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Geology topics

A.J. Michael

Publications and source records attributed to A.J. Michael.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2014

Operational earthquake forecasting can enhance earthquake preparedness

We cannot yet predict large earthquakes in the short term with much reliability and skill, but the strong clustering exhibited in seismic sequences tells us that earthquake probabilities are not constant in time; they generally rise and fall over periods of days to years in correlation with nearby seismic activity. Operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) is the dissemination of authoritative information about these time‐dependent probabilities to help communities prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes. The goal of OEF is to inform the decisions that people and organizations must continually make to mitigate seismic risk and prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes on time scales from days to decades. To fulfill this role, OEF must provide a complete description of the seismic hazard—ground‐motion exceedance probabilities as well as short‐term rupture probabilities—in concert with the long‐term forecasts of probabilistic seismic‐hazard analysis (PSHA).

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS2012

Three-dimensional velocity structure, seismicity, and fault structure in the Parkfield region, central California

This study examines the three-dimensional velocity structure in a 60- by 80-km region containing the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas fault. We use local earthquake and shot P arrival times in an iterative simultaneous inversion for velocity and hypocentral parameters. Using the three-dimensional model, we relocated 5251 events that occurred from 1969 to 1991, as well as the 1966 aftershocks, and computed 664 fault plane solutions. The San Andreas fault (SAF), characterized by a sharp across-fault velocity gradient, is the primary feature in the velocity solution. There is a 5–20% lateral change in velocity over a 4-km width, the contrast being sharper where there is better resolution. The model also shows significant variations in the velocity and in the complexity of the velocity patterns along the SAF. The largest across fault velocity difference is below Middle Mountain, where a large volume of low-velocity material impinges on the SAF from the northeast. This material is inferred to be overpressured and may be key to understanding the unusual behavior in the Parkfield preparation zone. A 20-km-long high-velocity slice is imaged northeast of the SAF near Gold Hill. Its along-fault length corresponds to the length of the maximum slip in 1966. The relocated seismicity shows that the San Andreas fault is a planar vertical fault zone at seismogenic depths. Ninety percent of the fault plane solutions that are on, or near, the SAF were right-lateral strike-slip on subvertical fault planes that parallel the SAF. Thus the surface fault complexities do not appear to extend to depth and therefore do not explain the rupture character at Parkfield. At Parkfield, variations in material properties play a key role in fault segmentation and deformation style. Our observations suggest that there may be a general relation between increasing velocity and increasing ability of the rocks to store strain energy and release it as brittle failure.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗
USGS2012

Use of focal mechanisms to determine stress: A control study.

To allow focal mechanisms to be inverted for the stress field requires a different inversion algorithm than for slickenside data because focal mechanisms do not represent fault slip data unless one can decide which nodal plane is the fault plane. If one can decide which nodal plane is the fault plane, then the focal mechanisms can be inverted with the slickenside inversion algorithm. This decision cannot always be made, so algorithms for inverting focal mechanisms for the stress field are studied. These algorithms either use both of the possible fault planes or attempt to choose the correct fault plane while determining the stress tensor. Simulated focal mechanisms are made from slickenside data and used to provide a control study for the focal mechanism inversion algorithms. The results of this control study show that focal mechanisms can be inverted to find the best stress tensor, but the resolution is decreased unless the fault planes can be picked a priori. The resolution can also be increased by including constraints on the magnitude of the tangential traction on the fault plane. Therefore, using focal mechanisms to study small variations in the stress field requires that other data (e.g., studies of the hypocenters, surface faulting, or structural information concerning the region) be introduced to pick which of the nodal planes is the fault plane. This study also introduces the method of bootstrap resampling to the statistics of this problem. The non-Gaussian nature of the data makes the nonparametric formulation of the bootstrap approach ideal for this problem.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗
USGS2012

Stress rotation during the Coalinga aftershock sequence

This study considers spatial and temporal changes of the stress regime during the 1983 Coalinga aftershock sequence. In both cases the observed changes manifest themselves as rotations of the most compressive stress axis. Inversion of 165 M ≥3 aftershocks shows that in the southern aftershock zone the azimuth of the most compressional stress axis is oriented 24°E of north, while in the northern and central zones it is oriented 51°E of north. Statistical analysis by use of non-parametric bootstrap resampling shows that this rotation is significant at above the 95% confidence level. Inverting the focal mechanisms of 122 M ≥3 aftershocks in the central and northern aftershock zones reveals a rotation of the principal stress axes during the first 500 days after the main shock. The compressional axis rotates from an azimuth of 62°E of north to 47°E of north. Statistical analysis by use of nonparametric bootstrap resampling shows that this rotation is just significantly different from zero at the 95% confidence level, subject to the assumption that 80% of the fault planes can be correctly picked from the two nodal planes. As the number of fault planes picked correctly varies from 50% (random choices) to 100% the significance of the rotation varies from 87% to 98%. Further investigation fails to find the signature of the stress changes predicted by dislocation theory in the focal mechanisms of the aftershocks. Active folds in the area suggest that the pre-main shock stress regime had a compressional axis with a NE-SW orientation. Thus the rotation during the aftershock sequence is thought to be a rebound from a stress anomaly induced by the main shock. This stress anomaly may be causally related to the occurrence of the aftershocks.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗
USGS2012

