Geology topics

Brian Shiro

Publications and source records attributed to Brian Shiro.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

A decade of precursory seismicity at Mauna Loa: 2013–2022

The 2022 eruption of Mauna Loa was preceded by nearly 10 years of seismic unrest. Using the earthquake catalog of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, we describe and explore many aspects of unrest between January 1, 2013, and the start of the eruption on November 28, 2022 (UTC). Earthquakes associated with unrest occurred above an inflating dike at shallow depths under and to the south of Moku‘āweoweo and in the cluster of seismicity to the west of Moku‘āweoweo associated with a buried rift zone. Earthquakes also occurred in a broad region at the base of the crust, likely associated with a zone of magma accumulation. Unrest is broken down into four phases of increasing intensity with time and into individual geographic regions. While activity occurring at shallow depths under the caldera often alternated with activity on the west flank in the first two phases of unrest, the third phase of unrest featured increased rates of earthquake activity in both areas acting concurrently. We also document a slow shift in seismicity across multiple years from the south of Moku‘āweoweo to an area under the caldera that likely represents a change in the location of the intrusion through time. Broadly speaking, unrest observed in advance of the 2022 eruption occurred in the same areas as the unrest preceding eruptions in 1975 and 1984. Furthermore, precursory unrest prior to eruptions in 1975, 1984 and 2022 lasted years and culminated in an intense phase of seismic activity lasting on the order of hours that represented the final dike propagation to the surface. Concurrent earthquake activity under Moku‘āweoweo and the west flank of Mauna Loa, paired with a shift in earthquakes under Moku‘āweoweo were the two most notable long-term precursors to an eruption; however, neither provided an actionable timeline of an impending eruption. The decade of precursory seismicity prior to the 2022 eruption is similar to long precursory phases prior to eruptions in 1975 and 1984 and underscores the challenges of informing on eruption hazards in a timely manner. By combining seismic activity with other geophysical fields such as geodesy and gravity, we present a conceptual model to aid in the interpretation of future unrest at Mauna Loa.

Hawaii↗

USGS2023

The 2023 US 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview and implications

The US National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) was updated in 2023 for all 50 states using new science on seismicity, fault ruptures, ground motions, and probabilistic techniques to produce a standard of practice for public policy and other engineering applications (defined for return periods greater than ∼475 or less than ∼10,000 years). Changes in 2023 time-independent seismic hazard (both increases and decreases compared to previous NSHMs) are substantial because the new model considers more data and updated earthquake rupture forecasts and ground-motion components. In developing the 2023 model, we tried to apply best available or applicable science based on advice of co-authors, more than 50 reviewers, and hundreds of hazard scientists and end-users, who attended public workshops and provided technical inputs. The hazard assessment incorporates new catalogs, declustering algorithms, gridded seismicity models, magnitude-scaling equations, fault-based structural and deformation models, multi-fault earthquake rupture forecast models, semi-empirical and simulation-based ground-motion models, and site amplification models conditioned on shear-wave velocities of the upper 30 m of soil and deeper sedimentary basin structures. Seismic hazard calculations yield hazard curves at hundreds of thousands of sites, ground-motion maps, uniform-hazard response spectra, and disaggregations developed for pseudo-spectral accelerations at 21 oscillator periods and two peak parameters, Modified Mercalli Intensity, and 8 site classes required by building codes and other public policy applications. Tests show the new model is consistent with past ShakeMap intensity observations. Sensitivity and uncertainty assessments ensure resulting ground motions are compatible with known hazard information and highlight the range and causes of variability in ground motions. We produce several impact products including building seismic design criteria, intensity maps, planning scenarios, and engineering risk assessments showing the potential physical and social impacts. These applications provide a basis for assessing, planning, and mitigating the effects of future earthquakes.

