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Adam Sepulveda

Publications and source records attributed to Adam Sepulveda.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS2023

Toward a national eDNA strategy for the United States

Environmental DNA (eDNA) data make it possible to measure and monitor biodiversity at unprecedented resolution and scale. As use-cases multiply and scientific consensus grows regarding the value of eDNA analysis, public agencies have an opportunity to decide how and where eDNA data fit into their mandates. Within the United States, many federal and state agencies are individually using eDNA data in various applications and developing relevant scientific expertise. A national strategy for eDNA implementation would capitalize on recent scientific developments, providing a common set of next-generation tools for natural resource management and public health protection. Such a strategy would avoid patchwork and possibly inconsistent guidelines in different agencies, smoothing the way for efficient uptake of eDNA data in management. Because eDNA analysis is already in widespread use in both ocean and freshwater settings, we focus here on applications in these environments. However, we foresee the broad adoption of eDNA analysis to meet many resource management issues across the nation because the same tools have immediate terrestrial and aerial applications.

Environmental DNA↗
USGS2023

Can big data inform invasive dreissenid mussel risk assessments of habitat suitability?

Invasion risk assessments of habitat suitability provide insight on early detection effort allocation; however, sufficient data are rarely available to inform assessments. We explored tradeoffs of leveraging big data from the National Water Quality Portal (WQP), a standardized water quality database in the United States, to inform calcium- and pH-based risk assessments of invasive mussel ( Dreissena polymorpha and Dreissena rostriformis bugensis ) habitat suitability in the Pacific Northwest’s Columbia River Basin. We evaluated risk assessment sensitivity to alternative metrics of summarizing WQP data, tested if the large number of WQP observations resulted in accurate risk prediction of sites lacking WQP data, and characterized the spatial distribution of suitable habitat. Risk assessments were insensitive to how data were summarized at a site. Predictive accuracy was low when interpolating risk to sites lacking data. High-risk sites based on calcium clustered in two water basins, whereas high-risk sites based on pH were at similarly high frequencies. Finally, we found that data gaps still exist in the Columbia River Basin despite the large volumes of WQP data. We conclude that WQP-based risk assessments of habitat suitability could be considered as a starting place for estimating dreissenid invasion risk within an adaptive framework, rather than as a final solution.

Hydrobiologia↗
USGS2023

When are environmental DNA early detections of invasive species actionable?

Environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling provides sensitive early detection capabilities for recently introduced taxa. However, natural resource managers struggle with how to integrate eDNA results into an early detection rapid response program because positive eDNA detections are not always indicative of an eventual infestation. We used a structured decision making (SDM) framework to evaluate appropriate response actions to hypothetical eDNA early detections of an introduced aquatic plant in Sebago Lake (Maine, USA). The results were juxtaposed to a recent study that used a similar SDM approach to evaluate response actions to hypothetical eDNA early detections of introduced mussels in Jordanelle Reservoir (Utah, USA). We found that eDNA early detections were not actionable in Sebago Lake because the plant's invasion potential was spatially constrained and the current management activities provided acceptable levels of mitigation. In Jordanelle Reservoir, eDNA detections were actionable due to high invasion potential and analyses supported management actions to contain the invasion. The divergent outcomes of the two case studies are related to the unique attributes of the habitats and species, highlighting the utility of the SDM approach when considering an eDNA monitoring program. We use these two case studies to present a general SDM framework and a set of heuristics that can be efficiently applied to eDNA early detection rapid response scenarios and other instances associated with indeterminant eDNA detections, especially when there is an imperative to make decisions as quickly as possible.

Maine↗
USGS2023

Vital sign monitoring is good medicine for parks

Nearly 70 years ago a young ranger naturalist working in Yellowstone National Park (YNP), Frederick B. Turner, became fascinated with the abundance of frogs next to his cabin at “Soldier Creek” (known as Lodge Creek today). This interest blossomed into Turner’s PhD research and his publication in 1960 about the local population of Columbia spotted frogs (shown to right) became a classic for herpetologists. Unfortunately, the frog population Turner studied had a less positive future in store. Research by Idaho State University biologists in the 1990s revealed the Lodge Creek population had dwindled by 80%. Now, most of Turner’s study area is bereft of spotted frogs, and the remnant population near Yellowstone Lake is affected by a steep decline in reproduction and frequent disease outbreaks. Meanwhile, amphibian population declines documented worldwide, including in national parks of the western U.S., have become common. In YNP and neighboring Grand Teton National Park, we face the important questions of whether widespread amphibian declines are occurring here and if so, what do they portend. Can amphibians inform us about the health and changing conditions of wetlands in YNP? What are the implications of diminishing wetlands for other water-dependent species? And, more broadly, can amphibian and other living organisms serve as reliable indicators or vital signs for park health? In this issue of Yellowstone Science, we discuss how ecosystem science is taking cues from the medical field by relying on vital sign monitoring programs to assess ecosystem health.

