Geology topics

Ashley K. Elgin

Publications and source records attributed to Ashley K. Elgin.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2024

Predicting Lake Huron Dreissena spp. spatial distribution patterns from environmental characteristics

Invasive dreissenid mussels ( Dreissena polymorpha and Dreissena rostriformis bugensis ) have altered Great Lakes ecosystems through a multitude of effects on benthic habitats, food web structure, and nutrient cycling. This study explores whether spatially continuous geographic data of environmental factors can be utilized to predict Dreissena spp. spatial distributions on a lake-wide scale. Categorical variables were also assessed for significant relationships with Dreissena spp. biomass. Point observations from the 2017 Lake Huron benthic survey under the Cooperative Science and Monitoring Initiative (CSMI) were utilized for in situ measurements of dreissenid presence and biomass at 119 sites across Lake Huron. Basin, bathymetric zone, and tributary influence were found to have statistically significant relationships to dreissenid biomass. A boosted regression tree (BRT) model (ROC score 0.707) was developed to spatially predict dreissenid presence probability across Lake Huron from six environmental explanatory variables: April, May, and October chlorophyll, June dissolved organic carbon, January bottom temperature, and May bottom temperature. The importance of food availability and bottom temperature illuminated relationships between dreissenid mussels and periods of benthic-pelagic mixing in the spring and fall seasons. Future models could be improved through advancements in survey technology for improved geographic characterization of mussel habitat characteristics and environmental constraints.

Lake Huron↗

USGS2020

Long-term trends of Lake Michigan benthos with emphasis on the southern basin

Lake Michigan benthic macrofauna have been studied for almost a century, allowing for a unique analysis of long-term changes in community structure. We examined changes in abundances of three major taxonomic groups of benthic macroinvertebrates (Diporeia, Oligochaeta, and Sphaeriidae) in southern Lake Michigan from 1931-2015, and identified the most likely causes for these changes. Abundances of all three groups increased during 1931-1980, with the bulk of these increases occurring in nearshore (≤ 50 m) waters and coincident with increasing loading of phosphorus (P) to the lake. Abundances of all three taxa declined during 1980-2000 again mostly in nearshore waters and coincident with decreased P loading. The quagga mussel (Dreissena rostriformis bugensis) invasion was associated with a further decline in phytoplankton primary production during 2000-2015. Both Diporeia and Sphaeriidae declined in abundance during that time, with Diporeia exhibiting the more pronounced decrease of the two groups. In contrast, Oligochaeta increased in abundance during 2000-2015. The quagga mussel has become, by far, the most abundant benthic macroinvertebrate species in terms of density and biomass. Overall, the primary driver of changes in the abundances of the three major taxa during this 85-year period appeared to be changes in phytoplankton primary production due to changing P loadings and, later in the time series, Dreissena filtering. The dreissenid mussel invasions coincided with a rapid decline of Diporeia abundance, but the mechanism of this negative effect remains unidentified. In contrast, Oligochaeta likely benefitted from the quagga mussel invasion; perhaps via quagga-generated food supplies.

Lake Michigan↗

USGS2019

Evaluating consumptive and nonconsumptive predator effects on prey density using field times series data

Determining the degree to which predation affects prey abundance in natural communities constitutes a key goal of ecological research. Predators can affect prey through both consumptive effects (CEs) and nonconsumptive effects (NCEs), although the contributions of each mechanism to the density of prey populations remain largely hypothetical in most systems. Common statistical methods applied to time series data cannot elucidate the mechanisms responsible for hypothesized predator effects on prey density (e.g., differentiate CEs from NCEs), nor provide parameters for predictive models. State space models (SSMs) applied to time series data offer a way to meet these goals. Here, we employ SSMs to assess effects of an invasive predatory zooplankter, Bythotrephes longimanus, on an important prey species, Daphnia mendotae, in Lake Michigan. We fit mechanistic models in a SSM framework to seasonal time series (1994-2012) using a recently developed, maximum likelihood-based optimization method, iterated filtering, which can overcome challenges in ecological data (e.g. nonlinearities, measurement error, and irregular sampling intervals). Our results indicate that B. longimanus strongly influences D. mendotae dynamics, with mean annual peak densities of B. longimanus observed in Lake Michigan estimated to cause a 61% reduction in D. mendotae population growth rate and a 59% reduction in peak biomass density. Further, the observed B. longimanus effect is most consistent with an NCE via reduced birth rates. The SSM approach also provided estimates for key biological parameters (e.g., demographic rates) and the contribution of dynamic stochasticity and measurement error. Our study therefore provides evidence derived directly from survey data that the invasive zooplankter B. longimanus is affecting zooplankton demographics and offer parameter estimates needed to inform predictive models that explore the effect of B. longimanus under different scenarios such as climate change.

Ecology↗

USGS2019

Spatiotemporal variability in energetic condition of alewife and round goby in Lake Michigan

Pelagic-oriented alewife ( Alosa pseudoharengus ) and benthic-oriented round goby ( Neogobius melanostomus ) are two important prey fishes in the Laurentian Great Lakes. In 2015, we evaluated their seasonal total energy (TE) across nine Lake Michigan transects. Round goby contained at least 48% more kilojoules of TE than alewife of equal length during spring and summer. TE varied spatially for both species, but only large alewife exhibited a consistent pattern, with higher values along the eastern shoreline. Variation in TE was not explained by site-specific prey densities for either species. Round goby energy density (ED) was higher in Lake Michigan than in central Lake Erie, but comparable to other regions of the Great Lakes. Alewife ED in 2015 was similar to that in 2002–2004 in Lake Michigan, with the exception of November (small alewife ED was 21% higher) and April (large alewife ED was 30% lower). Despite oligotrophication, our study suggests that starvation of juvenile and adults has not been directly contributing to overall declining prey fish abundance, although future research should evaluate the potential for overwinter starvation.

Lake Michigan↗