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Geology topics

Barry R. Noon

Publications and source records attributed to Barry R. Noon.

14 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2023

Genetic mark–recapture analysis reveals large annual variation in pre-breeding sex ratio of greater sage-grouse

Sex ratio, and the extent to which it varies over time, is an important factor in the demography, management, and conservation of wildlife populations. Greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus populations in western North America are monitored using counts of males at leks in spring. Population estimates derived from lek-count data typically assume a constant, female-biased sex ratio, yet few rigorous, empirically derived estimates of sex ratio are available to test that assumption. We estimated pre-breeding sex ratio of greater sage-grouse in a peripheral, geographically isolated population in northwestern Colorado during two consecutive winters using closed-population, robust-design, multi-state, genetic mark–recapture models in program MARK. Sex ratio varied markedly between years, with estimates of 3.29 (95% CI: 2.36–4.59) females per male in winter 2012–2013 and 1.54 (95% CI: 1.22–1.95) females per male in winter 2013–2014. Rather than assuming a constant sex ratio, biologists should consider the potential for large annual variation in sex ratio of greater sage-grouse populations when estimating population size or trend from male lek-count data.

Wildlife Biology↗
USGS2019

Genetic mark‐recapture analysis of winter faecal pellets allows estimation of population size in Sage Grouse Centrocercus urophasianus

The Sage Grouse Centrocercus urophasianus is a species of conservation concern throughout its range in western North America. Since the 1950s, the high count of males at leks has been used as an index for monitoring populations. However, the relationship between this lek‐count index and population size is unclear, and its reliability for assessing population trends has been questioned. We used non‐invasive genetic mark‐recapture analysis of faecal and feather samples to estimate pre‐breeding population size for the Parachute‐Piceance‐Roan, a small, geographically isolated population of Sage Grouse in western Colorado, during two consecutive winters from 2012 to 2014. We estimated total pre‐breeding population size as 335 (95% confidence interval (CI): 287–382) in the first winter and 745 (95% CI: 627–864) in the second, an approximate doubling in abundance between years. Although we also observed a large increase in the spring lek‐count index between those years, high male count data poorly represented mark‐recapture estimates of male abundance in each year. Our data suggest that lek counts are useful for detecting the direction and magnitude of large changes in Sage Grouse abundance over time but they may not reliably reflect small changes in abundance that may be relevant to small populations of conservation concern.

Colorado↗
USGS2019

Clustering and ensembling approaches to support surrogate-based species management

Aim Surrogate species can provide an efficient mechanism for biodiversity conservation if they encompass the needs or indicate the status of a broader set of species. When species that are the focus of ongoing management efforts act as effective surrogates for other species, these incidental surrogacy benefits lead to additional efficiency. Assessing surrogate relationships often relies on grouping species by distributional patterns or by species traits, but there are few approaches for integrating outputs from multiple methods into summaries of surrogate relationships that can inform decision‐making. Location Prairie Pothole Region of the United States. Methods We evaluated how well five upland‐nesting waterfowl species that are a focus of management may act as surrogates for other wetland‐dependent birds. We grouped species by their patterns of relative abundance at multiple scales and by different sets of traits, and evaluated whether empirical validation could effectively select among the resulting species groupings. We used an ensemble approach to integrate the different estimated relationships among species and visualized the ensemble as a network diagram. Results Estimated relationships among species were sensitive to methodological decisions, with qualitatively different relationships arising from different approaches. An ensemble provided an effective tool for integrating across different estimates and highlighted the Sora ( Porzana carolina ), American Avocet ( Recurvirostra Americana ) and Black Tern ( Chlidonias niger ) as the non‐waterfowl species expected to show the strongest incidental surrogacy relationships with the waterfowl that are the focus of ongoing management. Main conclusions An ensemble approach integrated multiple estimates of surrogate relationship strength among species and allowed for intuitive visualizations within a network. By accounting for methodological uncertainty while providing a simple continuous metric of surrogacy, our approach is amenable to both further validation and integration into decision‐making.

