Geology topics

Bruce C. Lubow

Publications and source records attributed to Bruce C. Lubow.

14 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2021

Estimating abundance and simulating fertility control in feral burros

Overabundant populations of feral equids are negatively impacting rangelands in the western United States. To effectively manage these populations, robust estimates of abundance and demography are necessary, as well as cost-effective methods of reducing abundance. We used a double-observer-sightability aerial survey method to estimate the number of feral burros (Equus asinus) occupying the Fort Irwin National Training Center (NTC), California, USA. We examined the efficacy of using porcine zona pellucida (PZP) immunocontraception as a control agent and used matrix population models to simulate how changes in demographic rates would influence abundance. We estimated there were 690 (CI: 618–752) feral burros within the surveyed area, but these are part of a much larger population that is not geographically isolated from those in the survey area. Sighting probabilities ranged from 0.19–0.98 and were most strongly influenced by distance from observer and group size. We estimated age-specific demographic rates at the NTC and compiled mean rates across burro populations in arid environments from the literature. Mean fecundity varied from 0.17 to 0.58 foals per adult female with younger females having lower fecundity. Mean survival was 0.90 for foals, 0.98 for yearlings, and 0.96 for adults. PZP vaccine treatment strategies that suppressed fertility for up to 10 years, predicted that burro abundance would be reduced by 67–88% after 15 years (compared with no treatment), but none of these strategies resulted in population extirpation. Our fieldwork also highlights the difficulty of administering PZP vaccination to large, free-ranging animals. Burro growth rates shifted from increasing to decreasing at adult survival rates below 0.84 and the population was predicted to become extirpated when adult survival declined below 0.60. In the absence of other methods to reduce burro numbers, our findings indicate that current formulations of PZP immunocontraception, which require multiple doses, would be inadequate for controlling population growth rates at the NTC and perhaps elsewhere. Development of longer-term fertility reduction agents and/or more efficient vaccine delivery techniques would likely improve the efficacy of fertility control for overabundant ungulate populations. Lack of geographic closure (physical barriers to migration) further complicates management efforts to reduce burro numbers.

California↗

USGS2020

Standard operating procedures for wild horse and burro double-observer aerial surveys

The U.S. Geological Survey has been collaborating with the Bureau of Land Management to develop statistically reliable methods for wild horse and burro aerial survey data collection and analysis for more than a decade. In cooperation with Colorado State University, the U.S. Geological Survey tested several methods in herds with known abundance, resulting in two scientifically defensible aerial survey and population estimation techniques. These methods are now being applied by the Bureau of Land Management across the western United States, enabling better management of wild horses and burros. The purpose of these Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) is to provide detailed instructions to the Bureau of Land Management wild horse and burro specialists who need to fly aerial surveys for management. This report provides multiple SOPs that are related to Equus caballus (wild horse) and Equus asinus (wild burro) double-observer aerial surveys, along with datasheets, pre-survey checklists, and a quick-guide to the methods. SOP 1 describes how to carry out wild horse and burro aerial surveys as an aviation crew member. SOP 2, SOP 3, and SOP 4 relate to data management, and are important for the wild horse and burro specialist or other lead staff who will be responsible for documenting and archiving records from the survey. SOP 5 details double-observer reporting via a data entry spreadsheet and provides reference for analyzing double observer data to obtain population estimates. SOP 6 presents general principles for preparing aerial survey flight lines. SOP 7 provides instructions for using abundance estimates from aerial surveys to project population size forward in time. The appendixes provide survey datasheets, pre-survey checklists, and a quick-guide to SOP 1.

