Geology topics

Andrew Kenneth Carlson

Publications and source records attributed to Andrew Kenneth Carlson.

13 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

Evaluating detection of temporal trends in long-term freshwater fisheries data to inform future monitoring efforts

Objective Florida’s Freshwater Fisheries Long-Term Monitoring Program was implemented in 2006 to track changes in freshwater fish populations and communities. As part of an evaluation of the program, this study used a simulation framework to assess trend detection for fish abundance and biomass indices and how sampling intensity (number of samples per year) and frequency (number of years) can influence detection of these trends. Methods Using count and weight data from fall electrofishing samples collected between 2006 and 2021 from 21 lakes, trends were simulated for annual mean count and weight over a 10-year period that ranged from −70% to +200%. In all, simulations were performed for seven game fish species and three management-relevant groups (large nongame, nonnative, and prey species). For sampling intensity, data were simulated with a range of sample sizes, from 10 to 40 electrofishing transects or the maximum number available for a given lake. For sampling frequency, data were simulated for different sampling schedules that included sampling 1 year followed by 1- or 2-year breaks (4–5 years of sampling in a 10-year period), sampling two consecutive years followed by 1- or 2-year breaks (6–7 years of sampling in a 10-year period), and sampling the first 5 years only. Results Simulations based on weight and count data yielded similar results, but the effect of sampling frequency and sampling schedule varied by species, management group, and lake. Trend detection was lower and more variable when mean counts and weights of fish in electrofishing samples were low. Overall, at least a 60% increase or 40% decrease over a 10-year period was typically needed for trends in mean weight and count to be detected at least 80% of the time in at least half of the lakes. Increasing sampling intensity did not substantially improve trend detection for lower-magnitude changes, but reducing sample intensity to a minimum of 10 electrofishing transects per year would have a large negative effect on trend detection in almost all lakes. Detection of trends improved as the number of years sampled increased, but ideally, sampling should be spaced throughout the entire 10-year period to capture the full magnitude of change. Sampling every year generally resulted in better trend detection and for many species and groups was the only sampling schedule that resulted in all study lakes achieving the 80% target detection level. Of the alternative schedules considered, those involving 2 years of consecutive sampling outperformed those with only 1 year of sampling followed by a 1- or 2-year break. Conclusions Relatively large changes in mean count and weight were required to detect trends over a 10-year period, but there was no clear advantage of using count or weight data for monitoring purposes. Further, study results support the current sampling intensity, but trend detection is optimized at higher mean catch and weight values. Although sampling every year is ideal, an alternative schedule involving sampling two consecutive years with 1- or 2-year breaks could be considered in certain situations. These results will be important for informing future decisions regarding Florida’s Freshwater Fisheries Long-Term Monitoring Program and other monitoring initiatives.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management.↗

USGS2025

Protected from Pterygoplichthys? Predicting thermal habitat suitability for nonnative armored catfish in the Suwannee River

