Geology topics

Agus Budianto

Publications and source records attributed to Agus Budianto.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2019

Overview of the eruptions of Sinabung Volcano, 2010 and 2013-present, and details of the 2013 phreatomagmatic phase

A small phreatic eruption of Sinabung Volcano, North Sumatra on August 28, 2010, at 18:30 local time marked the first eruption in the past ~1200 years. The eruption took place from two small vents in the south crater area. Explosions and ash emissions from these vents generated multiple ash plumes that reached altitudes of up to 5 km during early- to mid-September. By the end of September, only low level steam plumes were visible and the alert level was reduced from Level 4 (highest) to Level 3. The 2010 eruption effectively ended at this time. Beginning two days after the initial 2010 eruption, activity of the eruption has been monitoring continuously by a telemetered seismic network surrounding the volcano and by remotely sensed observations. This monitoring system was supplemented with a near-field continuous GPS network, beginning in February 2011. Persistent fumarolic emissions continued for almost 3 years following the 2010 eruption, before a new eruption began on 15 September 2013. This eruption continues to the present. The ongoing eruption is divided into 5 major phases: 1) phreatomagmatic phase (July 2013 - 18 December 2013); 2) first dome and collapse phase with pyroclastic density currents (PDCs; block-and-ash flows and related surges) to south (18 December 2013 - 10 January 2014); 3) lava-flow and collapse phase (10 January 2014 - mid-September 2014); 4) second lava dome and collapse phase with PDCs to south (mid-September 2014 - July 2015); 5) lava dome collapse and ash explosion phase with PDCs to southeast and east (August 2015 - present). The volcano erupted intermittently during the early phreatomagmatic phase with small vertical ash explosions. Then the eruption became increasingly vigorous with more repetitive and intense vertical ash explosions during late October through November. The first small pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) began on November 1. These pyroclastic flows descended the southeastern flank to a distance of 2 km.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

USGS2019

Construction of probabilistic event trees for eruption forecasting at Sinabung volcano, Indonesia 2013–14

Eruptions of Sinabung volcano , Indonesia have been ongoing since 2013. Since that time, the character of eruptions has changed, from phreatic to phreatomagmatic to magmatic explosive eruptions, and from production of a lava dome that collapsed to a subsequent thick lava flow that slowly ceased to be active, and later, to a new lava dome. As the eruption progressed, event trees were constructed to forecast eruptive behavior six times, with forecast windows that ranged from 2 weeks to 1 year: November 7–10, December 12–14, and December 27, 2013; and January 9–10, May 13, and October 7, 2014. These event trees were successful in helping to frame the forecast scenarios, to collate current monitoring information, and to document outstanding questions and unknowns. The highest probability forecasts closely matched outcomes of eruption size (including extrusion of the first dome), production of pyroclastic density currents, and pyroclastic density current runout distances. Events assigned low probabilities also occurred, including total collapse of the lava dome in January 2014 and production of a small blast pyroclastic density current in February 2014.

Sinabung volcano↗

USGS2019

Monitoring, forecasting collapse events, and mapping pyroclastic deposits at Sinabung volcano with satellite imagery

During the ongoing (2013–present) eruption of Sinabung volcano, north Sumatra, we have routinely used a variety of satellite remote sensing data to observe and forecast lava dome and lava flow collapse events, to map the resulting pyroclastic deposits, and to estimate effusion rates. In this paper, we focus on the first two years of the current eruption (September 2013–December 2015), and we summarize major events in 2016. We divide the eruption into 5 major phases: 1) phreatomagmatic (July 2013–18 December 2013), 2) first dome growth and collapse (18 December 2013–10 January 2014), 3) lava-flow (10 January 2014–mid-September 2014), 4) second lava dome and collapse (mid-September 2014–July 2015), 5) lava dome collapse and ash explosion phase (August 2015–present). Throughout the eruption, remotely sensed information has been instrumental in assessing the stability of the lava dome and flow and to forecast collapse events that produce pyroclastic density currents (PDCs: block-and-ash flows, co-ignimbrite surges, and blasts). Forecasts based on remote sensing data in combination with seismic, geodetic and gas-monitoring data have also helped inform decisions related to alert levels and evacuations. Relatively unusual aspects of the Sinabung eruption include the transition from dome to flow morphology (phase 2 to phase 3 transition) and the frequent occurrence during phase 3 of collapses from the lava flow-front and flow-margins—collapses that produced extensive pyroclastic density currents. By analogy to the well-known “Merapi type” collapses and pyroclastic deposits, we propose that lava flow-front and flow-margin collapses with associated PDCs be known as “Sinabung type.” Although detailed study of deposits has not been possible due to continuing hazards, our observations suggest that the transition from lava dome to lava flow and the occurrence of flow-front and flow-margin collapses reflect a particular combination of lava viscosity and steepness of slope. Our observations also show clear evidence of at least one slope-parallel high-velocity and dilute PDC (a “blast”) that emanated from a lava-margin collapse site 500 m downslope from the vent. This 1 February 2014 blast downed and singed a forest out to at least 3.9 km from the collapse site and killed 16 people. We also use a combination of field and remotely sensed data to map the distribution of Sinabung deposits. We estimate eruptive volumes and extrusion rates by combining sequential measurements of lava surface and pyroclastic flow areas with thickness estimates derived from simple geometric assumptions, oblique photographs and Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) derived from remotely sensed data. Our estimates of short-term effusion rates vary widely on a daily to weekly basis, from <1 to >20 m 3 s −1 . In a few cases, periods of increased extrusion precede lava flow-front collapses by a few days to a week, suggesting delays in transmittance of effusion pulses as lava moves from vent to flow front. We find that, as of 1 January 2016, the total area of deposits is 10 7 m 2 , and their approximate deposit volume is about 0.3 km 3 , equivalent to 0.2 km 3 Dense Rock Equivalent (DRE). We anticipate that our deposit maps will be valuable in the future as a framework for the study of the magmatic and textural evolution of eruptive products through time.

Sinabung volcano↗