Geology topics

Ana Maria Garcia

Publications and source records attributed to Ana Maria Garcia.

13 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2023

Simulation of future streamflow and irrigation demand based on climate and urban growth projections in the Cape Fear and Pee Dee River Basins, North Carolina and South Carolina, 2055–65

Water resources in the coastal region of North Carolina and South Carolina (Coastal Carolinas) are currently under stress from competing ecological and societal needs. Projected changes in climate and population are expected to place even more stress on water resources in the region. The Coastal Carolinas Focus Area Study was initiated by the U.S. Geological Survey Water Availability and Use Science Program’s National Water Census to investigate these stressors and their effects on water resources for the Coastal Carolinas. As part of that study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to investigate future streamflow and irrigation demand under six scenarios for the Cape Fear and Pee Dee River Basins, which flow through the Coastal Carolinas and into the Atlantic Ocean. For each river basin, historical (2000 through 2014) Soil and Water Assessment Tool models were minimally calibrated, and future (2055 through 2065) scenario models were developed based on three alternative global climate models, two alternative urban growth projections, and water-use projections that correspond to each global climate model and urban growth projection pair. The river basins were delineated into 2,928 and 5,678 subbasins for the Cape Fear and Pee Dee, respectively, each approximately 2.6 square miles (mi 2 ) in size. The best available water-use and wastewater discharge data were used for historical model calibration. The models simulated monthly mean streamflow with median Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values of 0.53 (n = 36) and 0.61 (n = 33) in the Cape Fear and Pee Dee River Basins, respectively. Average percent bias was −4.8 percent for the Cape Fear River Basin and −1.2 percent for the Pee Dee River Basin. Catchments for streamgages chosen for model calibration that were small (less than 100 mi 2 ) to medium (100–1,000 mi 2 ) in area tended to perform better than larger catchments (greater than 1,000 mi 2 ). Historical models were used to develop future model scenarios by replacing historical weather, land-use, and water-use input datasets with projected datasets. One small, gaged catchment was selected to illustrate how the models can be used to evaluate the relative differences in simulated streamflow resulting from alternative global climate models and urban growth projections. For the selected catchment, future climate projections had a much greater influence on simulated streamflow than urban growth projections. Simulated cumulative monthly mean streamflow results for this catchment differed by 26 percent under alternative global climate models and differed by 2.4 percent under alternative urban growth projections. Irrigation demand was modeled for subbasins with cropland. Simulated differences in irrigation demand were more pronounced and widespread across the model domain under the alternative future climate scenarios compared to alternative urban growth scenarios. The calibrated and future scenario models have the capability to run on a daily time step and simulate streamflow and irrigation demand for thousands of small subbasins in the Cape Fear and Pee Dee River Basins. The models and underlying datasets enable future analyses for large and small areas within the basins.

North Carolina, South Carolina↗

USGS2023

Value-aligned planning objectives for restoring North Carolina aquatic resources

Rapid population growth and development in the southeastern United States have resulted in substantial impairment to freshwater aquatic ecosystems. National or regional restoration policies strive to address impaired ecosystems but can suffer from inconsistent and opaque processes. The Clean Water Act, for example, establishes reallocation mechanisms to transfer ecosystem services from sites of disturbance to compensation sites to offset aquatic resource functions that are unavoidably lost through land development. However, planning for the prioritization of compensatory mitigation areas is often hampered by unstructured decision-making processes that are narrowly framed because they are not co-produced with stakeholders affected by, or having an interest in, the impacts and mitigation. This summary report represents the collaborative efforts of the U.S. Geological Survey and the North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality, Division of Mitigation Services, to co-develop an applied decision framework following the principles of structured decision-making for prioritizing watershed catchments by their potential for realizing a range of beneficial outcomes from future mitigation projects. The framework focuses on supporting the State’s nationally recognized stream and wetlands compensatory mitigation program by clarifying a discrete decision problem and specifying agency and stakeholder values to formulate fundamental and means objectives for prioritizing restoration sites. The co-development of this decision framework resulted in a number of useful insights from the perspective of the decision maker, including recognition (1) that the problem is a multi-objective decision driven by values beyond restoring lost functionality of ecosystems (that is, biogeophysical goals), (2) that the decision comprises a linked and sequential planning-to-implementation process, and (3) that future risk associated with land-use and climate change must be considered. The outcomes of this collaboration can serve as a systematic and transparent framework to prioritize a wide range of restoration, conservation, and resource-allocation activities in similar environmental contexts across the Nation.

