Geology topics

Antti Pulkkinen

Publications and source records attributed to Antti Pulkkinen.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2017

Methodology for time-domain estimation of storm time geoelectric fields using the 3-D magnetotelluric response tensors

Geoelectric fields at the Earth's surface caused by magnetic storms constitute a hazard to the operation of electric power grids and related infrastructure. The ability to estimate these geoelectric fields in close to real time and provide local predictions would better equip the industry to mitigate negative impacts on their operations. Here we report progress toward this goal: development of robust algorithms that convolve a magnetic storm time series with a frequency domain impedance for a realistic three-dimensional (3-D) Earth, to estimate the local, storm time geoelectric field. Both frequency domain and time domain approaches are presented and validated against storm time geoelectric field data measured in Japan. The methods are then compared in the context of a real-time application.

Space Weather↗

USGS2017

Geomagnetically induced currents: Science, engineering, and applications readiness

This paper is the primary deliverable of the very first NASA Living With a Star Institute Working Group, Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC) Working Group. The paper provides a broad overview of the current status and future challenges pertaining to the science, engineering, and applications of the GIC problem. Science is understood here as the basic space and Earth sciences research that allows improved understanding and physics-based modeling of the physical processes behind GIC. Engineering, in turn, is understood here as the “impact” aspect of GIC. Applications are understood as the models, tools, and activities that can provide actionable information to entities such as power systems operators for mitigating the effects of GIC and government agencies for managing any potential consequences from GIC impact to critical infrastructure. Applications can be considered the ultimate goal of our GIC work. In assessing the status of the field, we quantify the readiness of various applications in the mitigation context. We use the Applications Readiness Level (ARL) concept to carry out the quantification.

Space Weather↗

USGS2016

Geoelectric hazard maps for the continental United States

In support of a multiagency project for assessing induction hazards, we present maps of extreme-value geoelectric amplitudes over about half of the continental United States. These maps are constructed using a parameterization of induction: estimates of Earth surface impedance, obtained at discrete geographic sites from magnetotelluric survey data, are convolved with latitude-dependent statistical maps of extreme-value geomagnetic activity, obtained from decades of magnetic observatory data. Geoelectric amplitudes are estimated for geomagnetic waveforms having 240 s sinusoidal period and amplitudes over 10 min that exceed a once-per-century threshold. As a result of the combination of geographic differences in geomagnetic activity and Earth surface impedance, once-per-century geoelectric amplitudes span more than 2 orders of magnitude and are an intricate function of location. For north-south induction, once-per-century geoelectric amplitudes across large parts of the United States have a median value of 0.26 V/km; for east-west geomagnetic variation the median value is 0.23 V/km. At some locations, once-per-century geoelectric amplitudes exceed 3 V/km.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2016

Global statistical maps of extreme-event magnetic observatory 1 min first differences in horizontal intensity

Analysis is made of the long-term statistics of three different measures of ground level, storm time geomagnetic activity: instantaneous 1 min first differences in horizontal intensity Δ B h , the root-mean-square of 10 consecutive 1 min differences S , and the ramp change R over 10 min. Geomagnetic latitude maps of the cumulative exceedances of these three quantities are constructed, giving the threshold (nT/min) for which activity within a 24 h period can be expected to occur once per year, decade, and century. Specifically, at geomagnetic 55°, we estimate once-per-century Δ B h , S , and R exceedances and a site-to-site, proportional, 1 standard deviation range [1 σ , lower and upper] to be, respectively, 1000, [690, 1450]; 500, [350, 720]; and 200, [140, 280] nT/min. At 40°, we estimate once-per-century Δ B h , S , and R exceedances and 1 σ values to be 200, [140, 290]; 100, [70, 140]; and 40, [30, 60] nT/min.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2015

On the lognormality of historical magnetic-storm intensity statistics: Implications for extreme-event probabilities

An examination is made of the hypothesis that the statistics of magnetic storm maximum intensities are the realization of a lognormal stochastic process. Weighted least squares and maximum likelihood methods are used to fit lognormal functions to − D s t storm time maxima for years 1957–2012; bootstrap analysis is used to established confidence limits on forecasts. Both methods provide fits that are reasonably consistent with the data; both methods also provide fits that are superior to those that can be made with a power‐law function. In general, the maximum likelihood method provides forecasts having tighter confidence intervals than those provided by weighted least squares. From extrapolation of maximum likelihood fits: a magnetic storm with intensity exceeding that of the 1859 Carrington event, − D s t ≥ 850 nT, occurs about 1.13 times per century and a wide 95% confidence interval of [0.42, 2.41] times per century; a 100 year magnetic storm is identified as having a − D s t ≥ 880 nT (greater than Carrington) but a wide 95% confidence interval of [490, 1187] nT.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2014

Magnetic storms and induction hazards

Magnetic storms are potentially hazardous to the activities and technological infrastructure of modern civilization. This reality was dramatically demonstrated during the great magnetic storm of March 1989, when surface geoelectric fields, produced by the interaction of the time-varying geomagnetic field with the Earth's electrically conducting interior, coupled onto the overlying Hydro-Québec electric power grid in Canada. Protective relays were tripped, the grid collapsed, and about 9 million people were temporarily left without electricity [ Bolduc , 2002].

Eos, Earth and Space Science News↗