Brian K. Wells | Search USGS

USGS2018

Spatial variability in ocean-mediated growth potential is linked to Chinook salmon survival

Early ocean survival of Chinook salmon, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, varies greatly inter-annually and may be the period during which later spawning abundance and fishery recruitment are set. Therefore, identifying environmental drivers related to early survival may inform better models for management and sustainability of salmon in a variable environment. With this in mind, our main objectives were to (a) identify regions of high temporal variability in growth potential over a 23-year time series, (b) determine whether the spatial distribution of growth potential was correlated with observed oceanographic conditions, and (c) determine whether these spatial patterns in growth potential could be used to estimate juvenile salmon survival. We applied this method to the fall run of the Central Valley Chinook salmon population, focusing on the spring and summer period after emigration into central California coastal waters. For the period from 1988 to 2010, juvenile salmon growth potential on the central California continental shelf was described by three spatial patterns. These three patterns were most correlated with upwelling, detrended sea level anomalies, and the strength of onshore/offshore currents, respectively. Using the annual strength of these three patterns, as well as the overall growth potential throughout central California coastal waters, in a generalized linear model we explained 82% of the variation in juvenile salmon survival estimates. We attributed the relationship between growth potential and survival to variability in environmental conditions experienced by juvenile salmon during their first year at sea, as well as potential shifts in predation pressure following out-migration into coastal waters.

Fisheries Oceanography↗

USGS2017

Environmental conditions and prey-switching by a seabird predator impact juvenile salmon survival

Due to spatio-temporal variability of lower trophic-level productivity along the California Current Ecosystem (CCE), predators must be capable of switching prey or foraging areas in response to changes in environmental conditions and available forage. The Gulf of the Farallones in central California represents a biodiversity hotspot and contains the largest common murre ( Uria aalge ) colonies along the CCE. During spring, one of the West Coast's most important Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) populations out-migrates into the Gulf of the Farallones. We quantify the effect of predation on juvenile Chinook salmon associated with ecosystem-level variability by integrating long-term time series of environmental conditions (upwelling, river discharge), forage species abundance within central CCE, and population size, at-sea distribution, and diet of the common murre. Our results demonstrate common murres typically forage in the vicinity of their offshore breeding sites, but in years in which their primary prey, pelagic young-of-year rockfish ( Sebastes spp.), are less available they forage for adult northern anchovies ( Engraulis mordax ) nearshore . Incidentally, while foraging inshore, common murre consumption of out-migrating juvenile Chinook salmon, which are collocated with northern anchovy, increases and population survival of the salmon is significantly reduced. Results support earlier findings that show timing and strength of upwelling , and the resultant forage fish assemblage, is related to Chinook salmon recruitment variability in the CCE, but we extend those results by demonstrating the significance of top-down impacts associated with these bottom-up dynamics. Our results demonstrate the complexity of ecosystem interactions and impacts between higher trophic-level predators and their prey, complexities necessary to quantify in order to parameterize ecosystem models and evaluate likely outcomes of ecosystem management options.

California↗