Geology topics

Bradley J. Butterfield

Publications and source records attributed to Bradley J. Butterfield.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

USGS2022

Protocol for installing and monitoring a RestoreNet restoration field trial network site

RestoreNet is an ecological restoration experiment that is networked across multiple sites, spanning dryland ecosystems in the southwestern United States. The experiment is organized and led by the U.S. Geological Survey’s Restoration Assessment and Monitoring Program for the Southwest (RAMPS). This protocol functions to provide guidance to additional partners on how to set up a RestoreNet site and expand the network to new locations. This protocol contains information for site selection, materials acquisition, experiment installation, data collection and monitoring, and data curation. Information includes protocols for the RestoreNet seeded experiment and an additional optional experiment using installed container seedlings initially propagated in a greenhouse. Participation in RestoreNet contributes to a growing body of knowledge on cutting edge ecological restoration methods for use in the southwestern United States to benefit land managers, landowners, and restoration practitioners.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,↗

USGS2021

Directional selection shifts trait distributions of planted species in dryland restoration

The match between species trait values and local abiotic filters can restrict community membership. An often-implicit assumption of this relationship is that abiotic filters select for a single locally optimal strategy, though difficulty in isolating effects of the abiotic environment from those of dispersal limitation and biotic interactions has resulted in few empirical tests of this assumption. Similar constraints have made it difficult to assess whether the type and intensity of abiotic filters shift along gradients of environmental harshness, as predicted by the stress-dominance hypothesis. We planted 9,216 plants of 29 perennial grass and forb species that had a range of functional trait values and were assigned to a warm, intermediate or cool temperature tolerance pool across eight sites on the Colorado Plateau. We compared the distributions of traits of surviving individuals to null distributions to evaluate whether there were shifts in trait means and variation. Borrowing from phenotypic selection concepts in evolutionary biology, we assessed support for stabilizing, directional and disruptive abiotic filtering of trait distributions and whether these types of filtering varied with initial species pool. Functional composition was significantly different from null distributions for nearly all traits at all sites, with trait variation more restricted in harsher abiotic conditions, supporting the stress-dominance hypothesis. Contrary to expectations, we primarily found evidence for directional selection, which increased in frequency in warm species pools while disruptive selection was found more often in cool and intermediate species pools. Synthesis . This study provides a controlled experimental approach to test the effect of the abiotic environment on plant trait filtering. We found that opportunistic strategies allowing for rapid water acquisition during favourable periods improved survival at warmer sites. Species with these strategies may be expected to benefit from increasing aridity and may be selected for active management efforts. More generally, the prevalence of directional selection may have important implications for dynamic vegetation models that rely on trait distributions for translating environmental variation into ecosystem processes.

Journal of Ecology↗

USGS2021

Does restoration of plant diversity trigger concomitant soil microbiome changes in dryland ecosystems?

Drylands are highly vulnerable to land degradation, and despite increasing efforts, restoration success remains low. Although often ignored in the design and deployment of management strategies, soil microbial communities might be critical for dryland restoration due to their central role in promoting soil stability, nutrient cycling and plant establishment. We collected soil samples from eight dryland restoration sites within RestoreNet, a restoration field trial network, and determined their soil microbiome using 16S rRNA (bacteria and archaea) and ITS (fungi) amplicon sequencing. Each previously degraded site was treated with monoculture (single species) and polyculture (multiple species) seedling plantings. Contrary to our initial expectations, we found that these different revegetation interventions did not trigger changes in microbial diversity, composition or relative abundance of functional groups across sites after 1 year of revegetation. Synthesis and applications . Considering the crucial role of soil micro-organisms in dryland ecosystem functions, our results suggest that site-specific targeted microbiome restoration should be considered to accelerate the establishment of desired microbial communities. Plant community-based restoration practices such as revegetation have a limited impact on soil micro-organisms in the short term.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2021

Hydrologic and geomorphic effects on riparian plant species occurrence and encroachment: Remote sensing of 360 km of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon

A common impact on riparian ecosystem function following river regulation is the expansion and encroachment of riparian plant species in the active river channels and floodplain, which reduces flow of water and suspended sediment between the river, riparian area, and upland ecosystems. We characterized riparian plant species occurrence and quantified encroachment within the dam-regulated Colorado River in Grand Canyon, Arizona, USA. We mapped 10 riparian species with high-resolution multispectral imagery and examined effects of river hydrology and geomorphology on the spatial distribution of plant species and open sand. Analysis spanned an image time-series from 2002-2009-2013; a period when plant species and sand were spatially dynamic, and operations of Glen Canyon Dam included daily hydro-peaking and small episodic controlled flood releases. Plant species occurrence and encroachment rates varied with hydrology, geomorphology, and local species pool. Encroachment was greatest on surfaces frequently inundated by hydro-peaking. Seep willow ( Baccharis spp .), tamarisk ( Tamarix spp .) and arrowweed ( Pluchea sericea ) were the primary encroaching woody species. Common reed ( Phragmites australis ) and horsetail ( Equisetum xferrissii ) were the primary encroaching herbaceous species. Encroachment composition from 2002 to 2009 was similar to the entire riparian landscape, whereas encroachment from 2009 to 2013 primarily consisted of seep willow and early-colonizing herbaceous species. Emergence of seep willow and arrowweed after burial by sand deposited by controlled floods indicated that those species were resilient to this form of disturbance. Describing patterns of species encroachment is an important step towards designing flow regimes that favor riparian species and ecosystem functions valued by stakeholders.

Arizona↗

USGS2021

Ontogenetic trait shifts: Seedlings display high trait variability during early stages of development

Characterizing variation in plant functional traits is often key to understanding community-level processes and predicting ecosystem responses to environmental change. Trait-based ecology has focused on interspecific trait variation, but sources and consequences of within-species ontogenetic trait variation, particularly during early stages of development, remain understudied. Using a manipulative greenhouse experiment, we investigated trait variation during early stages of seedling development in seven dominant perennial plant species in the western United States. We examined variability in key trait values (i.e. SLA, root:shoot ratio (RSR), specific root length (SRL) and root dry matter content (RDMC)) of 20- to 62-day-old seedlings grown under low and high levels of water availability. We also compared these to compiled trait databases to assess how representative these readily available data sources are of seedling trait values. Early seedling trait values shifted greatly during early stages of development and generally differed from average plant trait database values. Trait shifts were greatest in forbs versus grasses. Overall, observed trait shifts suggested a transition from fast-growing resource acquisitional strategies towards more slow-growing conservative strategies over time. For example, seedling SLA decreased while RSR and RDMC increased over time. That seedling trait values aconsistently differed from trait database values indicates that plant trait database values may be poor predictors of seedling trait values. Such mismatches in species trait information could result in inaccurate predictions of community assembly outcomes or incongruities between seedling traits and environmental filters experienced by seedlings during early stages of recruitment in applied settings. We suggest that additional work is needed to characterize intraspecific trait variation across plant ontogeny, and that this information should be incorporated into studies ranging from understanding early plant growth and survival to evaluating the outcomes of ecological restoration.

Functional Ecology↗

USGS2021

Riverine complexity and life history inform restoration in riparian environments in the southwestern U.S.