Yellowstone Science↗
USGS2022

The importance of phenology and thermal exposure to early life history success of nonnative Smallmouth Bass in the Yellowstone River

Knowledge of potential spread by introduced species is critical to effective management and conservation. The Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu is an example of a fish that has been introduced globally, often spreads after introduction, and has substantial predatory impacts on fish assemblages. Nonnative Smallmouth Bass in the free-flowing Yellowstone River, Montana, have expanded from warmer, downstream sections of river into colder, upstream sections containing socio-economically valuable trout fisheries. We sought insight into mechanisms controlling upstream spread by evaluating whether progressively colder upstream climates physiologically constrained successful recruitment by limiting age-0 growth and preventing overwinter survival (i.e., population establishment). We documented the phenology, growth, and overwinter survival of age-0 Smallmouth Bass across a temperature gradient leading to their upstream extent in the Yellowstone River. The upstream extent of population establishment did not appear limited by water temperature alone. Age-0 body size at the onset of winter did not differ significantly between colder, upstream reaches and warmer, downstream reaches. Instead, the earlier hatch timing exhibited by some age-0 individuals in upstream sections allowed them to experience longer growing seasons than many individuals in downstream sections. This counter-intuitive hatching phenology mediated much of the expected decreases in growth in colder, upstream climates. Furthermore, evidence of successful overwinter survival and simulations of age-0 starvation mortality indicated that age-0 individuals at the upstream extent of their distribution successfully recruited to the age-1 year-class during four consecutive years. However, age-0 individuals were rare or absent throughout the uppermost upstream distribution of adults, suggesting that something other than temperature limits or discourages reproduction farther upstream. Taken together, our results suggest that Smallmouth Bass have not yet reached the thermal limit of their upstream distribution in the Yellowstone River and that future spread may challenge fisheries managers tasked with management of coldwater trout fisheries in this river.

Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2022

A framework to integrate innovations in invasion science for proactive management

Invasive alien species (IAS) are a rising threat to biodiversity, national security, and regional economies, with impacts in the hundreds of billions of U.S. dollars annually. Proactive or predictive approaches guided by scientific knowledge are essential to keeping pace with growing impacts of invasions under climate change. Although the rapid development of diverse technologies and approaches has produced tools with the potential to greatly accelerate invasion research and management, innovation has far outpaced implementation and coordination. Technological and methodological syntheses are urgently needed to close the growing implementation gap and facilitate interdisciplinary collaboration and synergy among evolving disciplines. A broad review is necessary to demonstrate the utility and relevance of work in diverse fields to generate actionable science for the ongoing invasion crisis. Here, we review such advances in relevant fields including remote sensing, epidemiology, big data analytics, environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling, genomics, and others, and present a generalized framework for distilling existing and emerging data into products for proactive IAS research and management. This integrated workflow provides a pathway for scientists and practitioners in diverse disciplines to contribute to applied invasion biology in a coordinated, synergistic, and scalable manner.

Biological Reviews↗
USGS2022

Using structured decision making to evaluate potential management responses to detection of dreissenid mussel (Dreissena spp.) environmental DNA

Environmental (e)DNA tools are sensitive and cost-effective for early detection of invasive species. However, the uncertainty associated with the interpretation of positive eDNA detections makes it challenging to determine appropriate natural resource management responses. Multiple sources of error can give rise to positive detections of eDNA in a sample when individuals of that species are not present at the site or a widespread infestation is not imminent. Acting on an erroneous eDNA inference could result in needless costs or reductions in desirable resources. Alternatively, failure to rapidly act on eDNA results that truly indicate invader presence could compound negative impacts and lead to high, long-term costs to manage infestations. We used a structured decision making (SDM) process, which incorporates tradeoffs and uncertainties, to evaluate appropriate response actions following hypothetical eDNA detections of invasive dreissenid mussel ( Dreissena spp.) eDNA in Jordanelle Reservoir, Utah (USA). We worked with decision-makers and stakeholders to identify objectives and discrete management action alternatives to assess consequences and tradeoffs. Alternatives ranged from no action to intensive and expensive control efforts. The best performing alternative was delayed containment described by immediate attempts to confirm the eDNA detections using non-molecular sampling techniques followed by mandatory watercraft exit inspections to prevent dreissenid mussel spread to regional water bodies. Non-molecular sampling increased public support for management by demonstrating a commitment to monitor the invasion state before action, whereas containment decreased likelihood of regional spread to other waters. Delayed containment had the lowest downside risk, and the highest upside gains relative to other alternative actions. Sensitivity analyses showed our results to be robust to parameter and outcome uncertainty.

