Geology topics

Brian J. Irwin

Publications and source records attributed to Brian J. Irwin.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Using demographic estimation and power analysis to inform monitoring efforts and detect declines in freshwater mussels

Population assessments can be used to determine species' viability and inform conservation efforts; however, obtaining sufficient data quality and quantity can be challenging when monitoring resources are scarce. Brook Floater ( Alasmidonta varicosa ) is a freshwater mussel that is state listed in the United States as endangered or threatened in 10 of the 14 states it occupies. Despite the conservation concern, little is known about the size and demographics of most Brook Floater populations. The primary objective of this study was to determine demographic parameters (abundance and survival) for Brook Floater at five newly established, long-term monitoring sites in Maine and Massachusetts, United States. A secondary objective was to evaluate tradeoffs of potential future sampling strategies by state natural resource agencies at these monitoring sites. Mussels were sampled at each site using visual and tactile snorkel surveys twice each summer during 2018–2020 and marked with alphanumeric tags to distinguish individuals. We considered a candidate set of capture-recapture models that allowed parameters to vary depending on year, sampling occasion, and individual shell length. Abundance estimates among sites varied widely, from 29 individuals (range: 12–119) in the Nissitissit River in Massachusetts to 311 individuals (range: 307–320) in the East Branch of the Pleasant River in Maine. Annual survival was high across all sites (0.87–0.96). Given the differences in capture probability and abundance between states, we determined the statistical power available to detect given population declines in Massachusetts and explored alternative population abundance estimators in Maine. The power analysis suggested that the existing sampling regimen in Maine is likely adequate while sampling in Massachusetts may require additional occasions each year to realistically detect population declines with sufficient statistical power. This analysis demonstrates the utility of considering sampling frequency when designing capture-recapture studies for freshwater mussels and other taxa.

Maine, Massachusetts↗

USGS2026

Habitat and landscape variables affecting Corbicula fluminea presence in the upper Savannah River drainage (USA)

Aquatic invasive species ( AIS ) are amongst the greatest threats to native aquatic biodiversity. These introduced species often thrive in human-altered environments and spread through human-mediated pathways to invade new watersheds. Corbicula fluminea is a freshwater bivalve native to southeastern Asia first introduced in North America in Seattle, WA, in 1938 and has spread to nearly every major watershed in the southeastern United States. In the present study, we use an information theoretic framework to compare landscape and stream habitat variables associated with C. fluminea presence across five HUC10 watersheds in the upper Savannah River basin of South Carolina and Georgia, USA. Predictive models included landscape-level and site-level habitat variables associated with agricultural, developed, and forested landscapes. Models with variables associated with forested and developed landscapes were the top performing models based on AICc values. In top performing models C. fluminea presence was positively correlated with increased stream width, but negatively correlated with substrates dominated by cobble. Lower performing models highlight positive correlations with the presence of upstream reservoirs and increased developed landscape surrounding the site. Identification of habitat and landscape correlates with invasive species presence may lead to more efficient introduction monitoring efforts for conservation managers.

Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina↗

USGS2026

Seasonal and annual survival of acoustically tagged juvenile Gulf sturgeon in the Apalachicola River, Florida, USA

Gulf sturgeon Acipenser desotoi are anadromous fish that have undergone major population declines throughout their range. Habitat alteration and previous overharvest in commercial fisheries led to the species being listed as ‘threatened’ under the US Endangered Species Act in 1991. An accurate understanding of population dynamics, including survival, is necessary for monitoring population trends and recovery. Juvenile Gulf sturgeon are migratory within their natal river system; their survival is not well-studied, but their over-winter occupation of more saline habitat has been identified as a potential bottleneck to juvenile survival. Therefore, we estimated over-winter and annual survival of juvenile Gulf sturgeon in the Apalachicola River system (Florida, USA) using Cormack-Jolly-Seber models informed by acoustic telemetry data from 2014-2023. Seasonal apparent survival estimates ranged from 0.96 in the fall to 0.99 in the spring. Contrary to our expectation, results indicated that survival was high across all seasons with no notable difference in over-winter survival compared to other periods. We also estimated apparent annual survival to be 0.76 for juvenile Gulf sturgeon in the system. These findings suggest that over-winter juvenile mortality is not a major bottleneck to Gulf sturgeon population recovery within the Apalachicola River.

