Search USGS⌕ Search

Geology topics

Arthur Frankel

Publications and source records attributed to Arthur Frankel.

10 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2014

Three-dimensional ground-motion simulations of earthquakes for the Hanford area, Washington

This report describes the results of ground-motion simulations of earthquakes using three-dimensional (3D) and one-dimensional (1D) crustal models conducted for the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) of the Hanford facility, Washington, under the Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) guidelines. The first portion of this report demonstrates that the 3D seismic velocity model for the area produces synthetic seismograms with characteristics (spectral response values, duration) that better match those of the observed recordings of local earthquakes, compared to a 1D model with horizontal layers. The second part of the report compares the response spectra of synthetics from 3D and 1D models for moment magnitude (M) 6.6–6.8 earthquakes on three nearby faults and for a dipping plane wave source meant to approximate regional S-waves from a Cascadia great earthquake. The 1D models are specific to each site used for the PSHA. The use of the 3D model produces spectral response accelerations at periods of 0.5–2.0 seconds as much as a factor of 4.5 greater than those from the 1D models for the crustal fault sources. The spectral accelerations of the 3D synthetics for the Cascadia plane-wave source are as much as a factor of 9 greater than those from the 1D models. The differences between the spectral accelerations for the 3D and 1D models are most pronounced for sites with thicker supra-basalt sediments and for stations with earthquakes on the Rattlesnake Hills fault and for the Cascadia plane-wave source.

Washington↗
USGS2012

Significant motions between GPS sites in the New Madrid region: implications for seismic hazard

Position time series from Global Positioning System (GPS) stations in the New Madrid region were differenced to determine the relative motions between stations. Uncertainties in rates were estimated using a three‐component noise model consisting of white, flicker, and random walk noise, following the methodology of Langbein, 2004. Significant motions of 0.37±0.07 (one standard error) mm/yr were found between sites PTGV and STLE, for which the baseline crosses the inferred deep portion of the Reelfoot fault. Baselines between STLE and three other sites also show significant motion. Site MCTY (adjacent to STLE) also exhibits significant motion with respect to PTGV. These motions are consistent with a model of interseismic slip of about 4 mm/yr on the Reelfoot fault at depths between 12 and 20 km. If constant over time, this rate of slip produces sufficient slip for an M 7.3 earthquake on the shallow portion of the Reelfoot fault, using the geologically derived recurrence time of 500 years. This model assumes that the shallow portion of the fault has been previously loaded by the intraplate stress. A GPS site near Little Rock, Arkansas, shows significant southward motion of 0.3–0.4 mm/yr (±0.08 mm/yr) relative to three sites to the north, indicating strain consistent with focal mechanisms of earthquake swarms in northern Arkansas.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2011

Seismic hazard maps for Haiti

We have produced probabilistic seismic hazard maps of Haiti for peak ground acceleration and response spectral accelerations that include the hazard from the major crustal faults, subduction zones, and background earthquakes. The hazard from the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden, Septentrional, and Matheux-Neiba fault zones was estimated using fault slip rates determined from GPS measurements. The hazard from the subduction zones along the northern and southeastern coasts of Hispaniola was calculated from slip rates derived from GPS data and the overall plate motion. Hazard maps were made for a firm-rock site condition and for a grid of shallow shear-wave velocities estimated from topographic slope. The maps show substantial hazard throughout Haiti, with the highest hazard in Haiti along the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden and Septentrional fault zones. The Matheux-Neiba Fault exhibits high hazard in the maps for 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, although its slip rate is poorly constrained.

