Geology topics

Borja Reguero

Publications and source records attributed to Borja Reguero.

10 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Morphodynamic controls on the performance of dune-based coastal flood mitigation under sea-level rise

Dune-based adaptation is increasingly used as a nature-based solution for coastal flood mitigation, yet many assessments rely on hydrodynamic-only approaches that treat beach and dune morphology as static, neglecting storm-driven erosion that can degrade dune performance during extreme events. This study develops a process-based modeling framework coupling extreme value analysis of regional wave climate with XBeach surfbeat simulations to evaluate coastal flooding, erosion, and dune performance across three time horizons (2025, 2055, 2085) and four storm return periods (5, 20, 50, and 100 years) at two contrasting sites in Santa Cruz County, California. At Santa Cruz Beach, flood extent increases at an accelerating rate with sea-level rise (SLR) for a given return period, while higher return period storms exhibit diminishing incremental increases under fixed SLR conditions. Storm-scale morphodynamic feedbacks reduce predicted flood extent by up to 32.4% through profile adjustment and nearshore bar formation. Dune effectiveness is strongly regime-dependent, reducing flooding by up to 60% under collision-regime conditions but declining rapidly as the system transitions toward overwash and inundation under stronger storms and late-century SLR. Comparison of static and erodible dune representations shows that flood estimates are not consistently conservative, with differences reaching up to 54.3% depending on storm intensity and time horizon. At Capitola Beach, limited accommodation space and water-level-dominated dynamics collectively constrain morphodynamic adjustment, render the site near its inundation capacity under present-day conditions, and result in near-complete dune collapse and limited flood mitigation across all scenarios. These findings highlight the importance of site-specific regime evaluation, process-based morphodynamic modeling, and adaptive management when assessing dune-based adaptation under rising sea levels.

California↗

USGS2026

Coral reef protection may help avert risks to people, property, and economic activity caused by projected reef degradation

Degradation of coral reefs over the past several decades has caused regional-scale erosion of the shallow seafloor that serves as a protective barrier against coastal hazards along southeast Florida, USA. How future change in coral reefs may affect coastal flooding, however, has been less attended than other factors contributing to increasing risks such as sea-level rise and more intense storms. Here, the increased flooding hazard faced by Florida's coastal communities from the projected future degradation of its adjacent coral reefs is evaluated through oceanographic, coastal engineering, habitat, geospatial, and socioeconomic modeling. Risk-based valuation approaches were followed to map flood zones at 10-m 2 resolution along 430 km of Florida's reef-lined coast for the current and projected future coral reef conditions. The projected degradation of Florida's coral reefs can increase annual flooding to more than 8.77 km 2 of land and 4,980 km of roads, affecting more than 7,315 people, $412.5 million in damages to 1,400 buildings, and economic disruption of $438.1 million annually (2024 US dollars). The degradation of Florida's coral reefs would increase the annual risk to people and structures by more than 42% and 47%, respectively, but is spatially variable due to the heterogeneous alongshore nature and distribution of the reefs and communities: the increased risk exceeds $1 million/km annually to more than 17% of the coastline but also disproportionately would affect vulnerable populations. These results help identify areas where coral reef protection could help reduce the projected increased storm flooding risk to Florida's coastal communities.

Florida↗

USGS2025

Where to restore and conserve? A regional benefit cost analysis of coral reef protection and restoration for coastal flood resilience

Momentum is growing for the management of coral reefs as a strategy to reduce climate risks in tropical coastlines. Yet, quantification of the life-time costs, impacts, and benefits remains limited. This study provides one of the first rigorous, spatially explicit, regional-scale Benefit:Cost Analyses (BCA) for coral reef restoration and was designed to meet the BCA requirements of major hazard mitigation funding and programs. This study simulates coastal flooding using a hydrodynamic model under different scenarios representing current coral reef conditions, reef degradation, and reef restoration. These coastal flood maps are used to estimate socioeconomic damages, which are included in a BCA to assess cost-effectiveness and priority areas for coral reef conservation and restoration. The United States Virgin Islands is used as a case study given recent impacts from storms and their new policy that declares reefs as natural infrastructure. The results show that flood risk across the islands of Saint Croix, Saint John, and Saint Thomas is $51.4 million USD per year. Annually, coral reefs prevent flood damages to 481 people and $43.6 million USD of infrastructure, which represents 87 % of the flood risk. These results identify the communities that could receive the greatest benefits from coral conservation and restoration, which overlap significantly. Coral reef restoration is found to be a cost-effective strategy for flood mitigation although how reefs are restored matters. Hybrid coral reef restoration provides greater flood mitigation benefits than ecological restoration, but its cost-effectiveness is overall lower given its greater costs. Many coastal areas have benefit:cost ratios exceeding 1.5, which complies with typical government agencies’ requirements for accessing hazard mitigation funds. This valuation framework helps provide rigorous regional-scale quantification of nature-based coastal protection solutions for coastal risk management decisions.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

