Comment on “Assessing the potential for Smallmouth Bass population establishment in Grand Canyon”
No abstract available.
Arizona, Utah↗
Geology topics
Brian D. Healy
Publications and source records attributed to Brian D. Healy.
The effects of scientific uncertainty and values trade-offs on flow management decisions for an endangered fish
Consumptive use of freshwater is of concern in many estuarine ecosystems, and various frameworks have been used to prescribe environmental flows to benefit native species. However, few of these frameworks explicitly examine the potential trade-offs between socioeconomic and conservation-oriented values. This is exemplified in California, USA, where freshwater management has been an area of focus and controversy. Operations of numerous reservoirs and water diversion facilities distributed throughout the state, while critical for economic and public health benefits, have contributed to the decline of many native species. The endangered delta smelt ( Hypomesus transpacificus ) is endemic to the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, the heart of California's complex water conveyance system. To aid recovery of delta smelt, fall-timed freshwater pulse flows were implemented, which require water to be either released from reservoirs, or made unavailable to export for consumptive uses. Previous research has indicated that the effectiveness of the current pulse flow action could be improved by reconsidering the timing and magnitude; however, uncertainties in the predicted fish response to flow pulses may hinder decision-making about flow management. Using a water resource planning model, different iterations of an individual-based life cycle model, and decision analysis tools, we assessed the importance of sources of uncertainty to hypothetical flow management decisions, including uncertainty surrounding the predicted responses in delta smelt population growth rates, and variability of decision-maker's values. We found both the choice of which (if any) flow action to take for delta smelt, and the expected value of further research, depended on how decision-makers weight the delta smelt and water supply objectives. There was expected value of information (VOI) only if a decision-maker weighted the delta smelt objective ≥0.59, and within this range, research to improve estimates of changes in delta smelt prey items related to flow actions could be prioritized over other sources of uncertainty to improve outcomes of decision-making. Our study demonstrates how uncertainty, even if large, may not be equally relevant to different decision-makers (e.g., with different agency missions), and how VOI analysis can be used to guide management in an overallocated water system such as California.
California↗
Status report on the Long-Term Experimental and Management Plan (LTEMP) Metrics for the Glen Canyon Dam adaptive management program
No abstract available.
Arizona, Nevada↗
Rapid structured decision making for Hypomesus transpacificus (delta smelt) summer–fall freshwater outflow management
Managers of the Central Valley Project (CVP) and State Water Projects (SWP) in California are confronted with difficult tradeoffs between water uses and associated values affected by water management decisions. These decisions involve altering the timing and magnitude of water releases from dams and reservoirs, which can affect habitats for economically important and Federally and State-listed endangered fish species, water deliveries for agriculture or municipalities, and water quality. In this report, we describe the results of a rapid structured decision-making process used to assist management agencies in evaluating tradeoffs while gathering input from cooperating agencies, rightsholders, or interested parties (hereafter participants) through facilitated workshops in spring 2025. Consideration of alternative water management actions was initiated by the continued decline of Hypomesus transpacificus (delta smelt) populations and the issuance of a new biological opinion for the CVP and SWP long-term operations on the effects on delta smelt and other Endangered Species Act-listed species in November 2024. An Executive Order was also issued in January 2025, directing the Bureau of Reclamation to maximize water deliveries. Participants, led by the U.S. Geological Survey and cooperating agencies, identified 8 fundamental values (hereafter objectives) and 11 alternative water management scenarios (or “alternative management actions” based on the PrOACT model). Using multicriteria decision analysis, we evaluated performance (or “consequences” based on a consequence table analysis) and analyzed tradeoffs of alternative water management actions to the fundamental objectives. We ranked the alternative water management actions based on four participants’ objective weights and composite utility scores calculated using a linear value function. The three highest ranking alternative water management actions had the poorest performance for delta smelt but performed best for CVP and SWP water exports and objectives related to coldwater pool operations for salmonids. An optimum strategy that could prevent the extinction of delta smelt was not determined for this study. However, insights gained from our rapid decision analysis suggested nonflow scenarios could benefit the delta smelt population, including in drier years, and could be considered to avoid curtailment of water exports.
