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Charlie Mandeville

Publications and source records attributed to Charlie Mandeville.

10 recordsLinked to original sources

Comparison of earthquake early warning systems and the national volcano early warning system at the U.S. Geological Survey

Introduction Every year in the United States, natural hazards threaten lives and livelihoods, resulting in thousands of casualties and billions of dollars in damage. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Natural Hazards Mission Area works with many partners to monitor, assess, and research a wide range of natural hazards, including earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. These efforts aim to enhance community preparedness, response, and resilience. The USGS Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) provides earthquake monitoring and notifications, assesses seismic hazards, and conducts targeted research to reduce the risk of earthquake hazards nationwide. The USGS Volcano Hazards Program (VHP) delivers forecasts, warnings, and information about volcanic hazards based on proactive monitoring of the nation’s active volcanoes and scientific understanding of volcanic processes. The VHP also conducts targeted research on volcanic processes and creates hazards assessments that inform the level of monitoring required at each of the nation’s active volcanoes. Earthquake and volcano early warning systems are essential to disaster risk reduction: they can save lives and reduce property damage by quickly distributing messages and warnings to communities in harm’s way.

Fact Sheet

The Volcano Hazards Program — Strategic science plan for 2022–2026

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Volcano Hazards Program (VHP) Strategic Science Plan, developed through discussion with scientists-in-charge of the USGS volcano observatories and the director of the USGS Volcano Science Center, specifies six major strategic goals to be pursued over the next 5 years. The purpose of these goals is to help fulfill the USGS VHP mission to enhance public safety and to minimize social and economic disruption caused by volcanic eruptions in the United States and its territories, through delivery of effective forecasts, warnings, and information on volcano hazards based on scientific understanding of volcanic processes. These six major strategic goals are to (1) continue—and when possible, accelerate—implementation of the National Volcano Early Warning System (NVEWS); (2) improve community preparedness for volcanic hazards by updating and standardizing essential components of volcano hazard assessments and providing training to land managers, emergency responders, and State and local communities; (3) develop the next generation of volcano hazard assessments using geographic information systems and other digital tools; (4) make observations with new instrumentation and take advantage of advances in real-time gas sensors; (5) rebuild the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory and its monitoring capabilities; and (6) form new partnerships and strengthen existing partnerships with other government agencies and with academia and industry, to advance volcano monitoring, increase understanding of volcanic processes, and disseminate USGS information. In its effort to advance volcano science and monitoring techniques, the VHP has identified six scientific targets to pursue over the next 5 years, including: (1) increased understanding of volcano seismicity; (2) improved probabilistic forecasting; (3) deepened grasp of volcano eruption histories and geochronology; (4) newly developed and refined physical models of magmatic systems, leading to better situational awareness and accuracy of eruption forecasts; (5) improved warnings and forecasts of volcanic ash and gas clouds and characterization of volcanic smog sources; and (6) refined lava-flow modeling and forecasting of lava-flow paths.

Circular

Five-year management plan for establishing and operating NVEWS—The National Volcano Early Warning System

On March 12, 2019, Congress passed the John D. Dingell, Jr., Conservation, Management, and Recreation Act (Public Law 116–9; 133 Stat. 580), in which Title V, §5001 (43 U.S.C. 31k) authorized the establishment of the National Volcano Early Warning and Monitoring System (NVEWS) within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Conceived by the USGS Volcano Hazards Program in 2005, NVEWS is designed to be a proactive, fully integrated national-scale volcano monitoring system to ensure that the 161 potentially active volcanoes in the United States and its territories are monitored at levels commensurate with the threat they pose. The core of this report is the first USGS NVEWS five-year management plan, which was presented to Congress on March 12, 2020, and which details the principal elements of NVEWS that will be developed over the next five years, pending sufficient funding. These elements are improvements and enhancements to the monitoring network, a National Volcano Data Center, an external grants activity, an Advisory Committee, an Implementation Committee, and partnerships, with estimated cost projections and annual milestones.

