Geology topics

Blake A. Grisham

Publications and source records attributed to Blake A. Grisham.

18 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2024

Melded integrated population models

Integrated population models provide a framework for assimilating multiple datasets to understand population dynamics. Understanding drivers of demography is key to improving wildlife management, and integrated population models have informed conservation practices for many species of conservation concern. Motivated by multiple surveys of lesser prairie-chicken ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ), we developed a flexible integrated population modeling framework for assimilating demographic data with multiple surveys of abundance. Measurements of abundance are derived from aerial and ground surveys that vary in their observational uncertainty, sampling design, temporal coverage, and survey effort. Our proposed integrated population model draws from the strengths of each survey and prevents their sampling biases from compromising inference. We facilitate posterior inference for our integrated population model using chained Markov melding, which induces the joint distribution for all data sources by linking inference across several submodels. Using Markov melding, we extend the modeling framework previously proposed for analyzing the individual data sources while still obtaining joint Bayesian inference. We fit the melded model with a multistage Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that decreases run time and improves mixing. We assimilate data from several state and federal wildlife agencies and over a dozen independent researchers to infer lesser prairie-chicken abundance and vital rates across its entire range over the last 18 years. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear online.

Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas↗

USGS2022

Structural and functional landscape connectivity for lesser prairie-chickens in the Sand Shinnery Oak Prairie Ecoregion

The lesser prairie-chicken ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ) is a species of conservation concern on the Southern High Plains of Texas and New Mexico, USA. Because fragmentation and isolation have increased since pre-settlement, dispersal through this heterogeneous landscape may be constrained, with serious implications for conservation and management of this species. Our objectives were to quantify landscape connectivity for lesser prairie-chickens within a patch network of potentially isolated leks (breeding display grounds), and examine effects of land use change on modeled lesser prairie-chicken movements through the landscape. We used graph theory to quantify structural landscape connectivity and circuit theory to quantify functional landscape connectivity for lesser prairie-chickens in the Sand Shinnery Oak Prairie Ecoregion of the Southern High Plains. There was a high degree of clustering among leks ( n = 1,023 leks), with a 41.9-km coalescence distance of the network. We identified 3 leks as cutpoints within the network, meaning if the habitat patches containing these leks were fragmented, the remaining leks would become isolated from each other. We also identified several leks that were important for maintaining overall population connectivity for lesser prairie-chickens on the Southern High Plains. Conservation Reserve Program land was important for maintaining connectivity among leks to the north and west of the main lek core area located in New Mexico, but wind energy development constrained pathways to the north and south of this main lek core area. Our results suggest that landscape connectivity was reduced by row-crop agriculture and energy production and facilitated by the Conservation Reserve Program within the Sand Shinnery Oak Prairie Ecoregion.

New Mexico, Texas↗

USGS2021

Migration efficiency sustains connectivity across agroecological networks supporting sandhill crane migration

Preserving avian flyway connectivity has long been challenged by our capacity to meaningfully quantify continental habitat dynamics and bird movements at temporal and spatial scales underlying long-distance migrations. Waterbirds migrating hundreds or thousands of kilometers depend on networks of wetland stopover sites to rest and refuel. Entire populations may rely on discrete wetland habitats, particularly in arid landscapes where the loss of limited stopover options can have disproportionately high impacts on migratory cost. Here, we examine flyway connectivity in water-limited ecosystems of western North America using 108 GPS tagged greater sandhill cranes. Bird movements were used to reconstruct wetland stopover networks across three geographically unique sub-populations spanning 12 US-Mexican states and Canadian provinces. Networks were monitored with remote sensing to identify long-term (1988-2019) trends in wetland and agricultural resources supporting migration and evaluated using network theory and centrality metrics as a measure of stopover site importance to flyway connectivity. Sandhill crane space-use was analyzed in stopover locations to identify important ownership and landscape factors structuring bird distributions. Migratory efficiency was the primary mechanism underpinning network function. A small number of key stopover sites important to minimizing movement cost between summering and wintering locations were essential to preserving flyway connectivity. Localized efficiencies were apparent in stopover landscapes given prioritization of space-use by birds where the proximity of agricultural food resources and flooded wetlands minimized daily movements. Model depictions showing wetland declines from 16-18% likely reflect a new normal in landscape drying that could decouple agriculture-waterbird relationships as water scarcity intensifies. Sustaining network resilience will require conservation strategies to balance water allocations preserving agricultural and wetlands on private lands that accounted for 67-96% of habitat use. Study outcomes provide new perspectives of agroecological relationships supporting continental waterbird migration needed to prioritize conservation of landscapes vital to maintaining flyway connectivity.