Florida↗

USGS2026

Climate change and water quality influence on juvenile Atlantic sturgeon aggregation in the Altamaha River, Georgia

In the summer, juvenile Atlantic sturgeon ( Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus ) are vulnerable to extreme water quality conditions (i.e., temperature, dissolved oxygen [DO], and salinity) in the estuaries they inhabit. The effects of climate change on Atlantic sturgeon are largely unknown, but it may exacerbate these water quality issues. We used a 20-year dataset from the Altamaha River estuary, Georgia, USA to fit negative binomial mixed-effects models describing the relationship between water quality and catch per net hour of juvenile Atlantic sturgeon. Water temperature and DO were significant positive predictors of catch; salinity and sampling year were significant negative predictors. The interaction between temperature and DO was also significant. Water temperature, salinity, and year were significant in explaining variability in catch. Our modeling results suggest that response to water quality depends on fish age. Next, we used global climate projections to construct future climate scenarios incorporating warming water and increased salinity. By coupling these predictions with catch models, we forecast juvenile Atlantic sturgeon catch as a proxy for distribution. Water temperature increases of 1–5 °C led to predicted catch increases of 5–24%, although this result may be influenced by aggregation behavior or sampling limitations at high temperatures. Salinity increases of 1–2 ppt led to 9–17% decreases in catch, suggesting that saltwater intrusion may limit future Atlantic sturgeon estuarine habitat availability. Our study combines a long-term dataset with a robust statistical modeling approach to offer some of the first insights into future climate change effects on juvenile Atlantic sturgeon’s southern nursery habitats.

Georgia↗

USGS2026

Estimating the power of a standardized monitoring program for sportfish in Georgia, USA

Objective Biological monitoring is a major component of management decisions and operating budgets of many natural resource management agencies. Given the scientific and financial commitments to monitoring, it is critical to estimate the ability to detect trends through time (i.e., power). Methods The Georgia Department of Natural Resources has monitored reservoir sport fish populations since the 1980s. We estimated the power to detect simulated long-term (≥10 years) changes in relative abundance (CPUE) for Largemouth Bass (some of which are a potential genetic admixture of the recently described species Micropterus nigricans [now known as Largemouth Bass] and M. salmoides [now known as Florida Bass)] and Black Crappie Pomoxis nigromaculatus sampled with electrofishing and gill nets, respectively, across multiple reservoirs ( n = 21). Reservoir-specific simulations were parameterized using 13 years (∼2010–2022) of monitoring data. Power was calculated as the proportion of simulations ( n = 1,000) resulting in significant ( P ≤ 0.1) temporal trends across a 10-year period. We considered power ≥0.8 (i.e., 80% of simulations with significant trends) as the threshold for sufficient power across reservoirs. For both species, we estimated power under three scenarios: (1) declining CPUE, (2) increasing CPUE, and (3) reduction to biennial sampling effort with a 50% decline in CPUE. Results Most reservoirs had sufficient power to detect either a 50% decline or a 100% increase in CPUE of Largemouth Bass across a 10-year period. Switching from annual to biennial sampling for Largemouth Bass reduced the number of reservoirs with sufficient power by half. Power was generally lower for Black Crappie until larger declines (75%) or increases (400%) were imposed. Conclusions We found that Largemouth Bass monitoring was generally near or beyond our reference threshold, but post hoc correlation analyses suggested that the power of Black Crappie data could be increased with more within-reservoir station replication. Overall, using data simulation to estimate power proved a valuable tool in assessing the potential ability of common monitoring approaches to detect change.