Riparian habitat in the southwestern USA has undergone substantial degradation over the past century, prompting extensive management and restoration of these critical ecosystems. Most restoration efforts, however, do not account for life history traits or riverine complexity that may influence genetic diversity and structure. Here, we use simple sequence repeat (SSR) markers in four southwestern riparian species ( Populus fremontii, Salix gooddingii, S. exigua, and Prosopis glandulosa ) that occupy a geographically complex region to address four questions: 1) How is river connectivity related to genetic diversity and structure? 2) How do mating systems and dispersal mechanisms influence gene flow? 3) Is genetic diversity influenced by unidirectional water flow? 4) How do unregulated tributary and regulated river flows affect clonality and associated diversity? Our results identify five findings: 1) Patterns of genetic diversity and structure vary substantially across different species; 2) species with geographic distributions that include a large, perennial river exhibit the least genetic structure; 3) mating system, clonality, and seed dispersal are related to genetic structure; 4) genetic diversity is variable among species and populations, but does not increase or decrease unidirectionally; and 5) clonality and associated diversity does not differ along a regulated river relative to unregulated tributaries. Our multispecies approach to understanding how riverine complexity and life history traits influence genetic diversity and structure could be incorporated into management efforts to more closely match riparian species with their unique environments, thereby facilitating restoration success.

Arizona↗

USGS2021

Future regulated flows of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon foretell decreased areal extent of sediment and increases in riparian vegetation

Sediment transfer, or connectivity, by aeolian processes between channel-proximal and upland deposits in river valleys is important for the maintenance of river corridor biophysical characteristics. In regulated river systems, dams control the magnitude and duration of discharge. Alterations to the flow regime driven by dams that increase the inundation duration of sediment, or which drive the encroachment of vegetation into areas formerly composed of labile sediment and result in channel narrowing, may reduce sediment transfer from near-channel deposits to uplands via aeolian processes. Employing spatial methods developed by Kasprak et al (2018 Prog. Phys. Geogr. ), here we use data describing the areal extent of bare (i.e. subaerially exposed and non-vegetated) sediment along 168 km of the Colorado River downstream from Glen Canyon Dam in Grand Canyon, USA, in conjunction with inundation extent modeling to forecast how future flows of this highly regulated river will drive changes in the areal extent of sediment available for aeolian transport. We also compare modern bare sediment area to that which presumably would have existed under pre-dam hydrographs. Over the next two decades, the planned flow regime from Glen Canyon Dam will result in slight decreases in bare sediment area (−1%) on an annual scale. This is in contrast to pre-dam years, when unregulated low flows led to marked increases in bare sediment area as compared to the current discharge regime. Our findings also indicate that ~75% of bare sediment in the study reach is inundated continuously at present, owing to increased baseflows in the post-dam flow regime; consequently, any reductions in flows below modern-day low discharges have the potential to expose large areas of bare sediment. We use vegetation modeling to quantify areas susceptible to vegetation encroachment under future flows, finding that 80% of bare sediment area is suitable for colonization by invasive tamarisk under the current flow regime. Our findings imply that the Colorado River in Grand Canyon, a system marked by widespread erosion of sediment resources and encroachment of riparian vegetation in the post-dam period, is likely to continue to see decreasing bare sediment extent over the coming decades in the absence of direct intervention through flow regime modification or widespread vegetation removal.

Arizona↗

USGS2020

Regional coordination between riparian dependence and atmospheric demand in willows (Salix L.) of western North America

Aim Plants vary in their hydrological and climatic niches. How these niche dimensions covary among closely related species can help identify co‐adaptations to hydrological and climatic factors, as well as predict biodiversity responses to environmental change. Location Western United States. Methods Relationships between riparian dependence and climate niches of willows ( Salix L.) were assessed, incorporating phylogenetics and functional traits to understand the adaptive nature of those relationships. The riparian dependence niche was estimated as the mean distance between georeferenced occurrence records and the nearest stream based on the National Hydrography Database. Results were compared to oaks ( Quercus L.), a less riparian‐dependent clade, with the expectation of different niche relationships. Results Willows generally occurred closer to streams than expected by chance, but riparian dependence varied substantially among species. Riparian dependence was positively correlated with mean annual temperature and diurnal temperature range niche, both indicators of atmospheric demand on evapotranspiration. Phylogenetic independent contrast correlations for these relationships were significant as well, and the high degree of niche convergence among species indicated evolutionarily labile co‐adaptations to riparian dependence and atmospheric demand. Plant height increased with mean annual temperature niche, and specific leaf area increased with residual variation in height, indicating underlying morphological correlates of niche variation. Oaks, on the other hand, exhibited no relationship between atmospheric demand and riparian dependence, and weaker niche relationships with riparian dependence overall. Main conclusions These results support the assertion that hydric‐adapted, woody riparian plants compensate for increased atmospheric demand on transpiration with a reliable supply of water provided by riparian habitats and that this trade‐off may be unique from mesic–xeric woody plants. Conservation of warm‐adapted riparian trees and shrubs under increasing temperatures and atmospheric demand may necessitate reversal of groundwater depletion. Cool‐adapted species may be best conserved through maintenance or expansion of riparian buffers as they become more riparian obligate with warming.

