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Andrew Ashton

Publications and source records attributed to Andrew Ashton.

7 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2025

Surface ice effects on water levels, wave dynamics and wave runup

Surface ice-induced changes in hydrodynamics may have significant implications on coastal hazards such as erosion and flooding. The objective of this study was to investigate how Lake Superior's water levels (WLs) and wave dynamics, that is, hydrodynamics, as well as the wave power and wave runup are influenced by the formation of surface ice. This study utilized a coupled circulation and spectral wave model, ADvanced CIRCulation Model (ADCIRC) + Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN). In this study, we considered six different ice-on, incorporating either ice thickness or concentration, and one hypothetical ice-free, ignoring any form of ice forcing, scenarios. The impact of surface ice on lake's WLs was found to be fairly insignificant. In contrast, surface ice-induced modifications in wave spectra resulted in smaller significant wave heights but longer peak wave periods. These observations were attributed to less energetic and narrower wave spectra of ice-on models compared to that of the ice-free model. The power loss caused by surface ice in a month was found to have enough capacity to meet the electrical demands of 55–100 households for an entire year in the United States. According to wave runup comparisons of ice-on and ice-free models at different regions, the effect of surface ice on wave runup could potentially exacerbate the adverse effect of coastal flooding by increasing the wave runup more than 20 cm. Such a geographic variation in the wave runup was observed to be influenced by the distance traveled by the waves within the ice field and duration of ice-wave interaction.

Lake Superior↗
USGS2023

Toward a total water level forecast of the Great Lakes

The combined effect of storm surge and large waves is the main driving mechanism that erodes beaches, inundates low-lying areas, leading to millions of dollars in property damage, loss of natural resources, and lives. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) aims to expand the real-time total water level (TWL) forecast provided in the Operational Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecasts (TWL&CC) to the Great Lakes short- (0 – 36 hours) to medium-term (3 – 5 days) coastal-hazard forecasts to inform planners and emergency responders. This study assesses the skill of forecast water levels and wave characteristics required as input to the TWL forecasts. It finds that, while skill generally decreases as forecast period increases, these data are suitable as input to the TWL forecast system. As the TWL predictions depend on the water level and wave forecasts, validation against field observations allow evaluation of their suitability for the Great Lakes. These results have implications on the prediction of water levels and their potential impacts on coastal resiliency in North America.

Great Lakes↗
USGS2020

Increased typhoon activity in the Pacific deep tropics driven by Little Ice Age circulation changes

The instrumental record reveals that tropical cyclone activity is sensitive to oceanic and atmospheric variability on inter-annual and decadal scales. However, our understanding of the influence of climate on tropical cyclone behaviour is restricted by the short historical record and the sparseness of prehistorical reconstructions, particularly in the western North Pacific, where coastal communities suffer loss of life and livelihood from typhoons annually. Here, to explore past regional typhoon dynamics, we reconstruct three millennia of deep tropical North Pacific cyclogenesis. Combined with existing records, our reconstruction demonstrates that low-baseline typhoon activity prior to 1350 CE was followed by an interval of frequent storms during the Little Ice Age. This pattern, concurrent with hydroclimate proxy variability, suggests a centennial-scale link between Pacific hydroclimate and tropical cyclone climatology. An ensemble of global climate models demonstrates a migration of the Pacific Walker circulation and variability in two Pacific climate modes during the Little Ice Age, which probably contributed to enhanced tropical cyclone activity in the tropical western North Pacific. In the next century, projected changes to the Pacific Walker circulation and expansion of the tropics will invert these Little Ice Age hydroclimate trends, potentially reducing typhoon activity in the deep tropical Pacific.

Nature Geoscience↗
USGS2017

Reply to: Terry, J. and Goff, J. comment on “Late Cenozoic sea level and the rise of modern rimmed atolls” by Toomey et al. (2016), Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 4 51: 73–83.