Spatial patterns of aftershocks of shallow focus earthquakes in California and implications for deep focus earthquakes

Previous workers have pioneered statistical techniques to study the spatial distribution of aftershocks with respect to the focal mechanism of the main shock. Application of these techniques to deep focus earthquakes failed to show clustering of aftershocks near the nodal planes of the main shocks. To better understand the behavior of these statistics, this study applies them to the aftershocks of six large shallow focus earthquakes in California (August 6, 1979, Coyote Lake; May 2, 1983, Coalinga; April 24, 1984, Morgan Hill; August 4, 1985, Kettleman Hills; July 8, 1986, North Palm Springs; and October 1, 1987, Whittier Narrows). The large number of aftershocks accurately located by dense local networks allows us to treat these aftershock sequences individually instead of combining them, as was done for the deep earthquakes. The results for individual sequences show significant clustering about the closest nodal plane and the strike direction for five of the sequences and about the presumed fault plane for all six sequences. This implies that the previously developed method does work properly. Nonrandom behavior was also found about the slip directions, the P axis, the T axis, and the B axis, but this is probably caused by the lack of independence between these axes and the previously mentioned features of the focal mechanisms. Given that the method does work and that deep aftershocks were not shown to cluster about the main shock nodal planes, the shallow focus data were used to simulate the deep focus study. The goal is to determine if there are artificial factors that make clustering in the deep focus data unobservable. To more closely mimic the work on deep earthquakes, the largest aftershocks from each of the six sequences were combined and studied with respect to their respective main shock focal mechanisms. This reduced the significance of the clustering about the focal mechanism parameters, but not below 95% confidence. Gaussian noise was then added to the aftershock hypocenters in order to determine if the larger hypocentral and focal mechanism errors in the deep focus data could account for the previous negative result. The conclusion is that the following reasons are sufficient to explain the lack of clustering about the main shock nodal planes for the deep focus aftershocks: the need to combine aftershocks from several sequences, the size of the hypocentral location and focal mechanism errors, and the alignment of distant aftershocks with the Wadati-Benioff zone.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗
USGS2011

Random variability explains apparent global clustering of large earthquakes

The occurrence of 5 Mw ≥ 8.5 earthquakes since 2004 has created a debate over whether or not we are in a global cluster of large earthquakes, temporarily raising risks above long-term levels. I use three classes of statistical tests to determine if the record of M ≥ 7 earthquakes since 1900 can reject a null hypothesis of independent random events with a constant rate plus localized aftershock sequences. The data cannot reject this null hypothesis. Thus, the temporal distribution of large global earthquakes is well-described by a random process, plus localized aftershocks, and apparent clustering is due to random variability. Therefore the risk of future events has not increased, except within ongoing aftershock sequences, and should be estimated from the longest possible record of events.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2008

Improved tests reveal that the accelarating moment release hypothesis is statistically insignificant

We test the hypothesis that accelerating moment release (AMR) is a precursor to large earthquakes, using data from California, Nevada, and Sumatra. Spurious cases of AMR can arise from data fitting because the time period, area, and sometimes magnitude range analyzed before each main shock are often optimized to produce the strongest AMR signal. Optimizing the search criteria can identify apparent AMR even if no robust signal exists. For both 1950-2006 California-Nevada M ??? 6.5 earthquakes and the 2004 M9.3 Sumatra earthquake, we can find two contradictory patterns in the pre-main shock earthquakes by data fitting: AMR and decelerating moment release. We compare the apparent AMR found in the real data to the apparent AMR found in four types of synthetic catalogs with no inherent AMR. When spatiotemporal clustering is included in the simulations, similar AMR signals are found by data fitting in both the real and synthetic data sets even though the synthetic data sets contain no real AMR. These tests demonstrate that apparent AMR may arise from a combination of data fitting and normal foreshock and aftershock activity. In principle, data-fitting artifacts could be avoided if the free parameters were determined from scaling relationships between the duration and spatial extent of the AMR pattern and the magnitude of the earthquake that follows it. However, we demonstrate that previously proposed scaling relationships are unstable, statistical artifacts caused by the use of a minimum magnitude for the earthquake catalog that scales with the main shock magnitude. Some recent AMR studies have used spatial regions based on hypothetical stress loading patterns, rather than circles, to select the data. We show that previous tests were biased and that unbiased tests do not find this change to the method to be an improvement. The use of declustered catalogs has also been proposed to eliminate the effect of clustering but we demonstrate that this does not increase the statistical significance of AMR. Given the ease with which data fitting can find desired patterns in seismicity, future studies of AMR-like observations must include complete tests against synthetic catalogs that include spatiotemporal clustering.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2007