Techniques and Methods↗

USGS2018

Development of an aerial population survey method for elk (Cervus elaphus) in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado

Executive Summary Since the early 1990s, substantial effort and funding have been expended to conduct research to guide development of a 20-year Elk and Vegetation Management Plan for Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP) in Colorado. One goal of the plan is to maintain the elk ( Cervus elaphus ) population size at the lower end of the natural range of variation. To implement management actions called for in the plan, accurate and reliable population estimates are needed, as well as a better understanding of the spatial and temporal distribution of elk. The previous aerial survey protocol and population estimation model used by the park had not been updated since the model’s initial calibration more than 15 years ago and the model was developed with an insufficient number (n=44) of observations. Thus we initiated research to reevaluate, update, and improve elk population estimation protocols for RMNP. We considered several alternative survey and analysis methods, and concluded that a hybrid population-estimation model using a simultaneous double-observer technique with sighting covariates was the most appropriate and effective aerial survey methodology for this population and the environmental conditions in RMNP. Instructional protocols for conducting these surveys in the future, along with datasheets, are provided in this report’s appendixes. To develop an improved method for aerial elk surveys, we used elk radio-collar location data from our study and other studies, and applied geographic information system analyses to define the survey area and develop effective, repeatable survey transect lines. We used telemetry data from radio-collared elk to inform our understanding of the temporal and spatial scale of elk movements across the park boundary, elk use of tree cover during potential survey hours, and elk use of different elevations within their range. Determining where elk were during surveys helped to fine-tune a survey design that improved spatial cover-age and decreased costs where possible, while standardizing the method to make it repeatable from year to year. We conducted aerial helicopter surveys to test our methodology in an adaptive, iterative process during three winters: 2007–2008, 2008–2009, and 2009–2010. We gained new information on each survey and used results to refine subsequent surveys. Our results confirm that elk movements were highly dynamic with respect to park boundary crossings; an average of six round trips from the park to Estes Park, Colorado, and back per month were taken by global positioning system-collared bull elk. We observed a strong diurnal temporal pattern of bull elk use of trees; elk were found in dense tree cover from 15:00−22:00 but not as often during morning and early afternoon hours when surveys were conducted. We used information on elk use of different altitudes to refine and establish a more efficient survey area. During the time of our study, a concurrent study in the park deployed 120 very high frequency radio collars on elk cows. We used those collar locations during our flights to increase sample size and to evaluate the level of precision we would gain by using “known fates analysis” (in which elk were known to be in the survey area, out of the survey area, or deceased based on radio-collar locations collected simultaneously during aerial surveys). Using radio-collar locations reduced bias by 1.1–8.8 percent and increased precision (that is, reduced the width of confidence intervals). This report provides final population estimates analyzed with and without radio-collar data to demonstrate what is gained by using marked individuals.

Colorado↗

USGS2016

Practical bias correction in aerial surveys of large mammals: Validation of hybrid double-observer with sightability method against known abundance of feral horse (Equus caballus) populations

Reliably estimating wildlife abundance is fundamental to effective management. Aerial surveys are one of the only spatially robust tools for estimating large mammal populations, but statistical sampling methods are required to address detection biases that affect accuracy and precision of the estimates. Although various methods for correcting aerial survey bias are employed on large mammal species around the world, these have rarely been rigorously validated. Several populations of feral horses ( Equus caballus ) in the western United States have been intensively studied, resulting in identification of all unique individuals. This provided a rare opportunity to test aerial survey bias correction on populations of known abundance. We hypothesized that a hybrid method combining simultaneous double-observer and sightability bias correction techniques would accurately estimate abundance. We validated this integrated technique on populations of known size and also on a pair of surveys before and after a known number was removed. Our analysis identified several covariates across the surveys that explained and corrected biases in the estimates. All six tests on known populations produced estimates with deviations from the known value ranging from -8.5% to +13.7% and <0.7 standard errors. Precision varied widely, from 6.1% CV to 25.0% CV. In contrast, the pair of surveys conducted around a known management removal produced an estimated change in population between the surveys that was significantly larger than the known reduction. Although the deviation between was only 9.1%, the precision estimate (CV = 1.6%) may have been artificially low. It was apparent that use of a helicopter in those surveys perturbed the horses, introducing detection error and heterogeneity in a manner that could not be corrected by our statistical models. Our results validate the hybrid method, highlight its potentially broad applicability, identify some limitations, and provide insight and guidance for improving survey designs.