western North America↗

USGS2016

Interactive effects between nest microclimate and nest vegetation structure confirm microclimate thresholds for Lesser Prairie-Chicken nest survival

The range of Lesser Prairie-Chickens ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ) spans 4 unique ecoregions along 2 distinct environmental gradients. The Sand Shinnery Oak Prairie ecoregion of the Southern High Plains of New Mexico and Texas is environmentally isolated, warmer, and more arid than the Short-Grass, Sand Sagebrush, and Mixed-Grass Prairie ecoregions in Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, and the northeast panhandle of Texas. Weather is known to influence Lesser Prairie-Chicken nest survival in the Sand Shinnery Oak Prairie ecoregion; regional variation may also influence nest microclimate and, ultimately, survival during incubation. To address this question, we placed data loggers adjacent to nests during incubation to quantify temperature and humidity distribution functions in 3 ecoregions. We developed a suite of a priori nest survival models that incorporated derived microclimate parameters and visual obstruction as covariates in Program MARK. We monitored 49 nests in Mixed-Grass, 22 nests in Sand Shinnery Oak, and 30 nests in Short-Grass ecoregions from 2010 to 2014. Our findings indicated that (1) the Sand Shinnery Oak Prairie ecoregion was hotter and drier during incubation than the Mixed- and Short-Grass ecoregions; (2) nest microclimate varied among years within ecoregions; (3) visual obstruction was positively associated with nest survival; but (4) daily nest survival probability decreased by 10% every half-hour when temperature was greater than 34°C and vapor pressure deficit was less than −23 mmHg during the day (about 0600–2100 hours). Our major finding confirmed microclimate thresholds for nest survival under natural conditions across the species' distribution, although Lesser Prairie-Chickens are more likely to experience microclimate conditions that result in nest failures in the Sand Shinnery Oak Prairie ecoregion. The species would benefit from identification of thermal landscapes and management actions that promote cooler, more humid nest microclimates.

The Condor↗

USGS2016

Long-term lesser prairie-chicken nest ecology in response to grassland management

Long-term population and range declines from habitat loss and fragmentation caused the lesser prairie-chicken ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ) to be a species of concern throughout its range. Current lesser prairie-chicken range in New Mexico and Texas is partially restricted to sand shinnery oak ( Quercus havardii ; hereafter shinnery oak) prairies, on which cattle grazing is the main socioeconomic driver for private landowners. Cattle producers within shinnery oak prairies often focus land management on shrub eradication using the herbicide tebuthiuron to promote grass production for forage; however, herbicide application alone, and in combination with grazing, may affect nest site selection and nest survival of lesser prairie-chickens through the reduction of shinnery oak and native grasses. We used a controlled, paired, completely randomized design study to assess the influence of grazing and tebuthiuron application and their combined use on nest site selection and nest survival from 2001 to 2010 in Roosevelt County, New Mexico, USA at 2 spatial scales (i.e., treatment and microhabitat) in 4 treatments: tebuthiuron with grazing, tebuthiuron without grazing, no tebuthiuron with grazing, and a control of no tebuthiuron and no grazing. Grazing treatment was a short-duration system in which plots were grazed once during the dormant season and once during the growing season. Stocking rate was calculated each season based on measured forage production and applied to remove ≤25% of available herbaceous material per season. At the treatment scale, we compared nest site selection among treatments using 1-way χ 2 tests and nest survival among treatments using a priori candidate nest survival models in Program MARK. At the microhabitat scale, we identified important habitat predictors of nest site selection and nest survival using logistic regression and a priori candidate nest survival models in Program MARK, respectively. Females typically used treatments as expected and we did not detect trends in selection. Nest survival did not differ among treatments. At the microhabitat scale, nest sites had less bare ground ( P  = 0.001) and greater angles of obstruction ( P  ≤ 0.001) compared to random sites. There was a high degree of model selection uncertainty among our candidate models at the microhabitat scale and survival estimates were similar among habitat covariates. Results suggest a tebuthiuron application rate of 0.60 kg/ha, short-duration grazing, and a combination of these management techniques were not detrimental to lesser prairie-chicken nest site selection or nest survival. However, intensified management that increases bare ground or reduces overhead cover may negatively affect lesser prairie-chicken nesting habitat and nest survival.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2016