Diversity and Distributions↗

USGS2020

RestoreNet: An emerging restoration network reveals controls on seeding success across dryland ecosystems

Drylands are Earth's largest terrestrial biome and support one‐third of the global population. However, they are also highly vulnerable to land degradation. Despite widespread demand for dryland restoration and rehabilitation, little information is available to help land managers effectively re‐establish native perennial vegetation across drylands. RestoreNet is an emerging dryland restoration network that systematically tests revegetation techniques across environmental gradients. Using the RestoreNet experimental framework, we tested the effectiveness of restoration treatments (i.e. ConMod nurse plant structures, mulch, pits) that increase soil moisture and seed mixes with different climatic niches to achieve revegetation goals. Across sites, seedling recruitment was consistently influenced by treatment and seed mix type. Pit and mulch treatments increased total seedling density, with pits promoting the highest seeded species recruitment while limiting non‐native species establishment. Seeding increased total seedling density regardless of seed mix type, but cooler‐adapted seed mixes promoted greater seeded species density and resulted in lower density of unseeded (non‐native) species relative to warmer‐adapted mixes. Seedling recruitment was also controlled by the temporal and environmental context of restoration with the positive effect of high precipitation greatest in the weeks immediately following seeding. Above‐average precipitation during the study period across most of the sites may partially explain why the highest seeded species recruitment occurred in pit treatments and seed mixes with cooler, wetter niche requirements. Synthesis and applications . Results from the dryland restoration network, RestoreNet help to better understand variation in seeding and restoration treatment success across space and time in drylands. Relationships between restoration practices and environmental conditions in our study suggest the importance of anticipatory restoration strategies that forecast seasonal and sub‐seasonal weather conditions and select plant species with climate niche requirements appropriate for current and future climate conditions. This information is critical to land managers tasked with improving ecosystem conditions across degraded dryland regions.

Arizona↗

USGS2020

The right trait in the right place at the right time: Matching traits to environment improves restoration outcomes

(Munson) The challenges of restoration in dryland ecosystems are growing due to a rise in anthropogenic disturbance and increasing aridity. Plant functional traits are often used to predict plant performance and can offer a window into the potential outcomes of restoration efforts across environmental gradients. We tracked 15 years of seeding outcomes across 150 sites on the Colorado Plateau, a cold desert ecoregion in the western United States, and analyzed the independent and interactive effects of functional traits (seed mass, height, and specific leaf area) and local biologically relevant climate variables on seeding success. We predicted that the best models would include an interaction between plant traits and climate, indicating a need to match the right trait value to the right climate conditions in order to maximize seeding success. Indeed, we found that both plant height and seed size significantly interacted with temperature seasonality, with larger seeds and taller plants performing better in more seasonal environments. We also determined that these trait-environment patterns are not driven by the use of native vs. non-native species. Our results lend insight to using plant traits to inform the selection of seed mixes for restoring areas with specific climatic conditions, while also demonstrating the strong influence of temperature seasonality on seeding success in the Colorado Plateau region.