North Carolina↗

USGS2022

Integrating principles and tools of decision science into value-driven watershed planning for compensatory mitigation

Several environmental policies strive to restore impaired ecosystems and could benefit from a consistent and transparent process — co-developed with key stakeholders — to prioritize impaired ecosystems for restoration activities. The Clean Water Act, for example, establishes reallocation mechanisms to transfer ecosystem services from sites of disturbance to compensation sites to offset aquatic resource functions that are unavoidably lost through land development. However, planning for the prioritization of compensatory mitigation areas is often hampered by decision-making processes that fall into a myopic decision frame because they are not co-produced with stakeholders. In this study, we partnered with domain experts from the North Carolina Division of Mitigation Services (NCDMS) to co-develop a real-world decision framework to prioritize catchments by potential for the development of mitigation projects following principles of a structured decision-making process and knowledge co-production. Following an iterative decision analysis cycle, domain experts revised foundational components of the decision framework and progressively added complexity and realism as they gained additional insights or more information became available. Through the course of facilitated in-person and remote interactions, the co-development of a decision framework produced three main ‘breakthroughs’ from the perspective of the stakeholder group: a) recognition of the problem as a multi-objective decision driven by several values in addition to biogeophysical goals (e.g., functional uplift; restoring or enhancing lost functionality of ecosystems), b) that the decision comprises a linked and sequential planning-to-implementation process, and c) future risk associated with land-use and climate change must be considered. We also present an interactive tool for ‘on-the-fly’ assessment of alternatives and tradeoff analysis, allowing domain experts to quickly test, react to, and revise prioritization strategies. The decision framework described in this study is not limited to the prioritization of compensatory mitigation activities across North Carolina, but rather serves as a framework to prioritize a wide range of restoration, conservation, and resource allocation activities in similar environmental contexts across the nation.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2021

Nitrogen in the Chesapeake Bay watershed—A century of change, 1950–2050

Foreword Sustaining the quality of the Nation’s water resources and the health of our diverse ecosystems depends on the availability of sound water-resources data and information to develop effective, science-based policies. Effective management of water resources also brings more certainty and efficiency to important economic sectors. Taken together, these actions lead to immediate and long-term economic, social, and environmental benefits that will make a difference to the lives of the almost 400 million people projected to live in the United States by 2050. The Chesapeake Bay is the largest and most productive estuary in the United States and is a vital environmental and economic resource. Approximately half of the water volume of the Chesapeake Bay originates from streams and rivers that drain the 64,243 mi 2 Chesapeake Bay watershed. The Bay and its tributaries have been degraded by excessive nutrients, such as nitrogen, from contributing watersheds. Inputs of nitrogen to the Bay lead to increased algal growth, decreased dissolved oxygen, and declining fisheries. In 2000, the Chesapeake Bay was listed as impaired under the Clean Water Act and Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDLs) for nutrients and sediment have been established to assist with management actions aimed at nutrient reductions. Effective nutrient management requires an understanding of past, present, and future nutrient sources, fate, and transport in the watershed. The Chesapeake Bay community has been a pioneer in science, management, and regulation to improve water quality. Factors like climate, hydrology, source inputs, and management controls play a vital role in determining the delivery and magnitude of nitrogen inputs to the Bay. Science in the form of monitoring data, predictive tools, and interpretive reports can help inform decisions to better balance the use and control of nitrogen in coastal areas. The findings in this report can contribute to effective management of the Bay and its watershed by providing a synthesis of the understanding of how human activities and environmental change in the watershed in the past, present, and future will influence the export of nitrogen to the Bay. We hope this publication will provide you with insights and information to meet your water resource needs and will foster increased civilian awareness and involvement in the protection and restoration of our Nation’s waters. The information in this report is intended primarily for those interested or involved in resource management and protection, conservation, regulation, and policymaking at the regional and national levels.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗

USGS2021

Quantifying regional effects of best management practices on nutrient losses from agricultural lands

Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) losses from agricultural areas have degraded the water quality of downstream rivers, lakes, and oceans. As a result, investment in the adoption of agricultural best management practices (BMPs) has grown, but assessments of their effectiveness at large spatial scales have lagged. This study applies regional Spatially Referenced Regression On Watershed-attributes (SPARROW) models developed for the Midwest, Northeast, and Southeast United States to quantify potential regional effects of BMPs on nutrient losses from agricultural lands. These models were used because they account for specific BMPs in the prediction of instream nutrient loads. The BMPs included in the models were cover crops, no-till, and conservation tillage. Sensitivity testing for the BMPs on agricultural nutrient loads was done using simulations that varied the intensity of BMPs specified in each region. When the BMP intensity was increased 50% relative to the 2012 intensity, the predicted agricultural load of total P decreased across all regions (4% to 14%). The predicted reduction in average P yields in the Midwest, Northeast, and Southeast was 706, 544, and 26 kg km–2, respectively. Increasing BMPs by 50% decreased predicted agricultural total N loads by 3.5% in the Southeast but increased predicted N loads in the Midwest and Northeast by 4.7% and 1.8%, respectively. Model-predicted average N yields increased by 402 kg km–2 and 302 kg km–2 in the Midwest and Northeast, respectively, and decreased in the Southeast by 329 kg km–2. In model simulations, cover crops were more effective at reducing N and P loads than the tillage BMPs despite lower intensity of implementation in 2012. However, at the regional scale of this investigation, implementation of BMPs result in only moderate predicted effects on agricultural nutrient loads

Journal of Soil and Water Conservation↗

USGS2020

Forecasting water demand across a rapidly urbanizing region

Urban growth and climate change together complicate planning efforts meant to adapt to increasingly scarce water supplies. Several studies have independently examined the impacts of urban planning and climate change on water demand, but little attention has been given to their combined impact. Here we forecast urban water demand using a Geographically Weighted Regression model informed by socio-economic, environmental and landscape pattern metrics. The purpose of our study is to evaluate how future scenarios of population densities and climate warming will jointly affect water demand across two rapidly growing U.S. states (North Carolina and South Carolina). Our forecasts indicate that regional water demand by 2065 will increase by 37%–383% relative to the baseline in 2010, across all scenarios of change. Our results show future water demand will increase under rising temperatures, but could be ameliorated by policies that promote higher density development and urban infill. These water-efficient land use policies show a 5% regional reduction in water demand and up to 25% reduction locally for counties with the highest expected population growth by 2065. For rural counties experiencing depopulation, the land use policies we considered are insufficient to significantly reduce water demand. For expanding communities seeking to increase their adaptive capacity to changing socio-environmental conditions, our framework can assist in developing sustainable solutions.

North Carolina, South Carolina↗

USGS2016

Regional effects of agricultural conservation practices on nutrient transport in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

Despite progress in the implementation of conservation practices, related improvements in water quality have been challenging to measure in larger river systems. In this paper we quantify these downstream effects by applying the empirical U.S. Geological Survey water-quality model SPARROW to investigate whether spatial differences in conservation intensity were statistically correlated with variations in nutrient loads. In contrast to other forms of water quality data analysis, the application of SPARROW controls for confounding factors such as hydrologic variability, multiple sources and environmental processes. A measure of conservation intensity was derived from the USDA-CEAP regional assessment of the Upper Mississippi River and used as an explanatory variable in a model of the Upper Midwest. The spatial pattern of conservation intensity was negatively correlated ( p = 0.003) with the total nitrogen loads in streams in the basin. Total phosphorus loads were weakly negatively correlated with conservation ( p = 0.25). Regional nitrogen reductions were estimated to range from 5 to 34% and phosphorus reductions from 1 to 10% in major river basins of the Upper Mississippi region. The statistical associations between conservation and nutrient loads are consistent with hydrological and biogeochemical processes such as denitrification. The results provide empirical evidence at the regional scale that conservation practices have had a larger statistically detectable effect on nitrogen than on phosphorus loadings in streams and rivers of the Upper Mississippi Basin.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2016

Application of SPARROW modeling to understanding contaminant fate and transport from uplands to streams