Colorado, Nevada, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2016

Application of a hybrid model to reduce bias and improve precision in population estimates for elk (Cervus elaphus) inhabiting a cold desert ecosystem

Accurately estimating the size of wildlife populations is critical to wildlife management and conservation of species. Raw counts or “minimum counts” are still used as a basis for wildlife management decisions. Uncorrected raw counts are not only negatively biased due to failure to account for undetected animals, but also provide no estimate of precision on which to judge the utility of counts. We applied a hybrid population estimation technique that combined sightability modeling, radio collar-based mark-resight, and simultaneous double count (double-observer) modeling to estimate the population size of elk in a high elevation desert ecosystem. Combining several models maximizes the strengths of each individual model while minimizing their singular weaknesses. We collected data with aerial helicopter surveys of the elk population in the San Luis Valley and adjacent mountains in Colorado State, USA in 2005 and 2007. We present estimates from 7 alternative analyses: 3 based on different methods for obtaining a raw count and 4 based on different statistical models to correct for sighting probability bias. The most reliable of these approaches is a hybrid double-observer sightability model (model M H ), which uses detection patterns of 2 independent observers in a helicopter plus telemetry-based detections of radio collared elk groups. Data were fit to customized mark-resight models with individual sighting covariates. Error estimates were obtained by a bootstrapping procedure. The hybrid method was an improvement over commonly used alternatives, with improved precision compared to sightability modeling and reduced bias compared to double-observer modeling. The resulting population estimate corrected for multiple sources of undercount bias that, if left uncorrected, would have underestimated the true population size by as much as 22.9%. Our comparison of these alternative methods demonstrates how various components of our method contribute to improving the final estimate and demonstrates why each is necessary.

Colorado↗

USGS2015

Elk monitoring in Mount Rainier and Olympic national parks: 2008-2011 synthesis report

In 2008, the USGS collaborated with the NPS, the Muckleshoot and Puyallup Indian Tribes, and WDFW to develop a protocol tor monitor changes in abundance, population composition, and spatial distribution of elk on summer ranges in MORA and OLYM and winter ranges in OLYM. We developed double-observer sightability (DO-S) models that adjusted raw counts of elk as a function of factors influencing detection probabilities from the air, e.g. vegetation, elk group size, light, elk activity, and pilot experience. We plan to develop DO-S models for both MORA and OLYM summer ranges, but due to radiotelemetry collar failures in OLYM, we do not yet have enough data to model detection probabilities in OLYM. We analyzed results of the first 4 years of elk monitoring conducted under the new protocol from 2008-2011. Objectives of this first synthetic analysis are to: • update the DO-S model for MORA aerial survey results • examine abundance, composition, and distribution of elk trends in MORA summer ranges • establish a baseline of counts, population composition, and distribution of elk in OLYM summer ranges • examine trends in counts and distribution of elk in OLYM low-elevation winter ranges during early spring • determine environmental factors influencing abundance and composition of elk in selected MORA summer ranges and unadjusted counts of elk on selected OLYM winter ranges • review progress in developing a DO-S model for OLYM elk surveys • examine aerial survey operations and provide suggestions for future surveys. There was no trend in elk numbers in the N. Rainier TCA from 2008-2011; the trend in the S. Rainier TCA was not statistically significant but increased 3.3%/year. Maximum counts increased in the N. Rainier TCA ~6%/year. Maximum counts in the S. Rainier TCA increased at a rate of 17% annually. Due to failed radiocollars, weather, and other problems, we completed surveys in 2 of 5 OLYM summer range TCAs; no trend data are available. In OLYM winter ranges, we surveyed the Hoh TCA during early spring 2008-10 and of the S. Fork Hoh and Queets in 2008 and 2010. No surveys were done for early-spring counts in 2011 and 2012 due to high snowfall and lack of funding. Legacy early-spring surveys in OLYM since 1985 allowed us to assess trends in counts in the early-spring TCAs from 1985-2010. Counts of elk in the early-spring TCAs declined: 63% in the S. Fork Hoh, 18% in the Hoh, and 22% in the Queets Valley. We continue to develop and improve the DO-S model for application to OLYM summer surveys. In the next synthesis report, we will update findings with additional data following the 2015 field season, based on 8 years of survey results; it will be a more complete analysis of elk population trends.

