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Charles B. Yackulic

Publications and source records attributed to Charles B. Yackulic.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2026

Listening for extinction: Range-wide occupancy highlights critical risks and priorities for northern spotted owls

The northern spotted owl ( Strix occidentalis caurina ) continues to decline across its range, threatened by habitat disturbances and invasive barred owls ( Strix varia ). We conducted a range-wide spotted owl occupancy assessment using 2.1 million h of passive acoustic recordings from 4081 survey stations within 1027 randomly selected 5-km 2 hexagons across six physiographic regions. Applying multistate occupancy models, we estimated probabilities of landscape use (by at least one northern spotted owl) and pair occupancy (occupied by both a male and a female), while accounting for imperfect and sex-biased detection probability. Detection probability of pairs was low in most regions, primarily due to undetected females, but increased with survey effort. If management decisions can only be made when there is a high probability of detecting both sexes when they are present, then longer surveys are one approach to support the decisions. Landscape use and pair occupancy were positively associated with old-growth forest structure and topographic diversity. We also found a pronounced latitudinal gradient in spotted owl landscape use rates with estimated mean landscape use of 0.17 (SE = 0.03) and 0.16 (SE = 0.02) in the two most northern regions, and 0.54 (SE = 0.04) and 0.52 (SE = 0.05) in the two most southern regions. Pair occupancy rates were higher in southern regions (0.29, SE = 0.03, 0.43, SE = 0.05) and very low in northern regions (0.04, SE = 0.01, 0.03, SE = 0.01). In contrast to spotted owls, barred owls were detected in 90% of northern hexagons and 50% of southern hexagons, and barred owl calling intensity was over eight times higher than spotted owls. These results highlight extinction risks in several regions and suggest that management actions, such as spatially targeted barred owl control and protection of structurally complex habitats, have a narrow temporal window in which they can be effective in lowering the probability of regional extirpations. We generated predictive maps of landscape use and pair occupancy, which could help guide regional conservation strategies. This study demonstrates how passive acoustic monitoring and machine learning can be used for broad-scale ecological monitoring, identifying extinction risk thresholds, supporting adaptive management, and improving conservation outcomes for wide-ranging and elusive species that can reliably be detected through unique vocalizations.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2026

Future of the Colorado River phase 2: Integrated operation of the Powell/Grand Canyon/Mead segment for water supply, hydropower, and river ecosystems

State and federal agencies are negotiating water-supply agreements that may govern water supply and storage in the Colorado River Basin through 2046. Current operating policies in the Colorado River primarily focus on water supply implications with less focus on the potential effects to other resources. Models that forecast the response of multiple resources over the short- and long-term term to water supply decisions could lead to greater consideration of these resources in future water supply decision making. In this project, we developed a dynamic programming tool to identify potential release decisions that help maximize different management objectives under different scenarios for storing water in Lake Mead and Lake Powell in attempt to inform efforts to consider multiple resources. We ask, “ How can decisions under different reservoir storage scenarios affect river resource management objectives, what are the trade-offs among these objectives, and how can we consider more resources when making water supply decisions? ”.

Colorado River↗
USGS2026

A simplified two-station approach for modeling metabolism in dam tailwaters subject to diel flow variation

Tailwaters are ubiquitous and highly managed ecosystems whose food webs often rely disproportionately on autochthonous energy. In situ continuous dissolved oxygen data are increasingly being used to estimate gross primary productivity and ecosystem respiration in rivers, but this approach is complicated in tailwaters, where upriver discontinuities (i.e., dams) violate commonly employed one-station approaches. In such cases, two-station metabolism models can be applied, although substantial diel variation in flow (a common outcome of hydropower production) requires more complex treatment of water parcel travel times. Here, we present a new two-station metabolism model that allows estimation of reach-scale gross primary productivity and ecosystem respiration in streams and rivers that experience within-day variation in flow. Our approach simplifies two-station variable flow model implementation compared to previous efforts. We apply our model to a 6-yr dissolved oxygen time series and use Bayesian inference to estimate daily gross primary productivity, ecosystem respiration, and gas exchange velocity ( k 600 ) for a ~12-km reach of the Colorado River downriver of Glen Canyon Dam. We compare our model's performance to a more mechanistically detailed and computationally intensive Eulerian dynamic flow model and also to a widely-used one-station model that uses assumptions of reach uniformity that are often strongly violated in tailwaters. These comparisons show that our metabolism estimates conform with output from the more detailed dynamic flow model and that the one-station approach deviates substantially from both two-station approaches. Our new stream metabolism model can help resolve a fundamental analytical impediment in tailwater ecology.