Alberta, Iowa, Manitoba, Minnesota, Montana, North↗
USGS2019

Quantifying ecological integrity of terrestrial systems to inform management of multiple-use public lands in the United States

The concept of ecological integrity has been applied widely to management of aquatic systems, but still is considered by many to be too vague and difficult to quantify to be useful for managing terrestrial systems, particularly across broad areas. Extensive public lands in the western United States are managed for diverse uses such as timber harvest, livestock grazing, energy development, and wildlife conservation, some of which may degrade ecological integrity. We propose a method for assessing ecological integrity on multiple-use lands that identifies the components of integrity and levels in the ecological hierarchy where the assessment will focus, and considers existing policies and management objectives. Both natural reference and societally desired environmental conditions are relevant comparison points. We applied the method to evaluate the ecological integrity of shrublands in Nevada, yielding an assessment based on six indicators of ecosystem structure, function, and composition, including resource- and stressor-based indicators measured at multiple scales. Results varied spatially and among indicators. Invasive plant cover and surface development were highest in shrublands in northwest and southeast Nevada. Departure from reference conditions of shrubland area, composition, patch size, and connectivity was highest in central and northern Nevada. Results may inform efforts to control invasive species and restore shrublands on federal lands in Nevada. We suggest that ecological integrity assessments for multiple-use lands be grounded in existing policies and monitoring programs, incorporate resource- and stressor-based metrics, rely on publicly available data collected at multiple spatial scales, and quantify both natural reference and societally desired resource conditions.

Nevada↗
USGS2018

Preparing for an uncertain future: Migrating shorebird response to past climatic fluctuations in the Prairie Potholes

The Prairie Pothole Region, situated in the northern Great Plains, provides important stopover habitat for migratory shorebirds. During spring migration in the U.S. Prairie Potholes, 7.3 million shorebirds refuel in the region's myriad small, freshwater wetlands. Shorebirds use mudflats, shorelines, and ephemeral wetlands that are far more abundant in wet years than dry years. Generally, climate change is expected to bring warmer temperatures, seasonality shifts, more extreme events, and changes to precipitation. The impacts to wetland habitats are uncertain. In the Prairie Potholes, earlier spring onset and warmer temperatures may advance drying of wetlands or, alternately, increased spring precipitation may produce abundant shallow‐water habitats. To look at the availability of habitats for migratory shorebirds under different climate regimes, we compared habitat selection between a historic wet year and a dry year using binomial random‐effects models to describe local and landscape patterns. We found that in the dry year shorebirds were distributed more northerly and among more permanent wetlands, whereas in the wet year shorebirds were distributed more southerly and among more temporary wetlands. However, landscape‐scale variation played a larger role in the dry year. At the local wetland scale, shorebirds selected similarly between years—for shallower wetlands and wetlands in croplands. Overall, while shorebirds were sensitive to local habitat conditions, they exhibited a degree of adaptive capacity to climate change impacts by their ability to shift on the landscape. This indicates an avenue through which management decisions can enhance climate change resilience for these species given an uncertain future—by preserving shallow‐water wetlands in croplands throughout the landscape.

Prairie Pothole Region↗
USGS2017

Projecting species’ vulnerability to climate change: Which uncertainty sources matter most and extrapolate best?

Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used to assess potential climate change impacts on biodiversity, but several critical methodological decisions are often made arbitrarily. We compare variability arising from these decisions to the uncertainty in future climate change itself. We also test whether certain choices offer improved skill for extrapolating to a changed climate and whether internal cross-validation skill indicates extrapolative skill. We compared projected vulnerability for 29 wetland-dependent bird species breeding in the climatically dynamic Prairie Pothole Region, USA. For each species we built 1,080 SDMs to represent a unique combination of: future climate, class of climate covariates, collinearity level, and thresholding procedure. We examined the variation in projected vulnerability attributed to each uncertainty source. To assess extrapolation skill under a changed climate, we compared model predictions with observations from historic drought years. Uncertainty in projected vulnerability was substantial, and the largest source was that of future climate change. Large uncertainty was also attributed to climate covariate class with hydrological covariates projecting half the range loss of bioclimatic covariates or other summaries of temperature and precipitation. We found that choices based on performance in cross-validation improved skill in extrapolation. Qualitative rankings were also highly uncertain. Given uncertainty in projected vulnerability and resulting uncertainty in rankings used for conservation prioritization, a number of considerations appear critical for using bioclimatic SDMs to inform climate change mitigation strategies. Our results emphasize explicitly selecting climate summaries that most closely represent processes likely to underlie ecological response to climate change. For example, hydrological covariates projected substantially reduced vulnerability, highlighting the importance of considering whether water availability may be a more proximal driver than precipitation. However, because cross-validation results were correlated with extrapolation results, the use of cross-validation performance metrics to guide modeling choices where knowledge is limited was supported.