Georgia↗

USGS2025

Participatory modelling to support evaluation of management actions for recreational fisheries

Participatory modelling (PM) is a collaborative problem-solving approach that involves shared learning through the development of a model or multiple models with a group of participants and a modelling team. PM has the potential to be used more frequently to address recreational fisheries problems. We focus on our experience working with small groups (usually <40 people) to address natural resource issues. This chapter focuses on building a PM team and the communications that occur before, during, and after a PM process. The participants usually include people like recreational and commercial fishers, members of environmental non-governmental organizations, and fishery managers or other decision makers. Ground rules, expectations, and end goals should be established early in the PM process. We emphasize that benefits arise from including the participants in the development and validation of the models in a process that includes feedback between the modellers and participants. Although participants are ideally involved in all stages, their inclusion during model development and testing can be critical for buy-in within the group. When the modellers listen carefully to participant concerns and respond to those concerns during model development, we have experienced favourable process outcomes such as improved participant engagement and building of trust.

Book chapter↗

USGS2025

Warmer Is deadlier: A meta‐analysis reveals increasing temperatures accentuate disease effects on fisheries hosts

Rapid warming could drastically alter host–parasite relationships, which is especially important for fisheries crucial to human nutrition and economic livelihoods, yet we lack a synthetic understanding of how warming influences parasite-induced mortality in these systems. We conducted a meta-analysis using 266 effect sizes from 52 empirical papers on harvested aquatic species and determined the relationship between parasite-induced host mortality and temperature and how this relationship was altered by host, parasite, and study design traits. Overall, higher temperatures increased parasite-induced host mortality; however, the magnitude of this relationship varied. Hosts from the order Salmoniformes experienced a greater increase in parasite-induced mortality with temperature than the average response to temperature across fish orders. Opportunistic parasites were associated with a greater increase in infected host mortality with temperature than the average across parasite strategies, while bacterial parasites were associated with lower infected host mortality as temperature increased than the average across parasite types. Thus, parasites will generally increase host mortality as the environment warms; however, this effect will vary among systems.

Ecological Letters↗

USGS2025

First evidence of natural reproduction and recruitment of reintroduced Lake Sturgeon in the Coosa River, Georgia

Objective Lake Sturgeon Acipenser fluences became extirpated from the Coosa River system in Georgia and Alabama during the 1970s. The Georgia Department of Natural Resources began stocking hatchery-raised Lake Sturgeon in 2002 with the goal of reestablishing a self-sustaining population. Stocking lapsed in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which allowed an opportunity to assess natural recruitment to the reintroduced population. Methods We conducted trammel-net surveys during May–August in 2022 and 2023 and removed a pectoral fin spine section from all captured individuals. We compared the fin spine sections of suspected naturally hatched juveniles with those from known-age, hatchery-raised juveniles to confirm our age estimates. Results We captured one age-2 juvenile Lake Sturgeon in 2022 and eight age-3 juveniles in 2023. This indicates the presence of natural recruitment due to the absence of stocking of hatchery individuals in 2020. Conclusions Documenting individuals of a year-class that was not created by hatchery-raised juveniles provides the first evidence that offspring of early reintroduced Lake Sturgeon are being recruited into the reintroduced population in the Coosa River, Georgia.

Alabama, Georgia↗

USGS2024

Disparities in Perimyotis subflavus body mass between cave and culvert hibernacula in Georgia, USA

The tricolored bat ( Perimyotis subflavus ), once common in the eastern United States, has experienced significant mortality due to white-nose syndrome (WNS), a fungal disease that primarily affects bats hibernating in caves and mines. In coastal regions of the southeastern United States, where caves and mines are scarce, tricolored bats often use roadway culverts as hibernacula. However, WNS infection dynamics in culverts are poorly understood. Previous research indicated that bats with higher body mass at the onset of hibernation have a higher probability of surviving repeated arousal events from WNS. Therefore, we compared tricolored bat winter body mass between cave and culvert hibernacula and identified culvert characteristics influencing body mass during hibernation in Georgia, USA. From 2018 to 2022, we measured body mass of 754 individuals in early and late hibernation across 32 culverts ( n = 497) and four caves ( n = 257). Our study revealed a southward spread of the fungus over multiple years, with the first confirmed case of WNS in a Georgia culvert in 2022. Overall, tricolored bats in caves weighed more in early hibernation than those in culverts, but bats in culverts weighed more in late hibernation. Across all sites, female tricolored bats entering and leaving hibernation had greater mass than males but lost more mass during hibernation, possibly due to differences in torpor-arousal patterns and WNS infection rates. Additionally, all bats lost more mass in longer culverts. Understanding culvert characteristics affecting bat body mass will inform management strategies to mitigate WNS effects. Identifying risk factors for specific tricolored bat hibernacula can guide managers on where to focus winter WNS monitoring efforts and potential treatments.

