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USGS2023

Towards a better future for biodiversity and people: Modelling Nature Futures

The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a heuristic tool for co-creating positive futures for nature and people. It seeks to open up a diversity of futures through mainly three value perspectives on nature – Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, and Nature as Culture. This paper describes how the NFF can be applied in modelling to support decision-making. First, we describe key considerations for the NFF in developing qualitative and quantitative scenarios: i) multiple value perspectives on nature as a state space where pathways improving nature toward a frontier can be represented, ii) mutually reinforcing key feedbacks of social-ecological systems that are important for nature conservation and human wellbeing, iii) indicators of multiple knowledge systems describing the evolution of complex social-ecological dynamics. We then present three approaches to modelling Nature Futures scenarios in the review, screening, and design phases of policy processes. This paper seeks to facilitate the integration of relational values of nature in models and strengthen modelled linkages across biodiversity, nature’s contributions to people, and quality of life.

Global Environmental Change↗

USGS2018

A comparison of the chemical sensitivities between in vitro and in vivo propagated juvenile freshwater mussels: Implications for standard toxicity testing

Unionid mussels are ecologically important and are globally imperiled. Toxicants contribute to mussel declines, and toxicity tests using juvenile mussels—a sensitive life stage—are valuable in determining thresholds used to set water quality criteria. In vitro culture methods provide an efficient way to propagate juveniles for toxicity testing, but their relative chemical sensitivity compared with in vivo propagated juveniles is unknown. Current testing guidelines caution against using in vitro cultured juveniles until this sensitivity is described. Our objective was to evaluate the relative sensitivity of juvenile mussels produced from both in vitro and in vivo propagation methods to selected chemicals. We conducted 96-h acute toxicity tests according to ASTM International guidelines with 3 mussel species and 6 toxicants: chloride, nickel, ammonia, and 3 copper-based compounds. Statistically significant differences between in vitro and in vivo juvenile 96-h median effect concentrations were observed in 8 of 17 tests, and in vitro juveniles were more sensitive in 6 of the 8 significant differences. At 96 h, 4 of the 8 statistically different tests for a given chemical were within a factor of 2, which is the intralaboratory variation demonstrated in a recent evaluation of mussel toxicity tests. We found that although differences in chemical sensitivity exist between in vitro and in vivo propagated juvenile mussels, they are within normal toxicity test variation. Therefore, in vitro propagated juvenile mussels may be appropriate for use in ASTM International-based toxicity testing.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