Understanding spatial variability in contaminant fate and transport is critical to efficient regional water-quality restoration. An approach to capitalize on previously calibrated spatially referenced regression (SPARROW) models to improve the understanding of contaminant fate and transport was developed and applied to the case of nitrogen in the 166,000 km 2 Chesapeake Bay watershed. A continuous function of four hydrogeologic, soil, and other landscape properties significant ( α = 0.10) to nitrogen transport from uplands to streams was evaluated and compared among each of the more than 80,000 individual catchments (mean area, 2.1 km 2 ) in the watershed. Budgets (including inputs, losses or net change in storage in uplands and stream corridors, and delivery to tidal waters) were also estimated for nitrogen applied to these catchments from selected upland sources. Most (81%) of such inputs are removed, retained, or otherwise processed in uplands rather than transported to surface waters. Combining SPARROW results with previous budget estimates suggests 55% of this processing is attributable to denitrification, 23% to crop or timber harvest, and 6% to volatilization. Remaining upland inputs represent a net annual increase in landscape storage in soils or biomass exceeding 10 kg per hectare in some areas. Such insights are important for planning watershed restoration and for improving future watershed models.

JAWRA↗

USGS2013

Simulating stream transport of nutrients in the eastern United States, 2002, using a spatially-referenced regression model and 1:100,000-scale hydrography

Existing Spatially Referenced Regression on Watershed attributes (SPARROW) nutrient models for the northeastern and southeastern regions of the United States were recalibrated to achieve a hydrographically consistent model with which to assess nutrient sources and stream transport and investigate specific management questions about the effects of wetlands and atmospheric deposition on nutrient transport. Recalibrated nitrogen models for the northeast and southeast were sufficiently similar to be merged into a single nitrogen model for the eastern United States. The atmospheric deposition source in the nitrogen model has been improved to account for individual components of atmospheric input, derived from emissions from agricultural manure, agricultural livestock, vehicles, power plants, other industry, and background sources. This accounting makes it possible to simulate the effects of altering an individual component of atmospheric deposition, such as nitrate emissions from vehicles or power plants. Regional differences in transport of phosphorus through wetlands and reservoirs were investigated and resulted in two distinct phosphorus models for the northeast and southeast. The recalibrated nitrogen and phosphorus models account explicitly for the influence of wetlands on regional-scale land-phase and aqueous-phase transport of nutrients and therefore allow comparison of the water-quality functions of different wetland systems over large spatial scales. Seven wetland systems were associated with enhanced transport of either nitrogen or phosphorus in streams, probably because of the export of dissolved organic nitrogen and bank erosion. Six wetland systems were associated with mitigating the delivery of either nitrogen or phosphorus to streams, probably because of sedimentation, phosphate sorption, and ground water infiltration.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2012

Effects of flood control and other reservoir operations on the water quality of the lower Roanoke River, North Carolina

The Roanoke River is an important natural resource for North Carolina, Virginia, and the Nation. Flood plains of the lower Roanoke River, which extend from Roanoke Rapids Dam to Batchelor Bay near Albemarle Sound, support a large and diverse population of nesting birds, waterfowl, freshwater and anadromous fish, and other wildlife, including threatened and endangered species. The flow regime of the lower Roanoke River is affected by a number of factors, including flood-management operations at the upstream John H. Kerr Dam and Reservoir. A three-dimensional, numerical water-quality model was developed to explore links between upstream flows and downstream water quality, specifically in-stream dissolved-oxygen dynamics. Calibration of the hydrodynamics and dissolved-oxygen concentrations emphasized the effect that flood-plain drainage has on water and oxygen levels, especially at locations more than 40 kilometers away from the Roanoke Rapids Dam. Model hydrodynamics were calibrated at three locations on the lower Roanoke River, yielding coefficients of determination between 0.5 and 0.9. Dissolved-oxygen concentrations were calibrated at the same sites, and coefficients of determination ranged between 0.6 and 0.8. The model has been used to quantify relations among river flow, flood-plain water level, and in-stream dissolved-oxygen concentrations in support of management of operations of the John H. Kerr Dam, which affects overall flows in the lower Roanoke River. Scenarios have been developed to mitigate the negative effects that timing, duration, and extent of flood-plain inundation may have on vegetation, wildlife, and fisheries in the lower Roanoke River corridor. Under specific scenarios, the model predicted that mean dissolved-oxygen concentrations could be increased by 15 percent by flow-release schedules that minimize the drainage of anoxic flood-plain waters. The model provides a tool for water-quality managers that can help identify options that improve water quality and protect the aquatic habitat of the Roanoke River.