Georgia↗

USGS2024

Life-history connections to long-term fish population trends in a species-rich temperate river

Fishes exhibit a diverse range of traits encompassing life-history strategies, feeding behaviours and spawning behaviours. These traits mediate fish population responses to changing environmental conditions such as those caused by anthropogenic stressors. The Conasauga River, located in northwestern Georgia and southeastern Tennessee, USA, hosts a diverse assemblage of over 75 species of freshwater fish, some of which are locally or regionally endemic, and many of which are imperilled. Annual monitoring data have shown population declines in multiple fish species of conservation concern in the Conasauga River since at least the 1990s, raising the possibility that other taxa could be declining as well. We quantified temporal changes in fish communities at six shoal sites sampled annually in most years from 1996 to 2022, and asked whether species traits hypothesized to underlie population vulnerability to environmental alteration were correlated with species-specific trends for 32 taxa. We estimated that total counts of fish in annual samples declined by ~2% per year, although declines were uneven among species and generally greater for less abundant taxa. Tests for species traits corresponding to temporal population trends provided evidence that crevice-spawning minnows and smaller-bodied taxa had steeper declines compared with broadcast spawners and larger, longer-lived, more fecund taxa. Lower abundance, reliance on a particular habitat feature, and life-history traits that may limit population resilience to disturbance may all prove useful for identifying riverine fishes at particular risk of future population decline.

Georgia↗

USGS2023

Managing the threat of infectious disease in fisheries and aquaculture using structured decision making

Fisheries and aquaculture provide food and economic security, especially in the developing world, but both face challenges from infectious disease. Here, we consider management of disease issues from a structured decision-making perspective to examine how infectious disease can threaten seafood production and influence management decisions. For both wild fisheries and aquaculture, disease-management objectives generally aim to mitigate the severity and economic burden of outbreaks. General management strategies include manipulating host densities, reducing system connectivity, conserving or improving habitat, and implementing direct treatments or some other biological interventions. To inform decisions, mathematical models can be used to explore disease dynamics and to forecast the potential effectiveness of alternative management actions. Developing and implementing disease-management strategies also involve considering uncertainties and balancing competing stakeholder interests and risk tolerances. We conclude by outlining several steps for applying structured decision making that are broadly useful to decision makers facing issues related to disease.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

USGS2023

Refining capture-recapture recruitment estimation methods for Atlantic sturgeon

The Atlantic sturgeon Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus was once of great commercial importance in many coastal rivers of the eastern USA. Over the 19th and 20th centuries, most historical stocks of Atlantic sturgeon were depleted by human activities. Estimating recruitment for the remaining populations is challenging due to sampling constraints, limited age data, and natural variability. However, recruitment estimates could inform recovery efforts. The objectives of this study were to compare 2 modeling approaches to estimate recruitment of age-1 Atlantic sturgeon and provide an updated index of abundance across more than a decade of sampling in the Altamaha River, Georgia. First, we constructed capture histories of river-resident juveniles, using capture-mark-recapture data collected from 2008 to 2020, and assigned ages based on length-frequency analysis. Second, we compared more traditional Huggins closed population models and a recent nonlinear extension of Huggins models—vector generalized additive models (VGAMs)—to estimate abundance of age-1 fish. Both model types indicated similar yearly age-1 abundance estimates (Huggins: 163 in 2017 to 3839 in 2010; VGAM: 312 in 2020 to 4448 in 2010), but the VGAMs provided more direct interpretation for factors that might affect capture probability (e.g. sampling effort, temperature, fish length). This study indicates that the age-1 Altamaha River Atlantic sturgeon population has remained relatively stable over the past decade and provides a long-term baseline which will better enable managers to assess the effects of either future restoration actions or environmental disturbances on the population.