Restoring sand shinnery oak prairies with herbicide and grazing in New Mexico

Sand shinnery oak ( Quercus havardii ) prairies are increasingly disappearing and increasingly degraded in the Southern High Plains of Texas and New Mexico. Restoring and managing sand shinnery oak prairie can support biodiversity, specific species of conservation concern, and livestock production. We measured vegetation response to four treatment combinations of herbicide (tebuthiuron applied at 0.60 kg/ha) and moderate-intensity grazing (50% removal of annual herbaceous production) over a 10-year period in a sand shinnery oak prairie of eastern New Mexico. We compared the annual vegetation response to the historical climax plant community (HCPC) as outlined by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Ecological Site Description. From 2 to 10 years postapplication, tebuthiuron-treated plots had reduced shrub cover with twice as much forb and grass cover as untreated plots. Tebuthiuron-treated plots, regardless of the presence of grazing, most frequently met HCPC. Tebuthiuron and moderate-intensity grazing increased vegetation heterogeneity and, based on comparison of the HCPC, successfully restored sand shinnery oak prairie to a vegetation composition similar to presettlement.

New Mexico↗

USGS2016

Assessing range-wide habitat suitability for the Lesser Prairie-Chicken

Population declines of many wildlife species have been linked to habitat loss incurred through land-use change. Incorporation of conservation planning into development planning may mitigate these impacts. The threatened Lesser Prairie-Chicken ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ) is experiencing loss of native habitat and high levels of energy development across its multijurisdictional range. Our goal was to explore relationships of the species occurrence with landscape characteristics and anthropogenic effects influencing its distribution through evaluation of habitat suitability associated with one particular habitat usage, lekking. Lekking has been relatively well-surveyed, though not consistently, in all jurisdictions. All five states in which Lesser Prairie-Chickens occur cooperated in development of a Maxent habitat suitability model. We created two models, one with state as a factor and one without state. When state was included it was the most important predictor, followed by percent of land cover consisting of known or suspected used vegetation classes within a 5000 m area around a lek. Without state, land cover was the most important predictor of relative habitat suitability for leks. Among the anthropogenic predictors, landscape condition, a measure of human impact integrated across several factors, was most important, ranking third in importance without state. These results quantify the relative suitability of the landscape within the current occupied range of Lesser Prairie-Chickens. These models, combined with other landscape information, form the basis of a habitat assessment tool that can be used to guide siting of development projects and targeting of areas for conservation.

Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas↗

USGS2016

Ecology and conservation of Lesser Prairie-Chickens in sand shinnery oak prairies