Prairie Pothole Region↗
USGS2017

Logistic quantile regression provides improved estimates for bounded avian counts: A case study of California Spotted Owl fledgling production

Counts of avian fledglings, nestlings, or clutch size that are bounded below by zero and above by some small integer form a discrete random variable distribution that is not approximated well by conventional parametric count distributions such as the Poisson or negative binomial. We developed a logistic quantile regression model to provide estimates of the empirical conditional distribution of a bounded discrete random variable. The logistic quantile regression model requires that counts are randomly jittered to a continuous random variable, logit transformed to bound them between specified lower and upper values, then estimated in conventional linear quantile regression, repeating the 3 steps and averaging estimates. Back-transformation to the original discrete scale relies on the fact that quantiles are equivariant to monotonic transformations. We demonstrate this statistical procedure by modeling 20 years of California Spotted Owl fledgling production (0−3 per territory) on the Lassen National Forest, California, USA, as related to climate, demographic, and landscape habitat characteristics at territories. Spotted Owl fledgling counts increased nonlinearly with decreasing precipitation in the early nesting period, in the winter prior to nesting, and in the prior growing season; with increasing minimum temperatures in the early nesting period; with adult compared to subadult parents; when there was no fledgling production in the prior year; and when percentage of the landscape surrounding nesting sites (202 ha) with trees ≥25 m height increased. Changes in production were primarily driven by changes in the proportion of territories with 2 or 3 fledglings. Average variances of the discrete cumulative distributions of the estimated fledgling counts indicated that temporal changes in climate and parent age class explained 18% of the annual variance in owl fledgling production, which was 34% of the total variance. Prior fledgling production explained as much of the variance in the fledgling counts as climate, parent age class, and landscape habitat predictors. Our logistic quantile regression model can be used for any discrete response variables with fixed upper and lower bounds.

The Auk↗
USGS2017

No substitute for survival: Perturbation analyses using a Golden Eagle population model reveal limits to managing for take

Conserving populations of long-lived birds of prey, characterized by a slow life-history (e.g., high survival and low reproductive output), requires a thorough understanding of how variation in their vital rates differentially affects population growth. Stochastic population modeling provides a framework for exploring variation in complex life histories to better understand how environmental and demographic variation within individual vital rates affects population dynamics. Specifically, we used life-stage simulation analysis (LSA) to identify those life-history characteristics that most affect population growth and are amenable to management actions. The Golden Eagle ( Aquila chrysaetos ) is a wide-ranging raptor of conservation concern, which has been adopted as a focal species for conservation planning. Golden Eagle population trends in western North America currently appear stable. Yet an expanding human footprint that may increase mortality stimulated our investigation into the ability of populations to sustain reduced survival. We fit mixed-effects models to published estimates of vital rates to estimate the mean and process variation of productivity (young fledged per pair) and survival for use in a LSA framework. As expected, breeding adult survival had the greatest relative effect on population growth, though productivity explained the most variation in growth. Based on perturbation analyses, we demonstrate that even minor reductions in breeding adult survival (<4.5%) caused otherwise stable populations to decline. Despite its importance, precise estimates of spatial and temporal variation in breeding adult survival are poorly documented. Importantly, we found that the ability for increases in reproductive output to compensate for decreased survival was very limited. To maintain stable populations, declines in survival >4% required increases in productivity that generally exceed the evolutionary potential for Golden Eagles. Our findings support the current U.S. Fish and Wildlife conservation strategy which mitigates eagle “take” via efforts to reduce mortality elsewhere.

Journal of Raptor Research↗
USGS2016

Potential trophic cascades triggered by the barred owl range expansion

Recently, the barred owl ( Strix varia ) has expanded its range into the Pacific Northwest of the United States resulting in pronounced effects on the demography and behavior of the northern spotted owl ( S. occidentalis caurina ). The range expansion has brought together historically allopatric species, creating the potential for significant changes in the avian predator community with possible cascading effects on food-web dynamics. The adverse effects of the barred owl on the behavior and demography of the northern spotted owl are well-documented, but little is known about the immediate and long-term effects changes in the predator community may have on native species composition and ecosystem processes. Based on northern spotted owl and barred owl selection for diet and habitat resources, there is a potential for trophic cascades within the region's predator and prey communities, differing responses by their shared and unique prey species, and possible direct and indirect effects on ecosystem processes. We explored the possible ecological consequences of the barred owl range expansion to wildlife communities of the Pacific Northwest based on the theoretical underpinnings of predator–prey relationships, interspecific competition, intraguild predation, and potential cascading trophic interactions. Negative effects on fitness of northern spotted owls because of interspecific competition with barred owls are strong selection forces that may contribute to the regional extinction of the northern spotted owl. In addition, we posit that shared prey species and those uniquely consumed by barred owls, along with other competing native predators, may experience changes in behavior, abundance, and distribution as a result of increased rates of predation by rapidly expanding populations of barred owls.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗
USGS2016

Projected wetland densities under climate change: Habitat loss but little geographic shift in conservation strategy

