Geology topics

Anthony D. Apa

Publications and source records attributed to Anthony D. Apa.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2023

Assimilating ecological theory with empiricism: Using constrained generalized additive models to enhance survival analyses

1. Integrating ecological theory with empirical methods is ubiquitous in ecology using hierarchical Bayesian models. However, there has been little development focused on integration of ecological theory into models for survival analysis. Survival is a fundamental process, linking individual fitness with population dynamics, but incorporating life history strategies to inform survival estimation can be challenging because mortality processes occur at multiple scales. 2. We develop an approach to survival analysis, incorporating model constraints based on a species' life history strategy using functional analytical tools. Specifically, we structurally separate intrinsic patterns of mortality that arise from age-specific processes (e.g. increasing survival during early life stages due to growth or maturation, versus senescence) from extrinsic mortality patterns that arise over different periods of time (e.g. seasonal temporal shifts). We use shape constrained generalized additive models (CGAMs) to obtain age-specific hazard functions that incorporate theoretical information based on classical survivorship curves into the age component of the model and capture extrinsic factors in the time component. 3. We compare the performance of our modelling approach to standard survival modelling tools that do not explicitly incorporate species life history strategy in the model structure, using metrics of predictive power, accuracy, efficiency and computation time. We applied these models to two case studies that reflect different functional shapes for the underlying survivorship curves, examining age-period survival for white-tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus in Wisconsin, USA and Columbian sharp-tailed grouse T ympanuchus phasianellus columbianus in Colorado, USA.

Colorado, Wisconsin↗

USGS2019

Extreme site fidelity as an optimal strategy in an unpredictable and homogeneous environment

1.Animal site fidelity structures space use, population demography and ultimately gene flow. Understanding the adaptive selection for site fidelity patterns provides a mechanistic understanding to both spatial and population processes. This can be achieved by linking space use with environmental variability (spatial and temporal) and demographic parameters. However, rarely is the environmental context that drives the selection for site fidelity behaviour fully considered. 2. We use ecological theory to understand whether the spatial and temporal variability in breeding site quality can explain the site fidelity behaviour and demographic patterns of Gunnison sage-grouse (Centrocercus minimus). We examined female site fidelity patterns across multiple spatial scales: proximity of consecutive year nest locations, space-use overlap within and across the breeding and brooding seasons, and fidelity to a breeding patch. We also examined the spatial and temporal variability in nest, chick, juvenile and adult survival. 3. We found Gunnison sage-grouse to be site faithful to their breeding patch, area of use within the patch and generally where they nest, suggesting an “Always Stay” site fidelity strategy. This is an optimal evolutionary strategy when site quality is unpredictable. Further, we found limited spatial variability in survival within age groups, suggesting little demographic benefit to moving among patches. We suggest Gunnison sage-grouse site fidelity is driven by the unpredictability of predation in a relatively homogeneous environment, the lack of benefits and likely costs to moving across landscape patches and leaving known lek and breeding/brooding areas. 4. Space use and demography are commonly studied separately. More so, site fidelity patterns are rarely framed in the context of ecological theory, beyond questions related to the win-stay:lose-switch rule. To move beyond describing patterns and understand the adaptive selection driving species movements and their demographic consequences require integrating movement, demography and environmental variability in a synthetic framework. 5. Site fidelity theory provides a coherent framework to simultaneously investigate the spatial and population ecology of animal populations. Using it to frame ecological questions will lead to a more mechanistic understanding of animal movement, spatial population structuring and meta-population dynamics.

Colorado↗

USGS2019

Evaluation of genetic change from translocation among Gunnison Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus minimus) populations

Maintenance of genetic diversity is important for conserving species, especially those with fragmented habitats or ranges. In the absence of natural dispersal, translocation can be used to achieve this goal, although the success of translocation can be difficult to measure. Here we evaluate genetic change following translocation in Gunnison Sage-Grouse ( Centrocercus minimus ), a species reduced to 7 discrete populations with low levels of gene flow and high levels of genetic differentiation. Between 2000 and 2014, 306 birds from the largest and most genetically diverse population (Gunnison Basin) were translocated to 5 much smaller satellite populations to augment local population size and increase genetic diversity. Although the magnitude of the effect varied by population, we found evidence of increased genetic variation, decreased genetic differentiation from Gunnison Basin, and reproduction between translocated individuals and resident birds. These results suggest that translocations are impacting satellite populations, with current data providing a new baseline for genetic diversity among populations of this imperiled species.

Colorado, Utah↗

USGS2018

Accounting for location uncertainty in azimuthaltelemetry data improves ecological inference

Background Characterizing animal space use is critical for understanding ecological relationships. Animal telemetry technology has revolutionized the fields of ecology and conservation biology by providing high quality spatial data on animal movement. Radio-telemetry with very high frequency (VHF) radio signals continues to be a useful technology because of its low cost, miniaturization, and low battery requirements. Despite a number of statistical developments synthetically integrating animal location estimation and uncertainty with spatial process models using satellite telemetry data, we are unaware of similar developments for azimuthal telemetry data. As such, there are few statistical options to handle these unique data and no synthetic framework for modeling animal location uncertainty and accounting for it in ecological models. We developed a hierarchical modeling framework to provide robust animal location estimates from one or more intersecting or non-intersecting azimuths. We used our azimuthal telemetry model (ATM) to account for azimuthal uncertainty with covariates and propagate location uncertainty into spatial ecological models. We evaluate the ATM with commonly used estimators (Lenth (1981) maximum likelihood and M-Estimators) using simulation. We also provide illustrative empirical examples, demonstrating the impact of ignoring location uncertainty within home range and resource selection analyses. We further use simulation to better understand the relationship among location uncertainty, spatial covariate autocorrelation, and resource selection inference. Results We found the ATM to have good performance in estimating locations and the only model that has appropriate measures of coverage. Ignoring animal location uncertainty when estimating resource selection or home ranges can have pernicious effects on ecological inference. Home range estimates can be overly confident and conservative when ignoring location uncertainty and resource selection coefficients can lead to incorrect inference and over confidence in the magnitude of selection. Furthermore, our simulation study clarified that incorporating location uncertainty helps reduce bias in resource selection coefficients across all levels of covariate spatial autocorrelation. Conclusion The ATM can accommodate one or more azimuths when estimating animal locations, regardless of how they intersect; this ensures that all data collected are used for ecological inference. Our findings and model development have important implications for interpreting historical analyses using this type of data and the future design of radio-telemetry studies.

Movement Ecology↗