Earthquake Spectra↗

USGS2023

Comment on “A new decade in seismoacoustics (2010–2022)” by Fransiska Dannemann Dugick, Clinton Koch, Elizabeth Berg, Stephen Arrowsmith, and Sarah Albert

An increase in seismic stations also having microbarographs has led to increased interest in the field of seismoacoustics. A review of the recent advances in this field can be found in Dannemann Dugick et al. (2023) . The goal of this note is to draw the attention of the readers of Dannemann Dugick et al. (2023) to several additional interactions between the solid Earth and atmosphere that have not been classically considered in the field of seismoacoustics. The 15 January 2022 Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha‘api eruption produced acoustic gravity waves that were recorded globally. For example, the Lamb wave from this eruption produced early‐arriving and long‐lasting tsunami waves. This eruption also provided globally recorded coupling of atmospheric modes with solid Earth modes, providing another example of the complex interactions that can occur at the boundary between the atmosphere and the solid Earth. Even in the absence of large atmospheric signals, collocated pressure sensors at seismic stations can be a useful tool for estimating the local substructure, such at V S 30 ⁠ , the average shear velocity of the upper 30 m. Finally, at low frequencies, it is possible to use pressure records to correct out atmospheric disturbances recorded on seismometers. We briefly review the aforementioned, nontraditional seismoacoustic topics that we feel are important to consider as part of the full suite of interactions occurring between the solid Earth and atmosphere.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2023

Years of magma intrusion primed Kīlauea Volcano (Hawai'i) for the 2018 eruption: Evidence from olivine diffusion chronometry and monitoring data

The mechanisms that led to the exceptionally large Kīlauea 2018 eruption are still poorly understood and actively debated. External processes such as rainfall events or flank sliding have been proposed to play a triggering role. Here, we present field, geophysical, and petrological observations to show that internal changes within the magmatic plumbing system most likely led to the eruption. Chemical zoning in olivine crystals records the intrusion of primitive magma that is concurrent with deep seismicity and inflation at the volcano’s summit. Magma replenishment and pressurization of the summit reservoirs already started around 2014 and accelerated towards the eruption. Kīlauea volcano was therefore primed to experience a shift in eruptive activity in 2018. This pressure increase associated with reservoir replenishment may have been sufficient to overcome a previously blocked conduit. These findings imply that precursory signs of years of protracted magma intrusion and pressurization of the system may be recognizable in the future, which could lead to improved hazards mitigation.

Hawaii↗

USGS2023

The 2018 eruption of Kīlauea: Insights, puzzles, and opportunities for volcano science

The science of volcanology advances disproportionately during exceptionally large or well-observed eruptions. The 2018 eruption of Kīlauea Volcano (Hawai‘i) was its most impactful in centuries, involving an outpouring of more than one cubic kilometer of basalt, a magnitude 7 flank earthquake, and the volcano’s largest summit collapse since at least the nineteenth century. Eruptive activity was documented in detail, yielding new insights into large caldera-rift eruptions; the geometry of a shallow magma storage-transport system and its interaction with rift zone tectonics; mechanisms of basaltic tephra-producing explosions; caldera collapse mechanics; and the dynamics of fissure eruptions and high-volume lava flows. Insights are broadly applicable to a range of volcanic systems and should reduce risk from future eruptions. Multidisciplinary collaboration will be required to fully leverage the diversity of monitoring data to address many of the most important outstanding questions.

Hawai‘i↗

USGS2022

The global seismographic network reveals atmospherically coupled normal modes excited by the 2022 Hunga Tonga eruption

The eruption of the submarine Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haʻapai (Hunga Tonga) volcano on 15 January 2022, was one of the largest volcanic explosions recorded by modern geophysical instrumentation. The eruption was notable for the broad range of atmospheric wave phenomena it generated and for their unusual coupling with the oceans and solid Earth. The event was recorded worldwide across the Global Seismographic Network (GSN) by seismometers, microbarographs and infrasound sensors. The broad-band instrumentation in the GSN allows us to make high fidelity observations of spheroidal solid Earth normal modes from this event at frequencies near 3.7 and 4.4 mHz. Similar normal mode excitations were reported following the 1991 Pinatubo (Volcanic Explosivity Index of 6) eruption and were predicted, by theory, to arise from the excitation of mesosphere-scale acoustic modes of the atmosphere coupling with the solid Earth. Here, we compare observations for the Hunga Tonga and Pinatubo eruptions and find that both strongly excited the solid Earth normal mode 0 S 29 (3.72 mHz). However, the mean modal amplitude was roughly 11 times larger for the 2022 Hunga Tonga eruption. Estimates of attenuation ( Q ) for 0 S 29 across the GSN from temporal modal decay give Q = 332 ± 101, which is higher than estimates of Q for this mode using earthquake data ( Q = 186.9 ± 5). Two microbarographs located at regional distances (<1000 km) to the volcano provide direct observations of the fundamental acoustic mode of the atmosphere. These pressure oscillations, first observed approximately 40 min after the onset of the eruption, are in phase with the seismic Rayleigh wave excitation and are recorded only by microbarographs in proximity (<1500 km) to the eruption. We infer that excitation of fundamental atmospheric modes occurs within a limited area close to the site of the eruption, where they excite select solid Earth fundamental spheroidal modes of similar frequencies that are globally recorded and have a higher apparent Q due to the extended duration of atmospheric oscillations.