Objective Nonnative fishes can modify ecosystems and harm economies when they are introduced to new environments. Climate change is likely to assist the spread and establishment of some nonnative fishes (e.g., warmwater species), but spatiotemporal gaps in water temperature monitoring and modeling may prevent ecologists and managers from forecasting thermal habitat suitability for these taxa. The purpose of this study was to develop a predictive model of winter water temperatures and thermal habitat suitability for two priority nonnative armored catfish, Vermiculated Sailfin Catfish Pterygoplichthys disjunctivus and Orinoco Sailfin Catfish P. multiradiatus , in the Suwannee River, Florida and Georgia. Methods Precipitation- and groundwater-corrected air–water temperature models were developed and evaluated using a model selection procedure to predict water temperatures at four sites in the Suwannee River. These models were chosen because they blend the simplicity of air–water temperature models with the accuracy of hydrometeorological models to create an efficient, economical, management-relevant approach for analyzing and forecasting water temperature. Results Most of the top-performing water temperature models (92%) had precipitation or groundwater corrections to air–water temperature formulations. Projected mean and maximum water temperatures increased as simulated climate change intensified. All four Suwannee River sites studied were projected to be thermally hospitable to the survival of Vermiculated Sailfin Catfish. Lower river sites, noticeably warmer than upper river sites, were conducive to the survival of Orinoco Sailfin Catfish throughout the winter months. The upper river sites were too cold for Orinoco Sailfin Catfish survival in some climate-change scenarios, but the Suwannee River has an abundance of constant-temperature springs that are likely hospitable to Vermiculated Sailfin Catfish and Orinoco Sailfin Catfish throughout the year. Conclusions The findings suggest that winter water temperatures will likely not be a barrier to the survival of Pterygoplichthys catfish in the Suwannee River, amplifying the importance of conservation and management approaches to inhibit their spread and establishment. If the Pterygoplichthys population remains small and isolated and decision makers are able to devote required staff time and resources to managing these species, removal and eradication at local if not broader scales may be reasonable goals. This study provides a water temperature modeling approach that can aid ecologists and managers in prioritizing sites to prevent the introduction, slow the dispersal, eradicate, and control Pterygoplichthys catfish and other nonnative fishes in the Suwannee River and beyond.

Florida, Georgia↗

USGS2025

Mahi-mahi metacouplings: Quantifying human–nature interactions in dolphinfish (Coryphaena hippurus) fisheries

Fisheries encompass humans and fish, but fisheries researchers rarely model human–nature interactions over space and time. I filled this information gap for dolphinfish (Coryphaena hippurus), a popular, widely distributed species that supports industrial, artisanal, recreational, and subsistence fisheries. Dolphinfish human–nature interactions showed a long-term up-and-down pattern in 1950–2019. Recent declines in catch mirror decreases in abundance and size that have been observed in parts of the species’ range. This research provides a robust perspective on the recreational, economic, cultural, and nutritional significance of dolphinfish while creating an approach for evaluating human–nature interactions in fisheries worldwide.

Global Sustainability↗

USGS2024

A new water temperature modeling approach to predict thermal habitat suitability for nonnative cichlids in Florida rivers

As global temperatures increase, the spatiotemporal arrangement of thermal habitats in Florida rivers may shift, creating the potential for greater dispersal and establishment of nonnative tropical freshwater fishes. To understand how water temperature changes may affect the spatial distribution of these nonnative species, more effective water temperature prediction models are necessary. Currently, most models employ either a generalized air–water temperature relationship or require expensive and complicated tools to measure hydrometeorological factors (e.g. groundwater input). Thus, we developed a novel modeling approach that is accurate, accessible, and cost-effective in allowing fisheries managers to project water temperatures in rivers across Central and North Florida. To characterize the potential for nonnative fishes to spread northward, we evaluated two hardy and abundant species currently found primarily in South Florida: Mayan Cichlid ( Mayaheros urophthalmus ) and Oscar ( Astronotus ocellatus ). Our results show an increase in thermally suitable winter days for both species in 10 of 11 rivers studied, consistent with predicted water temperature warming under 16 climate-change scenarios spanning different levels of air temperature warming (+1 °C, +2 °C, +3 °C, +4 °C) and precipitation/groundwater thermal sensitivity (0, 0.33, 0.66, 1). Considering resource limitations, fisheries managers can use our water temperature modeling approach to predict effects of climate change on Mayan Cichlid and Oscar survival, growth, and dispersal and take actions to manage potential northward movement of these species.

Florida↗

USGS2024

Taylor-made: The meaning of mentorship in fisheries

Thirteen years ago, as a senior in college, I barely knew what research was. Although I spent my senior year conducting fieldwork and writing 50 pages about Brown Trout Salmo trutta population dynamics in southeast Minnesota streams, the essence of research eluded me. It was not until graduate school that things clicked. A decade ago, I was several months away from completing my M.S. thesis on the effects of a large flood on aquatic resources in the Missouri River. Research was a newfound passion. My M.S. project changed my perspective, opening my eyes to the delights and difficulties of science. I attended the 2014 American Fisheries Society (AFS) meeting determined to talk to as many potential Ph.D. advisors as possible.

