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Christian P. Dau

Publications and source records attributed to Christian P. Dau.

7 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2017

Long‐term trends in fall age ratios of black brant

Accurate estimates of the age composition of populations can inform past reproductive success and future population trajectories. We examined fall age ratios (juveniles:total birds) of black brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans ; brant) staging at Izembek National Wildlife Refuge near the tip of the Alaska Peninsula, southwest Alaska, USA, 1963 to 2015. We also investigated variation in fall age ratios associated with sampling location, an index of flock size, survey effort, day of season, observer, survey platform (boat‐ or land‐based) and tide stage. We analyzed data using logistic regression models implemented in a Bayesian framework. Mean predicted fall age ratio controlling for survey effort, day of year, and temporal and spatial variation was 0.24 (95% CL = 0.23, 0.25). Overall trend in age ratios was −0.6% per year (95% CL = −1.3%, 0.2%), resulting in an approximate 26% decline in the proportion of juveniles over the study period. We found evidence for variation across a range of variables implying that juveniles are not randomly distributed in space and time within Izembek Lagoon. Age ratios varied by location within the study area and were highly variable among years. They decreased with the number of birds aged (an index of flock size) and increased throughout September before leveling off in early October and declining in late October. Age ratios were similar among tide stages and observers and were lower during boat‐based (offshore) than land‐based (nearshore) surveys. Our results indicate surveys should be conducted annually during early to mid‐October to ensure the entire population is present and available for sampling, and throughout Izembek Lagoon to account for spatiotemporal variation in age ratios. Sampling should include a wide range of flock sizes representative of their distribution and occur in flocks located near and off shore. Further research evaluating the cause of declining age ratios in the fall population is necessary to inform management and predict long‐term population dynamics of brant.

Alaska↗
USGS2013

Age-specific survival of tundra swans on the lower Alaska Peninsula

The population of Tundra Swans (Cygnus columbianus columbianus) breeding on the lower Alaska Peninsula represents the southern extremity of the species' range and is uniquely nonmigratory. We used data on recaptures, resightings, and recoveries of neck-collared Tundra Swans on the lower Alaska Peninsula to estimate collar loss, annual apparent survival, and other demographic parameters for the years 1978–1989. Annual collar loss was greater for adult males fitted with either the thinner collar type (0.34) or the thicker collar type (0.15) than for other age/sex classes (thinner: 0.10, thicker: 0.04). The apparent mean probability of survival of adults (0.61) was higher than that of immatures (0.41) and for both age classes varied considerably by year (adult range: 0.44–0.95, immature range: 0.25–0.90). To assess effects of permanent emigration by age and breeding class, we analyzed post hoc the encounter histories of swans known to breed in our study area. The apparent mean survival of known breeders (0.65) was generally higher than that of the entire marked sample but still varied considerably by year (range 0.26–1.00) and indicated that permanent emigration of breeding swans was likely. We suggest that reductions in apparent survival probability were influenced primarily by high and variable rates of permanent emigration and that immigration by swans from elsewhere may be important in sustaining a breeding population at and near Izembek National Wildlife Refuge.

Alaska↗
USGS2009

Change in abundance of Pacific brant wintering in Alaska: Evidence of a climate warming effect?

Winter distribution of Pacific Flyway brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans ) has shifted northward from low-temperate areas to sub-Arctic areas over the last 42 years. We assessed the winter abundance and distribution of brant in Alaska to evaluate whether climate warming may be contributing to positive trends in the most northern of the wintering populations. Mean surface air temperatures during winter at the end of the Alaska Peninsula increased about 1°C between 1963 and 2004, resulting in a 23% reduction in freezing degree days and a 34% decline in the number of days when ice cover prevents birds from accessing food resources. Trends in the wintering population fluctuated with states of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, increasing during positive (warm) phases and decreasing during negative (cold) phases, and this correlation provides support for the hypothesis that growth in the wintering population of brant in Alaska is linked to climate warming. The size of the wintering population was negatively correlated with the number of days of strong northwesterly winds in November, which suggests that the occurrence of tailwinds favorable for migration before the onset of winter was a key factor in whether brant migrated from Alaska or remained there during winter. Winter distribution of brant on the Alaska Peninsula was highly variable and influenced by ice cover, particularly at the heavily used Izembek Lagoon. Observations of previously marked brant indicated that the Alaska wintering population was composed primarily of birds originating from Arctic breeding colonies that appear to be growing. Numbers of brant in Alaska during winter will likely increase as temperatures rise and ice cover decreases at high latitudes in response to climate warming.

Alaska↗
USGS2001

Effects of gull predation and weather on survival of emperor goose goslings

Numbers of emperor geese ( Chen canagica ) have remained depressed since the mid-1980s. Despite increases in glaucous gulls ( Larus hyperboreus ), a primary predator of goslings, little information existed to assess whether recent patterns of gosling survival have been a major factor affecting population dynamics. We used observations of known families of emperor geese to estimate rates of gosling survival during 1993-96 on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska. Survival of goslings to 30 days of age varied among years from 0.332 during 1994 to 0.708 during 1995. Survival was lowest during 1993-94, which corresponded with the years of highest frequency of disturbance of goose broods by glaucous gulls. Rainfall during early brood rearing was much higher in 1994 than other years, and this corresponded to low survival among goslings ≤5 days of age. Numbers of juveniles in families during fall staging were negatively related to rainfall during early brood rearing (n = 23 yr). Although there are no data to assess whether gosling survival in emperor geese has declined from some previous level, current survival rates of emperor goose goslings are as high as or higher than those observed in other goose species that are rapidly increasing. A proposed reduction of glaucous gull numbers by managers may not be the most effective means for increasing population growth in emperor geese.

Alaska↗
USGS2000

Annual survival and site fidelity of Stellar's Eiders molting along the Alaska Peninsula

Populations of Steller's eiders ( Polysticta stelleri ) molting and wintering along the Alaska Peninsula have declined since the 1960's. We captured and marked a large sample of Steller's eiders molting in 2 lagoons along the Alaska Peninsula between 1975-97. We used mark-recapture analysis techniques to estimate annual survival and movement probabilities within and among lagoons for male and female eiders. Estimates of annual survival (±SE) were 0.899 ± 0.032 for females and 0.765 ± 0.044 for males. Both sexes showed high rates of fidelity to specific molting locations (>95%) within lagoons; yet we found no evidence that annual probability of survival differed among groups molting in different locations either within or among lagoons. We found weak evidence that annual survival decreased between the periods 1975-81 and 1991-97. The lower survival of males compared to females is unusual for waterfowl and may result in a female-biased sex ratio. We conclude that a decrease in adult survival may have initiated the long-term population decline. Further, a shortage of males may be limiting reproductive potential.

Alaska↗
USGS1993

Decline of spectacled eiders nesting in western Alaska

Spectacled eider ( Somateria fischeri ) populations in western Alaska are now less than 4% of the numbers estimated in the early 1970s. In 1992, an estimated 1721 nesting pairs remained on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta. Causes of this rapid and continuing decline of -14% per year are undocumented. Many aspects of spectacled eider biology remain unknown, including their marine foraging habitats, food items, migratory movements, and population ecology. A review of some biological characteristics and possible threats to the species suggests the importance of quantifying potential impacts from parasites and disease, subsistence harvest, predation during brood rearing, and alteration of Bering Sea food resources. Factors causing the population decline of spectacled eiders must be determined and appropriate actions taken to reverse the trend.

Alaska↗