Open-File Report↗
Population growth of threatened Gulf Sturgeon may be limited by the frequency of adult episodic mortality events
Objective We identified spatial and temporal variation in population trends for Gulf Sturgeon Acipenser desotoi (previously known as Acipenser oxyrinchus desotoi ) across the species’ range to inform recovery strategies. We also assessed whether adult survival or recruitment more strongly influences population change. Methods We analyzed adult Gulf Sturgeon capture–recapture data from 1990 to 2022 across seven Gulf of Mexico river systems. Using temporal symmetry models and fixed estimates of adult survival from a companion study, we estimated seniority probability (γ i + 1 ), capture probability ( p ), recruitment ( f ), and population growth rate (λ) for adult fish. Models were compared using Akaike information criterion adjusted for small sample sizes, and parameter estimates were derived at both river-specific and rangewide scales. Results Adult survival (φ) was the primary driver of λ across the species’ range, with γ consistently >0.5 in most rivers and time periods. While rangewide λ suggested stable or slightly increasing adult populations, river-level trends varied. Recent declines in λ and f were observed in the Escambia, Apalachicola, and Suwannee rivers—systems affected by red tide, hurricanes, or oil exposure following the Deepwater Horizon spill. Capture probabilities remained low across rivers and time periods. Conclusions Long-term recovery of Gulf Sturgeon is likely more sensitive to adult survival than recruitment to the adult population. Population trajectories differ across rivers and may reflect both demographic changes and inconsistencies in monitoring. Restoring consistent, standardized adult monitoring in select rivers will improve the ability to detect meaningful trends and guide conservation efforts focused on minimizing adult mortality.
Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi↗
Mixed natal origins present management challenges for a non-native fish established throughout a modified river network
Expansion of non-native brown trout ( Salmo trutta ) in the Colorado River below Glen Canyon Dam motivated reevaluation of suppression strategies to minimize potential impacts to native fishes in the Grand Canyon, Arizona, USA. Brown trout are one of several non-native fish species of management concern in this river reach, and understanding their natal sources and movement patterns may assist managers in planning suppression strategies. We identified trace elements in brown trout otoliths, which, when coupled with location-specific water chemistry data, identified brown trout natal origins over 19 years. Strontium and manganese concentrations revealed distinct emigration patterns from natal tributary streams and the mainstem Colorado River over two periods. Adult brown trout collected from throughout our study area showed mixed tributary and mainstem natal origins, which persisted during suppression efforts in a known spawning tributary. Unexpectedly, we found evidence of brown trout reproduction in the Colorado River for at least a decade before documentation through field monitoring. Our findings may inform but complicate the development of management strategies for system-wide brown trout suppression.
Arizona↗
The value of information is context dependent: A demonstration of decision tools to address multispecies river temperature management under uncertainty
Trade-offs among objectives in natural resource management can be exacerbated in altered ecosystems and when there is uncertainty in predicted management outcomes. Multi-criteria decision analysis and value of information (VOI) are underutilized decision tools that can assist fisheries managers in handling trade-offs and evaluating the importance of uncertainty. We demonstrate the use of these tools using a case study in the Sacramento River, California, USA, where two imperiled species with different temperature requirements, winter-run Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha and Green Sturgeon Acipenser medirostris , spawn and rear in the artificially cold Shasta Dam tailwater. A temperature-control device installed on Shasta Dam maintains cool water for Chinook Salmon; however, uncertainties exist related to the effects of temperatures on the spawning and rearing of both species. We consider four alternative hypotheses in models of early life-stage dynamics to evaluate the effects of alternative temperature management strategies on Chinook Salmon and Green Sturgeon management objectives. We used VOI to quantify the increase in management performance that can be expected by resolving hypothesis-based uncertainties as a function of the weight assigned to species-specific objectives. We found the decision was hindered by uncertainty; the best performing alternative depends on which hypothesis is true, with warmer or cooler alternative management strategies recommended when weights favor Green Sturgeon or Chinook Salmon objectives, respectively. The value of reducing uncertainty was highest when Green Sturgeon was slightly favored, highlighting the interaction between scientific uncertainty and decision makers' values. Our demonstration features multi-criteria decision analysis and VOI as transparent, deliberative tools that can assist fisheries managers in confronting value conflicts, prioritizing resolution of uncertainty, and optimally managing aquatic ecosystems.