Arizona↗
USGS2026

Growth of a threatened desert fish becomes resource dependent when released from temperature limitation in a regulated river

1. Growth of ectotherms typically positively correlates with increasing temperature towards an optimal temperature range, followed by a decline in growth when temperatures exceed the optimal temperature range for that organism. When temperature is within or close to the optimal range, food availability and other environmental factors can play important roles in modifying growth rates. River regulation often alters both environmental conditions (e.g., flow, turbidity and temperature) and aquatic food webs, modifying the quality and quantity of resources available to consumers. Here we aim to understand how food availability, water temperature and other environmental factors are associated with fish growth (defined here as a change in length) in a large, regulated desert river. 2. We measured growth of humpback chub (Gila cypha) at two river reaches located 240 km apart in the Colorado River within the Grand Canyon, Arizona, USA. We then fit Bayesian state-space models of growth that account for variable time at large to test environmental predictors such as water temperature, flow, turbidity (which increases during tributary flooding and can be a proxy for allochthonous inputs) and gross primary productivity (a proxy for autochthonous food) using an inclusion parameter approach. Both river reaches are located below Glen Canyon Dam, which regulates flow, alters seasonal water temperatures and traps sediment, nutrients, and organic carbon; however, merging tributaries and a greater distance from the dam lead to differences in environmental conditions. 3. In the upriver reach, where warm season water temperatures are below the optimal range for humpback chub most of the time, temperature was the primary driver of variation in growth according to inclusion parameter values and the strength of the standardised effect size. Turbidity was also included in the final model for the upper reach, but the inclusion parameter values and standardised effect size were smaller than for temperature. In the downriver, warmer reach, temperature still had the highest inclusion parameter value, but GPP had the highest standardised effect and nearly as high an inclusion parameter value. 4. We conclude that temperature is the primary limiting factor on growth of humpback chub in the Grand Canyon; however, as water temperatures increase, other factors, especially GPP, are associated with temporal variation in growth rates. Over the past two decades, declines in reservoir elevations and the volume of summer releases have increased downstream water temperatures. If warm temperatures persist into the future, other factors may have increasing roles in regulating interannual variability in chub growth. 5. Field studies of ectotherm growth often emphasise the role of water temperature; however, the role of resource availability is also increasingly recognised, especially in bioenergetics studies. Quantifying resource availability directly can be difficult, especially in large, remote rivers. Here, we show here that using proxies for resource availability (i.e., GPP as a proxy for autochthonous inputs) can yield useful insights regarding resource limitations with implications for management of federally listed fish species in a larger regulated river system.

Arizona↗
USGS2026

Timing, uncertainty, and opportunity cost: Lessons for ecosystem modification on the Colorado River

While conservation goals have long been pursued through traditional species-augmenting actions, a broader set of episodic ecosystem modification (EEM) actions, such as hydropower dam releases, prescribed fire, and beach nourishment, is garnering attention. EEM actions face several implementation challenges stemming from high opportunity costs, delayed effect mechanisms, reliance on monitoring for deployment timing, and outcome uncertainty due to infrequent use. In this paper, we study the use of EEM actions in the form of designer flows—ecologically-motivated releases of water into regulated river segments—to maintain a viable population of a threatened native fish species in the Colorado River. We demonstrate how the cost-effectiveness of EEM actions can be hampered by the complex and delayed effects on species viability, but enhanced through targeted monitoring for timing deployment and experimentation for reducing uncertainty about effectiveness.