Earthquake Spectra↗
USGS2011

Model and parametric uncertainty in source-based kinematic models of earthquake ground motion

Four independent ground-motion simulation codes are used to model the strong ground motion for three earthquakes: 1994 M w 6.7 Northridge, 1989 M w 6.9 Loma Prieta, and 1999 M w 7.5 Izmit. These 12 sets of synthetics are used to make estimates of the variability in ground-motion predictions. In addition, ground-motion predictions over a grid of sites are used to estimate parametric uncertainty for changes in rupture velocity. We find that the combined model uncertainty and random variability of the simulations is in the same range as the variability of regional empirical ground-motion data sets. The majority of the standard deviations lie between 0.5 and 0.7 natural-log units for response spectra and 0.5 and 0.8 for Fourier spectra. The estimate of model epistemic uncertainty, based on the different model predictions, lies between 0.2 and 0.4, which is about one-half of the estimates for the standard deviation of the combined model uncertainty and random variability. Parametric uncertainty, based on variation of just the average rupture velocity, is shown to be consistent in amplitude with previous estimates, showing percentage changes in ground motion from 50% to 300% when rupture velocity changes from 2.5 to 2.9 km/s. In addition, there is some evidence that mean biases can be reduced by averaging ground-motion estimates from different methods.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2010

Documentation for initial seismic hazard maps for Haiti

In response to the urgent need for earthquake-hazard information after the tragic disaster caused by the moment magnitude (M) 7.0 January 12, 2010, earthquake, we have constructed initial probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Haiti. These maps are based on the current information we have on fault slip rates and historical and instrumental seismicity. These initial maps will be revised and improved as more data become available. In the short term, more extensive logic trees will be developed to better capture the uncertainty in key parameters. In the longer term, we will incorporate new information on fault parameters and previous large earthquakes obtained from geologic fieldwork. These seismic hazard maps are important for the management of the current crisis and the development of building codes and standards for the rebuilding effort. The boundary between the Caribbean and North American Plates in the Hispaniola region is a complex zone of deformation. The highly oblique ~20 mm/yr convergence between the two plates (DeMets and others, 2000) is partitioned between subduction zones off of the northern and southeastern coasts of Hispaniola and strike-slip faults that transect the northern and southern portions of the island. There are also thrust faults within the island that reflect the compressional component of motion caused by the geometry of the plate boundary. We follow the general methodology developed for the 1996 U.S. national seismic hazard maps and also as implemented in the 2002 and 2008 updates. This procedure consists of adding the seismic hazard calculated from crustal faults, subduction zones, and spatially smoothed seismicity for shallow earthquakes and Wadati-Benioff-zone earthquakes. Each one of these source classes will be described below. The lack of information on faults in Haiti requires many assumptions to be made. These assumptions will need to be revisited and reevaluated as more fieldwork and research are accomplished. We made two sets of maps using different assumptions about site conditions. One set of maps is for a firm-rock site condition (30-m averaged shear-wave velocity, Vs30, of 760 m/s). We also developed hazard maps that contain site amplification based on a grid of Vs30 values estimated from topographic slope. These maps take into account amplification from soils. We stress that these new maps are designed to quantify the hazard for Haiti; they do not consider all the sources of earthquake hazard that affect the Dominican Republic and therefore should not be considered as complete hazard maps for eastern Hispaniola. For example, we have not included hazard from earthquakes in the Mona Passage nor from large earthquakes on the subduction zone interface north of Puerto Rico. Furthermore, they do not capture all the earthquake hazards for eastern Cuba.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2009

Sedimentary basin effects in Seattle, Washington: Ground-motion observations and 3D simulations