Geophysical Journal International↗

USGS2022

Earthquake-derived seismic velocity changes during the 2018 caldera collapse of Kīlauea volcano

The 2018 Kīlauea caldera collapse produced extraordinary sequences of seismicity and deformation, with 62 episodic collapse events which significantly altered the landscape of the summit region. Despite decades of focused scientific studies at Kīlauea, detailed information about the internal structure of the volcano is limited. Recently developed techniques in seismic interferometry can be used to monitor the internal structure of an active volcano more directly by detecting subtle spatiotemporal changes in seismic wave velocity, but their utility relies on accurate interpretations of the underlying phenomena causing those velocity changes. Here, we retrospectively apply repeating-earthquake-based seismic interferometry to the 2018 Kīlauea eruption sequence. We find that seismic velocities changed over two distinct time scales: a sudden increase followed by a slower decrease in velocity in the hours following each collapse event, and a gradual, long-term decrease in velocity over several weeks that ceased approximately 1 month prior to the end of the eruption. Modeling suggests that short-term changes can be explained by magma reservoir pressurization which specifically closed vertical ring fractures. Long-term changes are related to subsidence of the caldera and likely include the influence of inelastic strain from the formation of new fractures. These observations provide new insights into the evolution of Kīlauea during its progressive collapse and will inform future interpretations for near-real-time monitoring at hazardous volcanoes around the world using similar techniques, especially where a dominant fracture orientation is present.

Hawaii↗

USGS2021

2021 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model for the State of Hawaii

The 2021 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the State of Hawaii updates the two-decades-old former model by incorporating new data and modeling techniques to improve the underlying ground shaking forecasts of tectonic-fault, tectonic-flexure, volcanic, and caldera collapse earthquakes. Two earthquake ground shaking hazard models (public policy and research) are produced that differ in how they account for declustered catalogs. The earthquake source model is based on (1) declustered earthquake catalogs smoothed with adaptive smoothing methods, (2) earthquake rate forecasts based on three temporally varying 60-year time periods, (3) maximum magnitude models that extend to larger earthquakes than previously considered, (4) a separate Kīlauea-specific seismogenic caldera collapse model which accounts for clustered event behavior observed during the 2018 eruption, and (5) fault ruptures that consider historic seismicity, GPS-based strain rates, and a new Quaternary fault database. Two new Hawaii-specific ground motion models (GMMs) and five additional global models consistent with Hawaii shaking data are used to forecast ground shaking at 23 spectral periods and peak parameters. Site effects are modeled using western U.S. and Hawaii specific empirical equations and provide shaking forecasts for eight site classes. For most sites the new model results in similar spectral accelerations as those in the 2001 NSHM, with a few exceptions caused mostly by GMM changes. Ground motions are highest in the southern portion of the Island of Hawai‘i due to high rates of forecasted earthquakes on décollement faults. Shaking decays to the northwest where lower earthquake rates result from flexure of the tectonic plate. Large epistemic uncertainties in source characterizations and GMMs lead to an overall high uncertainty (more than a factor of 3) in ground shaking at Honolulu and Hilo. The new shaking model indicates significant chances of slight or greater damaging ground motions across most of the island chain.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2021