Fisheries↗
Translocation in a fragmented river provides demographic benefits for imperiled fishes
Fragmentation isolates individuals and restricts access to valuable habitat with severe consequences for populations, such as reduced gene flow, disruption of recolonization dynamics, reduced resiliency to disturbance, and changes in aquatic community structure. Translocations to mitigate the effects of fragmentation and habitat loss are common, but few are rigorously evaluated, particularly for fishes. Over six years, we translocated 1215 individuals of four species of imperiled fish isolated below a barrier on the San Juan River, Utah, USA, that restricts access to upstream habitat. We used re-encounter data (both passive integrated transponder tag and telemetry detections and physical recaptures) collected between 2016 and 2023, to inform a spatially explicit multistate mark–recapture model that estimated survival and transition probabilities of translocated and non-translocated individuals, both below and above the barrier. Individuals of all four species moved large (>200 km) distances upstream following translocation, with the maximum upstream encounter distance varying by species. Results from the multistate mark–recapture model suggested translocated fish survived at a higher rate compared with non-translocated fish below the barrier for three of the four species. Above the barrier, translocated individuals survived at similar rates as non-translocated fish for bluehead sucker ( Catostomus discobolus ) and flannelmouth sucker ( Catostomus latipinnis ), while survival rates of translocated endangered Colorado pikeminnow ( Ptychocheilus lucius ; mean, 95% CI: 0.75, 0.55–0.88) and endangered razorback sucker ( Xyrauchen texanus ; 0.86, 0.75–0.92) were higher relative to non-translocated individuals (Colorado pikeminnow: 0.52, 0.51–0.54; razorback sucker: 0.75, 0.74–0.75). Transition probabilities from above the barrier to below the barrier were generally low for three of the four species (all upper 95% CI ≤ 0.23), but they were substantially higher for razorback sucker. Our results suggest translocation to mitigate fragmentation and habitat loss can have demographic benefits for large-river fish species by allowing movements necessary to complete their life history in heterogeneous riverscapes. Further, given the costs or delays in providing engineered fish passage structures or in achieving dam removal, we suggest translocations may provide an alternative conservation strategy in fragmented river systems.
Colorado, New Mexico, Utah↗
Quantifying the contributions of tributaries to large-river fish populations through mark-recapture modeling
Tributaries may play a vital role in maintaining populations of large river fishes, although the specific contributions of tributaries toward recruitment of river-wide populations are not often understood. Tributaries may experience fewer cumulative anthropogenic impacts relative to mainstem rivers and may offer more natural conditions supportive of native fish populations, which may provide opportunities for fish population restoration. Thus, an improved understanding of tributary-mainstem population dynamics may inform targeted conservation actions for spatially structured populations of large-river fishes. Colorado River tributaries in the Grand Canyon, Arizona, USA are a focus of imperiled Humpback Chub Gila cypha conservation, which includes translocations to enhance population redundancy and to expand the overall population. However, the fate of fish dispersed to the mainstem has not been thoroughly quantified. Using open population mark-recapture models, we quantified the relative contribution of three groups of Humpback Chub, including fish of confirmed tributary origin that were either translocated or produced in situ , and others presumed to be Colorado River mainstem origin fish, to three mainstem populations. Our specific study objectives were to 1) estimate Colorado River abundances of tributary and mainstem-origin fish over time, 2) compare relative group-specific contributions to three mainstem populations, and 3) compare group-specific survival rates of Humpback Chub in the Colorado River and in a tributary where a recent translocation has occurred. Tributaries contributed 26% and 43% of the overall abundance in two tributary inflow reach populations, and zero in a third, which we attributed to uncharacteristically low tributary survival immediately following translocation. In the mainstem, survival of tributary-origin fish was higher compared to mainstem-origin fish, suggesting an advantage of tributary residence. Our contrasting results from three different tributary inflow populations highlight the potential role for tributaries in sustaining large-river fish populations, which may have important implications for long-term maintenance of river metapopulations.