Washington↗

USGS2013

A hybrid double-observer sightability model for aerial surveys

Raw counts from aerial surveys make no correction for undetected animals and provide no estimate of precision with which to judge the utility of the counts. Sightability modeling and double-observer (DO) modeling are 2 commonly used approaches to account for detection bias and to estimate precision in aerial surveys. We developed a hybrid DO sightability model (model M H ) that uses the strength of each approach to overcome the weakness in the other, for aerial surveys of elk (Cervus elaphus). The hybrid approach uses detection patterns of 2 independent observer pairs in a helicopter and telemetry-based detections of collared elk groups. Candidate M H models reflected hypotheses about effects of recorded covariates and unmodeled heterogeneity on the separate front-seat observer pair and back-seat observer pair detection probabilities. Group size and concealing vegetation cover strongly influenced detection probabilities. The pilot's previous experience participating in aerial surveys influenced detection by the front pair of observers if the elk group was on the pilot's side of the helicopter flight path. In 9 surveys in Mount Rainier National Park, the raw number of elk counted was approximately 80–93% of the abundance estimated by model M H . Uncorrected ratios of bulls per 100 cows generally were low compared to estimates adjusted for detection bias, but ratios of calves per 100 cows were comparable whether based on raw survey counts or adjusted estimates. The hybrid method was an improvement over commonly used alternatives, with improved precision compared to sightability modeling and reduced bias compared to DO modeling.

Washington↗

USGS2012

Ecosystem engineering varies spatially: a test of the vegetation modification paradigm for prairie dogs

Colonial, burrowing herbivores can be engineers of grassland and shrubland ecosystems worldwide. Spatial variation in landscapes suggests caution when extrapolating single-place studies of single species, but lack of data and the need to generalize often leads to ‘model system’ thinking and application of results beyond appropriate statistical inference. Generalizations about the engineering effects of prairie dogs ( Cynomys sp.) developed largely from intensive study at a single complex of black-tailed prairie dogs C. ludovicianus in northern mixed prairie, but have been extrapolated to other ecoregions and prairie dog species in North America, and other colonial, burrowing herbivores. We tested the paradigm that prairie dogs decrease vegetation volume and the cover of grasses and tall shrubs, and increase bare ground and forb cover. We sampled vegetation on and off 279 colonies at 13 complexes of 3 prairie dog species widely distributed across 5 ecoregions in North America. The paradigm was generally supported at 7 black-tailed prairie dog complexes in northern mixed prairie, where vegetation volume, grass cover, and tall shrub cover were lower, and bare ground and forb cover were higher, on colonies than at paired off-colony sites. Outside the northern mixed prairie, all 3 prairie dog species consistently reduced vegetation volume, but their effects on cover of plant functional groups varied with prairie dog species and the grazing tolerance of dominant perennial grasses. White-tailed prairie dogs C. leucurus in sagebrush steppe did not reduce shrub cover, whereas black-tailed prairie dogs suppressed shrub cover at all complexes with tall shrubs in the surrounding habitat matrix. Black-tailed prairie dogs in shortgrass steppe and Gunnison's prairie dogs C. gunnisoni in Colorado Plateau grassland both had relatively minor effects on grass cover, which may reflect the dominance of grazing-tolerant shortgrasses at both complexes. Variation in modification of vegetation structure may be understood in terms of the responses of different dominant perennial grasses to intense defoliation and differences in foraging behavior among prairie dog species. Spatial variation in the engineering role of prairie dogs suggests spatial variation in their keystone role, and spatial variation in the roles of other ecosystem engineers. Thus, ecosystem engineering can have a spatial component not evident from single-place studies.