Seismic velocity structure and seismotectonics of the eastern San Francisco Bay region, California

The Hayward Fault System is considered the most likely fault system in the San Francisco Bay Area, California, to produce a major earthquake in the next 30 years. To better understand this fault system, we use microseismicity to study its structure and kinematics. We present a new 3D seismic-velocity model for the eastern San Francisco Bay region, using microseismicity and controlled sources, which reveals a ∼10% velocity contrast across the Hayward fault in the upper 10 km, with higher velocity in the Franciscan Complex to the west relative to the Great Valley Sequence to the east. This contrast is imaged more sharply in our localized model than in previous regional-scale models. Thick Cenozoic sedimentary basins, such as the Livermore basin, which may experience particularly strong shaking during an earthquake, are imaged in the model.

California↗
USGS2006

Damped regional-scale stress inversions: Methodology and examples for southern California and the Coalinga aftershock sequence

We present a new focal mechanism stress inversion technique to produce regional-scale models of stress orientation containing the minimum complexity necessary to fit the data. Current practice is to divide a region into small subareas and to independently fit a stress tensor to the focal mechanisms of each subarea. This procedure may lead to apparent spatial variability that is actually an artifact of overfitting noisy data or nonuniquely fitting data that does not completely constrain the stress tensor. To remove these artifacts while retaining any stress variations that are strongly required by the data, we devise a damped inversion method to simultaneously invert for stress in all subareas while minimizing the difference in stress between adjacent subareas. This method is conceptually similar to other geophysical inverse techniques that incorporate damping, such as seismic tomography. In checkerboard tests, the damped inversion removes the stress rotation artifacts exhibited by an undamped inversion, while resolving sharper true stress rotations than a simple smoothed model or a moving-window inversion. We show an example of a spatially damped stress field for southern California. The methodology can also be used to study temporal stress changes, and an example for the Coalinga, California, aftershock sequence is shown. We recommend use of the damped inversion technique for any study examining spatial or temporal variations in the stress field.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2005

Viscoelasticity, postseismic slip, fault interactions, and the recurrence of large earthquakes

The Brownian Passage Time (BPT) model for earthquake recurrence is modified to include transient deformation due to either viscoelasticity or deep post seismic slip. Both of these processes act to increase the rate of loading on the seismogenic fault for some time after a large event. To approximate these effects, a decaying exponential term is added to the BPT model's uniform loading term. The resulting interevent time distributions remain approximately lognormal, but the balance between the level of noise (e.g., unknown fault interactions) and the coefficient of variability of the interevent time distribution changes depending on the shape of the loading function. For a given level of noise in the loading process, transient deformation has the effect of increasing the coefficient of variability of earthquake interevent times. Conversely, the level of noise needed to achieve a given level of variability is reduced when transient deformation is included. Using less noise would then increase the effect of known fault interactions modeled as stress or strain steps because they would be larger with respect to the noise. If we only seek to estimate the shape of the interevent time distribution from observed earthquake occurrences, then the use of a transient deformation model will not dramatically change the results of a probability study because a similar shaped distribution can be achieved with either uniform or transient loading functions. However, if the goal is to estimate earthquake probabilities based on our increasing understanding of the seismogenic process, including earthquake interactions, then including transient deformation is important to obtain accurate results. For example, a loading curve based on the 1906 earthquake, paleoseismic observations of prior events, and observations of recent deformation in the San Francisco Bay region produces a 40% greater variability in earthquake recurrence than a uniform loading model with the same noise level.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2004

Stress field variations in the Swiss Alps and the northern Alpine foreland derived from inversion of fault plane solutions