North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗
Migration timing and tributary use of spawning flannelmouth sucker (Catostomus latipinnis)
Spawning phenology and associated migrations of fishes are often regulated by factors such as temperature and stream discharge, but flow regulation of mainstem rivers coupled with climate change might disrupt these cues and affect fitness. Flannelmouth sucker (Catostomus latipinnis) persisting in heavily modified river networks are known to spawn in tributaries that might provide better spawning habitat than neighboring mainstem rivers subject to habitat degradation (e.g., embedded sediments, altered thermal regimes, and disconnected floodplains). Passive integrative transponder (PIT) tag data and radio telemetry were used to quantify the timing and duration of flannelmouth sucker tributary spawning migrations in relation to environmental cues in McElmo Creek, a tributary to the San Juan River in the American Southwest. We also tested the extent of the tributary migration and assessed mainstem movements prior to and following tributary migrations. Additionally, multi-year datasets of PIT detections from other tributaries in the Colorado River basin were used to quantify interannual and cross-site variation in the timing of flannelmouth sucker spawning migrations in relation to environmental cues. The arrival and residence times of fish spawning in McElmo Creek varied among years with earlier migration and a three-week increase in residence time in relatively wet years compared to drier years. Classification tree analysis suggested a combination of discharge and temperature determined arrival timing. Of fish PIT tagged in the fall, 56% tagged within 10 km of McElmo Creek spawned in the tributary the following spring, as did 60% of radio-tagged fish, with a decline in its use corresponding to increased distance of tagging location. A broader analysis of four tributaries in the Colorado River basin, including McElmo Creek, found photoperiod and temperature of tributary and mainstem rivers were the most important variables in determining migration timing, but tributary and mainstem discharge also aided in classification success. The largest tributary, the Little Colorado River, had more residential fish or fish that stayed for longer periods (median = 30 days), while McElmo Creek fish stayed an average of just 10 days in 2022. Our results generally suggest that higher discharge, across years or across sites, results in extended use of tributaries by flannelmouth suckers. Conservation actions that limit water extraction and maintain natural flow regimes in tributaries, while maintaining open connection with mainstem rivers may benefit migratory species including flannelmouth suckers.
Journal of Fish Biology↗
Diverse portfolios: Investing in tributaries for restoration of large river fishes in the Anthropocene
Rehabilitation of large Anthropocene rivers requires engagement of diverse stakeholders across a broad range of sociopolitical boundaries. Competing objectives often constrain options for ecological restoration of large rivers whereas fewer competing objectives may exist in a subset of tributaries. Further, tributaries contribute toward building a “portfolio” of river ecosystem assets through physical and biological processes that may present opportunities to enhance the resilience of large river fishes. Our goal is to review roles of tributaries in enhancing mainstem large river fish populations. We present case histories from two greatly altered and distinct large-river tributary systems that highlight how tributaries contribute four portfolio assets to support large-river fish populations: 1) habitat diversity, 2) connectivity, 3) ecological asynchrony, and 4) density-dependent processes. Finally, we identify future research directions to advance our understanding of tributary roles and inform conservation actions. In the Missouri River United States, we focus on conservation efforts for the state endangered lake sturgeon, which inhabits large rivers and tributaries in the Midwest and Eastern United States. In the Colorado River, Grand Canyon United States, we focus on conservation efforts for recovery of the federally threatened humpback chub. In the Missouri River, habitat diversity focused on physical habitats such as substrate for reproduction, and deep-water habitats for refuge, whereas augmenting habitat diversity for Colorado River fishes focused on managing populations in tributaries with minimally impaired thermal and flow regimes. Connectivity enhancements in the Missouri River focused on increasing habitat accessibility that may require removal of physical structures like low-head dams; whereas in the Colorado River, the lack of connectivity may benefit native fishes as the disconnection provides refuge from non-native fish predation. Hydrologic variability among tributaries was present in both systems, likely underscoring ecological asynchrony. These case studies also described density dependent processes that could influence success of restoration actions. Although actions to restore populations varied by river system, these examples show that these four portfolio assets can help guide restoration activities across a diverse range of mainstem rivers and their tributaries. Using these assets as a guide, we suggest these can be transferable to other large river-tributary systems.