Ecography: Pattern and Diversity in Ecology↗

USGS2012

A collaborative approach for estimating terrestrial wildlife abundance

Accurately estimating abundance of wildlife is critical for establishing effective conservation and management strategies. Aerial methodologies for estimating abundance are common in developed countries, but they are often impractical for remote areas of developing countries where many of the world's endangered and threatened fauna exist. The alternative terrestrial methodologies can be constrained by limitations on access, technology, and human resources, and have rarely been comprehensively conducted for large terrestrial mammals at landscape scales. We attempted to overcome these problems by incorporating local peoples into a simultaneous point count of Asiatic wild ass (Equus hemionus) and goitered gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa) across the Great Gobi B Strictly Protected Area, Mongolia. Paired observers collected abundance and covariate metrics at 50 observation points and we estimated population sizes using distance sampling theory, but also assessed individual observer error to examine potential bias introduced by the large number of minimally trained observers. We estimated 5671 (95% CI = 3611–8907) wild asses and 5909 (95% CI = 3762–9279) gazelle inhabited the 11,027 km 2 study area at the time of our survey and found that the methodology developed was robust at absorbing the logistical challenges and wide range of observer abilities. This initiative serves as a functional model for estimating terrestrial wildlife abundance while integrating local people into scientific and conservation projects. This, in turn, creates vested interest in conservation by the people who are most influential in, and most affected by, the outcomes.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2012

Aerial survey estimates of fallow deer abundance

Reliable estimates of the distribution and abundance of an ungulate species is essential prior to establishing and implementing a management program. We used ground surveys to determine distribution and ground and aerial surveys and individually marked deer to estimate the abundance of fallow deer (Dama dama) in north-coastal California. Fallow deer had limited distribution and heterogeneous densities. Estimated post-rut densities across 4 annual surveys ranged from a low of 1.4 (SE=0.2) deer/km 2 to a high of 3.3 (se=0.5) deer/km 2 in a low density stratum and from 49.0 (SE=8.3) deer/km 2 to 111.6 deer/km 2 in a high density stratum. Sightability was positively influenced by the presence of white color-phase deer in a group and group size, and varied between airial and ground-based observers and by density strata. Our findings underscore the utility of double-observer surveys and aerial surveys with individually marked deer, both incorporating covariates to model sightability, to estimate deer abundance.

California↗

USGS2009

Survey of ungulate abundance on Santa Rosa Island, Channel Islands National Park, California, March 2009

Reliable estimates of elk (Cervus elaphus) and deer (Odocoileus hemionus) abundance on Santa Rosa Island, Channel Islands National Park, California, are required to assess the success of management actions directed at these species. We conducted a double-observer aerial survey of elk on a large portion of Santa Rosa Island on March 19, 2009. All four persons on the helicopter were treated as observers. We used two analytical approaches: (1) with three capture occasions corresponding to three possible observers, pooling the observations from the two rear-seat observers, and (2) with four capture occasions treating each observer separately. Approach 1 resulted in an estimate of 483 elk in the survey zone with a 95-percent confidence interval of 479 to 524 elk. Approach 2 resulted in an estimate of 489 elk in the survey zone with a 95-percent confidence interval of 471 to 535 elk. Approximately 5 percent of the elk groups that were estimated to have been present in the survey area were not seen by any observer. Fog prevented us from collecting double-observer observations for deer as intended on March 20. However, we did count 434 deer during the double-observer counts of elk on March 19. Both the calculated number of elk and the observed number of deer are minimal estimates of numbers of each ungulate species on Santa Rosa Island as weather conditions precluded us from surveying the entire island.

California↗

USGS2007

Aerial population estimates of wild horses (Equus caballus) in the adobe town and salt wells creek herd management areas using an integrated simultaneous double-count and sightability bias correction technique

An aerial survey technique combining simultaneous double-count and sightability bias correction methodologies was used to estimate the population of wild horses inhabiting Adobe Town and Salt Wells Creek Herd Management Areas, Wyoming. Based on 5 surveys over 4 years, we conclude that the technique produced estimates consistent with the known number of horses removed between surveys and an annual population growth rate of 16.2 percent per year. Therefore, evidence from this series of surveys supports the validity of this survey method. Our results also indicate that the ability of aerial observers to see horse groups is very strongly dependent on skill of the individual observer, size of the horse group, and vegetation cover. It is also more modestly dependent on the ruggedness of the terrain and the position of the sun relative to the observer. We further conclude that censuses, or uncorrected raw counts, are inadequate estimates of population size for this herd. Such uncorrected counts were all undercounts in our trials, and varied in magnitude from year to year and observer to observer. As of April 2007, we estimate that the population of the Adobe Town /Salt Wells Creek complex is 906 horses with a 95 percent confidence interval ranging from 857 to 981 horses.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2006

2005 annual progress report: Elk and bison grazing ecology in the Great Sand Dunes complex of lands