Seismic monitoring during crises at the NEIC in support of the ANSS

Over the past two decades, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) has overcome many operational challenges. These range from minor disruptions, such as power outages, to significant operational changes, including system reconfiguration to handle unique earthquake sequences and the need to handle distributed work during a pandemic. Our ability to overcome crises is built on the development and implementation of a continuity of operations plan, well‐designed infrastructure, adaptive software systems, experienced staff, and extensive collaboration. The NEIC does not operate in a vacuum but benefits from contributions of United States and international seismic networks. Similarly, the overall resilience of earthquake monitoring in the United States and around the globe benefits from the NEIC’s role as the national center for the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS). Here, we highlight significant adaptations the NEIC has made in the face of crises. We discuss the COVID‐19 pandemic, which represents the most significant operational crisis to impact the NEIC. The NEIC has maintained continuous operations during the ongoing COVID‐19 pandemic by shifting from a fully onsite operations center to a distributed hybrid of onsite and telework staffing. We then discuss cases in which the NEIC has supported regional monitoring in the face of significant crises. In 2018, the NEIC assisted the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory with the Kīlauea volcano eruption by responding to large events, implementing contingency monitoring procedures, and calculating moment magnitudes for the low‐frequency caldera collapses. Impacts of a crisis extend beyond the immediate response and often require a significant postevent assessment and a rebuilding phase. After the 2017 Hurricane Maria, the NEIC, the USGS National Strong‐Motion Program, and the USGS Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory worked with the Puerto Rico Seismic Network and the Puerto Rico Strong‐Motion program to assess, plan, and implement upgrades at sites that experienced storm damage.

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS2021

Earthquakes indicated magma viscosity during Kīlauea’s 2018 eruption

Magma viscosity strongly controls the style (for example, explosive versus effusive) of a volcanic eruption and thus its hazard potential, but can only be measured during or after an eruption. The identification of precursors indicative of magma viscosity would enable forecasting of the eruption style and the scale of associated hazards 1 . The unanticipated May 2018 rift intrusion and eruption of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i 2 displayed exceptional chemical and thermal variability in erupted lavas, leading to unpredictable effusion rates and explosivity. Here, using an integrated analysis of seismicity and magma rheology, we show that the orientation of fault-plane solutions (which indicate a fault’s orientation and sense of movement) for earthquakes preceding and accompanying the 2018 eruption indicate a 90-degree local stress-field rotation from background, a phenomenon previously observed only at high-viscosity eruptions 3 , and never before at Kīlauea 4,5,6,7,8 . Experimentally obtained viscosities for 2018 products and earlier lavas from the Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō vents tightly constrain the viscosity threshold required for local stress-field reorientation. We argue that rotated fault-plane solutions in earthquake swarms at Kīlauea and other volcanoes worldwide provide an early indication that unrest involves magma of heightened viscosity, and thus real-time monitoring of the orientations of fault-plane solutions could provide critical information about the style of an impending eruption. Furthermore, our results provide insight into the fundamental nature of coupled failure and flow in complex multiphase systems.

Hawaii↗

USGS2020

Monitoring network changes during the 2018 Kīlauea Volcano eruption

In the summer of 2018, Kīlauea Volcano underwent one of its most significant eruptions in the past few hundred years. The volcano’s summit and East Rift Zone magma system partially drained, resulting in a series of occasionally explosive partial caldera collapses, and widespread lava flows in the lower East Rift Zone. The Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) operates a robust permanent monitoring network of about 250 stations, recording a variety of real‐time data streams: seismic (short‐period, broadband, strong‐motion), infrasound, Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), tilt, camera, laser rangefinder, and gas geochemistry. During the eruption, HVO staff quickly established 35 new temporary monitoring stations, to better constrain evolving volcanic hazards. The partial collapses of the caldera threatened to disrupt important telemetry links in the HVO monitoring network, and a major effort was undertaken in the midst of the eruption crisis to reroute radio telemetry and maintain continuity of data flow. In the process, a new data center was established in Hilo, to mitigate a long‐standing potential single point of failure at the HVO facility. Over the course of the eruption from May through August, lava, ashfall, wildfire, and cliff collapse destroyed or disabled 36 stations. Thousands of earthquakes damaged the main HVO facility at Uēkahuna Bluff, causing staff to evacuate the building and relocate observatory operations in the midst of the eruption response, adding more complexity to the response effort. Throughout these events, the HVO team maintained the monitoring network, provided timely information to the public and emergency managers, and collected valuable scientific data to better understand Kīlauea Volcano.

