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USGS2021

The making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18)

The NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected seas (NEAM). NEAMTHM18 was designed as a three-phase project. The first two phases were dedicated to the model development and hazard calculations, following a formalized decision-making process based on a multiple-expert protocol. The third phase was dedicated to documentation and dissemination. The hazard assessment workflow was structured in Steps and Levels. There are four Steps: Step-1) probabilistic earthquake model; Step-2) tsunami generation and modeling in deep water; Step-3) shoaling and inundation; Step-4) hazard aggregation and uncertainty quantification. Each Step includes a different number of Levels. Level-0 always describes the input data; the other Levels describe the intermediate results needed to proceed from one Step to another. Alternative datasets and models were considered in the implementation. The epistemic hazard uncertainty was quantified through an ensemble modeling technique accounting for alternative models’ weights and yielding a distribution of hazard curves represented by the mean and various percentiles. Hazard curves were calculated at 2,343 Points of Interest (POI) distributed at an average spacing of ∼20 km. Precalculated probability maps for five maximum inundation heights (MIH) and hazard intensity maps for five average return periods (ARP) were produced from hazard curves. In the entire NEAM Region, MIHs of several meters are rare but not impossible. Considering a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (ARP≈2,475 years), the POIs with MIH >5 m are fewer than 1% and are all in the Mediterranean on Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, and Greece coasts. In the North-East Atlantic, POIs with MIH >3 m are on the coasts of Mauritania and Gulf of Cadiz. Overall, 30% of the POIs have MIH >1 m. NEAMTHM18 results and documentation are available through the TSUMAPS-NEAM project website (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/), featuring an interactive web mapper. Although the NEAMTHM18 cannot substitute in-depth analyses at local scales, it represents the first action to start local and more detailed hazard and risk assessments and contributes to designing evacuation maps for tsunami early warning.

Frontiers in Earth Science↗

USGS1997

Crustal structure, evolution, and volcanic unrest of the Alban Hills, Central Italy

The Alban Hills, a Quaternary volcanic center lying west of the central Apennines, 15-25 km southeast of Rome, last erupted 19ka and has produced approximately 290 km3 of eruptive deposits since the inception of volcanism at 580 ka. Earthquakes of moderate intensity have been generated there at least since the Roman age. Modern observations show that intermittent periods of swarm activity originate primarily beneath the youngest features, the phreatomagmatic craters on the west side of the volcano. Results from seismic tomography allow identification of a low-velocity region, perhaps still hot or partially molten, more than 6 km beneath the youngest craters and a high-velocity region, probably a solidified magma body, beneath the older central volcanic construct. Thirty centimeters of uplift measured by releveling supports the contention that high levels of seismicity during the 1980s and 1990s resulted from accumulation of magma beneath these craters. The volume of magma accumulation and the amount of maximum uplift was probably at least 40 ?? 106 m3 and 40 cm, respectively. Comparison of newer levelings with those completed in 1891 and 1927 suggests earlier episodes of uplift. The magma chamber beneath the western Alban Hills is probably responsible for much of the past 200 ka of eruptive activity, is still receiving intermittent batches of magma, and is, therefore, continuing to generate modest levels of volcanic unrest. Bending of overburden is the most likely cause of the persistent earthquakes, which generally have hypocenters above the 6-km-deep top of the magma reservoir. In this view, the most recent uplift and seismicity are probably characteristic and not precursors of more intense activity.

Alban Hills↗