We appreciate Terry and Goff's thoughtful comment in response to our proposed atoll development model. Flank collapse of reef-built slopes likely does affect plan-form atoll morphology in some locations and potentially poses a tsunami hazard to low-lying Pacific islands (Terry and Goff, 2013). However, given the often rapid rates of lagoon infill (> 1 mm/yr; Montaggioni, 2005), such failure events would likely need to be frequent and widespread in order to leave a morphologic imprint on modern western Pacific atoll lagoon depths. Few atoll flank collapse features have been dated but many of the arcuate bight-like structures (ABLS) identified could be inherited from scars incised into the initial volcanic edifice (e.g. Terry and Goff, 2013 and refs. therein) — submarine mass wasting has been extensively documented on young hotspot islands (e.g. Hawaiian Islands: Moore et al., 1989; Reunion: Oehler et al., 2008). Atolls in the Marshall Islands, where our main study site Enewetak Atoll is located, are likely ~ 50–100 million years old (Larson et al., 1995) and dating of adjacent deep-water turbidite aprons in the Nauru Basin (DSDP Site 462; Schlanger and Silva, 1986) suggests that large atoll flank collapse events have been relatively infrequent there since the mid-Miocene (< 11 Ma). In our simple, 1D atoll development model (Toomey et al., 2016a), we included the minimum set of processes (vertical accretion, dissolution, and lagoonal infilling) required to accurately simulate Enewetak's ‘recent’ depositional history (8.5–0 Ma) and explain basic differences in lagoon depth among western Pacific atolls. We agree future development of a model incorporating the wider range of processes impacting connectivity between reef-bound lagoons and the ocean (e.g. Ouillon et al., 2004; Toomey et al., 2016b), including stochastic mass wasting events, will be essential for exploring the plan-form and 3D shapes of atolls. To our knowledge, no quantitative model of long-term atoll development has explicitly linked lagoon restriction/sedimentation to episodic flank collapse events (e.g. Montaggioni et al., 2015; Paterson et al., 2006; Quinn, 1991; Warrlich et al., 2002). Testing Terry and Goff's proposed conceptual model for how rim failure processes affect atoll morphology in a numerical context will require deep drilling along arcuate bight-like structures, as well as adjacent, unaffected, rim and lagoon areas, in order quantify how often failures occur and how quickly the rim/lagoon is rebuilt afterwards. The model we present here provides a general framework capable of integrating atoll flank collapse processes once they are sufficiently constrained by such observational datasets.

Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology↗
USGS2016

Cenozoic sea level and the rise of modern rimmed atolls

Sea-level records from atolls, potentially spanning the Cenozoic, have been largely overlooked, in part because the processes that control atoll form (reef accretion, carbonate dissolution, sediment transport, vertical motion) are complex and, for many islands, unconstrained on million-year timescales. Here we combine existing observations of atoll morphology and corelog stratigraphy from Enewetak Atoll with a numerical model to (1) constrain the relative rates of subsidence, dissolution and sedimentation that have shaped modern Pacific atolls and (2) construct a record of sea level over the past 8.5 million years. Both the stratigraphy from Enewetak Atoll (constrained by a subsidence rate of ~ 20 m/Myr) and our numerical modeling results suggest that low sea levels (50–125 m below present), and presumably bi-polar glaciations, occurred throughout much of the late Miocene, preceding the warmer climate of the Pliocene, when sea level was higher than present. Carbonate dissolution through the subsequent sea-level fall that accompanied the onset of large glacial cycles in the late Pliocene, along with rapid highstand constructional reef growth, likely drove development of the rimmed atoll morphology we see today.

Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology↗
USGS2014

The rock coast of the USA

The coastline of the USA is vast and comprises a variety of landform types including barrier islands, mainland beaches, soft bluffed coastlines and hard rocky coasts. The majority of the bluffed and rocky coasts are found in the northeastern part of the country (New England) and along the Pacific coast. Rocky and bluffed landform types are commonly interspersed along the coastline and occur as a result of relative lowering of sea level from tectonic or isostatic forcing, which can occur on timescales ranging from instantaneous to millenia. Recent research on sea cliffs in the contiguous USA has focused on a broad range of topics from documenting erosion rates to identifying processes and controls on morphology to prediction modelling. This chapter provides a detailed synthesis of recent and seminal research on rocky coast geomorphology along open-ocean coasts of the continental United States (USA).

Book chapter↗