Geology topics

Alexander Gershunov

Publications and source records attributed to Alexander Gershunov.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2024

Climate and weather drivers in southern California Santa Ana Wind and non-Santa Wind fires

Background. Autumn and winter Santa Ana Winds (SAW) are responsible for the largest and most destructive wildfires in southern California. Aims. 1) To contrast fires ignited on SAW days vs non-SAW days, 2) evaluate the predictive ability of the Canadian Fire Weather Index (CFWI) for these two fire types, and 3) determine climate and weather factors responsible for the largest wildfires. Methods. Cal Fire FRAP fire data were coupled with hourly climate data from 4 stations, and with regional indices of SAW wind speed, and with seasonal drought from the Palmer Drought Severity Index. Key results. Fires on non-SAW days were more numerous and burned more area, and were significant May to October. CFWI indices were tied to fire occurrence and size for both non-SAW and SAW days, and in the days following ignition. Multiple regression models for months with greatest area burned explained up to a quarter of variation in area burned. Conclusions. The drivers of fire size differ between non-SAW and SAW fires. The best predictor of fire size for non-SAW fires was drought during the prior five years, followed by current-year vapor pressure deficit. For SAW fires, wind speed followed by drought were most important.

California↗

USGS2023

Midwinter dry spells amplify post-fire snowpack decline

Increasing wildfire and declining snowpacks in mountain regions threaten water availability. We combine satellite-based fire detections with snow seasonality classifications to examine fire activity in California’s seasonal and ephemeral snow zones. We find a nearly tenfold increase in fire activity during 2020-2021 versus 2001-2019. Accumulation season broadband snow albedo declined 25-71% in two burned sites (2021 and 2022) as measured by in-situ data relative to un-burned conditions, with greater declines associated with increased burn severity. By enhancing snowpack susceptibility to melt, decreased snow albedo and canopy drove midwinter melt during a multi-week dry spell in 2022. Despite similar meteorological conditions in 2013 and 2022, which we link to persistent high pressure weather regimes, minimal melt occurred in 2013. Post-fire differences are confirmed with satellite measurements. With growing geographical overlap between wildfire and snow, our findings suggest California’s snowpack is increasingly vulnerable to the compounding effects of dry spells and wildfire.

California↗

USGS2022

Autumn precipitation: The competition with Santa Ana winds in determining fire outcomes in southern California

Background: California’s South Coast has experienced peak burned area in autumn. Following typically dry, warm summers, precipitation events and Santa Ana winds (SAWs) each occur with increasing frequency from autumn to winter and may affect fire outcomes. Aims: We investigate historical records to understand how these counteracting influences have affected fires. Methods: We defined autumn precipitation onset as the first 3 days when precipitation ≥8.5 mm, and assessed how onset timing and SAWs were associated with frequency of ≥100 ha fires and area burned during 1948–2018. Key results: Timing of autumn precipitation onset had negligible trend but varied considerably from year to year. A total of 90% of area burned in autumn through winter occurred from fires started before onset. Early onset autumns experienced considerably fewer fires and area burned than late onset autumns. SAWs were involved in many of the large fires before onset and nearly all of the lesser number after onset. Conclusions: Risk of large fires is reduced after autumn precipitation onset, but may resurge during SAWs, which provide high risk weather required to generate a large fire. Implications: During autumn before onset, and particularly during late onset autumns, high levels of preparation and vigilance are needed to avoid great fire impacts.

California↗

USGS2021

Ignitions explain more than climate or weather in driving Santa Ana Wind fires

Autumn and winter Santa Ana wind (SAW)–driven wildfires play a substantial role in area burned and societal losses in southern California. Temperature during the event and antecedent precipitation in the week or month prior play a minor role in determining area burned. Burning is dependent on wind intensity and number of human-ignited fires. Over 75% of all SAW events generate no fires; rather, fires during a SAW event are dependent on a fire being ignited. Models explained 40 to 50% of area burned, with number of ignitions being the strongest variable. One hundred percent of SAW fires were human caused, and in the past decade, powerline failures have been the dominant cause. Future fire losses can be reduced by greater emphasis on maintenance of utility lines and attention to planning urban growth in ways that reduce the potential for powerline ignitions.