Aquatic Ecosystem Health & Management↗

USGS2024

Cold blood in warming waters: Effects of air temperature, precipitation, and groundwater on Gulf Sturgeon thermal habitats in a changing climate

Objective In a changing climate, the effects of air temperature, precipitation, and groundwater on water temperature and thermal habitat suitability for Gulf Sturgeon Acipenser desotoi , listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, are not well understood. Hence, we incorporated these factors into thermal habitat models to forecast how Gulf Sturgeon may be affected by wide‐ranging climate change scenarios in 2024–2074. Methods Using data from the Choctawhatchee River, Florida, we developed precipitation‐ and groundwater‐corrected air–water temperature models, compared their accuracy with that of conventional air–water temperature models used in fisheries management, and projected future Gulf Sturgeon thermal habitat suitability for normal physiological functioning and fieldwork (i.e., population sampling and telemetry surgeries) in summer (May–August) under 16 climate change scenarios. Result Precipitation‐ and groundwater‐corrected models were more accurate than conventional air–water temperature models (mean improvement in adjusted R 2 = +0.45; range = +0.09 to +0.75). Water temperature was projected to warm at widely variable rates across climate change scenarios encompassing different air temperature, precipitation, and groundwater regimes. Importantly, Gulf Sturgeon summer aggregation areas were cooler and influenced more by precipitation and groundwater and less by air temperature than were non‐aggregation areas. If precipitation and groundwater—as drivers of cooling—become warm in a changing climate, summer aggregation areas were projected to exhibit thermal habitat degradation equivalent to or greater than that of non‐aggregation areas. Conclusion Our results add hydrological context to the premise that aggregation areas provide cool water and energetic savings for Gulf Sturgeon during summer, underscoring the importance of protecting these habitats through groundwater conservation, water quality monitoring, and riparian/watershed habitat management. Our findings indicate that identifying thermally appropriate times for fieldwork activities will be increasingly important and time‐restricted as climate change intensifies. However, our research provides managers with a portfolio of water temperature models and an accurate, cost‐effective, management‐relevant approach to forecasting thermal habitat conditions for Gulf Sturgeon and other species in a changing climate.

Alabama, Florida↗

USGS2024

The Ecosystem Approach in the 21st century: Guiding science and management – A synthesis

Maintaining the integrity and health of aquatic ecosystems is critical to sustaining the many valued services that they provide society. Unfortunately, achieving this goal has proven challenging in most of the world's large ecosystems owing to rampant environmental change caused by human-driven stress, including accelerating climate change, pollution of waterways, habitat modification and destruction, and the continued spread of non-native species (He and Silliman, 2019; Jenny et al., 2020; Smith et al., 2015; Steffen et al., 2007). These stressors, which can also include purposeful management actions (e.g. nutrient and fisheries management), are presenting a grave challenge globally to efforts aimed at securing a sustainable future for nature, society, and the economy.

Aquatic Ecosystem Health & Management↗

USGS2024

Assessing and implementing the concept of Blue Economy in Laurentian Great Lakes fisheries: Lessons from coupled human and natural systems

Inland fisheries often receive little to no attention in global discussions about sustainable development. The consequences of overlooking inland fisheries in sustainability dialogues are increasingly problematic as fisheries stressors (e.g., overharvest, species invasion, climate change, habitat modification) intensify. Elevating the global profile of inland fisheries requires an approach for quantifying and clearly conveying the ecological, economic, and societal values of these systems. One such approach involves the Blue Economy, a multifaceted concept initially used to describe the intersection of marine conservation and sustainable use of marine resources for economic growth. Although conceptually powerful, the Blue Economy has rarely been applied to inland waters and fisheries. To address this knowledge gap, we conceptualized Laurentian Great Lakes fisheries from a Blue Economy perspective. In particular, we evaluated the utility of the coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) framework for characterizing the ecological, economic, and societal values of Laurentian Great Lakes fisheries and associated contributions to the Blue Economy (e.g., human livelihoods, food security, recreation, conservation, economic prosperity). There are numerous opportunities to leverage CHANS methods (e.g., metacoupling, telecoupling) and associated mathematical models to advance fisheries science, inform fisheries management, and ultimately move toward a Blue Economy in the Laurentian Great Lakes. To that end, we demonstrated applications of CHANS methods, discussed strategies for communicating with stakeholders, and provided insights for navigating challenges to developing a Blue Economy in the Laurentian Great Lakes—a model that could be used in the African Great Lakes and other large ecosystems in the world.