Climate change poses major challenges for conservation and management because it alters the area, quality, and spatial distribution of habitat for natural populations. To assess species’ vulnerability to climate change and target ongoing conservation investments, researchers and managers often consider the effects of projected changes in climate and land use on future habitat availability and quality and the uncertainty associated with these projections. Here, we draw on tools from hydrology and climate science to project the impact of climate change on the density of wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of the USA, a critical area for breeding waterfowl and other wetland-dependent species. We evaluate the potential for a trade-off in the value of conservation investments under current and future climatic conditions and consider the joint effects of climate and land use. We use an integrated set of hydrological and climatological projections that provide physically based measures of water balance under historical and projected future climatic conditions. In addition, we use historical projections derived from ten general circulation models (GCMs) as a baseline from which to assess climate change impacts, rather than historical climate data. This method isolates the impact of greenhouse gas emissions and ensures that modeling errors are incorporated into the baseline rather than attributed to climate change. Our work shows that, on average, densities of wetlands (here defined as wetland basins holding water) are projected to decline across the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region, but that GCMs differ in both the magnitude and the direction of projected impacts. However, we found little evidence for a shift in the locations expected to provide the highest wetland densities under current vs. projected climatic conditions. This result was robust to the inclusion of projected changes in land use under climate change. We suggest that targeting conservation towards wetland complexes containing both small and relatively large wetland basins, which is an ongoing conservation strategy, may also act to hedge against uncertainty in the effects of climate change.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota↗
USGS2014

Vulnerability of breeding waterbirds to climate change in the Prairie Pothole Region, U.S.A.

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the north-central U.S. and south-central Canada contains millions of small prairie wetlands that provide critical habitat to many migrating and breeding waterbirds. Due to their small size and the relatively dry climate of the region, these wetlands are considered at high risk for negative climate change effects as temperatures increase. To estimate the potential impacts of climate change on breeding waterbirds, we predicted current and future distributions of species common in the PPR using species distribution models (SDMs). We created regional-scale SDMs for the U.S. PPR using Breeding Bird Survey occurrence records for 1971&ndash;2011 and wetland, upland, and climate variables. For each species, we predicted current distribution based on climate records for 1981&ndash;2000 and projected future distributions to climate scenarios for 2040&ndash;2049. Species were projected to, on average, lose almost half their current habitat (-46%). However, individual species projections varied widely, from +8% (Upland Sandpiper) to -100% (Wilson's Snipe). Variable importance ranks indicated that land cover (wetland and upland) variables were generally more important than climate variables in predicting species distributions. However, climate variables were relatively more important during a drought period. Projected distributions of species responses to climate change contracted within current areas of distribution rather than shifting. Given the large variation in species-level impacts, we suggest that climate change mitigation efforts focus on species projected to be the most vulnerable by enacting targeted wetland management, easement acquisition, and restoration efforts.

Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota↗
USGS2011

Top 40 priorities for science to inform conservation and management policy in the United States

To maximize the utility of research to decisionmaking, especially given limited financial resources, scientists must set priorities for their efforts. We present a list of the top 40 high-priority, multidisciplinary research questions directed toward informing some of the most important current and future decisions about management of species, communities, and ecological processes in the United States. The questions were generated by an open, inclusive process that included personal interviews with decisionmakers, broad solicitation of research needs from scientists and policymakers, and an intensive workshop that included scientifically oriented individuals responsible for managing and developing policy related to natural resources. The process differed from previous efforts to set priorities for conservation research in its focus on the engagement of decisionmakers in addition to researchers. The research priorities emphasized the importance of addressing societal context and exploration of trade-offs among alternative policies and actions, as well as more traditional questions related to ecological processes and functions.

BioScience↗
USGS2005

An evaluation of weather and disease as causes of decline in two populations of boreal toads

Two populations of boreal toads ( Bufo boreas ) experienced drastic declines in abundance in the late 1990s. Evidence supported the hypothesis of disease (the chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis ) as the cause of these declines, but other hypotheses had not been evaluated. We used an 11-year capture–recapture data set to evaluate weather and disease as causes of these declines. We developed sets of mathematical models that reflected hypothesized relationships between several weather variables and annual survival rates of adult males in these populations. In addition, models that reflected the possibility that the declines were caused by an introduced fungus were developed. All models were fit to the data and were evaluated using a model selection criterion (QAIC c ). Our analysis provided strong support for the hypothesis of an introduced fungus and little support for the hypothesis that weather conditions caused the declines. Our results also suggest a strong, negative “marking effect” on survival rates of boreal toads. Model-averaged estimates of survival rate are presented.

Ecological Applications↗