Management of Biological Invasions↗
USGS2022

An initial assessment of plankton tow detection probabilities for dreissenid mussels in the western United States

Early detection of dreissenid mussels ( Dreissena polymorpha and D. rostriformis bugensis ) is crucial to mitigating the economic and environmental impacts of an infestation. Plankton tow sampling is a common method used for early detection of dreissenid mussels, but little is known about the sampling intensity required for a high probability of early detection using the method. We used implicit dynamic occupancy models to estimate plankton tow detection probabilities of dreissenid mussels from a long-term data set containing plankton tow samples collected across central and western United States. We fit models using a) the entire data set, including water bodies with unknown occupancy status in addition to heavily infested water bodies, b) a data subset that included water bodies with paired water temperature data, and c) a data subset that included water bodies with lower dreissenid densities. For the entire data set, we found that estimated detection probabilities varied by water body size and ranged from approximately 0.10 to 0.86. For the water temperature subset, we observed the same pattern between detection probability and water body size as we did for the full data but additionally found that the estimated detection probabilities were much higher when water temperatures were above 12 °C. For the lower dreissenid density subset, we found that the estimated probability of detecting dreissenid mussels with a single aggregated plankton tow sample was near zero. Given these estimates, we conclude that the number of aggregated plankton tow samples taken per water body in the data is far fewer than the number needed to ensure a high probability of detecting dreissenid mussels, especially if they are at low densities. We summarize the analyses with a discussion of plankton tow sampling protocol changes needed to improve estimates of dreissenid detection probabilities.

western United States↗
USGS2021

Time to get real with qPCR controls: The frequency of sample contamination and the informative power of negative controls in environmental DNA studies

Environmental (e)DNA methods have enabled rapid, sensitive and specific inferences of taxa presence throughout diverse fields of ecological study. However, use of eDNA results for decision-making has been impeded by uncertainties associated with false positive tests putatively caused by sporadic or systemic contamination. Sporadic contamination is a process that is inconsistent across samples and systemic contamination occurs consistently over a group of samples. Here, we used empirical data and laboratory experiments to (i) estimate the sporadic contamination rate for each stage of a common, targeted eDNA workflow employing best practice quality control measures under simulated conditions of rare and common target DNA presence, (ii) determine the rate at which negative controls (i.e., “blanks”) detect varying concentrations of systemic contamination, and (iii) estimate the effort that would be required to consistently detect sporadic and systemic contamination. Sporadic contamination rates were very low across all eDNA workflow steps, and, therefore, an intractably high number of negative controls (>100) would be required to determine occurrence of sporadic contamination with any certainty. Contrarily, detection of intentionally introduced systemic contamination was more consistent; therefore, very few negative controls (<5) would be needed to consistently alert to systemic contamination. These results have considerable implications to eDNA study design when resources for sample analyses are constrained.

Molecular Ecology Resources↗
USGS2021

Vulnerability of Pacific salmon to invasion of northern pike (Esox lucius) in Southcentral Alaska

The relentless role of invasive species in the extinction of native biota requires predictions of ecosystem vulnerability to inform proactive management strategies. The worldwide invasion and range expansion of predatory northern pike ( Esox lucius ) has been linked to the decline of native fishes and tools are needed to predict the vulnerability of habitats to invasion over broad geographic scales. To address this need, we coupled an intrinsic potential habitat modelling approach with a Bayesian network to evaluate the vulnerability of five culturally and economically vital species of Pacific salmon ( Oncorhynchus spp.) to invasion by northern pike. This study was conducted along 22,875 stream km in the Southcentral region of Alaska, USA. Pink salmon ( O . gorbuscha ) were the most vulnerable species, with 15.2% (2,458 km) of their calculated extent identified as “highly” vulnerable, followed closely by chum salmon ( O . keta , 14.8%; 2,557 km) and coho salmon ( O . kisutch , 14.7%; 2,536 km). Moreover, all five Pacific salmon species were highly vulnerable in 1,001 stream km of shared habitat. This simple to implement, adaptable, and cost-effective framework will allow prioritizing habitats for early detection and monitoring of invading northern pike.

Alaska↗
USGS2021

What do you mean by false positive?