Sand shinnery oak (Quercus havardii) prairies are unique ecosystems endemic to sandy soils of eastern New Mexico, northwestern Texas, and western Oklahoma; the historic and current distribution of the Lesser Prairie-Chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) overlaps these prairie systems. Lesser Prairie-Chicken populations in sand shinnery oak prairies of the Southern Great Plains have declined substantially since the late 1980s, most likely due to conversion of nesting and brood-rearing habitat to row-crop agriculture and extended periods of drought. In addition to threats universal throughout the species distribution, this population is susceptible to a changing climate in an area that is already representative of an extreme environment for ground-nesting birds. Recent studies of Lesser Prairie-Chicken ecology in sand shinnery oak prairies have expanded our knowledge on the ecology and management of the species, but a thorough review of the historic and current literature is lacking. In addition, current management guidelines exist for Lesser Prairie-Chickens in mixed grass and sand sagebrush prairies, but there are no comprehensive management guidelines for the species in sand shinnery oak prairies. This information is paramount given unique aspects of the vegetation community, relative ecosystem drivers, and environmental variation in sand shinnery oak prairie and the species’ current status as a proposed threatened species under the United States Endangered Species Act. Herein, we provide a thorough synthesis of literature pertaining to the life history, habitat requirements, habitat management, and population management for Lesser Prairie-Chickens in sand shinnery oak prairie, provide management guidelines and recommendations for the species in this ecoregion, and highlight current and future research needs. Within our objectives, we place emphasis on two recently completed long-term investigations into Lesser Prairie-Chicken ecology in sand shinnery oak prairie - a 10-year vegetation data set collected in Roosevelt County, New Mexico, 2001–2011 and a 6-year Lesser Prairie-Chicken data set collected in Roosevelt County, New Mexico and Cochran, Hockley, Terry, and Yoakum counties, Texas, 2006–2012.

Book chapter↗

USGS2015

New summer areas and mixing of two greater sandhill crane populations in the Intermountain West

Population delineation throughout the annual life cycle for migratory birds is needed to formulate regional and national management and conservation strategies. Despite being well studied continentally, connectivity of sandhill crane Grus canadensis populations throughout the western portion of their North American range remains poorly described. Our objectives were to 1) use global positioning system satellite transmitter terminals to identify summer distributions for the Lower Colorado River Valley Population of greater sandhill cranes Grus canadensis tabida and 2) determine whether intermingling occurs among any of the western greater sandhill crane populations: Rocky Mountain Population, Lower Colorado River Valley Population, and Central Valley Population. Capture and marking occurred during winter and summer on private lands in California and Idaho as well as on two National Wildlife Refuges: Cibola and Sonny Bono Salton Sea National Wildlife Refuges. A majority of marked greater sandhill cranes summered in what is established Lower Colorado River Valley Population breeding areas in northeastern Nevada and southwestern Idaho. A handful of greater sandhill cranes summered outside of traditional breeding areas in west-central Idaho around Cascade Reservoir near Donnelly and Cascade, Idaho. For example, a greater sandhill crane colt captured near Donnelly in July 2014 survived to winter migration and moved south to areas associated with the Rocky Mountain Population. The integration of the greater sandhill crane colt captured near Donnelly provides the first evidence of potential intermingling between the Lower Colorado River Population and Rocky Mountain Population. We suggest continued marking and banding efforts of all three western populations of greater sandhill cranes will accurately delineate population boundaries and connectivity and inform management decisions for the three populations.

Arizona, California, Idaho↗

USGS2015

Evaluation of capture techniques on lesser prairie-chicken trap injury and survival

Ethical treatment of research animals is required under the Animal Welfare Act. This includes trapping methodologies that reduce unnecessary pain and duress. Traps used in research should optimize animal welfare conditions within the context of the proposed research study. Several trapping techniques are used in the study of lesser prairie-chickens, despite lack of knowledge of trap injury caused by the various methods. From 2006 to 2012, we captured 217, 40, and 144 lesser prairie-chickens Tympanuchus pallidicinctus using walk-in funnel traps, rocket nets, and drop nets, respectively, in New Mexico and Texas, to assess the effects of capture technique on injury and survival of the species. We monitored radiotagged, injured lesser prairie-chickens 7–65 d postcapture to assess survival rates of injured individuals. Injuries occurred disproportionately among trap type, injury type, and sex. The predominant injuries were superficial cuts to the extremities of males captured in walk-in funnel traps. However, we observed no mortalities due to trapping, postcapture survival rates of injured birds did not vary across trap types, and the daily survival probability of an injured and uninjured bird was ≥99%. Frequency and intensity of injuries in walk-in funnel traps are due to the passive nature of these traps (researcher cannot select specific individuals for capture) and incidental capture of individuals not needed for research. Comparatively, rocket nets and drop nets allow observers to target birds for capture and require immediate removal of captured individuals from the trap. Based on our results, trap injuries would be reduced if researchers monitor and immediately remove birds from walk-in funnels before they injure themselves; move traps to target specific birds and reduce recaptures; limit the number of consecutive trapping days on a lek; and use proper netting techniques that incorporate quick, efficient, trained handling procedures.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗

USGS2015

Causes of mortality and temporal patterns in breeding season survival of lesser prairie-chickens in shinnery oak prairies

Baseline survival and mortality data for lesser prairie-chickens ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ) are lacking for shinnery oak ( Quercus havardii ) prairies. An understanding of the causes and timing of mortalities and breeding season survival in this ecoregion is important because shinnery oak prairies have hotter and drier environmental conditions, as well as different predator communities compared with the northern distribution of the species. The need for this information has become more pressing given the recent listing of the species as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. We investigated causes of mortality and survival of lesser prairie-chickens during the 6-month breeding season (1 Mar–31 Aug) of 2008–2011 on the Texas Southern High Plains, USA. We recorded 42 deaths of radiotagged individuals, and our results indicated female mortalities were proportionate among avian and mammalian predation and other causes of mortality but survival was constant throughout the 6-month breeding season. Male mortalities were constant across avian and mammalian predation and other causes, but more mortalities occurred in June compared with other months. Male survival also varied by month, and survival probabilities were lower in June–August. We found predation on leks was rare, mortalities from fence collisions were rare, female survival did not decrease during incubation or brood-rearing, and survival was influenced by drought. Our study corroborated recent studies that suggested lesser prairie-chickens are living at the edge of their physiological tolerances to environmental conditions in shinnery oak prairies. As such, lesser prairie-chickens in our study experienced different patterns of mortality and survival that we attributed to hot, dry conditions during the breeding season. Specifically, and converse to other studies on lesser prairie-chicken survival and mortality, drought positively influenced female survival because females did not incubate eggs during drought conditions; the incubation period is when females are most vulnerable to predation. Male mortalities and survival were negatively influenced by drought later in the breeding season, which we attributed to rigorous lekking activities through late May combined with lack of food and cover as the breeding season progressed into summer.

Texas↗

USGS2014

Nesting ecology and nest survival of lesser prairie-chickens on the Southern High Plains of Texas

The decline in population and range of lesser prairie-chickens ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ) throughout the central and southern Great Plains has raised concerns considering their candidate status under the United States Endangered Species Act. Baseline ecological data for lesser prairie-chickens are limited, especially for the shinnery oak-grassland communities of Texas. This information is imperative because lesser prairie-chickens in shinnery oak grasslands occur at the extreme southwestern edge of their distribution. This geographic region is characterized by hot, arid climates, less fragmentation, and less anthropogenic development than within the remaining core distribution of the species. Thus, large expanses of open rangeland with less anthropogenic development and a climate that is classified as extreme for ground nesting birds may subsequently influence nest ecology, nest survival, and nest site selection differently compared to the rest of the distribution of the species. We investigated the nesting ecology of 50 radio-tagged lesser prairie-chicken hens from 2008 to 2011 in the shinnery oak-grassland communities in west Texas and found a substantial amount of inter-annual variation in incubation start date and percent of females incubating nests. Prairie-chickens were less likely to nest near unimproved roads and utility poles and in areas with more bare ground and litter. In contrast, hens selected areas dominated by grasses and shrubs and close to stock tanks to nest. Candidate models including visual obstruction best explained daily nest survival; a 5% increase in visual obstruction improved nest survival probability by 10%. The model-averaged probability of a nest surviving the incubation period was 0.43 (SE = 0.006; 95% CI: 0.23, 0.56). Our findings indicate that lesser prairie-chicken reproduction during our study period was dynamic and was correlated with seasonal weather patterns that ultimately promoted greater grass growth earlier in the nesting season that provided visual obstruction from predators.