Northern Mariana Islands

U.S. Geological Survey Volcano Hazards Program—Assess, forecast, prepare, engage

At least 170 volcanoes in 12 States and 2 territories have erupted in the past 12,000 years and have the potential to erupt again. Consequences of eruptions from U.S. volcanoes can extend far beyond the volcano’s immediate area. Many aspects of our daily life are vulnerable to volcano hazards, including air travel, regional power generation and transmission infrastructure, interstate transportation, port facilities, communications infrastructure, and public health. The U.S. Geological Survey has the Federal responsibility to issue timely warnings of potential volcanic activity to the affected populace and civil authorities. The Volcano Hazards Program (VHP) is funded to carry out that mission and does so through a combination of volcano monitoring, short-term warnings, research on how volcanoes work, and community education and outreach.

Fact Sheet

Global volcanic hazards and risk

An estimated 800 million people live within 100 km of an active volcano in 86 countries and additional overseas territories worldwide [see Chapter 4 and Appendix B]1. Volcanoes are compelling evidence that the Earth is a dynamic planet characterised by endless change and renewal. Humans have always found volcanic activity fascinating and have often chosen to live close to volcanoes, which commonly provide favourable environments for life. Volcanoes bring many benefits to society: eruptions fertilise soils; elevated topography provides good sites for infrastructure (e.g. telecommunications on elevated ground); water resources are commonly plentiful; volcano tourism can be lucrative; and volcanoes can acquire spiritual, aesthetic or religious significance. Some volcanoes are also associated with geothermal resources, making them a target for exploration and a potential energy resource. Much of the time volcanoes are not a threat because they erupt very infrequently or because communities have become resilient to frequently erupting volcanoes. However, there is an everpresent danger of a long-dormant volcano re-awakening or of volcanoes producing anomalously large or unexpected eruptions. Volcanic eruptions can cause loss of life and livelihoods in exposed communities, damage or disrupt critical infrastructure and add stress to already fragile environments. Their impacts can be both short-term, e.g. physical damage, and long-term, e.g. sustained or permanent displacement of populations. The risk from volcanic eruptions and their attendant hazards is often underestimated beyond areas within the immediate proximity of a volcano. For example, volcanic ash hazards can have effects hundreds of kilometres away from the vent and have an adverse impact on human and animal health, infrastructure, transport, agriculture and horticulture, the environment and economies. The products of volcanism and their impacts can extend beyond country borders, to be regional and even global in scale. Although known historical loss of life from volcanic eruptions (since 1600 AD about 280,000 fatalities are recorded, Auker et al. (2013)) is modest compared to other major natural hazards, volcanic eruptions can be catastrophic for exposed communities. In 1985 the town of Armero in Colombia was buried by lahars (volcanic mudflows) with more than 21,000 fatalities due to relatively small explosive eruptions at the summit of Nevado del Ruiz volcano that partially melted a glacier (Voight, 1990).

Book chapter

Sulfur isotope fractionation between fluid and andesitic melt: An experimental study

Glasses produced from decompression experiments conducted by Fiege et al. (2014a) were used to investigate the fractionation of sulfur isotopes between fluid and andesitic melt upon magma degassing. Starting materials were synthetic glasses with a composition close to a Krakatau dacitic andesite. The glasses contained 4.55–7.95 wt% H 2 O, ∼140 to 2700 ppm sulfur (S), and 0–1000 ppm chlorine (Cl). The experiments were carried out in internally heated pressure vessels (IHPV) at 1030 °C and oxygen fugacities ( f O 2 ) ranging from QFM+0.8 log units up to QFM+4.2 log units (QFM: quartz–fayalite–magnetite buffer). The decompression experiments were conducted by releasing pressure ( P ) continuously from ∼400 MPa to final P of 150, 100, 70 and 30 MPa. The decompression rate ( r ) ranged from 0.01 to 0.17 MPa/s. The samples were annealed for 0–72 h (annealing time, t A ) at the final P and quenched rapidly from 1030 °C to room temperature ( T ). The decompression led to the formation of a S-bearing aqueous fluid phase due to the relatively large fluid–melt partitioning coefficients of S. Secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) was used to determine the isotopic composition of the glasses before and after decompression. Mass balance calculations were applied to estimate the gas–melt S isotope fractionation factor α g-m . No detectable effect of r and t A on α g-m was observed. However, SIMS data revealed a remarkable increase of α g-m from ∼0.9985 ± 0.0007 at >QFM+3 to ∼1.0042 ± 0.0042 at ∼QFM+1. Noteworthy, the isotopic fractionation at reducing conditions was about an order of magnitude larger than predicted by previous works. Based on our experimental results and on previous findings for S speciation in fluid and silicate melt a new model predicting the effect of f O 2 on α g-m (or Δ 34 S g–m ) in andesitic systems at 1030 °C is proposed. Our experimental results as well as our modeling are of high importance for the interpretation of S isotope signatures in natural samples (e.g., melt inclusions or volcanic gases).

Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta

The role of water in generating the calc-alkaline trend: New volatile data for aleutian magmas and a new tholeiitic index

The origin of tholeiitic (TH) versus calc-alkaline (CA) magmatic trends has long been debated. Part of the problem stems from the lack of a quantitative measure for the way in which a magma evolves. Recognizing that the salient feature in many TH–CA discrimination diagrams is enrichment in Fe during magma evolution, we have developed a quantitative index of Fe enrichment, the Tholeiitic Index (THI): THI = Fe 4 ·0 /Fe 8 ·0 , where Fe 4 ·0 is the average FeO* concentration of samples with 4 ± 1 wt % MgO, and Fe 8 ·0 is the average FeO* at 8 ± 1 wt % MgO. Magmas with THI > 1 have enriched in FeO* during differentiation from basalts to andesites and are tholeiitic; magmas with THI < 1 are calc-alkaline. Most subduction zone volcanism is CA, but to varying extents; the THI expresses the continuum of Fe enrichment observed in magmatic suites in all tectonic settings. To test various controls on the development of CA trends, we present new magmatic water measurements in melt inclusions from eight volcanoes from the Aleutian volcanic arc (Augustine, Emmons, Shishaldin, Akutan, Unalaska, Okmok, Seguam, and Korovin). Least degassed H 2 O contents vary from ∼2 wt % (Shishaldin) to >7 wt % (Augustine), spanning the global range in arc mafic magmas. Within the Aleutian data, H 2 O correlates negatively with THI, from strongly calc-alkaline (Augustine, THI = 0·65) to moderately tholeiitic (Shishaldin, THI = 1·16). The relationship between THI and magmatic water is maintained when data are included from additional arc volcanoes, back-arc basins, ocean islands, and mid-ocean ridge basalts (MORBs), supporting a dominant role of magmatic water in generating CA trends. An effective break between TH and CA trends occurs at ∼2 wt % H 2 O. Both pMELTs calculations and laboratory experiments demonstrate that the observed co-variation of H 2 O and THI in arcs can be generated by the effect of H 2 O on the suppression of plagioclase and the relative enhancement of Fe-oxides on the liquid line of descent. The full THI–H 2 O array requires an increase in fO 2 with H 2 O, from ≤FMQ (where FMQ is the fayalite–magnetite–quartz buffer) in MORB to ∼ΔFMQ +0·5 to +2 in arcs, consistent with inferences from measured Fe and S species in glasses and melt inclusions. A curve fit to the data, H 2 O (wt % ± 1·2) = exp[(1·26 – THI)/0·32], may provide a useful tool for estimating the H 2 O content of magmas that are inaccessible to melt inclusion study.

Journal of Petrology

Augustine Volcano - The influence of volatile components in magmas erupted A.D. 2006 to 2,100 years before present: Chapter 16 in The 2006 eruption of Augustine Volcano, Alaska