This study is devoted to a systematic analysis of the state of stress of the central European Alps and northern Alpine foreland in Switzerland based on focal mechanisms of 138 earthquakes with magnitudes between 1 and 5. The most robust feature of the results is that the azimuth of the minimum compressive stress, S 3 , is generally well constrained for all data subsets and always lies in the NE quadrant. However, within this quadrant, the orientation of S 3 changes systematically both along the structural strike of the Alpine chain and across it. The variation in stress along the mountain belt from NE to SW involves a progressive, counterclockwise rotation of S 3 and is most clear in the foreland, where it amounts to 45°–50°. This pattern of rotation is compatible with the disturbance to the stress field expected from the indentation of the Adriatic Block into the central European Plate, possibly together with buoyancy forces arising from the strongly arcuate structure of the Moho to the immediate west of our study area. Across the Alps, the variation in azimuth of S 3 is defined by a progressive, counterclockwise rotation of about 45° from the foreland in the north across the Helvetic domain to the Penninic nappes in the south and is accompanied by a change from a slight predominance of strike-slip mechanisms in the foreland to a strong predominance of normal faulting in the high parts of the Alps. The observed rotation can be explained by the perturbation of the large-scale regional stress by a local uniaxial deviatoric tension with a magnitude similar to that of the regional differential stress and with an orientation perpendicular to the strike of the Alpine belt. The tensile nature and orientation of this stress is consistent with the “spreading” stress expected from lateral density changes due to a crustal root beneath the Alps.

European Alps↗
USGS2003

A shallow fault-zone structure illuminated by trapped waves in the Karadere-Duzce branch of the North Anatolian Fault, western Turkey

We discuss the subsurface structure of the Karadere-Duzce branch of the North Anatolian Fault based on analysis of a large seismic data set recorded by a local PASSCAL network in the 6 months following the Mw = 7.4 1999 Izmit earthquake. Seismograms observed at stations located in the immediate vicinity of the rupture zone show motion amplification and long-period oscillations in both P- and S-wave trains that do not exist in nearby off-fault stations. Examination of thousands of waveforms reveals that these characteristics are commonly generated by events that are well outside the fault zone. The anomalous features in fault-zone seismograms produced by events not necessarily in the fault may be referred to generally as fault-zone-related site effects. The oscillatory shear wave trains after the direct S arrival in these seismograms are analysed as trapped waves propagating in a low-velocity fault-zone layer. The time difference between the S arrival and trapped waves group does not grow systematically with increasing source-receiver separation along the fault. These observations imply that the trapping of seismic energy in the Karadere-Duzce rupture zone is generated by a shallow fault-zone layer. Traveltime analysis and synthetic waveform modelling indicate that the depth of the trapping structure is approximately 3-4 km. The synthetic waveform modelling indicates further that the shallow trapping structure has effective waveguide properties consisting of thickness of the order of 100 m, a velocity decrease relative to the surrounding rock of approximately 50 per cent and an S-wave quality factor of 10-15. The results are supported by large 2-D and 3-D parameter space studies and are compatible with recent analyses of trapped waves in a number of other faults and rupture zones. The inferred shallow trapping structure is likely to be a common structural element of fault zones and may correspond to the top part of a flower-type structure. The motion amplification associated with fault-zone-related site effects increases the seismic shaking hazard near fault-zone structures. The effect may be significant since the volume of sources capable of generating motion amplification in shallow trapping structures is large.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2003

Quantitative analysis of seismic fault zone waves in the rupture zone of the 1992 Landers, California, earthquake: Evidence for a shallow trapping structure

We analyse quantitatively a waveform data set of 238 earthquakes recorded by a dense seismic array across and along the rupture zone of the 1992 Landers earthquake. A grid-search method with station delay corrections is used to locate events that do not have catalogue locations. The quality of fault zone trapped waves generated by each event is determined from the ratios of seismic energy in time windows corresponding to trapped waves and direct S waves at stations close to and off the fault zone. Approximately 70 per cent of the events with S-P times of less than 2 s, including many clearly off the fault, produce considerable trapped wave energy. This distribution is in marked contrast with previous claims that trapped waves are generated only by sources close to or inside the Landers rupture zone. The time difference between the S arrival and trapped waves group does not grow systematically with increasing hypocentral distance and depth. The dispersion measured from the trapped waves is weak. These results imply that the seismic trapping structure at the Landers rupture zone is shallow and does not extend continuously along-strike by more than a few kilometres. Synthetic waveform modelling indicates that the fault zone waveguide has depth of approximately 2-4 km, a width of approximately 200 m, an S-wave velocity reduction relative to the host rock of approximately 30-40 per cent and an S-wave attenuation coefficient of approximately 20-30. The fault zone waveguide north of the array appears to be shallower and weaker than that south of the array. The waveform modelling also indicates that the seismic trapping structure below the array is centred approximately 100 m east of the surface break.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2002