Laurentian Great Lakes↗

USGS2023

Evaluation of shoreline rotenone application to control Largemouth Bass recruitment in small impoundments

Objective Reducing Largemouth Bass Micropterus salmoides recruitment and therefore population density could benefit recreational fisheries in small impoundments by improving individual growth rates and increasing the average size and condition of Largemouth Bass. To achieve these effects, methods of controlling Largemouth Bass recruitment should avoid reducing the productivity of their primary prey species, the Bluegill Lepomis macrochirus . Methods We tested this hypothesis by evaluating the effects of shoreline rotenone application on the density of Bluegill and the density, growth, and survival of age-0 and age-1 Largemouth Bass in 15 Alabama small impoundments. Result After treatment, Largemouth Bass age-0 densities declined and mean age-1 length increased, whereas Bluegill populations were not significantly reduced. Conclusion Our study indicates that shoreline rotenone application may be a valuable method for reducing Largemouth Bass recruitment and increasing the growth of age-1 Largemouth Bass in small impoundments. However, further research is needed to understand the effects of treatment on nontarget fishes and to better assess the effects of factors such as impoundment surface area and treatment frequency and duration on the ultimate utility of the approach.

Alabama↗

USGS2023

Characterization of fish assemblages in eleven multi-use reservoirs from North Carolina, USA

Managing impounded river systems is a recurring challenge for aquatic resource professionals because reservoirs serve multiple functions with different ecological and socioeconomic outcomes. However, research on fishes in reservoirs has disproportionally focused on recreationally and economically important species, with less attention directed toward fish assemblages despite the potential for management at the assemblage level. As such, evaluation of relationships between reservoir fish assemblages and biotic and abiotic factors and testing whether assemblage structure is affected by changing environmental conditions may deepen ecological understanding and provide insights for reservoir fisheries management. Our overall objective was to assess these relationships in 11 reservoirs from North Carolina, USA. We sampled fish assemblages in the reservoirs, which spanned five river basins representing a range of habitat conditions, using experimental gillnets and pulsed DC nighttime electrofishing. Multivariate statistical analyses indicated that taxonomic differences in fish assemblage composition among river basins followed a gradient of productivity. The top contributing species to reservoir dissimilarity were bluegill ( Lepomis macrochirus ), gizzard shad ( Dorosoma cepedianum ), black crappie ( Pomoxis nigromaculatus ), and white perch ( Morone americana ). These four species were positively associated with factors that reflect increasing eutrophic conditions in the 11 reservoirs and could, therefore, serve as indicators of reservoir productivity, anthropogenic influence, and fish assemblage structure, in addition to their key role in reservoir fisheries management. Whereas fisheries research has historically focused on assessing fish populations, our results illustrate the ecological and management insights derived from simultaneously collecting assemblage- and population-level data. Research on reservoir fish assemblages in relation to biotic and abiotic conditions may help advance fish ecology and management alike.