Georgia↗

USGS2020

Perceived constraints and negotiations to trout fishing in Georgia based on angler specialization level

Anglers face constraints that influence participation and dropout rates. Some recreational anglers may be able to negotiate constraints by altering the timing or frequency of participation, acquiring new skills, or modifying nonrecreational aspects such as family or work responsibilities. We consider data collected via a mail survey from Georgia-resident trout license holders to identify both perceived constraints and strategies used to negotiate them. To capture variation among anglers, survey responses were grouped by level of angler specialization using K -means cluster analysis, which resulted in a three-cluster solution of most, moderately, and least specialized anglers. Analyses of variance were used to detect potential differences among the three specialization clusters. Tests revealed that the least specialized anglers experienced constraints more intensely than the most or moderately specialized anglers. Likewise, least specialized anglers were less able to negotiate constraints when compared to the most or moderately specialized anglers. However, the least specialized anglers used negotiation strategies involving overcoming perceived lack of skill more intensely than their counterparts. The most intensely experienced constraints overall were lack of time due to work or family obligations and distance to Georgia’s trout waters from home. The most intensely used negotiation strategies overall were “learn to enjoy being outside and stress less about catching fish” and “encourage family or friends to go fishing with me.” This research benefits fishery managers by providing a method of identifying angling groups that perceive more constraints and are less likely to overcome these constraints through constraint negotiation strategies. With this information, managers may choose to tailor efforts towards reducing constraints for angling groups that have low participation and may drop out of the activity all together.

Georgia↗

USGS2020

Using video survey to examine the effect of habitat on gag grouper encounter

Gag is a reef fish that was declared overfished in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) in 2009. Although Gag are no longer listed as overfished, fisheries managers are concerned that stocks may not be recovering. Our objective was to identify habitat characteristics important to Gag, and their effect on the probability of Gag occurrence. We obtained data from three separate fisheries-independent video surveys that sampled in the eastern GOM from 2010-2017: the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA) Panama City, FL Office, the NOAA Southeast Area Monitoring and Assessment Program, and the Florida Fish and Wildlife Research Institute. We ran a separate mixed effects logistic regression for each survey, and used Akaike’s Information Criteria to determine the best fitting models. Some variables - percent rock coverage, vertical relief, latitude, and depth - were present in all confidence models. Depth did not have the same relationship with Gag across all surveys, suggesting that shallower habitats (<50 m) might be more suitable for juveniles, whereas deeper habitats (>50 m) might be more suitable for adults. Managers may be able to help Gag and encourage their recovery by using these data to establish or expand protected areas throughout shallower waters.

Florida↗

USGS2019

An importance–satisfaction analysis of trout license holders in Georgia

As anglers become increasingly diverse, fisheries managers are challenged to find ways to satisfy users with divergent preferences while conserving a limited resource on a limited budget. With this management challenge in mind, this study combines previous angler specialization research with an importance–satisfaction analysis (ISA) to aid fisheries managers in better understanding users with divergent preferences. An ISA involves asking stakeholders to simultaneously evaluate the importance of salient attributes of their fishing experience and their satisfaction with those attributes, which allows for graphical depiction of each attribute in one of four quadrants with managerial implications: Concentrate Here, Keep up the Good Work, Possible Overkill, and Low Priority. The data were collected via a mail-administered survey that was sent to 4,000 licensed trout anglers who were residents of Georgia. The anglers were asked to evaluate 10 catch and 7 noncatch attributes as well as answer questions that were used to measure levels of angler specialization. A K -means cluster analysis was used to segment the 469 respondents into three groups based on their specialization level. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to determine whether anglers’ preferences differed by level of specialization. The results revealed that specialization groups differed in the level of importance that they placed on 6 catch and 4 noncatch attributes and in their levels of satisfaction with 5 catch and 2 noncatch attributes. There were also differences among the groups in quadrant placement for both catch and noncatch attributes. The respondents agreed that habitat improvement initiatives, adding new fishable water, and clear signage of regulations were of relatively high importance, with habitat improvement initiatives as the only attribute to fall in the Concentrate Here quadrant for all three clusters. The average responses for importance and satisfaction were highest for the most specialized group and lowest for the least specialized group. Combining segmenting techniques, like cluster analysis with ISA, offers fisheries managers the opportunity to gauge different user groups’ perceptions of salient fishery attributes.