Frontiers in Environmental Science↗
Impeding access to tributary spawning habitat and releasing experimental fall-timed floods increases brown trout immigration into a dam's tailwater
River ecosystems have been altered by flow regulation and species introductions. Regulated flow regimes often include releases designed to benefit certain species or restore ecosystem processes, and invasive species suppression programs may include efforts to restrict access to spawning habitat. The impacts of these management interventions are often uncertain. Here, we assess hypotheses regarding introduced brown trout (Salmo trutta) movement in a regulated river. We model mark-recapture data in a multistate framework to assess whether movement was affected by the operation of a tributary weir (restricting access to spawning habitat), experimental releases of fall-timed High Flow Experiments (Fall HFEs), or simply increased during the fall, spawning season. Our results suggest that the presence of the weir led to reduced tributary homing and the release of Fall HFEs stimulated upstream movement and straying. Both effects are of a similar magnitude, however the fall HFE effect is more certain. Our results suggest the expansion of an invasive species was stimulated by management interventions, and demonstrate the potential for unanticipated outcomes of restoration in highly altered river ecosystems.
Arizona, Utah↗
Exploring metapopulation-scale suppression alternatives for a global invader in a river network experiencing climate change
Invasive species can dramatically alter ecosystems, but eradication is difficult, and suppression is expensive once they are established. Uncertainties in the potential for expansion and impacts by an invader can lead to delayed and inadequate suppression, allowing for establishment. Metapopulation viability models can aid in planning strategies to improve responses to invaders and lessen invasive species’ impacts, which may be particularly important under climate change. We used a spatially explicit metapopulation viability model to explore suppression strategies for ecologically damaging invasive brown trout ( Salmo trutta ), established in the Colorado River and a tributary in Grand Canyon National Park. Our goals were to estimate the effectiveness of strategies targeting different life stages and subpopulations within a metapopulation; quantify the effectiveness of a rapid response to a new invasion relative to delaying action until establishment; and estimate whether future hydrology and temperature regimes related to climate change and reservoir management affect metapopulation viability and alter the optimal management response. Our models included scenarios targeting different life stages with spatially varying intensities of electrofishing, redd destruction, incentivized angler harvest, piscicides, and a weir. Quasi-extinction (QE) was obtainable only with metapopulation-wide suppression targeting multiple life stages. Brown trout population growth rates were most sensitive to changes in age 0 and large adult mortality. The duration of suppression needed to reach QE for a large established subpopulation was 12 years compared with 4 with a rapid response to a new invasion. Isolated subpopulations were vulnerable to suppression; however, connected tributary subpopulations enhanced metapopulation persistence by serving as climate refuges. Water shortages driving changes in reservoir storage and subsequent warming would cause brown trout declines, but metapopulation QE was achieved only through refocusing and increasing suppression. Our modeling approach improves understanding of invasive brown trout metapopulation dynamics, which could lead to more focused and effective invasive species suppression strategies and, ultimately, maintenance of populations of endemic fishes.