Misunderstandings regarding the term “false positive” present a significant hurdle to broad adoption of eDNA monitoring methods. Here, we identify three challenges to clear communication of false-positive error between scientists, managers, and the public. The first arises from a failure to distinguish between false-positive eDNA detection at the sample level and false-positive inference of taxa presence at the site level. The second is based on the large proportion of false positives that may occur when true-positive detections are likely to be rare, even when rates of contamination or other error are low. And the third misunderstanding occurs when conventional species detection approaches, often based on direct capture, are used to confirm eDNA approaches without acknowledging or quantifying the conventional approach's detection probability. The solutions to these issues include careful and consistent communication of error definitions, managing expectations of error rates, and providing a balanced discussion not only of alternative sources of species DNA, but also of the detection limitations of conventional methods. We argue that the benefit of addressing these misunderstandings will be increased confidence in the utility of eDNA methods and, ultimately, improved resource management using eDNA approaches.

Environmental DNA↗
USGS2021

Effects of supplemental feeding on the fecal bacterial communities of Rocky Mountain elk in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Supplemental feeding of wildlife is a common practice often undertaken for recreational or management purposes, but it may have unintended consequences for animal health. Understanding cryptic effects of diet supplementation on the gut microbiomes of wild mammals is important to inform conservation and management strategies. Multiple laboratory studies have demonstrated the importance of the gut microbiome for extracting and synthesizing nutrients, modulating host immunity, and many other vital host functions, but these relationships can be disrupted by dietary perturbation. The well-described interplay between diet, the microbiome, and host health in laboratory and human systems highlights the need to understand the consequences of supplemental feeding on the microbiomes of free-ranging animal populations. This study describes changes to the gut microbiomes of wild elk under different supplemental feeding regimes. We demonstrated significant cross-sectional variation between elk at different feeding locations and identified several relatively low-abundance bacterial genera that differed between fed versus unfed groups. In addition, we followed four of these populations through mid-season changes in supplemental feeding regimes and demonstrated a significant shift in microbiome composition in a single population that changed from natural forage to supplementation with alfalfa pellets. Some of the taxonomic shifts in this population mirrored changes associated with ruminal acidosis in domestic livestock. We discerned no significant changes in the population that shifted from natural forage to hay supplementation, or in the populations that changed from one type of hay to another. Our results suggest that supplementation with alfalfa pellets alters the native gut microbiome of elk, with potential implications for population health.

Wyoming↗
USGS2021

Exploration of the 2016 Yellowstone River fish kill and proliferative kidney disease in wild fish populations

Proliferative kidney disease (PKD) is an emerging disease that recently resulted in a large mortality event of salmonids in the Yellowstone River (Montana, USA). Total PKD fish mortalities in the Yellowstone River were estimated in the tens of thousands, which resulted in a multi‐week river closure and an estimated economic loss of US$500,000. This event shocked scientists, managers, and the public, as this was the first occurrence of the disease in the Yellowstone River, the only reported occurrence of the disease in Montana in the past 25 yr, and arguably the largest wild PKD fish kill in the world. To understand why the Yellowstone River fish kill occurred, we used molecular and historical data to evaluate evidence for several hypotheses: Was the causative parasite Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae a novel invader, was the fish kill associated with a unique parasite strain, and/or was the outbreak caused by unprecedented environmental conditions? We found that T. bryosalmonae is widely distributed in Montana and have documented occurrence of this parasite in archived fish collected in the Yellowstone River prior to the fish kill. T. bryosalmonae had minimal phylogeographic population structure, as the DNA of parasites sampled from the Yellowstone River and distant water bodies were very similar. These results suggest that T. bryosalmonae could be endemic in Montana. Due to data limitations, we could not reject the hypothesis that the fish kill was caused by a novel and more virulent genetic strain of the parasite. Finally, we found that single‐year environmental conditions are insufficient to explain the cause of the 2016 Yellowstone River PKD outbreak. Other regional rivers where we documented T. bryosalmonae had similar or even more extreme conditions than the Yellowstone River and similar or more extreme conditions have occurred in the Yellowstone River in the recent past, yet mass PKD mortalities have not been documented in either instance. We conclude by placing these results and unresolved hypotheses into the broader context of international research on T. bryosalmonae and PKD, which strongly suggests that a better understanding of bryozoans, the primary host of T. bryosalmonae , is required for better ecosystem understanding.