North Carolina, Virginia↗

USGS2011

A regional modeling framework of phosphorus sources and transport in streams of the southeastern United States

We applied the SPARROW model to estimate phosphorus transport from catchments to stream reaches and subsequent delivery to major receiving water bodies in the Southeastern United States (U.S.). We show that six source variables and five land-to-water transport variables are significant ( p < 0.05) in explaining 67% of the variability in long-term log-transformed mean annual phosphorus yields. Three land-to-water variables are a subset of landscape characteristics that have been used as transport factors in phosphorus indices developed by state agencies and are identified through experimental research as influencing land-to-water phosphorus transport at field and plot scales. Two land-to-water variables – soil organic matter and soil pH – are associated with phosphorus sorption, a significant finding given that most state-developed phosphorus indices do not explicitly contain variables for sorption processes. Our findings for Southeastern U.S. streams emphasize the importance of accounting for phosphorus present in the soil profile to predict attainable instream water quality. Regional estimates of phosphorus associated with soil-parent rock were highly significant in explaining instream phosphorus yield variability. Model predictions associate 31% of phosphorus delivered to receiving water bodies to geology and the highest total phosphorus yields in the Southeast were catchments with already high background levels that have been impacted by human activity.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS2010

Mapping watershed potential to contribute phosphorus from geologic materials to receiving streams, southeastern United States

As part of the southeastern United States SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes) water-quality model implementation, the U.S. Geological Survey created a dataset to characterize the contribution of phosphorus to streams from weathering and erosion of surficial geologic materials. SPARROW provides estimates of total nitrogen and phosphorus loads in surface waters from point and nonpoint sources. The characterization of the contribution of phosphorus from geologic materials is important to help separate the effects of natural or background sources of phosphorus from anthropogenic sources of phosphorus, such as municipal wastewater or agricultural practices. The potential of a watershed to contribute phosphorus from naturally occurring geologic materials to streams was characterized by using geochemical data from bed-sediment samples collected from first-order streams in relatively undisturbed watersheds as part of the multiyear U.S. Geological Survey National Geochemical Survey. The spatial pattern of bed-sediment phosphorus concentration is offered as a tool to represent the best available information at the regional scale. One issue may weaken the use of bed-sediment phosphorus concentration as a surrogate for the potential for geologic materials in the watershed to contribute to instream levels of phosphorus-an unknown part of the variability in bed-sediment phosphorus concentration may be due to the rates of net deposition and processing of phosphorus in the streambed rather than to variability in the potential of the watershed's geologic materials to contribute phosphorus to the stream. Two additional datasets were created to represent the potential of a watershed to contribute phosphorus from geologic materials disturbed by mining activities from active mines and inactive mines.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, ↗

USGS2009

Simulation of Water Quality in the Tull Creek and West Neck Creek Watersheds, Currituck Sound Basin, North Carolina and Virginia

A study of the Currituck Sound was initiated in 2005 to evaluate the water chemistry of the Sound and assess the effectiveness of management strategies. As part of this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to simulate current sediment and nutrient loadings for two distinct watersheds in the Currituck Sound basin and to determine the consequences of different water-quality management scenarios. The watersheds studied were (1) Tull Creek watershed, which has extensive row-crop cultivation and artificial drainage, and (2) West Neck Creek watershed, which drains urban areas in and around Virginia Beach, Virginia. The model simulated monthly streamflows with Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficients of 0.83 and 0.76 for Tull Creek and West Neck Creek, respectively. The daily sediment concentration coefficient of determination was 0.19 for Tull Creek and 0.36 for West Neck Creek. The coefficient of determination for total nitrogen was 0.26 for both watersheds and for dissolved phosphorus was 0.4 for Tull Creek and 0.03 for West Neck Creek. The model was used to estimate current (2006-2007) sediment and nutrient yields for the two watersheds. Total suspended-solids yield was 56 percent lower in the urban watershed than in the agricultural watershed. Total nitrogen export was 45 percent lower, and total phosphorus was 43 percent lower in the urban watershed than in the agricultural watershed. A management scenario with filter strips bordering the main channels was simulated for Tull Creek. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool model estimated a total suspended-solids yield reduction of 54 percent and total nitrogen and total phosphorus reductions of 21 percent and 29 percent, respectively, for the Tull Creek watershed.

North Carolina, Virginia↗