Arizona, Utah↗
USGS2026

Integrating mark-recapture, catch, and expert habitat assessments to quantify recent increases in humpback chub abundance over a 200 km long river segment of the Colorado River in western Grand Canyon

Humpback chub, Gila cypha, were historically distributed throughout large portions of the Colorado River basin and were federally listed in 1967. In the Grand Canyon segment of the Colorado River, located below Glen Canyon Dam, chub abundances continued to decline through the early 2000s. Recently, catch has increased substantially, especially in the western Grand Canyon. Here, we integrate mark-recapture and catch data of subadult and adult humpback chub, with expert assessments of habitat suitability and an underlying model of spatial autocorrelation, to estimate abundance in western Grand Canyon from 2010 to 2024, a time of rapid population increase and expansion. Our model suggests that adult abundance grew ∼160 fold during this 15-year period, with a median adult population abundance of 70 000 (40 000–200 000; 95% credible interval) in 2024. Our approach identifies years with high population growth and indicates that the spatial distribution has changed over time. We test the sensitivity of our results to movement into sampling reaches during sampling with baited hoop nets. Despite rapid population growth, the resilience of humpback chub in western Grand Canyon is unknown.

Arizona↗
USGS2026

Spatial ecology and recovery patterns of a translocated mammal community in southern Africa

Conservation translocations are an increasingly common tool to restore wildlife populations within protected areas. Along with identifying and mitigating threats, post-release monitoring allows managers to evaluate recovery effectiveness and improve success rates. Multispecies translocations present challenges in monitoring design, data processing, and analysis. Camera traps coupled with computer-vision-assisted workflows, environmental data, and spatially explicit occupancy models show promise for efficient multispecies monitoring over broad spatiotemporal scales. We applied this approach to a large translocation program in Nkhotakota Wildlife Reserve, Malawi, using a six-year camera-trap dataset to assess recovery patterns of nine large herbivore species. We fit spatial occupancy models to estimate species distributions and trends in landscape use while incorporating environmental covariates and accounting for spatial autocorrelation. African bush elephants ( Loxodonta africana ) and cape buffalo ( Syncerus caffer ) showed the strongest evidence of establishment and expansion, while common eland ( Taurotragus oryx ), greater kudu ( Tragelaphus strepsiceros ), plains zebra ( Equus quagga ), and impala ( Aepyceros melampus ) showed positive but weaker or uneven trends. Sable antelope ( Hippotragus niger ) showed evidence of establishment without expansion, whereas waterbuck ( Kobus ellipsiprymnus ) and warthog ( Phacochoerus africanus ) exhibited negative trends, although support for waterbuck declines was weak. Species exhibited variable and seasonally specific relationships with tree density, proximity to water, elevation, slope, and the reserve boundary, indicating that a range of environmental conditions support this mammal community. Our results demonstrate how spatial occupancy models can provide interpretable recovery indicators for multispecies translocations while highlighting how long-term monitoring can distinguish early recovery, behavioral shifts, and interannual variation from long-term population responses.

Nkhotakota Wildlife Reserve↗
USGS2026

Effects of temperature on ectothermic predators are modulated by warming-induced changes to prey

Global temperature increases can fundamentally alter ecosystems through myriad pathways including by impacting top predators, whose movement, behavior, and trophic interactions often shape the structure of food webs and associated ecosystem processes. Forecasting how ectothermic predators will respond to climate change currently relies heavily on quantifying the direct impacts of temperature on their physiology and performance. However, prey resources are also likely to shift with warming, but less is known about how changes in ecosystem productivity may interact with rising temperatures to influence ectothermic predators. Understanding such interactions can thus help refine predictions for how these consumers will respond to a dynamic future and may clarify recent findings that some cold-water species are buffered and even benefit from warming temperatures despite elevated metabolic costs. Here, we capitalize on a growing body of literature linking temperature increases to changes in invertebrate prey assemblages to describe how these drivers interact to influence the performance (e.g., body size and growth rate) of a globally distributed ectothermic predator in freshwater ecosystems. We disentangled these drivers with a novel approach that blends conceptual synthesis and a mechanistic drift foraging-bioenergetics model developed for Oncorhynchus mykiss (rainbow trout). Overall, we found that warming-induced changes to invertebrate prey assemblage size structure, production, or both, can strongly reshape thermal performance curves describing how rainbow trout respond to temperature. Notably, we found that shifts towards larger-bodied prey or higher prey production increased trout performance across a gradient of temperatures. Additionally, our results show that these shifts in prey also increased the temperature that optimizes fish growth. Our findings underscore the critical role that prey resources may play in either buffering or amplifying future risks of warming and can help improve future conservation and management of ectothermic animals, including cold-water fish, in a warmer and rapidly changing world.

