Geology topics

Christopher J.W. McClure

Publications and source records attributed to Christopher J.W. McClure.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

American kestrel population trends and vital rates at the continental scale

The American kestrel ( Falco sparverius , hereafter referred to as kestrel) has declined across much of its North American range since at least the mid-1960s. Kestrel population dynamics have been explored through a multitude of local studies and two broad reviews of available data. Across large geographic extents, however, the demographic cause(s) of kestrel population declines remain(s) largely unknown. As part of a collaborative effort to elucidate the drivers of kestrel population declines, we developed a continental-scale integrated population model using band-recovery data, productivity data, and Breeding Bird Survey indices from 1986 to 2019 to estimate indices of annual population sizes, survival, and productivity rates across the continental United States. We detected a decline in population size of ~1%–2% per year. Overall estimates of population growth from 1986 to 2019 suggest a 29% decline in population size (95% CI = −34% to −23%). There was little evidence of a trend in brood size. However, survival of juvenile birds (mean = −0.015, SD = 0.008 and mean = −0.024, SD = 0.010 for females and males, respectively) and adult males (mean = −0.016, SD = 0.010) in the summer declined, suggesting that these vital rates could be contributing to declines in populations over time. Winter adult survival rates (mean = −0.004, SD = 0.009 and mean = −0.009, SD = 0.010 for females and males, respectively) also declined but to a lesser extent than summer survival. For juvenile birds, winter survival increased (mean = 0.006, SD = 0.008 and mean = 0.002, SD = 0.009 for females and males, respectively); however, this was not enough to offset declines in summer survival and annual survival rates declined over the time series. Annual adult survival was also low relative to previous research on kestrel survival rates. Given the importance of survival to population trends, our findings provide support for several previously proposed broad classes of factors potentially contributing to observed population declines: declines in arthropod prey, second-generation rodenticides, neonicotinoid insecticides, and predation.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2023

Reanalysis ignores pertinent data, includes inappropriate observations, and disregards realities of applied ecology: Response to Huso and Dalthorp (2023)

1) We recently demonstrated efficacy of automated curtailment of wind turbines in reducing fatalities of eagles at a study site in Wyoming, USA. Huso and Dalthorp criticize our work, asserting that there are several ‘major errors’ that render our previous work as providing ‘no meaningful support’ for automated curtailment. As we show here, our data do indeed provide support for the efficacy of automated curtailment. 2) The purported major errors they identify include: having only 1 year of post-treatment data, having only one control and one treatment site, using the control site for inference, choosing an arbitrary demarcation date between the ‘before’ and ‘after’ periods, analysing the number, rather than the rate, of fatalities, and not including data they consider pertinent. These claims are unsupported because all result from misreading our study, ignoring realities of causal inference in field ecology, or are matters of preference. 3) Most importantly, we did not fail to include pertinent data and we provided sufficient criteria in the manuscript to explain inclusion of carcasses in our study. As stated in our previous study, the eagle carcasses we did not include were found either outside of search areas or incidentally, and thus did not meet criteria for inclusion. Further, Huso and Dalthorp present a standard for spatial and temporal replication that is inconsistent with their own recent work and many other studies in this field. Finally, their reanalysis of our data ignores the control site while including inappropriate data and thus is not suitable for inference. 4) We appreciate the unusually thorough critique of our work provided by Huso and Dalthorp. Despite the major errors in their argument, this discussion provides a platform for further evaluation of our original work. 5) Synthesis and applications . We show that incorporating control site data and using our a priori demarcation of before and after periods into Huso and Dalthorp's reanalysis returns meaningful support for automated curtailment. We also direct the reader to an updated analysis that uses components of the approach Huso and Dalthorp suggest, along with additional data and a number of other analytical improvements, to validate and strengthen our original conclusions.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2022

Flight characteristics forecast entry by eagles into rotor-swept zones of wind turbines

Operators of wind power facilities can mitigate wildlife mortality by slowing or stopping wind turbines (hereafter ‘curtail’) when birds are at an increased risk of collision. Some facility operators curtail when individual birds have flight characteristics (e.g. altitude, distance or relative bearing of a bird's flight path) that exceed some threshold value, but thresholds currently in use have not been empirically evaluated. Overly restrictive thresholds can cause turbine curtailment for birds that never enter rotor-swept zones, thereby resulting in excess power loss. We evaluated the probability that birds, specifically eagles, entered the rotor-swept zone (hereafter ‘entry probability’) in response to their flight characteristics. We used an automated monitoring system to classify individuals as eagles or non-eagles and record flight paths of purported eagles at a wind facility in Wyoming, USA. We used logistic regression with occupancy dynamics and a distance-dependent colonization process to model entry probability. As a result, this model allowed entry probability to decrease with horizontal distance to the nearest turbine. The probability of entry varied with distance to the nearest turbine and approached zero when that distance was more than 202 m. Entry probability peaked when eagles flew 89 m above ground, corresponding to hub heights of turbines (80 m), and decreased to near-zero at altitudes of 189 m or more. Entry probabilities were greatest when flight paths were near the rotor-swept zone and when eagles flew slowly toward the nearest turbine. Compass bearing of a flight path was not associated with entry probability. Our model accurately forecasted entry probability in Wyoming (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.96) and was transferable to another facility in California, USA (AUC = 0.97); therefore, our results may be applicable across a variety of settings. Curtailment criteria can be based on flight path characteristics to forecast entry into rotor-swept zones. The use of distance and altitude thresholds when making curtailment decisions is justified. However, this analysis suggests alteration of the time to collision threshold, with curtailment initiated at greater distances as the speed of the bird decreases. Our novel modelling method and our results can inform curtailment criteria in any situation where curtailment decisions are made in real-time.

