Christopher P. Catano

USGS2017

Predicting wading bird and aquatic faunal responses to ecosystem restoration scenarios

In large-scale conservation decisions, scenario planning identifies key uncertainties of ecosystem function linked to ecological drivers affected by management, incorporates ecological feedbacks, and scales up to answer questions robust to alternative futures. Wetland restoration planning requires an understanding of how proposed changes in surface hydrology, water storage, and landscape connectivity affect aquatic animal composition, productivity, and food-web function. In the Florida Everglades, reintroduction of historical hydrologic patterns is expected to increase productivity of all trophic levels. Highly mobile indicator species such as wading birds integrate secondary productivity from aquatic prey (small fishes and crayfish) over the landscape. To evaluate how fish, crayfish, and wading birds may respond to alternative hydrologic restoration plans, we compared predicted small fish density, crayfish density and biomass, and wading bird occurrence for existing conditions to four restoration scenarios that varied water storage and removal of levees and canals (i.e. decompartmentalization). Densities of small fish and occurrence of wading birds are predicted to increase throughout most of the Everglades under all restoration options because of increased flows and connectivity. Full decompartmentalization goes furthest toward recreating hypothesized historical patterns of fish density by draining excess water ponded by levees and hydrating areas that are currently drier than in the past. In contrast, crayfish density declined and species composition shifted under all restoration options because of lengthened hydroperiods (i.e. time of inundation). Under full decompartmentalization, the distribution of increased prey available for wading birds shifted south, closer to historical locations of nesting activity in Everglades National Park.

Restoration Ecology↗

USGS2014

Using scenario planning to evaluate the impacts of climate change on wildlife populations and communities in the Florida Everglades

It is uncertain how climate change will impact hydrologic drivers of wildlife population dynamics in freshwater wetlands of the Florida Everglades, or how to accommodate this uncertainty in restoration decisions. Using projections of climate scenarios for the year 2060, we evaluated how several possible futures could affect wildlife populations (wading birds, fish, alligators, native apple snails, amphibians, threatened and invasive species) across the Everglades landscape and inform planning already underway. We used data collected from prior research and monitoring to parameterize our wildlife population models. Hydrologic data were simulated using a spatially explicit, regional-scale model. Our scenario evaluations show that expected changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level could significantly alter important ecological functions. All of our wildlife indicators were negatively affected by scenarios with less rainfall and more evapotranspiration. Under such scenarios, habitat suitability was substantially reduced for iconic animals such as wading birds and alligators. Conversely, the increased rainfall scenario benefited aquatic prey productivity and apex predators. Cascading impacts on non-native species is speculative, but increasing temperatures could increase the time between cold events that currently limit expansion and abundance of non-native fishes, amphibians, and reptiles with natural ranges in the tropics. This scenario planning framework underscored the benefits of proceeding with Everglades restoration plans that capture and clean more freshwater with the potential to mitigate rainfall loss and postpone impacts of sea level rise.

Florida↗