Georgia↗

USGS2019

Age truncation of alewife in Lake Michigan

Empirical evidence has shown increased variability in harvest and recruitment of exploited fish populations, which can result directly from exploitation or indirectly from interactions between external drivers and the internal dynamics of age-structured populations. We investigated whether predation in a freshwater system could affect a prey fish population, in the same way fishing affects targeted populations. Using fishery-independent trawl survey data and a suite of quantitative indicators, we evaluated changes in the alewife population in Lake Michigan. Our results provide evidence for a reduction in the mean spawner age, a reduction in the diversity of age classes and the distribution of biomass across them, and increased variability in the proportion of first time spawners in the spawning stock. We used wavelet analysis and estimates of lifetime egg production to demonstrate how the alewife population displays behaviors of instability as the overall biomass declines. Our results provide evidence that predation pressure can influence prey fish populations in a similar manner to fishing on harvested populations, and that conservation of a broad reproducing age structure is likely to be important for buffering against adverse environmental fluctuations and for sustainable management of fish populations.

Lake Michigan↗

USGS2019

Integrating management strategy evaluation into fisheries management: Advancing best practices for stakeholder inclusion based on an MSE for Northeast US Atlantic herring

The New England Fishery Management Council used management strategy evaluation (MSE) to evaluate possible harvest control rules for Atlantic herring ( Clupea harengus ), the first MSE in the US and perhaps globally to use open-invitation, public workshops for input. Stakeholder inclusion can increase both realism and likelihood of use by managers, but inclusivity is not achieved easily. Here, self-selected participants had diverse backgrounds and differing levels of interest and preparedness. We describe some challenges with directly engaging the public in MSE and offer broader insights for obtaining effective public participation during a decision-making process. Conducting an open MSE aligns well with publicly driven management but requires clear goals and communication. Investment in effective organizers, impartial facilitators, and knowledgeable analysts can improve communication and understanding of MSE to the betterment of fisheries management. We aim to further MSE best practices on integrating stakeholders and hope that our lessons learned on communication, engagement, and integration of MSE into an existing management arena will be useful to other practitioners.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

USGS2019

The dream and the reality: Meeting decision-making time frames while incorporating ecosystem and economic models into management strategy evaluation

Atlantic herring ( Clupea harengus ) in the Northwest Atlantic have been managed with interim harvest control rules (HCRs). A stakeholder-driven management strategy evaluation (MSE) was conducted that incorporated a broad range of objectives. The MSE process was completed within 1 year. Constant catch, conditional constant catch, and a biomass-based (BB) HCR with a 15% restriction on the interannual change in the quota could achieve more stable yields than BB HCRs without such restrictions, but could not attain as high of yields and resulted in more negative outcomes for terns ( Sterna hirundo ; a predator of herring). A similar range of performance could be achieved by applying a BB HCR annually every 3 years or every 5 years. Predators (i.e., dogfish ( Squalus acanthias ), bluefin tuna ( Thunnus thynnus ), and terns) were generally insensitive to the range of HCRs. While median net revenues were sensitive to some HCRs, time series analysis suggests that most HCRs produced a stable equilibrium of net revenue. To meet management needs, some aspects of the simulations were less than might be considered scientifically ideal, but using “models of intermediate complexity” were informative for managers and formed a foundation for future improvements.

Northwest Atlantic↗