In 2000 the U.S. Congress authorized the expansion of the former Great Sand Dunes National Monument by establishing a new Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve in its place, and establishing the Baca National Wildlife Refuge. The establishment of Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve and the new Baca National Wildlife Refuge in the San Luis Valley (SLV), Colorado was one of the most significant land conservation actions in the western U.S. in recent years. The action was a result of cooperation between the National Park Service (NPS), U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), Bureau of Land Management (BLM), U.S. Forest Service (USDA-FS), and The Nature Conservancy (TNC). The new national park, when fully implemented, will consist of 107,265 acres, the new national preserve 41,872 acres, and the new national wildlife refuge (USFWS lands) 92,180 acres (fig. 1). The area encompassed by this designation protects a number of natural wonders and features including a unique ecosystem of natural sand dunes, the entire watershed of surface and groundwaters that are necessary to preserve and recharge the dunes and adjacent wetlands, a unique stunted forest, and other valuable riparian vegetation communities that support a host of associated wildlife and bird species. When the National Park was initially established, there were concerns about overconcentrations and impacts on native plant communities of the unhunted segments of a large and possibly growing elk (Cervus elaphus) population. This led to the designation of the Preserve as a compromise solution, where the elk could be harvested. The Preserve Unit, however, will not address all the ungulate management challenges. In order to reduce the current elk population, harvests of elk may need to be aggressive. But aggressive special hunts of elk to achieve population reductions can result in elk avoidance of certain areas or elk seeking refuge in areas where they cannot be hunted, while removals of whole herd segments and abandonment or alterations of migration routes can occur (Smith and Robbins, 1994; Boyce and others, 1991). Elk may seek refuge from hunting in the newly expanded Park Unit and TNC lands where they might overconcentrate and impact unique vegetation communities. In these sites of refugia, or preferred loafing sites, elk and bison could accelerate a decline in woody riparian shrubs and trees. This decline may also be due to changes in hydrology, climatic, or dunal processes, but ungulate herbivory might exacerbate the effects of those processes. To address the questions and needs of local resource managers, a multi-agency research project was initiated in 2005 to study the ecology, forage relations, and habitat relations of elk and bison in the Great Sand Dunes–Sangre de Cristo–Baca complex of lands. Meetings and discussions of what this research should include were started in 2001 with representatives from NPS, USFWS, TNC, the Colorado Division of Wildlife (CDOW), and USDA-FS/BLM. The final study plan was successfully funded in 2004 with research scheduled to start in 2005. The research was designed to encompass three major study elements: (1) animal movements and population dynamics, (2) vegetation and nutrient effects from ungulate herbivory, and (3) development of ecological models, using empirical data collected from the first two components, that will include estimates of elk carrying capacity and management scenarios for resource managers.

Colorado↗

USGS2001

Field trials of line transect methods applied to estimation of desert tortoise abundance

We examine the degree to which field observers can meet the assumptions underlying line transect sampling to monitor populations of desert tortoises ( Gopherus agassizii ). We present the results of 2 field trials using artificial tortoise models in 3 size classes. The trials were conducted on 2 occasions on an area south of Las Vegas, Nevada, where the density of the test population was known. In the first trials, conducted largely by experienced biologists who had been involved in tortoise surveys for many years, the density of adult tortoise models was well estimated (-3.9% bias), while the bias was higher (-20%) for subadult tortoise models. The bias for combined data was -12.0%. The bias was largely attributed to the failure to detect all tortoise models on or near the transect centerline. The second trials were conducted with a group of largely inexperienced student volunteers and used somewhat different searching methods, and the results were similar to the first trials. Estimated combined density of subadult and adult tortoise models had a negative bias (-7.3%), again attributable to failure to detect some models on or near the centerline. Experience in desert tortoise biology, either comparing the first and second trials or in the second trial with 2 experienced biologists versus 16 novices, did not have an apparent effect on the quality of the data or the accuracy of the estimates. Observer training, specific to line transect sampling, and field testing are important components of a reliable survey. Line transect sampling represents a viable method for largescale monitoring of populations of desert tortoise; however, field protocol must be improved to assure the key assumptions are met.

Nevada↗