Geology topics

Carl W Ulberg

Publications and source records attributed to Carl W Ulberg.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2023

Incorporation of real-time earthquake magnitudes estimated via peak ground displacement scaling in the ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning system

The United States earthquake early warning (EEW) system, ShakeAlert®, currently employs two algorithms based on seismic data alone to characterize the earthquake source, reporting the weighted average of their magnitude estimates. Nonsaturating magnitude estimates derived in real time from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data using peak ground displacement (PGD) scaling relationships offer complementary information with the potential to improve EEW reliability for large earthquakes. We have adapted a method that estimates magnitude from PGD ( Crowell et al. , 2016 ) for possible production use by ShakeAlert. To evaluate the potential contribution of the modified algorithm, we installed it on the ShakeAlert development system for real‐time operation and for retrospective analyses using a suite of GNSS data that we compiled. Because of the colored noise structure of typical real‐time GNSS positions, observed PGD values drift over time periods relevant to EEW. To mitigate this effect, we implemented logic within the modified algorithm to control when it issues initial and updated PGD‐derived magnitude estimates ( ⁠ M PGD "> M PGD "> M PGD PGD ⁠ ), and to quantify M PGD "> M PGD PGD uncertainty for use in combining it with estimates from other ShakeAlert algorithms running in parallel. Our analysis suggests that, with these strategies, spuriously large M PGD "> M PGD PGD will seldom be incorporated in ShakeAlert’s magnitude estimate. Retrospective analysis of data from moderate‐to‐great earthquakes demonstrates that the modified algorithm can contribute to better magnitude estimates for M w > 7.0 "> M w > 7.0 w>7.0 events. GNSS station distribution throughout the ShakeAlert region limits how soon the modified algorithm can begin estimating magnitude in some locations. Furthermore, both the station density and the GNSS noise levels limit the minimum magnitude for which the modified algorithm is likely to contribute to the weighted average. This might be addressed by alternative GNSS processing strategies that reduce noise.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2020

Local earthquake Vp and Vs tomography in the Mount St. Helens region with the iMUSH broadband array

We present new 3-D P wave and S wave velocity models of the upper 20 km of the Mount St. Helens (MSH) region. These were obtained using local-source arrival time tomography from earthquakes and explosions recorded at 70 broadband stations deployed as part of the imaging Magma Under St. Helens (iMUSH) project and augmented by several data sets. Principal features of our models include (1) low P wave and S wave velocities along the St. Helens seismic zone to depths of at least 20 km corresponding to high conductivity imaged by iMUSH magnetotelluric studies. This delineates a zone of weakness that magma can exploit at the location of MSH; (2) a 5- to 7-km diameter, 6–15 km deep, 3–6% negative P wave and S wave velocity anomaly beneath MSH, consistent with previous estimates of the source region for recent eruptions. We interpret this as a magma storage region containing up to 15–20 km 3 of partial melt, which is about 5 times more than the largest documented eruption at MSH; (3) a broad region of low P wave velocity below 10-km depth extending between Mount Adams and Mount Rainier along and to the east of the main Cascade arc, which is likely due to high-temperature arc crust and possible presence of fluids or melt; (4) several anomalies associated with surface-mapped features, including high-velocity igneous units such as the Spud Mountain and Spirit Lake plutons and low velocities in the Chehalis sedimentary basin and the Indian Heaven volcanic field. Our results place further constraints on the geometry of these features at depth.

Washington↗

USGS2019

SKS splitting beneath Mount St. Helens: Constraints on subslab mantle entrainment

Observations of seismic anisotropy can provide direct constraints on the character of mantle flow in subduction zones, critical for our broader understanding of subduction dynamics. Here we present over 750 new SKS splitting measurements in the vicinity of Mount St. Helens in the Cascadia subduction zone using a combination of stations from the iMUSH broadband array and Cascades Volcano Observatory network. This provides the highest density of splitting measurements yet available in Cascadia, acting as a focused “telescope” for seismic anisotropy in the subduction zone. We retrieve spatially consistent splitting parameters (mean fast direction Φ : 74°, mean delay time ∂t : 1.0 s) with the azimuthal occurrence of nulls in agreement with the fast direction of splitting. When averaged across the array, a 90° periodicity in splitting parameters as a function of back azimuth is revealed, which has not been recovered previously with single‐station observations. The periodicity is characterized by a sawtooth pattern in Φ with a clearly defined 45° trend. We present new equations that reproduce this behavior based upon known systematic errors when calculating shear wave splitting from data with realistic seismic noise. The corrected results suggest a single layer of anisotropy with an ENE‐WSW fast axis parallel to the motion of the subducting Juan de Fuca plate; in agreement with predictions for entrained subslab mantle flow. The splitting pattern is consistent with that seen throughout Cascadia, suggesting that entrainment of the underlying asthenosphere with the subducting slab is coherent and widespread.

Washington↗

USGS2019

Shear velocity structure from ambient noise and teleseismic surface wave tomography in the Cascades around Mount St. Helens

Mount St. Helens (MSH) lies in the forearc of the Cascades where conditions should be too cold for volcanism. To better understand thermal conditions and magma pathways beneath MSH, data from a dense broadband array are used to produce high‐resolution tomographic images of the crust and upper mantle. Rayleigh‐wave phase‐velocity maps and three‐dimensional images of shear velocity ( Vs ), generated from ambient noise and earthquake surface waves, show that west of MSH the middle‐lower crust is anomalously fast (3.95 ± 0.1 km/s), overlying an anomalously slow uppermost mantle (4.0–4.2 km/s). This combination renders the forearc Moho weak to invisible, with crustal velocity variations being a primary cause; fast crust is necessary to explain the absent Moho. Comparison with predicted rock velocities indicates that the fast crust likely consists of gabbros and basalts of the Siletzia terrane, an accreted oceanic plateau. East of MSH where magmatism is abundant, middle‐lower crust Vs is low (3.45–3.6 km/s), consistent with hot and potentially partly molten crust of more intermediate to felsic composition. This crust overlies mantle with more typical wave speeds, producing a strong Moho. The sharp boundary in crust and mantle Vs within a few kilometers of the MSH edifice correlates with a sharp boundary from low heat flow in the forearc to high arc heat flow and demonstrates that the crustal terrane boundary here couples with thermal structure to focus lateral melt transport from the lower crust westward to arc volcanoes.

Washington↗