Montana↗
USGS2021

Integrating environmental DNA results with diverse data sets to improve biosurveillance of river health

Autonomous, robotic environmental (e)DNA samplers now make it possible for biological observations to match the scale and quality of abiotic measurements collected by automated sensor networks. Merging these automated data streams may allow for improved insight into biotic responses to environmental change and stressors. Here, we merged eDNA data collected by robotic samplers installed at three U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages with gridded daily weather data, and daily water quality and quantity data into a cloud-hosted database. The eDNA targets were a rare fish parasite and a more common salmonid fish. We then used computationally expedient Bayesian hierarchical occupancy models to evaluate associations between abiotic conditions and eDNA detections and to simulate how uncertainty in result interpretation changes with the frequency of autonomous robotic eDNA sample collection. We developed scripts to automate data merging, cleaning and analysis steps into a chained-step, workflow. We found that inclusion of abiotic covariates only provided improved insight for the more common salmonid fish since its DNA was more frequently detected. Rare fish parasite DNA was infrequently detected, which caused occupancy parameter estimates and covariate associations to have high uncertainty. Our simulations found that collecting samples at least once per day resulted in more detections and less parameter uncertainty than less frequent sampling. Our occupancy and simulation results together demonstrate the advantages of robotic eDNA samplers and how these samples can be combined with easy to acquire, publicly available data to foster real-time biosurveillance and forecasting.

Idaho, Wyoming, Montana↗
USGS2021

It’s complicated…environmental DNA as a predictor of trout and char abundance in streams

The potential to provide inferences about fish abundance from environmental (e)DNA samples has generated great interest. However, the accuracy of these abundance estimates is often low and variable across species and space. A plausible refinement is the use of common aquatic habitat monitoring data to account for attributes that influence eDNA dynamics. We therefore evaluated the relationships between eDNA concentration and abundance of bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ), westslope cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi ) and rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) at 42 stream sites in the Intermountain West (USA and Canada) and tested whether accounting for site-specific habitat attributes improved the accuracy of fish abundance estimates. eDNA concentrations were positively associated with fish abundance, but these relationships varied by species and site, and there was still considerable variation unaccounted for. Random site-level differences explained much of this variation, but specific habitat attributes of those sites explained relatively small amounts of this variation. Our results underscore that either eDNA sampling or environmental characterization will require further refinement before eDNA can be used reliably to estimate fish abundance in streams.

Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2021

Strategic considerations for invasive species managers in the utilization of environmental DNA (eDNA): Steps for incorporating this powerful surveillance tool

Invasive species surveillance programs can utilize environmental DNA sampling and analysis to provide information on the presence of invasive species. Wider utilization of eDNA techniques for invasive species surveillance may be warranted. This paper covers topics directed towards invasive species managers and eDNA practitioners working at the intersection of eDNA techniques and invasive species surveillance. It provides background information on the utility of eDNA for invasive species management and points to various examples of its use across federal and international programs. It provides information on 1) why an invasive species manager should consider using eDNA, 2) deciding if eDNA can help with the manager’s surveillance needs, 3) important components to operational implementation, and 4) a high-level overview of the technical steps necessary for eDNA analysis. The goal of this paper is to assist invasive species managers in deciding if, when, and how to use eDNA for surveillance. If eDNA use is elected, the paper provides guidance on steps to ensure a clear understanding of the strengths and limitation of the methods and how results can be best utilized in the context of invasive species surveillance.

Management of Biological Invasions↗
USGS2021

A small proportion of breeders drive American bullfrog invasion of the Yellowstone River floodplain, Montana

The American bullfrog ( Lithobates catesbeianus ) is a non-native invader of aquatic habitats across the northwestern United States. It recently invaded the Yellowstone River, Montana, and has spread to over 140 km of floodplain habitat. We analyzed seven microsatellites in 528 tadpoles sampled across nearly the entire Yellowstone River invasion (about 140 river km) to characterize invasion genetics, compare our results with those of a recent mtDNA study ( Kamath et al. 2016 ), and to inform control efforts. Microsatellite variation supports the mtDNA-based hypothesis of at least two independent introductions to the floodplain from genetically divergent populations in the midwestern United States, followed by massive range expansion. One introduction is associated with the upstream extent of the invasion near Park City, Montana and the other more broadly with downstream populations. All sites were characterized by small effective numbers of breeders ( N b ; harmonic mean = 9.97), and therefore, a small proportion of highly successful adults may drive the invasion by producing large families. Microsatellites and mtDNA produced discordant estimates of genetic admixture between the upstream and downstream invasions, which may reflect small effective population size. Although we observed isolation by distance using both types of markers, microsatellites appear to reflect population structure resulting from secondary contact between the two introductions, as opposed to structure resulting from equilibrium between gene flow and genetic drift. Most sites showed evidence for genetic bottlenecks, which supports the recent history of invasion. Small N b paired with known high localized extinction rates following colonization suggests focused removal of post metamorphic life stages at sites less likely to go extinct on their own could help limit invasion by bullfrogs.

Montana↗