USGS2025

Hybrid coral reef restoration can be a cost-effective nature-based solution to provide protection to vulnerable coastal populations

Coral reefs can mitigate flood damages by providing protection to tropical coastal communities whose populations are dense, growing fast, and have predominantly lower-middle income. This study provides the first fine-scale, regionally modeled valuations of how flood risk reductions associated with hybrid coral reef restoration could benefit people, property, and economic activity along Florida and Puerto Rico’s 1005 kilometers of reef-lined coasts. Restoration of up to 20% of the regions’ coral reefs could provide flood reduction benefits greater than costs. Reef habitats with the greatest benefits are shallow, nearshore, and fronting low-lying, vulnerable communities, which are often where reef impacts and loss are the greatest. Minorities, children, the elderly, and those below the poverty line could receive more than double the hazard risk reduction benefits of the overall population, demonstrating that reef restoration as a nature-based solution can have positive returns on investment economically and socially by providing protection to the most vulnerable people.

Florida↗

USGS2024

Shifting sands: The influence of coral reefs on shoreline erosion from short-term storm protection to long-term disequilibrium

Climate change is exacerbating shoreline erosion and flooding, posing significant risks to coastal communities. Although traditional coastal defenses such as seawalls, dykes, and breakwaters offer protection from these hazards, their high environmental and economic costs are driving interest in cost-competitive nature-based solutions. Coral reef restoration is a nature-based solution that may be particularly apt to mitigate tropical coastal flooding and shoreline erosion while providing benefits to local tourism, fisheries, and nature. However, the novelty of this field requires studies demonstrating the benefits of reefs for coastal protection. While the flood protection benefits of reefs have been well-documented, their effects on shoreline erosion are comparatively less understood. Here, we investigate the effects of coral reefs on shoreline erosion by comparing tropical beach responses at short and long timescales, as well as identifying important reef structural features influencing coastal erosion rates. Our analyses leveraged two key datasets created in this study: the first derived from a literature review on short-term shoreline erosion due to storm events, and another compiling >80 years of long-term erosion rates, bathymetry, habitat, and wave energy for the Hawaiian Islands of Kauaʻi, Oʻahu, and Maui. Our analyses reveal three key findings regarding the effects of reefs on shoreline erosion. Firstly, we find evidence for the role of reefs in mitigating shoreline erosion during storm events, with coral reef-protected beaches experiencing 97 % less beach volume loss than unprotected beaches. Secondly, a linear regression analysis demonstrates that coral reef structure and wave energy are important predictors of long-term shoreline erosion rates, explaining 34 % of the variation across the Hawaiian Islands. Consistent with prior research, we find beaches protected by coral reefs with shallow reef crests, wide reef flats, calmer offshore conditions, and positioned farther from the shore exhibit lower erosion rates than others. Finally, when comparing historical erosion rates of protected and unprotected beaches in Hawai'i, we find a seemingly incongruous pattern where coral reef-protected beaches eroded up to 2x faster than beaches without reefs. While the cause of the enhanced erosion is yet to be fully understood, a combination of coral reef structural degradation and sea-level rise is likely shifting the equilibrium profiles of reef-protected beaches inshore. These results emphasize the role of coral reefs in reducing coastal erosion during storm events while revealing contrasting erosion patterns over long timescales. Future studies would ideally broaden the scope to include various regions, utilize advanced sediment transport models, and undertake field experiments to deepen our understanding of coral reef-coupled shoreline dynamics.

