Geology topics

Abraham J. Padilla

Publications and source records attributed to Abraham J. Padilla.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

Understanding market sensitivity: Estimation of supply and demand elasticities for non-fuel minerals

In today’s rapidly changing economic landscape, understanding market responsiveness to price changes and the factors influencing commodity prices has become increasingly relevant. Price elasticities serve as indicators of how variations in market conditions affect supply and demand, providing insights into the sensitivity of commodity markets to price fluctuations. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of price elasticities of supply and demand for 74 non-fuel mineral commodities including precious metals, base metals, minor metals, and industrial minerals that are utilized across various industries. We employ various econometric techniques, including fixed effects models for panel data and two-stage dynamic ordinary least squares (2S-DOLS) alongside autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models for time series analysis, to derive robust estimates of price elasticities. Our findings reveal variability in elasticities among different commodities and indicate that all studied mineral commodities exhibit price inelastic supply and demand in the short run, which we define as one year for the purposes of our analysis, given that the data is all annual. This research provides original estimates of price responsiveness for a wide range of commodities that have not been previously addressed in the literature, thereby enhancing the understanding of market dynamics in the mineral sector. Given that price elasticities can be influenced by factors such as market structure, technological advancements, mining costs, and industry-specific demand drivers, we use variables that serve as proxies for these factors.

Mineral Economics↗

USGS2025

Methodology and technical input for the 2025 U.S. List of Critical Minerals—Assessing the potential effects of mineral commodity supply chain disruptions on the U.S. economy

The Secretary of the Interior, acting through the Director of the U.S. Geological Survey, is tasked by section 7002 (“Mineral Security”) of title VII (“Critical Minerals”) of the Energy Act of 2020 (Public Law 116–260, December 27, 2020, 116th Congress) with reviewing and revising the methodology used to evaluate mineral commodity supply risk and the U.S. List of Critical Minerals (LCM) no less than every 3 years. Following two previous LCM assessments, this analysis represents the latest technical input for evaluating each mineral commodity’s supply risk and determining their recommended status on the LCM. We evaluated mineral commodity supply risk using two criteria: (1) an economic effects assessment that quantified the potential effects of various trade disruption scenarios on the U.S. economy, and (2) an examination of whether the mineral commodity’s U.S. supply chain relied on a sole domestic producer that represented a single point of failure. For the first criterion, postdisruption equilibrium quantities and prices for each mineral commodity were calculated based on their price elasticities of supply and demand and the availability of excess production capacity for each yearlong foreign trade disruption scenario. Subsequently, a nonlinear optimization routine was used with detailed economic input-output tables to estimate the potential economic effects on the U.S. economy of over 1,200 scenarios for 84 mineral commodities. After accounting for the probability of each scenario’s occurrence, the overall results are presented in terms of changes in U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) by individual industry and the economy overall. The results, which ranged from a net decrease in U.S. GDP of nearly $4.5 billion to a net increase of $33 million, largely reflect U.S. import dependency and world production concentration. Using the Jenks natural breaks optimization method, a statistical classification technique, we categorized the mineral commodities into several classes based on this overall risk quantification. Mineral commodities with annualized probability-weighted net decreases in U.S. GDP greater than $2 million were recommended for inclusion on the LCM. If a mineral commodity did not meet the threshold for inclusion on the LCM under the first criterion, its domestic supply chain was examined under the second criterion, which recommended a mineral commodity for inclusion on the LCM if there was only a single domestic producer. Ultimately, the two criteria resulted in the recommendation of the addition of six mineral commodities (in descending risk order, potash, silicon, copper, silver, rhenium, and lead) to and the removal of two mineral commodities (arsenic and tellurium) from the LCM. By using an economic effects assessment, the results of this analysis provide a prioritization that can also be compared directly against other risk analyses and the cost of various risk mitigation strategies.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2024

Geospatial PDF map of the compilation of GIS data for the mineral industries and related infrastructure of Africa

Introduction In 2021, the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) National Minerals Information Center (NMIC) completed the project titled "Compilation of geospatial data for the mineral industries and related infrastructure of Africa." This project aimed to leverage the expertise and capabilities of the NMIC to collect, synthesize, and interpret geospatial data to inform on the extractive resources of the African region and expand the NMIC's understanding on the impact of mineral industry of African nations in the global economy. The African region, which comprises the independent nations that make up the African continent and its associated islands and dependencies, consists of a total of 58 mineral producing countries. The primary objective of this effort was to create a fully attributed Geographic Information System (GIS) portraying existing mining infrastructure, resources, and development capacity across Africa along with the related infrastructure capable of supporting current (for the reference year 2018) and future extractive industry operations in the region. The compiled GIS geodatabase with supporting documentation including comprehensive metadata was published as a USGS data release titled "Compilation of Geospatial Data (GIS) for the Mineral Industries and Related Infrastructure of Africa." This georeferenced portable document format (GeoPDF) map sheet presents a new geographic information product containing a partial representation of the GIS data. This GeoPDF map provides a visual comparison of the distribution of mineral industry and related infrastructure GIS data, which contributes to a deeper understanding of the intersections and complexities of the extractive industries within Africa.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2023