A preliminary study on fine structures of Jiashi earthquake region and earthquake generating fault

It is very unusual that nine large earthquakes of similar magnitudes (M = 6.1-6.8) occured within a very small area and a very short period of time (1997-1998) in Jiashi of Xinjiang Province, Northwest China. This paper analyzes the observed data of the aftershocks in the Jiashi earthquake region for studying the generating mechanism and deep structural background of the Jiashi strong earthquake swarm. The simultaneous inversion method was used to calculate the hypocenter positions and 3-D velocity structure of this region. The results show that the aftershocks concentrated in a NNE-trending belt, which roughly coincides with the NE-trending belt of the two strong earthquake belts. Velocity structure obtained from 3-D inversion suggests that there exist two low velocity zones, one trending NNE and the other NNW, below the depth of 12 km. These low velocity zones are almost consistent with the two strong earthquake belts. The preliminary results lead to the conclusion that the low velocity zones correspond to two deep crustal faults. At the time of our observation, microearthquakes took place on the NNE-trending fault, while the NNW-trending fault was relatively quiescent.

Acta Geophysica Sinica↗
USGS1999

Birth of a fault: Connecting the Kern County and Walker Pass, California, earthquakes

A band of seismicity transects the southern Sierra Nevada range between the northeastern end of the site of the 1952 M W (moment magnitude) 7.3 Kern County earthquake and the site of the 1946 M W 6.1 Walker Pass earthquake. Relocated earthquakes in this band, which lacks a surface expression, better delineate the northeast-trending seismic lineament and resolve complex structure near the Walker Pass mainshock. Left-lateral earthquake focal planes are rotated counterclockwise from the strike of the seismic lineament, consistent with slip on shear fractures such as those observed in the early stages of fault development in laboratory experiments. We interpret this seismic lineament as a previously unrecognized, incipient, currently blind, strike-slip fault, a unique example of a newly forming structure.

Geology↗
USGS1998

Seismotectonics of the Loma Prieta, California, region determined from three-dimensional Vp, Vp/Vs, and seismicity

Three-dimensional V p and V p / V s velocity models for the Loma Prieta region were developed from the inversion of local travel time data (21,925 P arrivals and 1,116 S arrivals) from earthquakes, refraction shots, and blasts recorded on 1700 stations from the Northern California Seismic Network and numerous portable seismograph deployments. The velocity and density models and microearthquake hypocenters reveal a complex structure that includes a San Andreas fault extending to the base of the seismogenic layer. A body with high V p extends the length of the rupture and fills the 5 km wide volume between the Loma Prieta mainshock rupture and the San Andreas and Sargent faults. We suggest that this body controls both the pattern of background seismicity on the San Andreas and Sargent faults and the extent of rupture during the mainshock, thus explaining how the background seismicity outlined the along-strike and depth extent of the mainshock rupture on a different fault plane 5 km away. New aftershock focal mechanisms, based on three-dimensional ray tracing through the velocity model, support a heterogeneous postseismic stress field and can not resolve a uniform fault normal compression. The subvertical (or steeply dipping) San Andreas fault and the fault surfaces that ruptured in the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake are both parts of the San Andreas fault zone and this section of the fault zone does not have a single type of characteristic event.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS1998

Seismicity alert probabilities at Parkfield, California, revisited

For a decade, the U.S. Geological Survey has used the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment scenario document to estimate the probability that earthquakes observed on the San Andreas fault near Parkfield will turn out to be foreshocks followed by the expected magnitude 6 mainshocks. During this time, we have learned much about the seismogenic process at Parkfield, about the long-term probability of the Parkfield mainshock, and about the estimation of these types of probabilities. The probabilities for potential foreshocks at Parkfield are reexamined and revised in light of these advances. As part of this process, we have confirmed both the rate of foreshocks before strike-slip earthquakes in the San Andreas physiographic province and the uniform distribution of foreshocks with magnitude proposed by earlier studies. Compared to the earlier assessment, these new estimates of the long-term probability of the Parkfield mainshock are lower, our estimate of the rate of background seismicity is higher, and we find that the assumption that foreshocks at Parkfield occur in a unique way is not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. While the exact numbers vary depending on the assumptions that are made, the new alert probabilities are lower than previously estimated. Considering the various assumptions and the statistical uncertainties in the input parameters, we also compute a plausible range for the probabilities. The range is large, partly due to the extra knowledge that exists for the Parkfield segment, making us question the usefulness of these numbers.

California↗