Texas↗

USGS2014

Lesser prairie-chicken nest site selection, microclimate, and nest survival in association with vegetation response to a grassland restoration program

Climate models predict that the region of the Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative (GPLCC) will experience increased maximum and minimum temperatures, reduced frequency but greater intensity of precipitation events, and earlier springs. These climate changes along with different landscape management techniques may influence the persistence of the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus), a candidate for protection under the Endangered Species Act and a priority species under the GPLCC, in positive or negative ways. The objectives of this study were to conduct (1) a literature review of lesser prairie-chicken nesting phenology and ecology, (2) an analysis of thermal aspects of lesser prairie-chicken nest microclimate data, and (3) an analysis of nest site selection, nest survival, and vegetation response to 10 years of tebuthiuron and/or grazing treatments. We found few reports in the literature containing useful data on the nesting phenology of lesser prairie-chickens; therefore, managers must rely on short-term observations and measurements of parameters that provide some predictive insight into climate impacts on nesting ecology. Our field studies showed that prairie-chickens on nests were able to maintain relatively consistent average nest temperature of 31 °C and nest humidities of 56.8 percent whereas average external temperatures (20.3–35.0 °C) and humidities (35.2–74.9 percent) varied widely throughout the 24 hour (hr) cycle. Grazing and herbicide treatments within our experimental areas were designed to be less intensive than in common practice. We determined nest locations by radio-tagging hen lesser prairie-chickens captured at leks, which are display grounds at which male lesser prairie-chickens aggregate and attempt to attract a female for mating. Because nest locations selected by hen lesser prairie-chicken are strongly associated with the lek at which they were captured, we assessed nesting habitat use on the basis of hens captured at individual leks, and then for all leks pooled. There was no clear pattern of selection for treatment type for nest placement among hens associated with individual leks; however, when hens from all leks were pooled, we found nesting lesser prairie-chickens selected control plots for nesting over plots that were grazed, treated with tebuthiuron, or were both grazed and treated with tebuthiuron. Overall, the probability of a nest surviving the incubation period was 0.57 for this study and did not vary significantly among treatment types. In contrast to nesting preference for untreated habitats, lek use exhibited no noticeable selection of treatment type. Over the 10 years of the habitat management study, there was 91 percent less sand shinnery oak (Quercus havardii) in treated areas than untreated areas. The removal of sand shinnery oak made environmental soil moisture more available for grasses and forbs to germinate and grow. Grasses increased by 149 percent and forbs increased by 257 percent in treated areas as compared to untreated areas throughout the study period. Our combined results, including our habitat selection analysis at the individual lek level, indicated that reduced rates of herbicide and short-duration grazing treatments were not detrimental to nesting lesser prairie-chickens and that populations of lesser prairie-chickens in shrub-dominated ecosystems may benefit from reduced rates of herbicide application and short duration of grazing that results in increased habitat heterogeneity.

New Mexico;Texas↗

USGS2013

A meta-analysis of lesser prairie-chicken nesting and brood-rearing habitats: implications for habitat management

The distribution and range of lesser prairie-chicken ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ) has been reduced by >90% since European settlement of the Great Plains of North America. Currently, lesser prairie-chickens occupy 3 general vegetation communities: sand sagebrush ( Artemisia filifolia ), sand shinnery oak ( Quercus havardii ), and mixed-grass prairies juxtaposed with Conservation Reserve Program grasslands. As a candidate for protection under the Endangered Species Act, there is a need for a synthesis that characterizes habitat structure rangewide. Thus, we conducted a meta-analysis of vegetation characteristics at nest sites and brood habitats to determine whether there was an overall effect (Hedges' d ) of habitat selection and to estimate average (95% CI) habitat characteristics at use sites. We estimated effect sizes (d i ) from the difference between use (nests and brood sites) and random sampling sites for each study ( n = 14), and derived an overall effect size (d ++ ). There was a general effect for habitat selection as evidenced by low levels of variation in effect sizes across studies and regions. There was a small to medium effect (d ++ ) = 0.20-0.82) of selection for greater vertical structure (visual obstruction) by nesting females in both vegetation communities, and selection against bare ground (d ++ = 0.20-0.58). Females with broods exhibited less selectivity for habitat components except for vertical structure. The variation of d ++ was greater during nesting than brooding periods, signifying a seasonal shift in habitat use, and perhaps a greater range of tolerance for brood-rearing habitat. The overall estimates of vegetation cover were consistent with those provided in management guidelines for the species.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

USGS2013

The predicted influence of climate change on lesser prairie-chicken reproductive parameters