Rock-to-metal ratios of the rare earth elements

The relative quantities of ore mined and waste rock (i.e., overburden) removed to produce the rare earth elements—their rock-to-metal ratios—were calculated for 21 individual operations or regions covering nearly all mine production in 2018. The results indicate that the rock-to-metal ratios for the total rare earth elements ranged from a low of 1.6 × 10 1 to a high of 3.6 × 10 3 , with operations in Brazil and Russia having the lowest ratios and ion-adsorption clays operations in China and Myanmar having the highest. For comparison, the global average rock-to-metal ratio for the total rare earth elements (9.8 × 10 2 ) fell between that of cobalt (8.6 × 10 2 ) and tungsten (1.1 × 10 3 ). Driven by their relative abundance in the ore and unit prices that were used in the economic allocation of the environmental burdens, the global rock-to-metal ratio for individual rare earth elements was lowest for cerium (2.3 × 10 1 ) and lanthanum (7.7 × 10 1 ) and highest for dysprosium (1.7 × 10 4 ), terbium (3.7 × 10 4 ), and lutetium (6.4 × 10 4 ). Like the rock-to-metal ratios for the total rare earth elements, rock-to-metal ratios for individual rare earth elements varied by roughly two orders of magnitude among the various operations examined. An alternative perspective of only accounting for the overburden that is physically removed in ion-adsorption clays in-situ operations yielded global rock-to-metal ratios that were an order of magnitude lower or less for many of the rare earth elements.

Journal of Cleaner Production↗

USGS2023

Embedded critical material flow: The case of niobium, the United States, and China

Niobium, often classified as critical, is typically embedded within steels essential for infrastructure and transportation. Most niobium-consuming countries are import-dependent on primary stage niobium, meaning traditional material flow analysis, which often excludes critical commodities embedded within products of large-scale industries, would miss important flows in the fabrication and manufacturing stages and underestimate niobium consumption. This study presents the first dynamic (2000–2020) niobium flow analysis for two niobium-consuming, net import-dependent countries: the United States (U.S.) and China. Results demonstrate that the U.S. is import-dependent throughout all stages of the niobium flow cycle including embedded and primary flows, whereas China is only import-dependent on primary niobium. Moreover, while most U.S. imports of niobium embedded within (semi-)finished goods are consumed domestically, most niobium-containing goods manufactured in China are exported, suggesting a supply disruption would affect their economies differently. This research demonstrates the necessity of embedded flows for criticality assessments and evaluating supply restrictions.

Resources, Conservation & Recycling↗

USGS2022

Rock-to-metal ratio: A foundational metric for understanding mine wastes

The quantity of ore mined and waste rock (i.e., overburden or barren rock) removed to produce a refined unit of a mineral commodity, its rock-to-metal ratio (RMR), is an important metric for understanding mine wastes and environmental burdens. In this analysis, we provide a comprehensive examination of RMRs for 25 commodities for 2018. The results indicate significant variability across commodities. Precious metals like gold have RMRs in the range of 10 5 –10 6 , while iron ore and aluminum are on the order of 10 1 . The results also indicate significant variability across operations for a single commodity. The interquartile range of RMRs for individual cobalt operations, for example, varies from 465 to 2157, with a global RMR of 859. RMR variability is mainly driven by ore grades and revenue contribution. The total attributable ore mined and waste rock removed in the production of these 25 commodities sums to 37.6 billion metric tons, 83% of which is attributable to iron ore, copper, and gold. RMRs provide an additional dimension for evaluating the impact of materials and material choice trade-offs. The results can enhance life cycle inventories and be extended to evaluate areas of surface disturbances, mine tailings, energy requirements, and associated greenhouse gas emissions.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2022

Dynamic material flow analysis of tantalum in the United States from 2002 to 2020

Tantalum has received considerable attention due to risks associated with its supply chain. In 2020 ∼70% of global tantalum supply originated in Africa, with 40% produced in the Democratic Republic of Congo alone. The United States has relied entirely on imports since the 1950s. However, quantifying total domestic consumption is problematic because refined tantalum compounds do not have unique tariff codes resulting in significant trade volumes not properly documented. Furthermore, tantalum incorporated into finished goods is not tracked as tantalum. Thus, estimates only capture a fraction of total consumption. We performed a material flow analysis to quantify total domestic tantalum consumption from 2002 to 2020. Our results indicate that consumption may be up to 250% more than previously estimated. Our detailed results allow quantification of tantalum stocks in-use as well as coming out of use any year, providing valuable insight to industry and policymakers for addressing potential supply security issues.

Resources, Conservation & Recycling↗