North Carolina↗

USGS2023

Survey evaluation of Florida’s freshwater fisheries long-term monitoring program

Natural resource monitoring programs benefit from routine evaluation. Here, Florida’s statewide Freshwater Fisheries Long-Term Monitoring (LTM) program is used to show how stakeholder surveys can be integral to this process. In 2022, an online questionnaire was sent to internal stakeholders, i.e., state agency personnel who collect, enter, or use freshwater fisheries data for fisheries and habitat management purposes. The survey’s primary objective was to evaluate the program at its 15-year mark; secondary objectives were to compare results with a similar survey conducted at the 4-year mark, compare results among respondents based on experience and functional role, and develop recommendations for strategic initiatives to further improve the program. The survey consisted of 43 questions across six sections of program evaluation: demographics; field sampling; data entry, summary, and reporting; management decision support; programmatic views; and additional input. Respondents generally had positive views of the LTM program, but the survey revealed differences among respondents with different functional roles (e.g., fisheries researchers and managers viewed the decisional value, priority, and sample sizes of LTM data more favorably than habitat managers) while highlighting high-priority future initiatives (e.g., database development). Our results demonstrate the utility of stakeholder surveys as an important step in evaluating monitoring programs.

Florida↗

USGS2023

Bluegill population demographics as related to abiotic and biotic factors in Florida lakes

Research on Bluegills, Lepomis macrochirus R., is abundant but typically focuses on water bodies with similar environmental conditions. We assessed Bluegill density, relative abundance (catch per unit effort [CPUE] by electrofishing), growth, and size structure in 60 lakes with wide-ranging surface areas (2–12,412 ha), trophic states (oligotrophic–hypereutrophic), and macrophyte abundances (0.3–100 percent of lake volume inhabited [PVI]) across Florida, USA. Bluegill density and CPUE increased with lake productivity and decreased with macrophyte abundance. Bluegill growth increased with lake productivity and CPUE of stock-length Florida Bass, Micropterus floridanus L., a Bluegill predator. Bluegill size structure increased with lake productivity and decreased with Bluegill density. Results indicate that Bluegill fisheries with abundant individuals of quality size (≥150 mm) require productive (>25 μg/L chlorophyll- a concentration) lakes with moderate to high macrophyte coverage (PVI 50–100), abundant stock-length Florida Bass (>40 fish/h of electrofishing), and Bluegill densities <300 fish/ha. This study provides an approach to predict Bluegill population demographics based on abiotic and biotic factors, establish fisheries management expectations, and develop regional and lake-specific management tools.

Florida↗

USGS2022

Redear Sunfish occurrence, abundance, growth, and size structure as related to abiotic and biotic factors in Florida lakes

Panfish support popular, socioeconomically valuable fisheries across the United States. Whereas Bluegill Lepomis macrochirus and Black Crappie Pomoxis nigromaculatus receive considerable research attention, Redear Sunfish L . microlophus are seldom studied despite their wide distribution, large size, socioeconomic contributions, and invasion potential in parts of their introduced range. We evaluated Redear Sunfish occurrence, density, relative abundance, growth, and size structure in 60 Florida lakes with varied surface area (2–12,412 ha), trophic state (oligotrophic to hypereutrophic), and macrophyte abundance (0.3–100% of lake volume inhabited), a range of environmental conditions over which Redear Sunfish populations have scarcely been investigated. Lake surface area, chlorophyll- a concentration, and macrophyte abundance explained 98% of variation in Redear Sunfish occurrence. Redear Sunfish density increased asymptotically with calcium concentration, whereas relative abundance (electrofishing fish/h) peaked at intermediate surface area (50–100 ha) and chlorophyll a (20 μg/L). Mean length at age 3 declined with increasing macrophyte abundance and was parabolically related to Redear Sunfish density, peaking at approximately 450 fish/ha. The proportional size distribution (PSD) and PSD of preferred-length fish were also negatively related to macrophyte abundance, and PSD declined with increasing Redear Sunfish density. Our results suggest that Redear Sunfish fisheries with abundant individuals of quality size (≥180 mm) require large (>100 ha), fertile (>20 μg/L chlorophyll a ) lakes with calcium concentrations >5 mg/L, moderate macrophyte abundance (0–25% of lake volume inhabited), and Redear Sunfish densities between 200 and 700 fish/ha. Our modeling approach can help managers predict Redear Sunfish occurrence, density, relative abundance, growth, and size structure based on a suite of abiotic and biotic variables.

Florida↗