The Southern High Plains is anticipated to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change. These changes may influence the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) in positive or negative ways. We assessed the potential changes in clutch size, incubation start date, and nest survival for lesser prairie-chickens for the years 2050 and 2080 based on modeled predictions of climate change and reproductive data for lesser prairie-chickens from 2001-2011 on the Southern High Plains of Texas and New Mexico. We developed 9 a priori models to assess the relationship between reproductive parameters and biologically relevant weather conditions. We selected weather variable(s) with the most model support and then obtained future predicted values from climatewizard.org. We conducted 1,000 simulations using each reproductive parameter's linear equation obtained from regression calculations, and the future predicted value for each weather variable to predict future reproductive parameter values for lesser prairie-chickens. There was a high degree of model uncertainty for each reproductive value. Winter temperature had the greatest effect size for all three parameters, suggesting a negative relationship between above-average winter temperature and reproductive output. The above-average winter temperatures are correlated to La Nina events, which negatively affect lesser prairie-chickens through resulting drought conditions. By 2050 and 2080, nest survival was predicted to be below levels considered viable for population persistence; however, our assessment did not consider annual survival of adults, chick survival, or the positive benefit of habitat management and conservation, which may ultimately offset the potentially negative effect of drought on nest survival.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2013

Diurnal activity patterns of Black-Necked Stilts (Himantopus mexicanus) during the non-breeding season in the eastern Caribbean

Diurnal activity patterns of resident Black-necked Stilts ( Himantopus mexicanus ) were observed on Guana Island, British Virgin Islands, during October 2010. Stilts were principally engaged in foraging and idle behaviors. The amount of time engaged in particular behaviors was relatively constant throughout the day, except during mid-afternoon when idleness increased and foraging decreased, with a subsequent increase in foraging in the evening. We speculate that the increase in foraging activity was a result of changing prey activity.

Journal of Caribbean Ornithology↗

USGS2013

Non-overlapping distributions of feral sheep (Ovis aries) and Stout Iguanas (Cyclura pinguis) on Guana Island, British Virgin Islands

Stout Iguanas (Cyclura pinguis) remain one of the most critically endangered reptiles in the world. Factors contributing to that status include habitat loss, predation by introduced species, and competition with introduced herbivores. On Guana Island, British Virgin Islands, the presence of feral sheep (Ovis aries) has been a hypothesized detriment to iguanas. Using motion sensitive cameras, we documented the distribution of feral sheep on Guana Island in 2010. We also quantified the impact of feral sheep on ground vegetation by comparing plant abundance at longterm sheep exclosures and areas where sheep were absent to areas where sheep were present. Finally, we compared sheep distribution to iguana distribution on the island. The co-occurrence of sheep and Stout Iguanas was less than expected, indicating possible competition. Although we detected no difference in vegetative cover between areas where sheep were present and absent, the long-term exclosures showed that the exclusion of sheep allowed the abundance of many plant species to increase. Our data support the hypothesis that feral sheep are altering the abundance of ground-level vegetation and limiting iguana distribution on the island.

Guana Island↗

USGS2012

Sexual selection and mating chronology of Lesser Prairie-Chickens

Little is known about mate selection and lek dynamics of Lesser Prairie-Chickens (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus). We collected data on male territory size and location on leks, behavior, and morphological characteristics and assessed the importance of these variables on male Lesser Prairie-Chicken mating success during spring 2008 and 2009 in the Texas Southern High Plains. We used discrete choice models and found that males that were less idle were chosen more often for mating. Our results also suggest that males with smaller territories obtained more copulations. Morphological characteristics were weaker predictors of male mating success. Peak female attendance at leks occurred during the 1-week interval starting 13 April during both years of study. Male prairie-chickens appear to make exploratory movements to, and from, leks early in the lekking season; 13 of 19 males banded early (23 Feb–13 Mar) in the lekking season departed the lek of capture and were not reobserved (11 yearlings, 2 adults). Thirty-three percent (range = 26–51%) of males on a lek mated (yearlings = 44%, adults = 20%) and males that were more active experienced greater mating success.

Wilson Journal of Ornithology↗