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A. Barka

Publications and source records attributed to A. Barka.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

Paleoseismic evidence of characteristic slip on the Western segment of the North Anatolian fault, Turkey

We have conducted a paleoseismic investigation of serial fault rupture at one site along the 110-km rupture of the North Anatolian fault that produced the M w 7.4 earthquake of 17 August 1999. The benefit of using a recent rupture to compare serial ruptures lies in the fact that the location, magnitude, and slip vector of the most recent event are all very well documented. We wished to determine whether or not the previous few ruptures of the fault were similar to the recent one. We chose a site at a step-over between two major strike-slip traces, where the principal fault is a normal fault. Our two excavations across the 1999 rupture reveal fluvial sands and gravels with two colluvial wedges related to previous earthquakes. Each wedge is about 0.8 m thick. Considering the processes of collapse and subsequent diffusion that are responsible for the formation of a colluvial wedge, we suggest that the two paleoscarps were similar in height to the 1999 scarp. This similarity supports the concept of characteristic slip, at least for this location along the fault. Accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) radiocarbon dates of 16 charcoal samples are consistent with the interpretation that these two paleoscarps formed during large historical events in 1509 and 1719. If this is correct, the most recent three ruptures at the site have occurred at 210- and 280-year intervals.

North Anatolian fault↗

The surface rupture and slip distribution of the 17 August 1999 Izmit earthquake (M 7.4), North Anatolian fault

The 17 August 1999 İzmit earthquake occurred on the northern strand of the North Anatolian fault zone. The earthquake is associated with a 145-km-long surface rupture that extends from southwest of Düzce in the east to west of Hersek delta in the west. Detailed mapping of the surface rupture shows that it consists of five segments separated by releasing step-overs; herein named the Hersek, Karamürsel-Gölcük, İzmit-Sapanca Lake, Sapanca-Akyazi, and Karadere segments from west to east, respectively. The Hersek segment, which cuts the tip of a large delta plain in the western end of the rupture zone, has an orientation of N80°. The N70°-80°E-trending Karamürsel-Gölcük segment extends along the linear southern coasts of the İzmit Gulf between Karamürsel and Gölcük and produced the 470-cm maximum displacement in Gölcük. The northwest-southeast-striking Gölcük normal fault between the Karamürsel-Gölcük and İzmit-Sapanca segments has 2.3-m maximum vertical displacement. The maximum dextral offset along the İzmit-Sapanca Lake segment was measured to be about 3.5 m, and its trend varies between N80°E and east-west. The Sapanca-Akyazi segment trends N75°-85°W and expresses a maximum displacement of 5.2 m. The Karadere segment trends N65°E and produced up to 1.5-m maximum displacement. The Karadere and Sapanca-Akyazi segments form fan-shape or splaying ruptures near their eastern ends where the displacement also diminished.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Heightened odds of large earthquakes near Istanbul: an interaction-based probability calculation

We calculate the probability of strong shaking in Istanbul, an urban center of 10 million people, from the description of earthquakes on the North Anatolian fault system in the Marmara Sea during the past 500 years and test the resulting catalog against the frequency of damage in Istanbul during the preceding millennium, departing from current practice, we include the time-dependent effect of stress transferred by the 1999 moment magnitude M = 7.4 Izmit earthquake to faults nearer to Istanbul. We find a 62 ± 15% probability (one standard deviation) of strong shaking during the next 30 years and 32 ± 12% during the next decade.

Science↗