Seismograms of local earthquakes recorded in Seattle exhibit surface waves in the Seattle basin and basin-edge focusing of S waves. Spectral ratios of Swaves and later arrivals at 1 Hz for stiff-soil sites in the Seattle basin show a dependence on the direction to the earthquake, with earthquakes to the south and southwest producing higher average amplification. Earthquakes to the southwest typically produce larger basin surface waves relative to S waves than earthquakes to the north and northwest, probably because of the velocity contrast across the Seattle fault along the southern margin of the Seattle basin. S to P conversions are observed for some events and are likely converted at the bottom of the Seattle basin. We model five earthquakes, including the M 6.8 Nisqually earthquake, using 3D finite-difference simulations accurate up to 1 Hz. The simulations reproduce the observed dependence of amplification on the direction to the earthquake. The simulations generally match the timing and character of basin surface waves observed for many events. The 3D simulation for the Nisqually earth-quake produces focusing of S waves along the southern margin of the Seattle basin near the area in west Seattle that experienced increased chimney damage from the earthquake, similar to the results of the higher-frequency 2D simulation reported by Stephenson et al. (2006). Waveforms from the 3D simulations show reasonable agreement with the data at low frequencies (0.2-0.4 Hz) for the Nisqually earthquake and an M 4.8 deep earthquake west of Seattle.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2008

Calculation of the rate of M≥6.5 earthquakes for California and adjacent portions of Nevada and Mexico

One of the key issues in the development of an earthquake recurrence model for California and adjacent portions of Nevada and Mexico is the comparison of the predicted rates of earthquakes with the observed rates. Therefore, it is important to make an accurate determination of the observed rate of M>6.5 earthquakes in California and the adjacent region. We have developed a procedure to calculate observed earthquake rates from an earthquake catalog, accounting for magnitude uncertainty and magnitude rounding. We present a Bayesian method that corrects for the effect of the magnitude uncertainty in calculating the observed rates. Our recommended determination of the observed rate of M>6.5 in this region is 0.246 ± 0.085 (for two sigma) per year, although this rate is likely to be underestimated because of catalog incompleteness and this uncertainty estimate does not include all sources of uncertainty.

California, Nevada↗
USGS1994

Implications of felt area-magnitude relations for earthquake scaling and the average frequency of perceptible ground motion

Observed relations between felt area and moment magnitude M for stable continental regions ( SCR ) and California earthquakes can be explained by a simple model with geometrical spreading, attenuation ( Q −1 ), and earthquake stress drops that remain constant from M 4 to 8. Differences in the slopes of the observed felt area- M relations between SCR and California earthquakes are consistent with differences in Q between these tectonic settings. Fitting the felt area- M data to the model yields an estimate of f/Q , where f is the average frequency of minimum perceptible ground motion. Using fits to the data and instrumentally derived values of Q , I find that f is between about 2 and 4 Hz. I present an estimate of the spectral acceleration level associated with the lower limit of perceptibility.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS1994

Dense array recordings in the San Bernardino Valley of landers-big bear aftershocks: Basin surface waves, Moho reflections, and three-dimensional simulations

Fourteen GEOS seismic recorders were deployed in the San Bernardino Valley to study the propagation of short-period ( T ≈ 1 to 3 sec) surface waves and Moho reflections. Three dense arrays were used to determine the direction and speed of propagation of arrivals in the seismograms. The seismograms for a shallow ( d ≈ 1 km) M 4.9 aftershock of the Big Bear earthquake exhibit a very long duration (60 sec) of sustained shaking at periods of about 2 sec. Array analysis indicates that these late arrivals are dominated by surface waves traveling in various directions across the Valley. Some energy is arriving from a direction 180° from the epicenter and was apparently reflected from the edge of the Valley opposite the source. A close-in aftershock (Δ = 25 km, depth = 7 km) displays substantial short-period surface waves at deep-soil sites. A three-dimensional (3D) finite difference simulation produces synthetic seismograms with durations similar to those of the observed records for this event, indicating the importance of S -wave to surface-wave conversion near the edge of the basin. Flat-layered models severely underpredict the duration and spectral amplification of this deep-soil site. I show an example where the coda wave amplitude ratio at 1 to 2 Hz between a deep-soil and a rock site does not equal the S -wave amplitude ratio, because of the presence of surface waves in the coda of the deep-soil site. For one of the events studied (Δ ≈ 90 km), there are sizable phases that are critically reflected from the Moho ( PmP and SmS ). At one of the rock sites, the SmS phase has a more peaked spectrum that the direct S wave.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