Antonio Brum da Silveira

USGS2022

Structured elicitation of expert judgement in real-time eruption scenarios: An exercise for Piton de la Fournaise volcano, La Réunion island

Formalised elicitation of expert judgements has been used to help tackle several problematic societal issues, including volcanic crises and pandemic threats. We present an expert elicitation exercise for Piton de la Fournaise volcano, La Réunion island, held remotely in April 2021. This involved 28 experts from nine countries who considered a hypothetical effusive eruption crisis involving a new vent opening in a high-risk area. The tele-elicitation presented several challenges, but is a promising and workable option for application to future volcanic crises. Our exercise considered an “uncommon” eruptive scenario with a vent outside the present caldera and within inhabited areas, and provided uncertainty ranges for several hazard-related questions for such a scenario (e.g. probability of eruption within a defined timeframe; elapsed time until lava flow reaches a critical location, and other hazard management issues). Our exercise indicated that such a scenario would probably present very different characteristics compared to recent eruptions, and that it is fundamental to include well-prepared expert elicitations in updated civil protection evacuation plans to improve disaster response procedures.

Volcanica↗

USGS2015

The emergence of volcanic oceanic islands on a slow-moving plate: The example of Madeira Island, NE Atlantic

The transition from seamount to oceanic island typically involves surtseyan volcanism. However, the geological record at many islands in the NE Atlantic—all located within the slow-moving Nubian plate—does not exhibit evidence for an emergent surtseyan phase but rather an erosive unconformity between the submarine basement and the overlying subaerial shield sequences. This suggests that the transition between seamount and island may frequently occur by a relative fall of sea level through uplift, eustatic changes, or a combination of both, and may not involve summit volcanism. In this study, we explore the consequences for island evolutionary models using Madeira Island (Portugal) as a case study. We have examined the geologic record at Madeira using a combination of detailed fieldwork, biostratigraphy, and 40 Ar/ 39 Ar geochronology in order to document the mode, timing, and duration of edifice emergence above sea level. Our study confirms that Madeira's subaerial shield volcano was built upon the eroded remains of an uplifted seamount, with shallow marine sediments found between the two eruptive sequences and presently located at 320–430 m above sea level. This study reveals that Madeira emerged around 7.0–5.6 Ma essentially through an uplift process and before volcanic activity resumed to form the subaerial shield volcano. Basal intrusions are a likely uplift mechanism, and their emplacement is possibly enhanced by the slow motion of the Nubian plate relative to the source of partial melting. Alternating uplift and subsidence episodes suggest that island edifice growth may be governed by competing dominantly volcanic and dominantly intrusive processes.

Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems↗