Colorado Plateau↗

USGS2020

Associations between riparian plant morphological guilds and fluvial sediment dynamics along the regulated Colorado River in Grand Canyon

Effects of riparian vegetation on fluvial sediment dynamics depend on morphological traits of the constituent species. Determining the effects of different morphological guilds on sedimentation rates, as influenced by multiple aspects of dam operations, can help identify viable strategies for streamflow and vegetation management to achieve riparian resource goals. Plants of increasing size and branching density or complexity have been found to have greater effects on sedimentation in free‐flowing systems; however, this relationship could differ in regulated rivers. We tested the hypothesis that plant guilds of increasing height and branching complexity would be positively associated with sedimentation rates on 23 sandbars deposited in zones of recirculating flow (eddies) along the Colorado River in Grand Canyon. We used an image‐based vegetation classification and digital elevation models from annual topographic surveys to track associations between six plant morphological guilds and topographic change over 5 years. Vegetation had significant associations with deposition after accounting for geomorphic setting, but the ordinal guild scale was not positively correlated with deposition magnitude. Instead, low‐statured rhizomatous and herbaceous guilds were particularly effective at capturing sediment in the separation zone of sandbars, whereas tall herbs and large shrubs were most effective at capturing sediment in reattachment zones. These nuanced interactions between geomorphic position and morphological guild may be a direct consequence of flow regulation through modifications to physical deposition and erosion processes. Flow regulation may also select for a narrow subset of morphological guilds, reducing the diversity of vegetation feedbacks on sedimentation and emphasizing geomorphic drivers.

Arizona↗

USGS2020

Gaps and hotspots in the state of knowledge of pinyon-juniper communities

Pinyon-juniper (PJ) plant communities cover a large area across North America and provide critical habitat for wildlife, biodiversity and ecosystem functions, and rich cultural resources. These communities occur across a variety of environmental gradients, disturbance regimes, structural conditions and species compositions, including three species of juniper and two species of pinyon. PJ communities have experienced substantial changes in recent decades and identifying appropriate management strategies for these diverse communities is a growing challenge. Here, we surveyed the literature and compiled 441 studies to characterize patterns in research on PJ communities through time, across geographic space and climatic conditions, and among focal species. We evaluate the state of knowledge for three focal topics: 1) historical stand dynamics and responses to disturbance, 2) land management actions and their effects, and 3) potential future responses to changing climate. We identified large and potentially important gaps in our understanding of pinyon-juniper communities both geographically and topically. The effect of drought on Pinus edulis, the pinyon pine species in eastern PJ communities was frequently addressed, while few studies focused on drought effects on Pinus monophylla , which occurs in western PJ communities. The largest proportion of studies that examined land management actions only measured their effects for one year. Grazing was a common land-use across the geographic range of PJ communities yet was rarely studied. We found only 39 studies that had information on the impacts of anthropogenic climate change and most were concentrated on Pinus edulis . These results provide a synthetic perspective on PJ communities that can help natural resource managers identify relevant knowledge needed for decision-making and researchers design new studies to fill important knowledge gaps.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,↗

USGS2019

Long‐term plant community trajectories suggest divergent responses of native and non‐native perennials and annuals to vegetation removal and seeding treatments

Land managers frequently apply vegetation removal and seeding treatments to restore ecosystem function following woody plant encroachment, invasive species spread, and wildfire. However, the long‐term outcome of these treatments is unclear due to a lack of widespread monitoring. We quantified how vegetation removal (via wildfire or management) with or without seeding and environmental conditions related to plant community composition change over time in 491 sites across the intermountain western United States. Most community metrics took over 10 years to reach baseline conditions posttreatment, with the slowest recovery observed for native perennial cover. Total cover was initially higher in sites with seeding after vegetation removal than sites with vegetation removal alone, but increased faster in sites with vegetation removal only. Seeding after vegetation removal was associated with rapidly increasing non‐native perennial cover and decreasing non‐native annual cover. Native perennial cover increased in vegetation removal sites irrespective of seeding and was suppressed by increasing non‐native perennial cover. Seeding was associated with higher non‐native richness across the monitoring period as well as initially higher, then declining, total and native species richness. Several cover and richness recovery metrics were positively associated with mean annual precipitation and negatively associated with mean annual temperature, whereas relationships with weather extremes depended on the lag time and season. Our results suggest that key plant groups, such as native perennials and non‐native annuals, respond to restoration treatments at divergent timescales and with different sensitivities to climate and weather variation.

