Geology topics

Brian S. Fadely

Publications and source records attributed to Brian S. Fadely.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

Evaluating mark–resight survey design performance using simulation: A case study of endangered Steller sea lions

Effective monitoring is fundamental to estimating wildlife population parameters with a level of accuracy and precision that is adequate to inform management decisions. However, managers must balance trade-offs between the costs of monitoring and the resulting data quality to identify cost-effective monitoring survey designs. As such, evaluating the expected performance of monitoring surveys relative to monitoring objectives prior to survey implementation is critical. In this study, we present a simulation framework for examining the accuracy and precision of age-specific survival estimates and the probability of detecting a change in survival within the context of mark–resight monitoring programs. We consider 90 survey designs that vary across marked cohort size, marking frequency, study duration, and resight probability (i.e., detection of marked individuals). We apply this approach to the design of a monitoring program for Steller sea lions ( Eumetopias jubatus ), which is complicated by heterogeneity in rookery accessibility, population sizes, and abundance trends across the species' range. To identify cost-effective survey designs in the absence of actual survey costs, we evaluated performance with respect to a relative-costs schema. Our results highlight survey designs that reliably meet pre-defined precision targets, with precision and accuracy strongly affected by marked cohort size, marking frequency, and study duration. We found that historical mark–resight survey effort for Steller sea lions has been sufficient to reliably achieve precision targets for younger age class survival probabilities only for rookeries where abundance has been stable or increasing. In contrast, the probability of achieving survival estimates with target levels of precision at rookeries where abundance has been declining is low (<25%) due to smaller marked cohort sizes, less frequent marking at remote sites, and fewer years of available data. Our results indicate that the precision of survival estimates for subpopulations of conservation concern can be improved by longer-term monitoring, although the constraints of monitoring small populations may limit the ability of biologists to detect changes in population dynamics on management-relevant time horizons. Our survey design evaluation framework can be applied in a variety of contexts to assist natural resource managers in developing cost-effective monitoring programs.

Alaska, California, Oregon↗

USGS2018

Temporal records of diet diversity dynamics in individual adult female Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) vibrissae

Detailed information on the nutrition of free-ranging mammals contributes to the understanding of life history requirements, yet is often quite limited temporally for most species. Reliable dietary inferences can be made by analyzing the stable carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) isotopic values ( δ 13 C and δ 15 N) of some consumer tissues; exactly which tissue is utilized dictates the inferential scope. Steller sea lion (SSL) vibrissae are grown continuously without shedding and thus provide a continuous multi-year record of dietary consumption. We applied a novel kernel density approach to compare the δ 13 C and δ 15 N values along the length of SSL vibrissae with δ 13 C and δ 15 N distributions of potential prey species. This resulted in time-series of proportion estimates of dietary consumption for individual SSL. Substantial overlap in δ 13 C and δ 15 N distributions for prey species prevented a discrete species-scale assessment of SSL diets; however, a post hoc correlational analysis of diet proportion estimates revealed grouping by trophic level. Our findings suggest that adult female SSL diets in the western and central Aleutian Islands shift significantly according to season: diets contain a higher proportion of lower trophic level species (Pacific Ocean perch, northern rockfish, Atka mackerel and walleye pollock) in the summer, whereas in the winter SSL consume a much more diverse diet which includes a greater proportion of higher trophic level species (arrowtooth flounder, Kamchatka flounder, darkfin sculpin, Pacific cod, Pacific octopus, rock sole, snailfish, and yellow Irish lord).

Oecologia↗

USGS2008

Adult survival of Black-legged Kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla in a Pacific colony

Breeding Black-legged Kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla survived at a mean annual rate of 0.926 in four years at a colony in Alaska. Survival rates observed in sexed males (0.930) and females (0.937) did not differ significantly. The rate of return among nonbreeding Kittiwakes (0.839) was lower than that of known breeders, presumably because more nonbreeders moved away from the study plots where they were marked. Individual nonbreeders frequented sites up to 5 km apart on the same island, while a few established breeders moved up to 2.5 km between years. Mate retention in breeding Kittiwakes averaged 69% in three years. Among pairs that split, the cause of changing mates was about equally divided between death (46%) and divorce (54%). Average adult life expectancy was estimated at 13.0 years. Combined with annual productivity averaging 0.17 chick per nest, the observed survival was insufficient for maintaining population size. Rather, an irregular decline observed in the study colony since 1981 is consistent with the model of a closed population with little or no recruitment. Compared to their Atlantic counterparts, Pacific Kittiwakes have low productivity and high survival. The question arises whether differences reflect phenotypic plasticity or genetically determined variation in population parameters.

