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Andrew B. Lockhart

Publications and source records attributed to Andrew B. Lockhart.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

Construction of probabilistic event trees for eruption forecasting at Sinabung volcano, Indonesia 2013–14

Eruptions of Sinabung volcano , Indonesia have been ongoing since 2013. Since that time, the character of eruptions has changed, from phreatic to phreatomagmatic to magmatic explosive eruptions, and from production of a lava dome that collapsed to a subsequent thick lava flow that slowly ceased to be active, and later, to a new lava dome. As the eruption progressed, event trees were constructed to forecast eruptive behavior six times, with forecast windows that ranged from 2 weeks to 1 year: November 7–10, December 12–14, and December 27, 2013; and January 9–10, May 13, and October 7, 2014. These event trees were successful in helping to frame the forecast scenarios, to collate current monitoring information, and to document outstanding questions and unknowns. The highest probability forecasts closely matched outcomes of eruption size (including extrusion of the first dome), production of pyroclastic density currents, and pyroclastic density current runout distances. Events assigned low probabilities also occurred, including total collapse of the lava dome in January 2014 and production of a small blast pyroclastic density current in February 2014.

Sinabung volcano

Seismicity and infrasound associated with explosions at Mount St. Helens, 2004-2005

Six explosions occurred during 2004-5 in association with renewed eruptive activity at Mount St. Helens, Washington. Of four explosions in October 2004, none had precursory seismicity and two had explosion-related seismic tremor that marked the end of the explosion. However, seismicity levels dropped following each of the October explosions, providing the primary instrumental means for explosion detection during the initial vent-clearing phase. In contrast, explosions on January 16 and March 8, 2005, produced noticeable seismicity in the form of explosion-related tremor, infrasonic signals, and, in the case of the March 8 explosion, an increase in event size ~2 hours before the explosion. In both 2005 cases seismic tremor appeared before any infrasonic signals and was best recorded on stations located within the crater. These explosions demonstrated that reliable explosion detection at volcanoes like Mount St. Helens requires seismic stations within 1-2 km of the vent and stations with multiple acoustic sensors.

Washington

Seismic-monitoring changes and the remote deployment of seismic stations (seismic spider) at Mount St. Helens, 2004-2005

The instruments in place at the start of volcanic unrest at Mount St. Helens in 2004 were inadequate to record the large earthquakes and monitor the explosions that occurred as the eruption developed. To remedy this, new instruments were deployed and the short-period seismic network was modified. A new method of establishing near-field seismic monitoring was developed, using remote deployment by helicopter. The remotely deployed seismic sensor was a piezoelectric accelerometer mounted on a surface-coupled platform. Remote deployment enabled placement of stations within 250 m of the active vent.

Washington

Catalog of earthquake hypocenters at Alaskan volcanoes: January 1, 1994 through December 31, 1999

The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO), a cooperative program of the U.S. Geological Survey, the Geophysical Institute of the University of Alaska - Fairbanks, and the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, has maintained a seismic monitoring program at potentially active volcanoes in Alaska since 1988 (Power and others, 1993; Jolly and others, 1996). The primary objectives of this program are the seismic surveillance of active, potentially hazardous, Alaskan volcanoes and the investigation of seismic processes associated with active volcanism. Between 1994 and 1999, the AVO seismic monitoring program underwent significant changes with networks added at new volcanoes during each summer from 1995 through 1999. The existing network at Katmai –Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes (VTTS) was repaired in 1995, and new networks were installed at Makushin (1996), Akutan (1996), Pavlof (1996), Katmai - south (1996), Aniakchak (1997), Shishaldin (1997), Katmai - north (1998), Westdahl, (1998), Great Sitkin (1999) and Kanaga (1999). These networks added to AVO's existing seismograph networks in the Cook Inlet area and increased the number of AVO seismograph stations from 46 sites and 57 components in 1994 to 121 sites and 155 components in 1999. The 1995–1999 seismic network expansion increased the number of volcanoes monitored in real-time from 4 to 22, including Mount Spurr, Redoubt Volcano, Iliamna Volcano, Augustine Volcano, Mount Snowy, Mount Griggs, Mount Katmai, Novarupta, Trident Volcano, Mount Mageik, Mount Martin, Aniakchak Crater, Pavlof Volcano, Mount Dutton, Isanotski volcano, Shisaldin Volcano, Fisher Caldera, Westdahl volcano, Akutan volcano, Makushin Volcano, Great Sitkin volcano, and Kanaga Volcano (see Figures 1-15). The network expansion also increased the number of earthquakes located from about 600 per year in1994 and 1995 to about 3000 per year between 1997 and 1999. Highlights of the catalog period include: 1) a large volcanogenic seismic swarm at Akutan volcano in March and April 1996 (Lu and others, 2000); 2) an eruption at Pavlof Volcano in fall 1996 (Garces and others, 2000; McNutt and others, 2000); 3) an earthquake swarm at Iliamna volcano between September and December 1996; 4) an earthquake swarm at Mount Mageik in October 1996 (Jolly and McNutt, 1999); 5) an earthquake swarm located at shallow depth near Strandline Lake; 6) a strong swarm of earthquakes near Becharof Lake; 7) precursory seismicity and an eruption at Shishaldin Volcano in April 1999 that included a 5.2 ML earthquake and aftershock sequence (Moran and others, in press; Thompson and others, in press). The 1996 calendar year is also notable as the seismicity rate was very high, especially in the fall when 3 separate areas (Strandline Lake, Iliamna Volcano, and several of the Katmai volcanoes) experienced high rates of located earthquakes. This catalog covers the period from January 1, 1994, through December 31,1999, and includes: 1) earthquake origin times, hypocenters, and magnitudes with summary statistics describing the earthquake location quality; 2) a description of instruments deployed in the field and their locations and magnifications; 3) a description of earthquake detection, recording, analysis, and data archival; 4) velocity models used for earthquake locations; 5) phase arrival times recorded at individual stations; and 6) a summary of daily station usage from throughout the report period. We have made calculated hypocenters, station locations, system magnifications, velocity models, and phase arrival information available for download via computer network as a compressed Unix tar file.

Alaska