California↗

USGS2014

The key role of dry days in changing regional climate and precipitation regimes

Future changes in the number of dry days per year can either reinforce or counteract projected increases in daily precipitation intensity as the climate warms. We analyze climate model projected changes in the number of dry days using 28 coupled global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, version 5 (CMIP5). We find that the Mediterranean Sea region, parts of Central and South America, and western Indonesia could experience up to 30 more dry days per year by the end of this century. We illustrate how changes in the number of dry days and the precipitation intensity on precipitating days combine to produce changes in annual precipitation, and show that over much of the subtropics the change in number of dry days dominates the annual changes in precipitation and accounts for a large part of the change in interannual precipitation variability.

Scientific Reports↗

USGS2013

Natural climate variability and teleconnections to precipitation over the Pacific-North American region in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models

Natural climate variability will continue to be an important aspect of future regional climate even in the midst of long-term secular changes. Consequently, the ability of climate models to simulate major natural modes of variability and their teleconnections provides important context for the interpretation and use of climate change projections. Comparisons reported here indicate that the CMIP5 generation of global climate models shows significant improvements in simulations of key Pacific climate mode and their teleconnections to North America compared to earlier CMIP3 simulations. The performance of 14 models with simulations in both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 archives are assessed using singular value decomposition analysis of simulated and observed winter Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and concurrent precipitation over the contiguous United States and northwestern Mexico. Most of the models reproduce basic features of the key natural mode and their teleconnections, albeit with notable regional deviations from observations in both SST and precipitation. Increasing horizontal resolution in the CMIP5 simulations is an important, but not a necessary, factor in the improvement from CMIP3 to CMIP5.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2006

Prediction of summer maximum and minimum temperature over the central and western United States: The roles of soil moisture and sea surface temperature

A statistical model based on canonical correlation analysis (CCA) was used to explore climatic associations and predictability of June–August (JJA) maximum and minimum surface air temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) as well as the frequency of Tmax daily extremes (Tmax90) in the central and western United States (west of 90°W). Explanatory variables are monthly and seasonal Pacific Ocean SST (PSST) and the Climate Division Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) during 1950–2001. Although there is a positive correlation between Tmax and Tmin, the two variables exhibit somewhat different patterns and dynamics. Both exhibit their lowest levels of variability in summer, but that of Tmax is greater than Tmin. The predictability of Tmax is mainly associated with local effects related to previous soil moisture conditions at short range (one month to one season), with PSST providing a secondary influence. Predictability of Tmin is more strongly influenced by large-scale (PSST) patterns, with PDSI acting as a short-range predictive influence. For both predictand variables (Tmax and Tmin), the PDSI influence falls off markedly at time leads beyond a few months, but a PSST influence remains for at least two seasons. The maximum predictive skill for JJA Tmin, Tmax, and Tmax90 is from May PSST and PDSI. Importantly, skills evaluated for various seasons and time leads undergo a seasonal cycle that has maximum levels in summer. At the seasonal time frame, summer Tmax prediction skills are greatest in the Midwest, northern and central California, Arizona, and Utah. Similar results were found for Tmax90. In contrast, Tmin skill is spread over most of the western region, except for clusters of low skill in the northern Midwest and southern Montana, Idaho, and northern Arizona.

Western United States↗

USGS2001

North Pacific decadal climate variability since 1661

Climate in the North Pacific and North American sectors has experienced interdecadal shifts during the twentieth century. A network of recently developed tree-ring chronologies for Southern and Baja California extends the instrumental record and reveals decadal-scale variability back to 1661. The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) is closely matched by the dominant mode of tree-ring variability that provides a preliminary view of multiannual climate fluctuations spanning the past four centuries. The reconstructed PDO index features a prominent bidecadal oscillation, whose amplitude weakened in the late l700s to mid-1800s. A comparison with proxy records of ENSO suggests that the greatest decadal-scale oscillations in Pacific climate between 1706 and 1977 occurred around 1750, 1905, and 1947.

Journal of Climate↗