Utah↗

USGS2019

Influence of climate, post‐treatment weather extremes, and soil factors on vegetation recovery after restoration treatments in the southwestern US

Aims Understanding the conditions associated with dryland vegetation recovery after restoration treatments is challenging due to a lack of monitoring data and high environmental variability over time and space. Tracking recovery trajectories with satellite‐based vegetation indices can strengthen predictions of restoration outcomes across broad areas with varying environmental conditions. Location Southwestern United States. Methods We quantified the recovery trajectories of spring and summer soil‐adjusted total vegetation index (SATVI) for 5 to 10 year periods following post‐wildfire seeding or prescribed burns for 241 treatment sites, and related SATVI to ground‐based vegetation cover. We modeled SATVI based on time since treatment, yearly temperature and precipitation, weather extremes following treatment, soil available water capacity, invasive species presence, and treatment type. We also tested for the effects of environmental variables on trajectories, by examining interactions with years post‐treatment. Results Ground‐based vegetation cover and SATVI were highly correlated. Most treatment sites had positive recovery rates for spring (82%) and summer (85%) SATVI. Several environmental variables affected vegetation recovery trajectories as indicated by interactions with time since treatment. Yearly warm season precipitation had a positive effect on SATVI recovery that increased over time, whereas the positive effect of extreme high warm season precipitation following treatment decreased over time for both seasons of vegetation measurements. For spring SATVI, the positive effect of cool season yearly precipitation increased over time while the negative effect of extreme high temperatures following treatment became more negative over time. Invasive species presence led to higher spring, but not summer, SATVI. Conclusions Satellite‐based remote sensing is a promising tool to assess vegetation recovery following restoration treatments, particularly when it is combined with ground‐based monitoring. Our results suggest that weather extremes following restoration treatments can affect vegetation recovery trajectories and should be considered in decisions such as the timing of restoration treatments.

Applied Vegetation Science↗

USGS2018

Beyond traditional ecological restoration on the Colorado Plateau

The Colorado Plateau is one of North America's five major deserts, encompassing 340,000 km 2 of the western U.S., and offering many opportunities for restoration relevant to researchers and land managers in drylands around the globe. The Colorado Plateau is comprised of vast tracts of public land managed by local, state, and federal agencies that oversee a wide range of activities (e.g., mineral and energy extraction, livestock grazing, and recreation). About 75% of the Plateau is managed by federal and tribal agencies and tens of millions of people visit the Plateau's public lands each year. However, even in the face of this diverse use, our knowledge of effective ways to restore Plateau ecosystems remains relatively poor. Further, the multiple agencies on the Plateau have mandates that differ greatly in allowable practices, restoration needs, and desired outcomes. The Colorado Plateau is also expected to undergo ecosystem shifts in the face of climate change, further complicating management decisions and potentially limiting some options while creating others. Here we explore the current state of Colorado Plateau restoration science and underscore key challenges and opportunities for improving our capacity to maintain the myriad of services provided by these desert ecosystems. We highlight past research efforts and future needs related to restoration concepts, including consideration and design of novel ecosystems, mitigation for and adaptation to climate change, use of genetically diverse seed adapted for current and future conditions, and the value of strong multi‐agency and stakeholder collaborations in restoring systems on the Colorado Plateau and beyond.

