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Andrew D. Ashton

Publications and source records attributed to Andrew D. Ashton.

10 recordsLinked to original sources

Modeling the seasonality of wind-driven hydrocarbon waves in Titan’s polar lakes

Titan, the only body in the solar system aside from Earth with standing liquids on its surface, has polar hydrocarbon lakes and seas. As Titan’s atmosphere generates light winds, there should be waves on the surface of these lakes and seas, yet, direct wave observations are scant. We introduce and use PlanetWaves , an open source 4D spectral wave model, to study Titan’s waves and create seasonal maps of wave shape and propagation on Ontario Lacus and Ligeia Mare. Titan’s modeled waves grow up to 30 times larger than terrestrial waves for the same wind speed, are seasonally present and are largest in the spring and summer when winds are strongest. Average daily winds almost never exceed the wave generation threshold of 0.5–0.7 m/s. Average storm winds (∼1.5 m/s) generate waves 15–48 cm in height with a period ranging 6–10.5 s while maximum storm winds (∼4 m/s) generate waves 2.7–3.2 m in height with a period up to 32 s. Titan’s waves become fetch-independent at ∼40 km for average storm winds occurring ∼1% of a Titan year and ∼100 kilometers for maximum storm winds occurring 2-3 times per Titan decade. On Ontario Lacus, storm winds blow nearly parallel to the eastern shore, potentially driving wave modification of the smooth eastern shoreline. On Ligeia Mare, waves rarely propagate toward a hypothesized wave modified shoreline suggesting that another process, such as tectonics, may contribute to a straight shoreline morphology.

JGR Planets

Projecting management-relevant change of undeveloped coastal barriers with the Mesoscale Explicit Ecogeomorphic Barrier model (MEEB) v1.0

Models of coastal barrier geomorphic and ecologic change are valuable tools for understanding and predicting when, where, and how barriers evolve and transition between ecogeomorphic states. Few existing models of barrier systems are designed to operate over spatiotemporal scales congruous with effective management practices (i.e., decades/kilometers, referred to herein as “mesoscales”), incorporate important ecogeomorphic feedbacks, and provide probabilistic projections of future change. Here, we present a new numerical model designed to address these gaps by explicitly yet efficiently simulating coupled aeolian, marine, vegetation, and shoreline components of barrier evolution over spatiotemporal scales relevant to management. The Mesoscale Explicit Ecogeomorphic Barrier model (MEEB) simulates subaerial ecomorphologic change of undeveloped barrier systems over kilometers and decades using meter-scale spatial resolution and weekly time steps. MEEB applies simplified parameterizations to represent and couple key ecogeomorphic processes: dune growth, vegetation expansion and mortality, beach and foredune erosion, barrier overwash, and shoreline and shoreface change. The model is parameterized and calibrated with observed elevation, vegetation, and water level data for a case study site of North Core Banks, NC, USA. Simulated ecogeomorphic change in model hindcasts agrees well with observations, demonstrating both favorable skill scores and qualitatively correct behavior. We also describe an additional model framework for producing probabilistic projections that account for uncertainties related to future forcing conditions and intrinsic stochastic dynamics and demonstrate the probabilistic framework's utility with example forecast simulations. As a mesoscale model, MEEB is designed to investigate questions about future barrier ecogeomorphic change of moderate complexity, offering semi-qualitative predictions and semi-quantitative explanations. For example, MEEB can be used to investigate how climate-induced shifts in ecological composition may alter the likelihood of morphologic impacts or to generate probabilistic projections of ecogeomorphic state change.

Geoscientific Model Development

Predicting characteristic length scales of barrier island segmentation in microtidal environments

Segmented barrier islands can be found in regions with small tidal ranges. In contrast to tidally dominated barriers, where inlet dynamics are thought to control island length scales, the controls on barrier island length scales in wave-dominated environments have not been quantified. These microtidal barriers typically have a curved shoreline, suggesting the influence of wave-driven alongshore sediment transport. Microtidal barriers are also typically hydrodynamically isolated from one another, as weak tidal flows limit interactions between adjoining barriers. To better understand the controls on and scales of barrier segmentation in the relative absence of tides, here we develop a theoretical framework to estimate the alongshore length scales at which a barrier will either breach or heal following a disturbance in the barrier morphology. The non-dimensional framework compares the timescales of overwash (advective) and alongshore sediment transport (diffusive) processes along barrier island chains. We then apply this framework to modern barrier islands in the microtidal Gulf of Mexico using wave hindcast data and the lengths, widths, heights, and lagoon depths measured from remotely sensed geospatial data and topobathymetric data. We find that most of these barriers are currently longer than their critical length scale, often as a result of coastal restoration efforts. Our critical length scale analysis suggests that most of the Gulf of Mexico barriers are vulnerable to segmentation despite coastal restoration efforts intended to protect fisheries and the mainland coasts.

Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi

NEWTS1.0: Numerical model of coastal Erosion by Waves and Transgressive Scarps

Models of rocky-coast erosion help us understand the physical phenomena that control coastal morphology and evolution, infer the processes shaping coasts in remote environments, and evaluate risk from natural hazards and future climate change. Existing models, however, are highly complex, are computationally expensive, and depend on many input parameters; this limits our ability to explore planform erosion of rocky coasts over long timescales (thousands to millions of years) and over a range of conditions. In this paper, we present a simplified cellular model of coastline evolution in closed basins through uniform erosion and wave-driven erosion. Uniform erosion is modeled as a constant rate of retreat. Wave erosion is modeled as a function of fetch, the distance over which the wind blows to generate waves, and the angle between the incident wave and the shoreline. This reduced-complexity model can be used to evaluate how a detachment-limited coastal landscape reflects climate, sea-level history, material properties, and the relative influence of different erosional processes.

Geoscientific Model Development

Signatures of wave erosion in Titan’s coasts

The shorelines of Titan’s hydrocarbon seas trace flooded erosional landforms such as river valleys; however, it is unclear whether coastal erosion has subsequently altered these shorelines. Spacecraft observations and theoretical models suggest that wind may cause waves to form on Titan’s seas, potentially driving coastal erosion, but the observational evidence of waves is indirect, and the processes affecting shoreline evolution on Titan remain unknown. No widely accepted framework exists for using shoreline morphology to quantitatively discern coastal erosion mechanisms, even on Earth, where the dominant mechanisms are known. We combine landscape evolution models with measurements of shoreline shape on Earth to characterize how different coastal erosion mechanisms affect shoreline morphology. Applying this framework to Titan, we find that the shorelines of Titan’s seas are most consistent with flooded landscapes that subsequently have been eroded by waves, rather than a uniform erosional process or no coastal erosion, particularly if wave growth saturates at fetch lengths of tens of kilometers.

Science Advances

The evolution of natural and developed barriers under accelerating sea levels

Communities residing on barrier islands depend upon the ability of barriers to withstand forcings such as waves, sea-level rise, and storms, particularly under stresses from climate change. Using a barrier island evolution model, we compare barrier response to linear versus accelerating sea-level rise. Results suggest that barriers are more likely to drown under accelerating rather than linear sea-level rise. The dominant style of barrier drowning also shifts from width drowning to height drowning. When our model of barrier evolution is coupled with a myopic economic decision-making model for beach nourishment and managed retreat, the general coastal management behavior is unchanged. However, the timing and position at which interventions are made differ. Therefore, decisions based on the assumption of constant sea-level rise rates rather than increasing rates may result in actions that are detrimental to communities and potentially reduce the barrier’s ability to maintain its subaerial landform.

Conference Paper

Incorporating wave climate complexity into modeling lower shoreface morphology and transport

The lower shoreface, a transitional subaqueous region extending from the seaward limit of the surf zone to beyond the closure depth, serves as a sediment reservoir and pathway in sandy beach environments over annual to millennial time scales. Despite the important role this region plays in shoreline dynamics, the morphodynamics of the lower shoreface remain poorly quantified and understood. To better understand controls on shoreface morphology, here we combine energetics-based suspended sediment transport formulae (Ortiz & Aston 2016) with empirical wave climate data to incorporate temporal complexity in modeled equilibrium profiles and sediment flux rates. The equilibrium shoreface shape computed using a full wave climate is steeper in shallower water and less steep in the deeper reaches compared to profiles computed using single wave characteristics. Using a full wave climate to simulate steady-state morphology will yield steeper profiles in shallow water. Suspended sediment transport rates also vary in direction and magnitude at different equilibrium profile depths and can potentially inform the location of morphodynamic boundaries in the shoreface. Our results reveal how infrequent storm waves affect shoreface slopes, with large events tending to drive sediment onshore in the deeper portions of the profile. This work explores a few ways to add complexity to simple energetics-based frameworks to reproduce empirical bathymetric data more accurately and provides insight toward refining coastal source-to-sink models.