Food Webs↗
USGS2026

Informing policy response to declining water supply in the Colorado River basin: Linking water supply management with outcomes for fish communities

Water-supply managers in the Colorado River Basin are tasked with balancing consumptive water use with natural water supply. Decisions associated with water-supply policy can include where and how much water consumption occurs, where water could be stored, and how to operate reservoirs. Water-supply decisions often affect other resources including energy production, recreation and aquatic ecosystems. The goal of this project was to model how different water supply management scenarios might affect riverine ecosystems with a specific focus on potential impacts on federally listed fish populations, including threatened humpback chub (Gila cypha) and endangered Colorado pikeminnow (Ptychocheilus lucius) and razorback sucker (Xyrauchen texanus). Threats to these endemic species include introduced non-native fish species that often become invasive, like smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu), and altered physical conditions that may favor these non-native fish species over the endemic fish species. Changes in how water supply may be managed in the Colorado River Basin can affect physical conditions in rivers by altering how much water flows through a particular river segment at a given time, by changing the extent of riverine ecosystems between reservoirs, and by determining the quality of water released from storage reservoirs with fixed release elevation (e.g., full reservoirs generally release colder water). To address our goal, we developed tools that coupled water storage models, river temperature models and fish population models to examine how different scenarios to operate Lake Mead, Lake Powell, and Flaming Gorge Reservoir, the three largest reservoirs in the watershed, may affect fish populations. We developed our work plan when available water supply was diminished. At the end of our project period (May 2022), Lake Powell and Lake Mead contained historically low water levels, and our models were being used in evaluating different options for operating Lake Powell by the Bureau of Reclamation and other stakeholders.

Arizona, Utah, Wyoming↗
USGS2025

Long-term monitoring of island night lizards on San Nicolas Island

We describe the results of long-term population monitoring of the island night lizard Xantusia riversiana on San Nicolas Island, California, following the species' removal from the U.S. Endangered Species list in 2014. Monitoring activities were carried out from October 2014 through November 2023, but we also incorporate data from earlier work dating back to 1993. Because of habitat loss on the western part of the island, the island night lizard is almost entirely confined to the island's eastern half. The species' distribution remains largely the same since studies in the 1990s, though small increases in distribution were noted at the island's west end. Numbers at most long-term monitoring sites appeared to show a slight decrease associated with a multi-year drought, with numbers returning to previous levels by the end of the monitoring period. Models fit to counts of newly recruited lizards suggested a positive association between winter precipitation and abundance; however, we found a simpler model including constant abundance throughout the study to be more parsimonious. Two monitoring sites showed marked decreases in numbers, with one site declining to zero following infestation of the area by non-native Argentine ants Linepithema humile . The island's vegetation and natural communities continue to gradually recover from a century of overgrazing by sheep and the widespread introduction of aggressive non-native plants. Habitat restoration efforts by U.S. Navy natural resources staff on the island may lead to increasing population numbers and genetic connectivity, but persistent threats remain for the island night lizard on San Nicolas Island.