Hawaii↗

USGS2020

Very‐long‐period (VLP) seismic artifacts during the 2018 caldera collapse at Kīlauea, Hawaii

Throughout the 2018 eruption of Kīlauea volcano (Hawai‘i), episodic collapses of a portion of the volcano’s summit caldera produced repeated M w "> M w 4.9–5.3 earthquakes. Each of these 62 events was characterized by a very‐long‐period (VLP) seismic signal ( ⁠ > 40    s "> > 40 s ⁠ ). Although collapses in the later stage of the eruption produced earthquakes with significant amplitude clipping on near‐summit broadband seismometers, the first 12 were accurately recorded. For these initial collapse events, we compare average VLP seismograms at six near‐summit locations to synthetic seismograms derived from displacements at collocated Global Positioning System stations. We show that the VLP seismic signal was generated by a radially outward and upward ramp function in displacement. We propose that at local distances the period of the VLP seismic signal is solely dependent on the duration of this ramp function and the instrument transfer function, that is, the seismic VLP is an artifact of the bandlimited instrument response and not representative of real ground motion. The displacement ramp function imposes a sinc‐function velocity amplitude spectrum that cannot be fully recovered through standard seismic instrument deconvolution. Any near‐summit VLP signals in instrument‐response‐corrected velocity or displacement seismograms from these collapse events are subject to severe band limitation. Similarly, the seismic amplitude response is not flat through the low‐frequency corner, for example, instrument‐response‐uncorrected seismograms scaled by instrument sensitivity are equally prone to band limitation. This observation is crucial when attempting to clarify the different contributions to the VLP source signature. Not accounting for this effect could lead to misunderstanding of the magmatic processes involved.

Hawaii↗

USGS2020

Seismic velocity variations associated with the 2018 lower East Rift Zone eruption of Kīlauea, Hawaiʻi

The 2018 lower East Rift Zone eruption of Kīlauea (Hawai‘i) marked a dramatic change in the volcano’s 35-year-long rift zone eruption. The collapse of the middle East Rift Zone vent Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō was followed by one of the volcano’s most voluminous eruptions in 500 years. Over the course of this 3-month eruption, the draining of summit-stored magma led to near-daily collapses of a portion of the caldera and ultimately up to 500 m of summit subsidence. While deformation data indicated that the summit and middle East Rift Zone were inflating for the previous several years, why Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō collapsed and what initiated down-rift dike propagation remains unclear. Using ambient noise seismic interferometry, we show that a Ml5.3 decollement earthquake beneath Kīlauea’s south flank in June 2017 induced a coseismic decrease of up to 0.30% in seismic velocity throughout the volcano. This velocity decrease may have been caused by dynamic stress–induced shallow crustal fracture, i.e., weakening to dilatant crack growth, and was greatest near Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō. Additionally, we verify a pre-eruptive increase in seismic velocity, consistent with increasing pressurization in the volcano’s shallow summit magma reservoir. This velocity increase occurred coincident with the first in a series of lower-crustal earthquake swarms, 6 days before a 2-month period of rapid summit and middle East Rift Zone inflation. The increase in up-rift magma-static pressure, combined with the pre-existing weakness from the June 2017 earthquake, may have facilitated down-rift dike propagation and the devastating 2018 eruption.

Hawaii↗

USGS2020

Spatiotemporal seismic structure variations associated with the 2018 Kīlauea eruption based on temporary dense geophone arrays

During the 2018 Kīlauea volcanic eruption, lava erupted from a series of new fissures in the lower East Rift Zone more than 30 km away from the summit through a dike intrusion. Between late May and early August, variations in the effusion rate at the persistent eruptive vent (Fissure 8) were observed following near‐daily summit caldera collapse events. Targeting the ongoing eruptive activity and the subsurface magma movement, we deployed a temporary dense seismic array. The observed time‐lapse changes in seismic velocity associated with the response of the summit collapse in three areas are presented in this study. The results show (1) clear spatially dependent co‐collapse velocity reductions across the newly‐intruded dike structure, (2) a gradual post‐collapse velocity increase near Fissure 8 correlated with the surge of magma supply, and (3) a gradual post‐collapse velocity increase on the summit likely associated with reservoir pressurization and crustal welding.