Nature-Based Solutions↗

USGS2024

Improved efficient physics-based computational modeling of regional wave-driven coastal flooding for reef-lined coastlines

Coastal flooding affects low-lying communities worldwide and is expected to increase with climate change, especially along reef-lined coasts, where wave-driven flooding is particularly prevalent. However, current regional modeling approaches are either insufficient or too computationally expensive to accurately assess risks in these complex environments. This study introduces and validates an improved computationally efficient and physics-based approach to compute dynamic wave-driven regional flooding on reef-lined coasts. We coupled a simplified-physics flood model (SFINCS) with a one-dimensional wave transformation model (XBeach-1D). To assess the performance of the proposed approach, we compared its results with results from a fully resolving two-dimensional wave transformation model (XBeach-2D). We applied this approach for a range of storms and sea-level rise scenarios for two contrasting reef-lined coastal geomorphologies: one low relief area and one high relief area. Our findings reveal that SFINCS coupled with XBeach-1D generates flood extents comparable to those produced by XBeach-2D, with a hit rate of 92%. However, this method tends to underpredict the flood extent of weaker, high-frequency storms and overpredict stronger, low-frequency storms. Across scenarios, our approach overpredicted the mean flood water depth, with a positive bias of 7 cm and root mean square difference of 15 cm. Offering approximately 100 times greater computational efficiency than its two-dimensional XBeach counterpart, this flood modeling technique is recommended for wave-driven flood modeling in scenarios with high computational demands, such as modeling numerous scenarios or undertaking detailed regional-scale modeling.

Journal of Marine Science & Engineering↗

USGS2024

Quantifying the coastal hazard risk reduction benefits of coral reef restoration in the U.S. Virgin Islands

Coastal habitat restoration, especially of coral reef ecosystems, can significantly reduce the exposure of coastal communities to natural hazards and, consequently, the risk of wave-driven flooding. Likewise, reef degradation can increase coastal flood risks to people and property. In this study, the valuation of coral reefs in the United States Virgin Islands (USVI), along the coasts of St. Croix, St. John, and St. Thomas, demonstrated the social and economic benefits provided by these natural defenses. Across the territory, more than 481 people and $31.2 million of infrastructure were estimated to receive protection from coral reefs per year (2010 U.S. dollars). In 2017, Hurricanes Irma and Maria significantly damaged coral reefs throughout the archipelago. By combining engineering, ecological, geospatial, social, and economic data and tools, this study provided a rigorous valuation of where potential coral reef restoration projects could help rebuild these damaged habitats and decrease the risks from coastal hazards faced by USVI’s reef-fronted communities. Multiple restoration scenarios were considered in the analysis, two of which are detailed in this report. These include (1) ‘Ecological’ restoration, where restoration creates a structure that is 0.25 m high and 25-m-wide reef, and (2) ‘Hybrid’ restoration, where restoration creates a structure that is 1.25 m high and 5 m wide. There are many ways that such structures could be developed. In the hydrodynamic analyses, there are no assumptions about how the restoration is developed. Many practitioners of both coral (and oyster reef) restoration consider that a reef height of 0.25 m might be delivered from planting corals alone and that 1.25 m might require a combination of artificial structures and coral planting. In a third scenario, the analysis investigated the reduction of protection benefits that would occur through the reduction of 1 meter of naturally occurring reef height due to reef degradation. The reduction of protection due to the loss of reefs can also be interpreted as the protection value of the existing reefs. In all studied restoration scenarios, it was assumed that the planting of corals would enhance hydrodynamic roughness, effectively dissipating incident wave energy and reducing the potential for coastal flooding. A standardized approach was employed to strategically locate potential restoration projects along the entire linear extent of existing reefs bordering the USVI, and to identify where coral reef restoration could offer valuable benefits in flood reduction. Potential restoration projects were only located within the existing distribution of reefs across the region, even though numerous sites were positioned far offshore (2-3 km), and some were at relatively deep depths (up to 7 m). Risk-based valuation approaches were followed to delineate flood zones at a 10 m 2 resolution along the entire region's reef-lined shorelines for all the potential coral reef restoration scenarios. These were subsequently compared to flood zones without coral reef restoration. The potential reduction in coastal flood risk provided by coral reef restoration, and the protection value of existing reefs, were quantified utilizing the latest information available at the time of analysis from the U.S. Census Bureau, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and Bureau of Economic Analysis for return-interval storm events. The change in Expected Annual Damages (EAD), a metric indicating the annual protection gained due to coral reef restoration, was calculated based on the damages associated with each storm probability. The findings suggest that the benefits of reef restoration are spatially variable within the USVI. In some areas, the analysis showed limited benefits from reef restoration, which may be attributed to the depth or offshore distances of proposed restoration sites. However, there were a number of key areas where reef restoration could have substantial benefits for flood risk reduction. The annual flood risk reduction attributed to potential ‘ecological’ coral reef restoration in the USVI was 99 people and $6.1 million (2010 U.S. dollars). The Benefit-to-Cost Ratio (BCR) for this restoration approach was found to be larger than 1 (i.e., cost-effective) along 11% of the St. Croix coastline, 4.9% of the St. John coastline, and 8.7% of the St. Thomas coastline. This analysis offers stakeholders and decision-makers a spatially explicit and rigorous evaluation that illustrates how, where, and when potential coral reef restoration efforts in St. Croix, St. John, and St. Thomas could be instrumental to reducing coastal storm-induced flooding. Understanding areas where reef management, recovery, and restoration could effectively reduce climate hazard-related risks is crucial to protect and enhance the resilience of coastal communities in USVI.