California↗
USGS2025

Reservoir operational strategies for sustainable sand management in the Colorado River

Climate change and increasing societal demands for water pose challenges for the management of dam-regulated rivers. Management decisions impact the environment of these rivers, creating the need to balance societal needs with environmental conservation. Here we present a modeling framework that optimizes resource benefits within imposed water use goals for the Colorado River in Grand Canyon, where sandbars are a valued natural feature. The current sand-management paradigm utilizes controlled dam-release floods to build and maintain sandbars without exhausting the limited sand supplied by tributaries downstream from Glen Canyon Dam, which blocks all sand supplied from upriver. High monthly releases outside of controlled floods erode sandbars and cause net sand export from Grand Canyon, reducing the sand available to build sandbars. Releases are high in some months owing to the need to adjust flows to meet annual delivery targets, which can be updated throughout the year. Here, we present alternative strategies for operations that avoid high releases, while meeting water storage and delivery goals. We test these strategies using a simplified reservoir model which accounts for forecast uncertainty. We show how these strategies affect sand mass balance and sandbar size using previously developed models. Strategies optimal for sustainable sandbar building maintained sufficient reservoir elevations for implementing controlled floods, avoided high monthly releases by relaxing annual release constraints, and implemented controlled floods in fall immediately following tributary sand inputs. Coordinated modeling of reservoir operations and environmental resources is valuable for managers seeking to balance societal and environmental needs in regulated rivers worldwide.

Arizona↗
USGS2025

Low water levels interact with reservoir aging to increase the severity of summertime metalimnion dissolved oxygen minima in Lake Powell, desert Southwest, USA

Water level drawdowns are common in reservoirs and can affect dissolved oxygen (DO) dynamics via several pathways. In large storage reservoirs, inflow deltas are often important sites for sediment deposition, with some sediment laden rivers forming highly dynamic delta regions as they enter the reservoir. As water levels change, deposited sediment may be remobilized and affect pelagic DO dynamics. Here, we analyze a long-term set of DO profiles to ask how water levels have interacted with both reservoir age and spring inflow volumes to affect metalimnion low DO events in Lake Powell, desert Southwest, USA. The most supported model suggests that declining water levels interact with reservoir age, such that an older and lower elevation reservoir leads to more metalimnion DO consumption, with larger spring snowmelt inflows furthering DO declines. We also conducted incubations to understand how sediment source, monsoon inputs, and water temperature affect DO demand and nutrient cycling. Incubation oxygen demand varied significantly by sediment source, exhibiting modest temperature dependence at the nonmonsoonal sites. We observed the highest oxygen demand from monsoonal inputs and substantial phosphorus release from 2 of 3 sediment types. Our findings emphasize how reservoir aging and hydrological dynamics can combine to reduce DO availability.

Arizona, Utah↗
USGS2025

Declining reservoir elevations following a two-decade drought increase water temperatures and non-native fish passage facilitating a downstream invasion

River ecosystems are threatened by interactions among river regulation, non-native species, and climate change. Water use has exceeded supply in USA’s Colorado River basin draining its two largest storage reservoirs (Lake Powell and Lake Mead). In 2022, Lake Powell began releasing water from its lower epilimnion into the Grand Canyon segment of the Colorado River, which (1) increased rates of fish passage from the reservoir through the dam and (2) created river temperatures suitable for establishment of non-native fishes. Subsequently, smallmouth bass ( Micropterus dolomieu) reproduced there for the first time. To assist managers concerned about this invasion, we developed models that (1) predicted propagule pressure at different reservoir elevations and (2) linked reservoir storage/operations, water temperatures, and population dynamics to forecast smallmouth bass population growth potential. Maintaining Lake Powell elevations above 1094 m (3590 ft) would likely minimize propagule pressure from the reservoir and create downstream conditions that minimize smallmouth bass population growth. Dam and reservoir management will likely be less effective for managing smallmouth bass if smallmouth bass become abundant in far downstream reaches.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗
USGS2025