Hawaii↗

USGS2020

Six-axis ground motion measurements of caldera collapse at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawaiʻi - More data, more puzzles?

Near‐field recordings of large earthquakes and volcano‐induced events using traditional seismological instrumentation often suffer from unaccounted effects of local tilt and saturation of signals. Recent hardware advances have led to the development of the blueSeis‐3A, a very broadband, highly sensitive rotational motion sensor. We installed this sensor in close proximity to permanently deployed classical instrumentation (i.e., translational seismometer, accelerometer, and tiltmeter) at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (USGS). There, we were able to record three ~Mw 5 earthquakes associated with large collapse events during the later phase of the 2018 Kīlauea summit eruption. Located less than 2 km from the origins of these sources, the combined six‐axis translational and rotational measurements revealed clear static rotations around all three coordinate axes. With these six component recordings, we have been able to reconstruct the complete time history of ground motion of a fixed point during an earthquake for the first time.

Hawaii↗

USGS2020

Seismic and geodetic progression of the 2018 summit caldera collapse of Kīlauea Volcano

The 2018 eruption of Kīlauea volcano, Hawaiʻi, resulted in a major collapse of the summit caldera along with an effusive eruption in the lower East Rift Zone. The caldera collapse comprised 62 highly similar collapse cycles of strong ground deformation and earthquake swarms that ended with a magnitude 5 collapse event and one partial cycle that did not end with a collapse event. We analyzed geodetic and seismic data to better understand how the caldera collapse progressed over 3 months of activity, focusing on the cyclical activity. We identified 3 main phases of collapse: initial ring-fault activation and small explosions (Phase 1), an eastward shift in activity and freeing of the central piston (Phase 2), and a recoupling of the piston to the reservoir followed by relatively steady behavior until the eruption’s end (Phase 3). Additionally, we observed geodetic evidence of tangential motion from the localization of the main ring fault (Phase 2) and the formation of a major peripheral ring fault on the eastern side of the collapse caldera during Phase 3. Both geodetic and seismic parameters suggest that the collapse may have had an eastward-component of motion after the ring fault system had formed. The cyclical seismic and geodetic parameters show no obvious signs that the collapse was coming to an end, with the only notable change being a significant increase in the ratio of cyclical displacement to co-collapse displacement observed during the last complete cycle on GNSS stations outside the caldera region.

Hawaii↗

USGS2019

Volcanic hazards in the Pacific U.S. Territories

The Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, and American Samoa lie along the western side of the famed Pacific Ring of Fire. Here, the processes of active island and submarine volcanoes produce activity both underwater and in the atmosphere that poses potential hazards to the daily lives of residents and travelers. Since 2000, CNMI volcanoes have erupted six times, and one submarine volcano has been active in American Samoa.

American Samoa. Commonwealth of the Northern Maria↗

USGS2019

The 2018 rift eruption and summit collapse of Kilauea Volcano

In 2018, Kīlauea Volcano experienced its largest lower East Rift Zone (LERZ) eruption and caldera collapse in at least 200 years. After collapse of the Pu'u 'Ō'ō vent on 30 April, magma propagated downrift. Eruptive fissures opened in the LERZ on 3 May, eventually extending ~6.8 km. A 4 May earthquake (M6.9) produced ~5 m of fault slip. Lava erupted at rates exceeding 100 m3/s, eventually covering 35.5 km2. The summit magma system partially drained, producing minor explosions and near-daily collapses releasing energy equivalent to M4.7-M5.4 earthquakes. Activity declined rapidly on 4 August. Summit collapse and lava flow volume estimates are roughly equivalent--about 0.8 km3. Careful historical observation and monitoring of Kīlauea enabled successful forecasting of hazardous events.

Hawaii↗