Wyoming↗

USGS2021

Resource selection functions based on hierarchical generalized additive models provide new insights into individual animal variation and species distribution

Habitat selection studies are designed to generate predictions of species distributions or inference regarding general habitat associations and individual variation in habitat use. Such studies frequently involve either individually indexed locations gathered across limited spatial extents and analyzed using resource selection functions (RSFs) or spatially extensive locational data without individual resolution typically analyzed using species distribution models. Both analytical methodologies have certain desirable features, but analyses that combine individual- and population-level inference with flexible non-linear functions may provide improved predictions while accounting for individual variation. Here, we describe how RSFs can be fit using hierarchical generalized additive models (HGAMs) using widely available software, providing a means to explore individual variation in habitat associations and to generate species distribution maps. We used GPS tracking data from golden eagles Aquila chrysaetos from across eastern North America with four environmental predictors to generate monthly distribution models. We considered three model structures that assumed different amounts of individual variation in the functional relationship between predictors and habitat use and used k -fold cross-validation to compare model performance. Models accounting for individual variability in shape and smoothness of functional responses performed best. Eagles exhibited the least amount of individual variation in response to land cover variables during winter months, with most individuals more closely adhering to the population-level trend. During the summer months, eagles exhibited more substantial individual variation in shape and smoothness of the functional relationships, suggesting some need to account for individual variation in eagle habitat use for both inferential and predictive purposes, during this time of year. Because they allow users to blend flexible functions with random effects structures and are well-supported by a variety of software platforms, we believe that HGAMs provide a useful addition to the suite of analyses used for modeling habitat associations or predicting species distributions.

Ecography↗

USGS2021

Eagles enter rotor-swept zones of wind turbines at rates that vary per turbine

There is increasing pressure on wind energy facilities to manage or mitigate for wildlife collisions. However, little information exists regarding spatial and temporal variation in collision rates, meaning that mitigation is most often a blanket prescription. To address this knowledge gap, we evaluated variation among turbines and months in an aspect of collision risk—probability of entry by an eagle into a rotor-swept zone (hereafter, “probability of entry”). We examined 10,222 eagle flight paths identified and recorded by an automated bird monitoring system at a wind energy facility in Wyoming, USA. Probabilities of entry per turbine–month combination were 4.03 times greater in some months than others, ranging 0.15 to 0.62. The overall probability of entry for the riskiest turbine (i.e., the one with the greatest probability of entry) was 2.39 times greater than the least-risky turbine. Our methodology describes large variation across turbines and months in the probability of entry. If subsequently combined with information on other sources of variation (i.e., weather, topography), this approach can identify risky versus safe situations for eagles under which cost of management, curtailment prescriptions, and collision risk can be simultaneously minimized.

Wyoming↗

USGS2012

The effect of coachwhip presence on body size of North American racers suggests competition between these sympatric snakes

When sympatric species compete, character divergence may help maintain coexistence. Snakes are often found in species-rich assemblages while exploiting similar resources; because snake body size is a relatively plastic trait that determines the range of prey sizes an individual may consume, divergence in body size between sympatric species may arise as a result of interspecific interactions. The North American racer, Coluber constrictor, and the larger coachwhip, Coluber flagellum, have a close taxonomic relationship and similar foraging strategies. Therefore, we hypothesized that C. constrictor would be smaller where they co-occur with C. flagellum, as compared to where C. flagellum is absent, throughout the southeastern extent of their range. To evaluate this hypothesis, we obtained data on body size for 2321 adult C. constrictor and 526 adult C. flagellum, along with habitat data and other potentially important factors influencing body size. Coluber constrictor was smaller than elsewhere when in peninsular Florida, in pine forests, on hydric soils and in the presence of the larger and potentially competing C. flagellum. Body size of C. flagellum did not vary by any measured habitat variables. The trends we documented are consistent with the hypothesis that C. constrictor body size is influenced by several variables, including co-occurrence with C. flagellum.

Alabama;Florida;Georgia;Louisiana;Mississippi;Sout↗