The petrology and geochemistry of 2006 eruptive products of Augustine Volcano, Alaska, have been investigated through analyses of whole-rock samples, phenocrysts, silicate melt inclusions, and matrix glasses to constrain processes of magma evolution, eruption, and degassing. Particular attention was directed toward the concentrations and geochemical relationships involving the magmatic volatile components H 2 O, CO 2, S, and Cl. The analytical results for 2006 samples have been integrated with data for samples of Pleistocene basalt, prehistoric andesites, and 1986 andesites from Augustine to provide a broad view of volatile behavior in Augustine magmas. The observation of generally similar geochemical features for this range of eruptions indicates that magmatic and volatile degassing processes have been relatively consistent during the past 2,100 years. Augustine andesites range from low-silica to high-silica compositions and contain phenocrysts of plagioclase, orthopyroxene, and clinopyroxene, with lesser olivine, amphiboles, iron-titanium oxides, and apatite. The groundmass varies from strongly crystallized and/or oxidized to comparatively clear, microlite-poor vesicular glass. Coexisting iron-titanium oxides of 2006 rock samples, which are generally consistent with those of prior eruptive materials, indicate &fnof; O2 values of approximately NNO+1.5 to NNO+2.5 and oxide crystallization temperatures of 835 to 1,052&deg;C. The compositions of matrix and melt-inclusion glasses range from rhyodacite to rhyolite and show relationships that reflect magma evolution involving fractional crystallization and multiple stages of mingling and/or mixing. In particular, melt inclusions of low-silica andesites express mixing of magmas with more widely varying compositions, than do melt inclusions of high-silica andesites and dacites. The melt inclusions of 2006, 1986, and prehistoric andesites contain moderate to high concentrations of H 2 O and Cl and lesser CO 2 and SO 2 . Comparing the abundances of H 2 O, CO 2 , and Cl in these melt inclusions with experimentally established volatile solubilities for felsic melts indicates that the 2006 and prehistoric samples are most consistent with the ascent of fluid-saturated magmas containing 1 weight percent of H 2 O-enriched vapor under closed-system conditions and that pressures of volatile phase exsolution range from 150 to less than 20 MPa. This closed-system behavior was maintained to quite shallow depths prior to eruption, and this pressure range is consistent with constraints derived from 2006 geodetic measurements indicating magma storage and crystallization at 4 to 6 km and upwards to near-surface depths. The magmatic fluids were relatively oxidizing and included H 2 O-enriched and HCl-, H 2 S-, S 2 -, and SO 2 &plusmn; CO 2 -bearing vapors; hydrosaline aqueous liquids largely enriched in Cl - , SO 4 2- , alkalis, and H 2 O; and moderately saline, H 2 O-poor liquids containing Cl - , SO 4 2- , and alkali elements.

Alaska

Petrology of the 2004-2006 Mount St. Helens lava dome -- implications for magmatic plumbing and eruption triggering

Eighteen years after dome-forming eruptions ended in 1986, and with little warning, Mount St. Helens began to erupt again in October 2004. During the ensuing two years, the volcano extruded more than 80×10 6 m 3 of gas-poor, crystal-rich dacite lava. The 2004-6 dacite is remarkably uniform in bulk-rock composition and, at 65 percent SiO 2 , among the richest in silica and most depleted in incompatible elements of the magmas erupted at Mount St. Helens during the past 500 years. Since shortly after the first spine of lava appeared, samples have been collected using a steel box dredge (“Jaws”) suspended 20-35 m below a helicopter and, occasionally, by hand sampling. As of the spring of 2006, 25 age-controlled samples have been collected from the seven spines of the new lava dome. Samples were obtained from both the interiors of spines and from their carapaces, which are composed of fault gouge and cataclasite 1-2 m thick. The dacite lava is crystal rich, with 40-50 percent phenocrysts. The groundmass is extensively crystallized to a cotectic assemblage of quartz, tridymite, and Na- and K-rich feldspar microlites, raising the total crystal content to more than 80 percent on a vesicle-free basis in all but the earliest erupted samples. Early samples and those collected from near the spine margin are more glassy and vesicular that those collected later and from the interior of the spines. Oxide thermobarometer determinations for the earliest erupted samples we collected cluster at temperatures of approximately 850&deg;C and at an oxygen fugacity one log unit above the nickel-nickel oxide (NNO) buffer curve. In contrast, samples from relatively glass-poor samples erupted in late 2004 and early 2005 have zoned oxides with apparent temperatures that range to greater than 950&deg;C. The higher temperatures in these microlite-rich rocks are attributed to latent heat evolved during extensive and rapid groundmass crystallization. Low volatile contents of matrix glasses and presence of tridymite and quartz in the high-silica rhyolite matrix glass indicate extensive shallow (<1 km) crystallization of the matrix, driven by degassing of water and solidifying the magma below the level of the vent. The mode of eruption of the dacite as a series of fault-gouge-mantled spines is explained by this process of extensive subvent degassing and solidification. Although the dacite from this eruption is more silica rich than 1980-86 dome rocks, most major and trace element concentrations of the 1980-86 and 2004-6 magma batches are similar, and magmatic gas emissions have been low and have had similar ratios to those of the 1980s, raising the possibility that the magma might be residual from the 1980–86 reservoir. However, titanium and chromium are enriched slightly relative to the most recent 1980-86 and Goat Rocks (A.D. 1800-1857) eruptive cycles, and heavy rare-earth-element abundances are slightly depleted relative to those erupted during the past 500 years at Mount St. Helens. These data suggest either addition of new gas-poor dacite magma or tapping of a region of the preexisting reservoir that was not erupted previously. A relatively low pressure of last phenocryst growth suggests that the magma was derived from near the apex of the Mount St. Helens magma reservoir at a depth of about 5 km. Viewed in the context of seismic, deformation, and gas-emission data, the petrologic and geochemical data can be explained by ascent of a geochemically distinct batch of magma into the apex of the reservoir during the period 1987-97, followed by upward movement of magma into a new conduit beginning in late September 2004. The question of new versus residual magma has implications for the long-term eruptive behavior of Mount St. Helens, because arrival of a new batch of dacitic magma from the deep crust could herald the beginning of a new long-term cycle of eruptive activity. It is also important to our understanding of what triggered the eruption and its future course. Two hypotheses for triggering are considered: (1) top-down fracturing related to the shallow groundwater system and (2) an increase in reservoir pressure brought about by recent magmatic replenishment. With respect to the future course of the eruption, similarities between textures and character of eruption of the 2004-6 dome and the long-duration (greater than 100 years) pre-1980 summit dome, along with the low eruptive rate of the current eruption, suggest that the eruption could continue sluggishly or intermittently for years to come.