Report↗

USGS2023

Coral restoration for coastal resilience: Integrating ecology, hydrodynamics, and engineering at multiple scales

The loss of functional and accreting coral reefs reduces coastal protection and resilience for tropical coastlines. Coral restoration has potential for recovering healthy reefs that can mitigate risks from coastal hazards and increase sustainability. However, scaling up restoration to the large extent needed for coastal protection requires integrated application of principles from coastal engineering, hydrodynamics, and ecology across multiple spatial scales, as well as filling missing knowledge gaps across disciplines. This synthesis aims to identify how scientific understanding of multidisciplinary processes at interconnected scales can advance coral reef restoration. The work is placed within the context of a decision support framework to evaluate the design and effectiveness of coral restoration for coastal resilience. Successfully linking multidisciplinary science with restoration practice will ensure that future large-scale coral reef restorations maximize protection for at-risk coastal communities.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2023

Central Beaufort Sea Wave and Hydrodynamic Modeling Study--Report 1: Field measurements and model development

Renewed interest in nearshore oil exploration and production in the shallow waters of the Central Beaufort Sea Shelf has created a need to advance our understanding of the past, current, and future atmospheric and oceanographic conditions that affect existing and planned infrastructure and nearshore ecosystems. At the time of writing this report, Hilcorp Alaska, LLC, has received BOEM approval for an oil and gas Development and Production Plan (DPP) that includes the construction of the Liberty Drilling Island (LDI) in Foggy Island Bay, situated within Stefansson Sound circa 30 km east of Prudhoe Bay (Figure 1.1). The aim of this study is to investigate how longer periods of open water (defined as < 15% ice cover), decreased sea ice cover, and changes in ocean and atmospheric conditions might affect wave and storm surge conditions, sediment transport patterns, and coastal erosion rates within Foggy Island Bay as well as the modeled influence of the offshore artificial island on sediment transport patterns.

Foggy Island Bay↗

USGS2021

Global-scale changes to extreme ocean wave events due to anthropogenic warming

Extreme surface ocean waves are often primary drivers of coastal flooding and erosion over various time scales. Hence, understanding future changes in extreme wave events owing to global warming is of socio-economic and environmental significance. However, our current knowledge of potential changes in high-frequency (defined here as having return periods of less than 1 year) extreme wave events are largely unknown, despite being strongly linked to coastal hazards across time scales relevant to coastal management. Here, we present global climate-modeling evidence, based on the most comprehensive multi-method, multi-model wave ensemble, of projected changes in a core set of extreme wave indices describing high-frequency, extra-tropical storm-driven waves. We find changes in high-frequency extreme wave events of up to ∼50%–100% under RCP8.5 high-emission scenario; which is nearly double the expected changes for RCP4.5 scenario, when globally integrated. The projected changes exhibit strong inter-hemispheric asymmetry, with strong increases in extreme wave activity across the tropics and high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere region, and a widespread decrease across most of the Northern Hemisphere. We find that the patterns of projected increase across these extreme wave events over the Southern Hemisphere region resemble their historical response to the positive anomaly of the Southern Annular Mode. Our findings highlight that many countries with low-adaptive capacity are likely to face increasing exposure to much more frequent extreme wave events in the future.

Environmental Research Letters↗