Arizona↗
Translocation of Humpback Chub into tributary streams of the Colorado River: Implications for conservation of large-river fishes
The Humpback Chub Gila cypha , a large-bodied, endangered cyprinid endemic to the Colorado River basin, is in decline throughout most of its range due largely to anthropogenic factors. Translocation of Humpback Chub into tributaries of the Colorado River is one conservation activity that may contribute to the expansion of the species’ current range and eventually provide population redundancy. We evaluated growth, survival, and dispersal following translocation of approximately 900 Humpback Chub over a period of 3 years (2009, 2010, and 2011) into Shinumo Creek, a tributary stream of the Colorado River within Grand Canyon National Park. Growth and condition of Humpback Chub in Shinumo Creek were consistent among year-classes and equaled or surpassed growth estimates from both the main-stem Colorado River and the Little Colorado River, where the largest (and most stable) Humpback Chub aggregation remains. Based on passive integrated tag recoveries, 53% ( = 483/902) of translocated Humpback Chub dispersed from Shinumo Creek into the main-stem Colorado River as of January 2013, 35% leaving within 25 d following translocation. Annual apparent survival estimates within Shinumo Creek ranged from 0.22 to 0.41, but were strongly influenced by emigration. Results indicate that Shinumo Creek provides favorable conditions for growth and survival of translocated Humpback Chub and could support a new population if reproduction and recruitment occur in the future. Adaptation of translocation strategies of Humpback Chub into tributary streams ultimately may refine the role translocation plays in recovery of the species.
Arizona↗
Macroinvertebrate-based assessment of biological condition at selected sites in the Eagle River watershed, Colorado, 2000-07
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Colorado River Water Conservation District, Eagle County, Eagle River Water and Sanitation District, Upper Eagle Regional Water Authority, Colorado Department of Transportation, City of Aurora, Town of Eagle, Town of Gypsum, Town of Minturn, Town of Vail, Vail Resorts, Colorado Springs Utilities, Denver Water, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service (FS), compiled macroinvertebrate (73 sites, 124 samples) data previously collected in the Eagle River watershed from selected USGS and FS studies, 2000-07. These data were analyzed to assess the biological condition (that is, biologically ?degraded? or ?good?) at selected sites in the Eagle River watershed and determine if site class (for example, urban or undeveloped) described biological condition. An independently developed predictive model was applied to calculate a site-specific measure of taxonomic completeness for macroinvertebrate communities, where taxonomic completeness was expressed as the ratio of observed (O) taxa to those expected (E) to occur at each site. Macroinvertebrate communities were considered degraded at sites were O/E values were less than 0.80, indicating that at least 20 percent of expected taxa were not observed. Sites were classified into one of four classes (undeveloped, adjacent road or highway or both, mixed, urban) using a combination of riparian land-cover characteristics, examination of topographic maps and aerial imagery, screening for exceedances in water-quality standards, and best professional judgment. Analysis of variance was used to determine if site class accounted for variability in mean macroinvertebrate O/E values. Finally, macroinvertebrate taxa observed more or less frequently than expected at urban sites were indentified. This study represents the first standardized assessment of biological condition of selected sites distributed across the Eagle River watershed. Of the 73 sites evaluated, just over half (55 percent) were considered in good biological condition (O/E greater than 0.80). The remaining sites were either consistently biologically degraded (30 percent; O/E less than 0.80) or varied annually between good and degraded condition (15 percent; O/E is less than or greater than 0.80). Sites primarily affected by urbanization were among the most severely degraded (lowest O/E values) when compared to other site classes. Although most urban sites were among the most severely degraded (lowest O/E values), a few sites had nearly intact macroinvertebrate communities (O/E near 1.0). Similar observations were noted among sites classified as mixed. Thirteen macroinvertebrate taxa were indentified that occurred more or less frequently than expected at urban sites. Additionally, six other taxa were impartial (tolerant) to the same conditions. Combined, these 19 taxa provide an opportunity to enhance the interpretation of future studies in the Eagle River watershed, but will require better insight into the responses of these taxa to specific stressors. Understanding the sources of variability affecting biological condition along with why some sites expected to be degraded, but showed otherwise, will have clear implications for mitigation efforts. Integrating results of this study with field and laboratory investigations will greatly enhance the ability to identify causal factors affecting biological condition at degraded sites, the logical next step. Information generated from such integrative studies will be imperative for well targeted mitigation efforts in the Eagle River watershed.
Scientific Investigations Report↗