Washington

Chemistry, mineralogy, and petrology of amphibole in Mount St. Helens 2004-2006 dacite

Textural, compositional, and mineralogical data are reported and interpreted for a large population of clinoamphibole phenocrysts in 22 samples from the seven successive dacite spines erupted at Mount St. Helens between October 2004 and January 2006. Despite the uniformity in bulk composition of magma erupted since 2004, there is striking textural and compositional diversity among amphibole phenocrysts and crystal fragments that have grown from, partly dissolved in, or been accidentally incorporated in the new dacite. This study demonstrates that magma erupted throughout the current dome-building episode is the end product of small-scale, thorough mixing of multiple generations of crystal-laden magma. The mixed amphibole population provides important clues to magma conditions within the dacite magma reservoir prior to ascent and, to some extent, the dynamics of mixing and ascent. The predominant amphibole in new dome rock ranges from moderate- to high-alumina tschermakite and magnesiohastingsite compositions. As substantiated by major- and trace-element geochemistry and barometry calculations, this compositional range of crystals, along with plagioclase, orthopyroxene, and iron-titanium oxide, is likely to have precipitated from dacite magma over a range of pressures and temperatures consistent with experimentally determined phase relations (~900&deg;C to ~800&deg;C between 100 MPa and ~350-400 MPa or ~4-km and 13.5-15-km depth). Along with traceelement characteristics, textural and compositional data help to distinguish some low-alumina magnesiohornblende crystals as xenocrysts. The diverse range in composition of amphibole in all samples of 2004-6 dacite, and the complex zonation observed in many phenocrysts, suggests a well-mixed source magma with components that are subjected to repeated heating and (or) pressurization within this pressure-temperature window. Amphibole textural and compositional diversity suggest dynamic conditions in the upper-reservoir zone, which has been tapped steadily during ~2 years of continuous and monotonous eruption. This well-mixed crystal mush is likely to have been subjected to repeated injection of hotter magma into cooler crystal-laden magma while simultaneously assimilating earlier generations of dacitic roof material and surrounding gabbroic rock. Decompression-related reaction rims around subhedral, rounded, resorbed, and fragmented amphibole phenocrysts, regardless of composition, indicate that this mixed-crystal assemblage was being broken, abraded, and dissolved in the magma as a result of mechanical mixing before and during early stages of ascent from conduit roots extending into a mushy cupola of the shallow reservoir. In the earliest lava samples (October 2004), amphiboles with <3-&mu;m rims associated with a glassier matrix than later samples suggest a slightly faster ascent rate consistent with the relatively high eruptive flux of the earliest phases of dome extrusion. Reaction rim widths of ~5 &mu;m on amphibole in all subsequently extruded lava result from a steady influx and upward transport of magma from 3.5-2.5-km to ~1-km depth at rates of ~600 to ~1,200 m/day, through a conduit less than 10 m in radius. Slower ascent rates inferred from volumetric-flux and matrixcrystallization parameters are explained by a widening of the conduit to greater than 60 m radius within 1 km of the surface.

Washington