Geology topics

Andrew Todd

Publications and source records attributed to Andrew Todd.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2019

Predicting persistence of Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout populations in an uncertain future

The Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout Oncorhynchus clarkii virginalis (RGCT ) occupies just 12% of its ancestral range. As the southernmost subspecies of Cutthroat Trout, we expect a warming climate to bring additional stressors to RGCT populations, such as increased stream temperatures, reduced streamflows, and increased incidence of wildfire. We developed a Bayesian network (BN ) model using site‐specific data, empirical research, and expert knowledge to estimate the probability of persistence for each of the 121 remaining RGCT conservation populations and to rank the severity of the threats they face. These inputs quantified the genetic risks (e.g., inbreeding risk and hybridization risk), population demographics (disease risk, habitat suitability, and survival), and probability of stochastic disturbances (stream drying risk and wildfire risk) in an uncertain future. We also created stream temperature and base flow discharge models coupled with regionally downscaled climate projections to predict future abiotic conditions at short‐term (2040s) and long‐term (2080s) time horizons. In the absence of active management, we predicted a decrease in the average probability of population persistence from 0.53 (current) to 0.31 (2040s) and 0.26 (2080s). Only 11% of these populations were predicted to have a greater than 75% chance of persisting to the 2080s. Threat of invasion by nonnative trout had the strongest effect on population persistence. Of the 78 populations that are already invaded or lacking complete barriers, 60% were estimated to be extirpated by 2080 and the remainder averaged only a 10% chance of persistence. In contrast, the effects of increased stream temperatures were predicted to affect the future persistence of only 9% of the 121 RGCT populations remaining, as most have been restricted to high‐elevation habitats that are cold enough to buffer against some stream warming. Our BN model provides a framework for evaluating threats and will be useful to guide management actions that are likely to provide the most benefit for long‐term conservation.

New Mexico, Colorado↗

USGS2012

Climate-change-driven deterioration of water quality in a mineralized watershed

A unique 30-year streamwater chemistry data set from a mineralized alpine watershed with naturally acidic, metal-rich water displays dissolved concentrations of Zn and other metals of ecological concern increasing by 100–400% (400–2000 μg/L) during low-flow months, when metal concentrations are highest. SO 4 and other major ions show similar increases. A lack of natural or anthropogenic land disturbances in the watershed during the study period suggests that climate change is the underlying cause. Local mean annual and mean summer air temperatures have increased at a rate of 0.2–1.2 °C/decade since the 1980s. Other climatic and hydrologic indices, including stream discharge during low-flow months, do not display statistically significant trends. Consideration of potential specific causal mechanisms driven by rising temperatures suggests that melting of permafrost and falling water tables (from decreased recharge) are probable explanations for the increasing concentrations. The prospect of future widespread increases in dissolved solutes from mineralized watersheds is concerning given likely negative impacts on downstream ecosystems and water resources, and complications created for the establishment of attainable remediation objectives at mine sites.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2008

Development of new water temperature criteria to protect Colorado's fisheries

Water temperature fundamentally influences aquatic diversity and ecosystem health. In Colorado, temperature water quality criteria were revised in January 2007 based on a rigorous evaluation of the thermal requirements of fish species resident in Colorado. This article presents an account of how this process was conducted, and details the resultant criteria. The purpose of developing these criteria was to protect coldwater and warmwater fishes, especially native species such as cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarki ), from thermal stress. As such, lethal temperatures and optimal temperature conditions were determined from a literature review for species of the state, and these data were compiled into the Colorado Temperature Database. Acute and chronic thermal thresholds were then calculated for individual fish species. Finally, assemblages of fish were grouped into thermal tiers and temperature criteria were developed based on biological criteria for each assemblage. A case study is presented detailing the integration of science and policy decisions that shaped the development of Colorado's coldwater temperature criteria. Some issues were not resolved during this revision of Colorado's temperature water quality criteria, including protection from thermal shock and from gross changes in diel and seasonal thermal variability.

Colorado↗