Geology topics

Andrea Bruckmeier

Publications and source records attributed to Andrea Bruckmeier.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Stability changes after weak layer collapse: Insights from an unexpected dataset

While conducting avalanche mitigation or traveling through the backcountry, avalanche professionals sometimes experience a "whumpf": a collapse-mode crack accompanied by surface cracking that does not produce an avalanche. These whumpfs are a clear warning sign of instability in the surrounding terrain. But assessing the collapsed slope itself, if it is steep enough to avalanche, carries much more uncertainty. Can slopes that whumpf and are steep enough to slide still avalanche? The answer to this question supports avalanche mitigators and ski guides in assessing whether to open such slopes. Previous research on collapsed slopes is limited to one study conducted before tests that estimate crack propagation propensity, such as the Propagation Saw Test (PST), were developed. This work showed that weak layer shear strength decreased immediately after collapsing and then increased over time. However, no research has examined crack propagation propensity after a whumpf. Studying propagation propensity is key for assessing how whumpfs immediately affect slope stability. To improve our understanding of changes in propagation propensity following weak layer collapse, we conducted PSTs on a test slope in the hours and days after an unexpected collapse occurred on a layer of surface hoar. Two PSTs at our study site three days prior to this collapse provided an estimate of weak layer propagation propensity. PST cut lengths decreased immediately following the collapse, suggesting that the collapse increased the propagation propensity. However, over the next 4-5 hours, PST cut lengths steadily increased at our site, likely due to ongoing sintering and strengthening in the collapsed weak layer. By the end of day two, we were no longer able to initiate propagation, suggesting substantial stabilization of the weak layer. Our results support prior findings and observations suggesting that slopes may remain capable of producing avalanches immediately after a collapse but likely stabilize over the next day or two. Although this research does not provide answers about precisely when a slope becomes stable after a collapse, it does highlight uncertainties in our understanding and interpretation of the stability of slopes that have whumped.

Montana↗

USGS2026

Tracking water in snow: Bridging sensor and and model simulations

Forecasting wet slab avalanches remains one of the most demanding challenges in operational avalanche forecasting. A key obstacle is the difficulty of observing and quantifying liquid water content (LWC) and tracking its infiltration into the snowpack. Field measurements are labor-intensive, highly variable in space, and often influenced by user application or sensor design — making them impractical for forecasting operations. In this study, we evaluated LWC measurements obtained from two capacitive sensors, the SLF SnowPro-17 and -25, and compared them with simulations from the snow cover model SNOWPACK. We analyzed five selected days with pronounced melt events during spring 2025 at Bridger Bowl Ski Area, Montana. The SnowPro-17 measured LWC on the sidewall and the SnowPro-25 was inserted into the pit wall. We then analyzed measurements from the two sensors to assess consistency and potential bias. For each of the five days, we also analyzed liquid water infiltration by layer, comparing field measurements with model-simulated LWC. This allowed us to assess how well the model captured both the timing and magnitude of infiltration processes relative to in-situ observations. Our results show that, the absolute LWC values differ by approximately 1% by vol. on average between measurements from the capacitive sensors, but the timing of liquid water infiltration is largely consistent across both measurements and model simulations. Within our sample, the SnowPro-17 consistently reports higher mean LWC values than the SnowPro-25, and exhibits greater variability, indicated by a larger standard deviation. We found good agreement when we compared in-situ sensor measurements to LWC infiltration in snow cover model simulations. This suggests that, despite measurement challenges and sensor variability, SNOWPACK can provide valuable information on the timing of LWC infiltration. For practitioners, this work highlights that reliable forecasting of wet slab avalanches depends on understanding when and how liquid water reaches critical layers. Because direct LWC measurements are rarely feasible in operational settings, using physically based models may offer a practical pathway forward.

Montana↗