Colorado Plateau↗

USGS2018

Plant production responses to precipitation differ along an elevation gradient and are enhanced under extremes

The sensitivity of plant production to precipitation underlies the functioning of ecosystems. Studies that relate long-term mean annual precipitation and production across multiple sites (spatial relationship) or examine interannual linkages within a site (temporal relationship) can reveal biophysical controls over ecosystem function but have limited ability to infer responses to extreme changes in precipitation that may become more common under climate change. To overcome limitations of using a single approach, we integrated satellite- and ground-based estimates of production with a standardized, multi-site precipitation manipulation experiment across a grassland elevation gradient in the southwestern USA. The responsiveness of production to changes in precipitation followed the order: temporal (0.06–0.13 g m −2 mm −1 ) < spatial (0.21 g m −2 mm −1 ) < experimental relationship (0.25–0.42 g m −2 mm −1 ), suggesting that spatial and temporal relationships determined with satellite- and ground-based estimates cannot be extrapolated to determine the effect of extreme events. A strong production response to differences in mean annual precipitation across sites reinforces a regional control of water availability. Interannual sensitivity to precipitation was strongest at the low elevation grasslands, and the high elevation mixed conifer meadow had a large reduction in production in a drought year. Extreme experimental drought strongly reduced production in low elevation grasslands, but water addition had mixed effects. High elevation meadows were insensitive to both extreme drought and water addition. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for extreme climate regimes and site-level factors when scaling climate change effects up to regional and global scales.

Ecosystems↗

USGS2018

Hydrological regime and climate interactively shape riparian vegetation composition along the Colorado River, Grand Canyon

Question How closely do riparian plant communities track hydrological and climatic variation in space, and how do interactions among hydrological and climatic filters influence success of flow management strategies? Location Grand Canyon, Arizona, USA. Methods Multi‐year vegetation surveys were conducted across three hydrological zones – active channel, active floodplain and inactive floodplain – within each of 42 sandbars that vary geographically in temperature and precipitation along a 400‐km river segment. Ecological niche models were used to estimate locally optimal conditions of maximum inundation duration, elevation above daily peak flow, mean annual precipitation, and mean maximum and minimum temperature for 16 of the most abundant woody and 58 most abundant herbaceous plant species. These estimates were used to calculate community‐weighted mean (CWM) environmental preferences, which were used to determine how closely vegetation preferences tracked local variation in environmental factors, and to assess interactive responses of species and communities to variation in hydrology and climate. Results Communities closely tracked hydrological variation across zones, but less so within zones. Communities tracked variation in minimum temperature more closely than maximum temperature or precipitation. At the species level, woody plants that were more abundant in wetter hydrological conditions were also more abundant in wetter climatic conditions, and vice versa. This relationship was even stronger at the community level, where there were significant negative relationships between CWM preferences of inundation duration and temperature for both woody and herbaceous vegetation. Conclusions The climate‐hydrology linkages found in this system suggest that increasing temperatures and drought are likely to reduce the inundation tolerance of riparian vegetation within the Grand Canyon. Increasing the duration of high flow events would likely reduce the abundance of encroaching woody vegetation, but could also reduce the resilience of remaining vegetation to heat waves and drought. The reinforcing effects of climatic and hydrological filters are likely to generally result in greater sensitivity of species composition to environmental change than if those environmental filters acted independently. These results have implications for predicting resource responses to environmental change, as well as prescriptions for direct vegetation management to enhance resilience.

Colorado River, Grand Canyon↗

USGS2018

Anticipatory natural resource science and management for a changing future

Prolonged shifts in long‐term average climate conditions and increasing variability in short‐term weather conditions affect ecological processes, and represent a fundamental challenge for natural resource management. Recent and forthcoming advances in climate predictability may offer novel opportunities, but capitalizing on these opportunities will require focusing scientific research on understanding the links between climate and ecological responses over multiple timescales, fostering programmatic links among science and management agencies, and developing new and flexible decision‐making frameworks. Anticipating short‐ to near‐term climate conditions can help managers mitigate land degradation driven by unfavorable conditions and promote actions that make the most of favorable conditions. Similarly, anticipating long‐term, multidecadal climate trajectories can help managers to identify those species and communities that are most likely to remain viable throughout the 21st century. A focus on “anticipatory science and management” could substantially bolster natural resource planning and management but will require long‐term investment and widespread adoption.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