Alaska↗

USGS1991

The distribution of seabirds and fish in relation to ocean currents in the southeastern Chukchi Sea

In late August 1988, we studied the distribution of seabirds in the southeastern Chukchi Sea, particularly in waters near a major seabird colony at Cape Thompson. Foraging areas were characterized using hydrographic data obtained from hydroacoustic surveys for fish. Murres ( Uria spp. ) and Black-legged Kitttiwakes Rissa tridactyla breeding at Cape Thompson fed mostly on Arctic cod, which are known from previous studies to be the most abundant pelagic fish in the region. Our hydroacoustic surveys revealed that pelagic fish were distributed widely, but densities were estimated to be low (e.g., 0.1-10 g∙m -3 ) throughout the study area and a few schools were recorded. Large feeding flocks of murres and kittiwakes were observed over fish schools with densities estimated to exceed 15 g∙m -3 . Fish densities were higher in shallow Alaska Coastal Current waters than offshore in Bering Sea waters, and most piscivorous seabirds foraged in coastal waters. Poor kittiwake breeding success and a low frequency of fish in murre and kittiwake stomachs in late August suggested that fish densities were marginal for sustaining breeding seabirds at that time. Planktivorous Least Auklets Aethia pusilla and Parakeet Auklets Cyclorrhynchus psittacula foraged almost exclusively in Bering Sea waters. Short-tailed Shearwaters Puffinus tenuirostris and Tufted Puffins Fratercula cirrhata foraged in transitional waters at the front between Coastal and Bering Sea currents.

Alaska↗

USGS1989

Populations, productivity, and feeding habits of seabirds at Cape Thompson, Alaska: Final report

Investigations of seabird population sizes and breeding biology were conducted at Cape Thompson from 1959 to 1961 during pre-development studies associated with the Atomic through 1982, the Alaskan Program (OCSEAP) supported determine whether changes Energy Commission’s “Project Chariot.” From 1976 Outer Continental Shelf Environmental Assessment efforts to recensus seabirds at Cape Thompson and had occurred since the 1959-61 period. Prior to the present study, it had been 6 years since the last efforts to census seabird colonies in this area. We established a field camp at the and occupied it continuously until 31 were selected for cliff nesting species comprising the Cape Thompson complex, mouth of Ikijaktusak Creek on 2 July August 1988. Permanent study plots in four of the five discrete colonies and regular observations were made throughout the study to document attendance patterns, breeding phenology, and success of murres and kittiwakes. Periodic collections of adults offshore were used to determine the food habits of study species. Shore-based work was supplemented with offshore studies of seabird foraging from the USFWS vessel Eagle-Tiglax, 24-31 August (Fig. 2). Correlation analysis revealed negative trends in murre attendance at all Cape Thompson colonies between 1960 and 1982 or 1988, significantly so for 3 of the 5 colonies. Based on apparent changes in species composition within the colonies, Common Murres declined at a more rapid rate than Thick-billed Murres between 1960 and 1988. Combining information from all colonies, it appears that murre populations have been relatively stable since about 1979. In contrast to murres, the kittiwake population showed no significant trends between 1960 and 1982 or between 1960 and 1988. All fluctuations in kittiwake numbers documented between years were within the variability expected within years. Breeding productivity of murres was about average during 1988 (0.47 young/pair), whereas the productivity of kittiwakes was very poor (0.15 young/pair). Murres and kittiwakes fed mostly on arctic cod and sand lance distributed widely but in low concentrations (e.g., 0.1-10 g/m 3 ) UP to 1.20 km north and northwest of Cape Thompson. In the total area surveyed (225 km 2 ), only two major feeding aggregations were observed where fish school densities exceeded 15 g/ins. Forage fish densities were higher in shallow Alaska Coastal Current waters than offshore in Bering Sea waters, and piscivorous seabirds like murres and kittiwakes fed mostly in coastal waters. Reduced numbers of fish in murre and kittiwake stomachs in August and low breeding success of kittiwakes suggested that forage fish densities observed around Cape Thompson in late August were sufficient to sustain murres but were insufficient for, or inaccessible to, kittiwakes. The breeding failure of Black-legged Kittiwakes at Cape Thompson in 1988 was part throughout causes of kittiwakes of a pervasive syndrome of failure in this species observed the Bering/Chukchi seas and Gulf of Alaska in recent years. The recurrent widespread breeding failure need to be identified if are to have a role in area-wide population monitoring during the period of Alaskan OCS development by the oil and gas industry. The system of land-based plots established in 1988 is recommended for future population monitoring of cliff-nesting birds at Cape Thompson. Based on the coefficients of variation among counts observed in this study, it is estimated that 10 replicate counts per year would detect an 8% change in numbers of Thick-billed Murres between years and a 12% change in Common Murres, with 75% certainty of statistical significance at the 0.05 level. Similarly, a 9% annual change in the population of Black-legged Kittiwakes should be detectable at the 0.05 significance level given samples of 10 replicate counts of the land-based plots.

Alaska↗