Conference Paper

Seismic evidence of glacial-age river incision into the Tahaa barrier reef, French Polynesia

Rivers have long been recognized for their ability to shape reef-bound volcanic islands. On the time-scale of glacial–interglacial sea-level cycles, fluvial incision of exposed barrier reef lagoons may compete with constructional coral growth to shape the coastal geomorphology of ocean islands. However, overprinting of Pleistocene landscapes by Holocene erosion or sedimentation has largely obscured the role lowstand river incision may have played in developing the deep lagoons typical of modern barrier reefs. Here we use high-resolution seismic imagery and core stratigraphy to examine how erosion and/or deposition by upland drainage networks has shaped coastal morphology on Tahaa, a barrier reef-bound island located along the Society Islands hotspot chain in French Polynesia. At Tahaa, we find that many channels, incised into the lagoon floor during Pleistocene sea-level lowstands, are located near the mouths of upstream terrestrial drainages. Steeper antecedent topography appears to have enhanced lowstand fluvial erosion along Tahaa's southwestern coast and maintained a deep pass. During highstands, upland drainages appear to contribute little sediment to refilling accommodation space in the lagoon. Rather, the flushing of fine carbonate sediment out of incised fluvial channels by storms and currents appears to have limited lagoonal infilling and further reinforced development of deep barrier reef lagoons during periods of highstand submersion.

Tahaa barrier reef

A circulation modeling approach for evaluating the conditions for shoreline instabilities

Analytical models predict the growth (instability) of shoreline salients when deep-water waves approach the coast from highly oblique angles, contrary to classical shoreline change models in which shoreline salients can only dissipate. Using the process-based wave, circulation, and sediment transport model Delft3D, we test this prediction for simulated bathymetric and wave characteristics approximating the open-ocean conditions at Duck, North Carolina. We consider two cases: a uniform coast with a varying wave approach angle, and a bathymetry with coastal salients and a single high-angle boundary wave condition. Incident wave conditions include a swell case with no wind and a wind-wave case with active local wave regeneration by wind. The uniform-coast tests predict transport maxima at oblique wave angles for both wave cases, indicating the potential for shoreline instabilities, similar to the analytical models. However, the critical angle for instability is much higher in the wind-wave case. Our tests with coastal salients agree with previous findings that a minimum salient length scale may be required for the instability effect to be active. Here, a salient with a longshore scale of 4 km results in transport divergence (erosion; no instability) at the salient crest while an 8 km salient results in transport convergence (accretion; instability) at the crest.

North Carolina

‘Cape capture’: Geologic data and modeling results suggest the Holocene loss of a Carolina Cape

For more than a century, the origin and evolution of the set of cuspate forelands known as the Carolina Capes—Hatteras, Lookout, Fear, and Romain—off the eastern coast of the United States have been discussed and debated. The consensus conceptual model is not only that these capes existed through much or all of the Holocene transgression, but also that their number has not changed. Here we describe bathymetric, lithologic, seismic, and chronologic data that suggest another cape may have existed between Capes Hatteras and Lookout during the early to middle Holocene. This cape likely formed at the distal end of the Neuse-Tar-Pamlico fluvial system during the early Holocene transgression, when this portion of the shelf was flooded ca. 9 cal (calibrated) kyr B.P., and was probably abandoned by ca. 4 cal kyr B.P., when the shoreline attained its present general configuration. Previously proposed mechanisms for cape formation suggest that the large-scale, rhythmic pattern of the Carolina Capes arose from a hydrodynamic template or the preexisting geologic framework. Numerical modeling, however, suggests that the number and spacing of capes can be dynamic, and that a coast can self-organize in response to a high-angle-wave instability in shoreline shape. In shoreline evolution model simulations, smaller cuspate forelands are subsumed by larger neighbors over millennial time scales through a process of ‘cape capture.’ The suggested former cape in Raleigh Bay represents the first interpreted geological evidence of dynamic abandonment suggested by the self-organization hypothesis. Cape capture may be a widespread process in coastal environments with large-scale rhythmic shoreline features; its preservation in the sedimentary record will vary according to geologic setting, physical processes, and sea-level history.

North Carolina