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C.C. Barton

Publications and source records attributed to C.C. Barton.

7 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2001

Statistical self-similarity of hotspot seamount volumes modeled as self-similar criticality

The processes responsible for hotspot seamount formation are complex, yet the cumulative frequency-volume distribution of hotspot seamounts in the Easter Island/Salas y Gomez Chain (ESC) is found to be well-described by an upper-truncated power law. We develop a model for hotspot seamount formation where uniform energy input produces events initiated on a self-similar distribution of critical cells. We call this model Self-Similar Criticality (SSC). By allowing the spatial distribution of magma migration to be self-similar, the SSC model recreates the observed ESC seamount volume distribution. The SSC model may have broad applicability to other natural systems.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS1997

Borehole sampling of fracture populations - compensating for borehole sampling bias in crystalline bedrock aquifers, Mirror Lake, Grafton County, New Hampshire

The clustering of orientations of hydraulically conductive fractures in bedrock at the Mirror Lake, New Hampshire fractured rock study site was investigated by comparing the orientations of fracture populations in two subvertical borehole arrays with those mapped on four adjacent subvertical roadcuts. In the boreholes and the roadcuts, the orientation of fracture populations appears very similar after borehole data are compensated for undersampling of steeply dipping fractures. Compensated borehole and pavement fracture data indicate a northeast-striking population of fractures with varying dips concentrated near that of the local foliation in the adjacent rock. The data show no correlation between fracture density (fractures/linear meter) and distance from lithologic contacts in both the boreholes and the roadcuts. The population of water-producing borehole fractures is too small (28 out of 610 fractures) to yield meaningful orientation comparisons. However, the orientation of large aperture fractures (which contains all the producing fractures) contains two or three subsidiary clusters in orientation frequency that are not evident in stereographic projections of the entire population containing all aperture sizes. Further, these subsidiary orientation clusters do not coincide with the dominant (subhorizontal and subvertical) regional fracture orientations.

International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining↗
USGS1996

The 1993 Mississippi river flood: A one hundred or a one thousand year event?

Power-law (fractal) extreme-value statistics are applicable to many natural phenomena under a wide variety of circumstances. Data from a hydrologic station in Keokuk, Iowa, shows the great flood of the Mississippi River in 1993 has a recurrence interval on the order of 100 years using power-law statistics applied to partial-duration flood series and on the order of 1,000 years using a log-Pearson type 3 (LP3) distribution applied to annual series. The LP3 analysis is the federally adopted probability distribution for flood-frequency estimation of extreme events. We suggest that power-law statistics are preferable to LP3 analysis. As a further test of the power-law approach we consider paleoflood data from the Colorado River. We compare power-law and LP3 extrapolations of historical data with these paleo-floods. The results are remarkably similar to those obtained for the Mississippi River: Recurrence intervals from power-law statistics applied to Lees Ferry discharge data are generally consistent with inferred 100- and 1,000-year paleofloods, whereas LP3 analysis gives recurrence intervals that are orders of magnitude longer. For both the Keokuk and Lees Ferry gauges, the use of an annual series introduces an artificial curvature in log-log space that leads to an underestimate of severe floods. Power-law statistics are predicting much shorter recurrence intervals than the federally adopted LP3 statistics. We suggest that if power-law behavior is applicable, then the likelihood of severe floods is much higher. More conservative dam designs and land-use restrictions Nay be required.

Environmental & Engineering Geoscience↗
USGS1993

Nonlinear forecasting analysis of inflation-deflation patterns of an active caldera (Campi Flegrei, Italy)

The ground level in Pozzuoli, Italy, at the center of the Campi Flegrei caldera, was monitored by tide gauges between 1970 and 1976 and then continuously since 1982. Tide gauges offer a long record of a variable that is believed to be related to the activity of an underlying shallow magma chamber. Previous work suggests that the dynamics of the Campi Flegrei system, as reconstructed from the tide gauge record, is chaotic and low dimensional. According to this suggestion, in spite of the complexity of the system, at a time scale of days the ground motion is driven by a deterministic mechanism with few degrees of freedom; however, the interactions of the system may never be describable in full detail. Our new analysis of the tide gauge record from January 1987 to June 1989, using Nonlinear Forecasting, confirms low-dimensional chaos in the ground elevation record at Campi Flegrei and suggests that Nonlinear Forecasting could be a useful tool in volcanic surveillance.

Geology↗