Genetic structure of an expanding population of Humpback Chub in Grand Canyon

Objective Humpback Chub (HBC) Gila cypha in Grand Canyon declined in abundance and distribution over the latter part of the 20th century but have substantially increased in abundance and distribution over the past two decades. Although previous genetic work suggested that HBC in Grand Canyon belong to one genetic group, here we evaluate the genetic structure of HBC in Grand Canyon to determine whether relic populations in western Grand Canyon may have contributed unique variation to the recent population expansion or whether differences in behavior linked to migration in eastern Grand Canyon may promote assortative mating and heretofore unrecognized population structure. Methods Using fin clips collected from 167 individual HBC representing four sampling sites within Grand Canyon, we extracted DNA and developed data sets consisting of approximately 20,000 anonymous genomic loci. We quantified patterns of genetic diversity, and we accounted for outlier single-nucleotide polymorphisms to ensure that our interpretations of genetic patterns were not misled by adaptive processes and did not mask adaptively important genetic variation. Results Despite behavioral variation and the possibility that individuals with unique genetic variation survived in isolated warmwater sites within western Grand Canyon, HBC were not differentiated by sampling site or by differences in migratory behavior. Heterozygosity and nucleotide diversity were consistently high among sampling sites, and inbreeding coefficients were close to zero. Conclusions The HBC in Grand Canyon constitute a single genetic population. Our results do not preclude a genetic basis to migratory behavior, but our data suggest that this trait does not lead to assortative mating. Furthermore, while HBC may have survived in discontiguous warmwater refugia in western Grand Canyon during decades when the main stem was too cold for spawning, our data did not reveal any noticeable spatial variability in HBC genetics in the main stem after the recent HBC population expansion.

Arizona↗
USGS2025

The importance of sampling design for unbiased estimation of survival using joint live-recapture and live resight models

Survival is a key life history parameter that can inform management decisions and basic life history research. Because true survival is often confounded with emigration from the study area, many studies are forced to estimate apparent survival (i.e., probability of surviving and remaining inside the study area), which can be much lower than true survival for highly mobile species. One method for estimating true survival is the Barker joint live-recapture/live-resight (JLRLR) model, which combines capture data from a study area (hereafter the ‘capture site’) with resighting data from a broader geographic area. This model assumes that live resights occur throughout the entire area where animals can disperse to and this assumption is often not met in practice. Here we use simulation to evaluate survival bias from a JLRLR model under study design scenarios that differ in the site selection for resights: global, random, fixed including the capture site, and fixed excluding the capture site. Simulation results indicate that fixed designs that included the capture site showed negative survival bias, whereas fixed designs that excluded the capture site exhibited positive survival bias. The magnitude of the bias was dependent on movement and survival, where scenarios with high survival and frequent movement had minimal bias. In an effort to help minimize bias, we developed a multistate version of the JLRLR and demonstrated reductions in survival bias compared to the single-state version for most designs. Our results suggest minimizing bias can be accomplished by: 1) using a random resight design when feasible if global sampling is not possible, 2) using the multistate JLRLR model when appropriate, 3) including the capture site in the resight sampling frame when possible, and 4) reporting survival as apparent survival if fixed sites are used for resight with the single state JLRLR model.

Peer Community Journal↗
USGS2025

Estimating drivers and identifying uncertainties in smallmouth bass population dynamics in an invaded river network

Smallmouth bass ( Micropterus dolomieu ) is an important recreational sportfish and destructive non-native species when introduced into freshwater habitats. There is therefore a need to understand the drivers of, and uncertainties in, smallmouth bass population dynamics for various management objectives. We combined long-term smallmouth bass catch-effort and early life history data from a non-native population in the Green River sub-basin of the upper Colorado River to develop a demographic model that links interannual variability in environmental conditions to recruitment in three river reaches. We used the model to quantify how hydrology, river temperature, and exploitation drive smallmouth bass population dynamics. Early life stages were influenced by timing of hatching and discharge. Dispersal of age-0 fish and density-dependent dynamics were identified as primary sources of uncertainty. Determining the true nature of density-dependent dynamics is important, as the impact of exploitation-based management actions is dependent on the strengths of any density-dependent feedbacks. Our model provides a framework to predict smallmouth bass population responses to future climate conditions, reservoir operations, and exploitation levels.

Utah↗