebrush component and historical precipitation records using a simple least squares linear regression. Using the historical relationship between sagebrush component abundance and precipitation in a linear model, we forecasted the abundance of the sagebrush components in 2050 using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) precipitation scenarios A1B and A2. Bare ground was the only component that increased under both future scenarios, with a net increase of 48.98 km 2 (1.1%) across the study area under the A1B scenario and 41.15 km 2 (0.9%) under the A2 scenario. The remaining components decreased under both future scenarios: litter had the highest net reductions with 49.82 km 2 (4.1%) under A1B and 50.8 km 2 (4.2%) under A2, and herbaceous had the smallest net reductions with 39.95 km 2 (3.8%) under A1B and 40.59 km 2 (3.3%) under A2. We applied the 2050 forecast sagebrush component values to contemporary (circa 2006) greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) habitat models to evaluate the effects of potential climate-induced habitat change. Under the 2050 IPCC A1B scenario, 11.6% of currently identified nesting habitat was lost, and 0.002% of new potential habitat was gained, with 4% of summer habitat lost and 0.039% gained. Our results demonstrate the successful ability of remote sensing based sagebrush components, when coupled with precipitation, to forecast future component response using IPCC precipitation scenarios. Our approach also enables future quantification of greater sage-grouse habitat under different precipitation scenarios, and provides additional capability to identify regional precipitation influence on sagebrush component response.

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